Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
 Share
Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

Recommended Posts

fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

Maximum points update (Us minimum):

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Everton 70

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Aston Villa 63

9) Leicester 63

Everton have to Play A.Villa...again After tonight

& West Ham...

 

fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, chapero82 said:

And Man City

If is about the Top 8 below Leicester who have to Play each other...

Our biggest Threat stays:-

Chelsea

L'pool

Spurs...

  • Thanks 1
Hitesh

Hitesh

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Everton have to Play A.Villa...again After tonight

& West Ham...

 

How has that happened where they play both games so close together?

Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Everton have to Play A.Villa...again After tonight

& West Ham...

 

 

It's irrelevant who has to play who, this is just about each individual team's potential points maximum.

 

Good to see Everton lose as they now need something extraordinary to get top four.

 

Maximum points update (Us minimum):

 

Chelsea 73

West Ham 70

--------------------------

Liverpool 69

Tottenham 68

Everton 67

Aston Villa 63

9) Leicester 63

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Popular Post
Vardinio'sCat

Vardinio'sCat

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

We look better when we aren't playing. Points on the board are a wonderful thing right now, even if it is squeaky bum time.

 

I think the pressure is really on for all the competing teams bar the Mancs.

  • Like 5
KansasFox

KansasFox

Posted
Posted

I still think the biggest threat is Liverpool, especially with there run in.  Tomorrow, we need them to lose!  I will not be confident till it is mathematically done.  With our last three games I still fear we may miss out... but then I've always been a pessimist! 

  • Like 1
SixtiesFox

SixtiesFox

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, KansasFox said:

I still think the biggest threat is Liverpool, especially with there run in.  Tomorrow, we need them to lose!  I will not be confident till it is mathematically done.  With our last three games I still fear we may miss out... but then I've always been a pessimist! 

Agreed. I think most of us share your fear about missing out, despite the statistical probabilities in our favour, simply because it happened to us last year.

Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

We look better when we aren't playing. Points on the board are a wonderful thing right now, even if it is squeaky bum time.

 

I think the pressure is really on for all the competing teams bar the Mancs.

 

That's so right.

 

If West Ham don't win and Liverpool get beat tomorrow then it will have been a good weekend for us.

 

 

  • Like 3
cruzFOX

cruzFOX

Posted
Posted

Manu look good at the moment. They will beat Liverpool or at the least draw. West ham could get beat by burnley or it’s another draw or they could win it. Don’t think all the results aere going to go our way (I hope they do). I hate this looking back over our shoulders stuff. 

Should have beaten Southampton and now have a desperate game again newcastle who won’t be easy.

  • Like 1
OhYesNdidi

OhYesNdidi

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, psychonaut said:

https://www.leaguetablecalculator.com

 

Permutations until your hearts content.

Decent little predictor.

 

We need a win out of the next four. I feel 68 will do it. We could sneak through on 67 maybe even 66 on goal difference. 

A win vs Newcastle & Southampton would have done it, going into those 3 games with no pressure, that’s why it’s so frustrating!

Edited by OhYesNdidi
  • Like 2
Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, KansasFox said:

I still think the biggest threat is Liverpool, especially with there run in.  Tomorrow, we need them to lose!  I will not be confident till it is mathematically done.  With our last three games I still fear we may miss out... but then I've always been a pessimist! 

If Liverpool lose tonight, we only need 1 win from 4 games and they can’t catch us. 
I think if Man Utd beat Liverpool and we beat Newcastle it’s job done and we can look forwards to the cup final.

Realistically: with West Hams injuries, they will drop 4 points between now and the end of the season. Both Everton and Spurs will drop some points at some stage, so, a Man Utd win tonight and we get the win against Newcastle.

  • Like 2
Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, psychonaut said:

https://www.leaguetablecalculator.com

 

Permutations until your hearts content.

Decent little predictor.

 

We need a win out of the next four. I feel 68 will do it. We could sneak through on 67 maybe even 66 on goal difference. 

I’ve got us 3rd and not much change to the table between now and the end of the season. I had us getting another 7 points - wins against Newcastle and Spurs, a draw against Man Utd and a defeat against Chelsea (we’ll take revenge in the cup final)

FDD9C302-B3E8-4656-B4FA-845A3C10B621.jpeg

OntarioFox

OntarioFox

Posted
Posted (edited)

So I think now is the time to start looking at Goal Difference as well as points on the board. With four games to go, it would require us to lose by multiple goals to at least two of our opponents to really put us at risk from certain teams - bear in mind we haven't lost by more than a two goal margin since Liverpool in November. As such, I've highlighted with an asterisk * the teams where I've added an extra point, because they are close to us and could get ahead if they go on a run while we drop points.

Leicester - Played 34, 63pts, GD +22

It's arbitrary, granted, but I'm treating a +8 GD lead as enough at this point to treat it as an extra point on the board. We'd have to drop a 2-goal swing in every remaining fixture to surrender that advantage - possible, but unlikely. Win even one more game and the GD gap becomes even tougher for rivals to bridge.

 

Points required to see off our rivals are as follows:

Chelsea - 11* (Played 34, 61pts, GD +22)

West Ham - 7 (Played 33, 55pts, GD +10)
Liverpool - 7* (Played 33, 54pts, GD +16)
Tottenham - 6* (Played 33, 53pts, GD +18)
Everton - 4 (Played 33, 52pts, GD +3)
Aston Villa - 0 (Played 33, 48pts, GD+10)

* Denotes teams with a higher possibility of superior goal difference.

Today's result at Goodison was excellent news for our final position as it puts Everton almost out of sight courtesy of their appalling goal difference. Villa can now be considered out of the chase, too - they could technically catch us, but only if we lose all four games and they win all five with a 12 goal swing. So I'm keeping them there on a pure technicality. Today effectively confirmed European football of some sort, which is still a great acheivement two years running, but a finish as low as seventh is still very much possible, and eighth if things really go tits-up.

 

The other caveat is of course that we still have Chelsea and Tottenham to play - both of which could effect a more profound GD swing in their favour with victory (or vice versa). But otherwise, practically none of the clubs involved in the hunt for 4th have to play each other again, with the exception of Everton having Villa again next week (what a weird season), and Chelsea also playing them on the final day. As such, there weren't really any considerations to make for games where one rival with genuine top 4 aspirations could take points off another, except for ones we're involved in. Makes the working out a little easier, albeit not in a good way as it means none of our rivals are gonna be cancelling each other out in the coming weeks.

One more win puts us in a very solid position, but I still maintain that we needed seven points from these last five going into Southampton, so we now two wins to be sure.

 

69 is the magic number. Nice. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Edited by OntarioFox
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
lcfcfoz

lcfcfoz

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

If Liverpool lose tonight, we only need 1 win from 4 games and they can’t catch us. 
I think if Man Utd beat Liverpool and we beat Newcastle it’s job done and we can look forwards to the cup final.

Realistically: with West Hams injuries, they will drop 4 points between now and the end of the season. Both Everton and Spurs will drop some points at some stage, so, a Man Utd win tonight and we get the win against Newcastle.

They could on goal difference still as would both end on 66 points. Would need a minimum of a 8 goal swing though assuming we win 1 more and lose 3. And they lose v man u but win last 3. And if they draw level on goal difference would need to score more than us, and we currently lead this by 9. (So a 9 goal swing in the last 3 likely) but if we were to lose the 3 and they won their 3, they would be down to 3. And they would be pushing to win every game by a high margine if this happens.

filthyfox

filthyfox

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, filthyfox said:

Top 4... now... no chance

Although.... having done the maths, and a pessimistic 4 points from our remaining games, I believe we will finish 4th on GD.

Which actually would be very Leicester

Edited by filthyfox
nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, lcfcfoz said:

Spurs are our main threat IMO, come on blades get something today

Realistically the only way Spurs finish above us is if they win their next five on the bounce.  Given only Man U and Man City have achieved that run of form at any point this seasoon, I think it unlikely.  Sure, they should win today, but they have some tough games coming up.

 

lcfcfoz

lcfcfoz

Posted
Posted

But they have to play us too which I dont like, assuming they beat us and win today they only need 3 wins, I'm worried we could go into the last game needing a draw which would be horrible

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...