2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Sunbury Fox]

Following the missed opportunity v Southampton, it's now likely we'll need at least a point in the last game v Spurs to get top 4. This is what I wanted to avoid being the case, as Spurs may also need points to get some sort of Euro spot and in any case Kane loves playing us. Squeaky bum time, it is.....

Edited 2 May 2021 by Sunbury Fox

[Reg Vardy]

Spurs play Leeds, Wolves Villa and us....12 points? Nah.....

[AS78UK]

OK, so I keep panicking that we have heaped a tonne of pressure on ourselves.   The predictor league didn't help, some how had us in 6th behind West Ham and Liverpool.   

 

But I am a pessimist at heart.  Ee have got to believe we can beat Newcastle ( if we don't God knows how we will all cope), and then our form against the big six will carry us over the line.  We play Man Utd n Chelsea both of whom have got additional european games. 

[Guest Danny Clender]

23 hours ago, KFS said:

Just did the predictor again. You know the teams around us basically rule themselves out with who they have to play and when? Beat Newcastle and it’s pretty much done.

I've done this a few times too, the same predictor you previously linked us to.  

Even when I place a ridiculous, heavy, unrealistic, paranoid, cautious, stupid bias against Leicester, we still seem to finish in the top 4.

Bar losing every game herein, we have an excellent chance for the Top 4...(you ain't seen me, right)

It's ours to lose, as they say. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

As long as Liverpool don’t win today we’ll be fine, and I fancy Burnley to get a point at least against West Ham.

Chelsea have a really tough run in as well.

[HighPeakFox]

7 hours ago, cruzFOX said:

West ham could get beat by burnley or it’s another draw or they could win it.

I feel wiser now.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Some of you are well pessimistic, talk of needing a point against Spurs or needing 70 points to clinch 4th is ridiculous We're 8 points clear of 5th with a much better GD (although they have played a game less, but points on the board and all that)

 

I am confident at least one of Spurs, Liverpool or WHU will drop points in the next 36 hours, if it's Liverpool or WHU, fantastic!

Edited 2 May 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[Ric Flair]

I still think there's plenty of work for us to do even if Liverpool don't win today and West Ham on Monday. 

 

I'm not dismissing West Ham but for now my main focus is Liverpool, even of they lose today, I wouldn't be shocked to see them stumble through the remaining 4 with unimpressive wins in them all if the opportunity presents itself to nab top 4. It means we'd need at least a result in the last 3 games which isn't guaranteed from us but if we lose all 3 then bollocks to us.

 

In fact fcuk it, I'm honestly not going to worry anymore. I'm proud of the team this season, its been a right attrition warfare on our squad at times and although we've not been as erosive as we are capable of, we have shown unbelievable resilience at times and that's what I'm narrowing in on. We'll do it and I fcukin love us. 

[HighPeakFox]

I will now state the bleeding obvious and say that it's all out of our (the fans) control, but as @Ric Flair said, I'm proud of the team, and the pressure is on those wanting to catch us. We have the points on the board with power to add, potentially.

[Gerard]

5 hours ago, lcfcfoz said:

Spurs are our main threat IMO, come on blades get something today

 

Spurs could win all their remaining games 10-0 and we could lose all our remaining games 10-0 but if we beat them that last game of the season we will finish above them regardless.

 

If the remaining of this weekend:

 

Tottenham win

West Ham draw

Liverpool lose

 

then that will have been a terrific weekend for us despite only drawing on Friday.

[Guest bennytwohats]

2 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Some of you are well pessimistic, talk of needing a point against Spurs or needing 70 points to clinch 4th is ridiculous We're 8 points clear of 4th with a much better GD (although they have played a game less, but points on the board and all that)

 

I am confident at least one of Spurs, Liverpool or WHU will drop points in the next 36 hours, if it's Liverpool or WHU, fantastic!

Not commenting on the other bits, but the thing about the goal difference is that if people are going to claw back the points deficit that means us losing and them winning, so by its nature our goal difference will swing quite a lot.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, bennytwohats said:

Not commenting on the other bits, but the thing about the goal difference is that if people are going to claw back the points deficit that means us losing and them winning, so by its nature our goal difference will swing quite a lot.

True for Liverpool and Spurs, but Everton won't catch our GD and WHU are very unlikely to, even if they win all their remaining games. Obviously one 3-0 win for them and a 3-0 loss for us completely changes things, but it does look very very unlikely.

[Gerard]

3 hours ago, AS78UK said:

OK, so I keep panicking that we have heaped a tonne of pressure on ourselves.   The predictor league didn't help, some how had us in 6th behind West Ham and Liverpool.   

 

But I am a pessimist at heart.  Ee have got to believe we can beat Newcastle ( if we don't God knows how we will all cope), and then our form against the big six will carry us over the line.  We play Man Utd n Chelsea both of whom have got additional european games. 

 

Predictors are awful because you just pick the obvious result and our competitors end up with near maximum results, for example everyone would have predicted Liverpool beating Newcastle at home last week and that never happened. The likes of West Ham and Liverpool need to win 4 our their last 5 to trouble us and in all likelihood that won't happen.

[Number 6]

Our worst 4 game spell this season has seen us take 5 points. If we repeat this we end on 68 points.

 

Chelsea's best 4 game run is 4 wins. If they repeat that they finish on 73 points.

 

West Ham's best 5 game run saw them collect 13 points. Repeating that would put them on 68 points.

 

Liverpool's best run of 5 this season is 11 points. They haven't won 4 in a row this season. If they match their best 5 they finish on 65.

 

Spurs best run of 5 this season saw them collect 13 points which would leave them on 66.

 

Would need some extreme runs of form for us to drop out but imperative we do our job on Friday, and hopefully Utd do us a favour today too.

 

[fuchsntf]

19 hours ago, SixtiesFox said:

Agreed. I think most of us share your fear about missing out, despite the statistical probabilities in our favour, simply because it happened to us last year.

I reckon its happened most of our 138yrs plus......

[Chocolate Teapot]

Just seen a post on the fighting cock.

 

They had us beating Newcastle and losing the next 3.

 

They then had West ham and Chelsea drawing 1 and winning 3 and Spurs and Liverpool winning virtually every game and us finishing 6th.

 

This would be an absolutely extraordinary turnaround but nice to know they're as positive as we are negative. Strong margins of delusion.

[Ric Flair]

6 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Our worst 4 game spell this season has seen us take 5 points. If we repeat this we end on 68 points.

 

Chelsea's best 4 game run is 4 wins. If they repeat that they finish on 73 points.

 

West Ham's best 5 game run saw them collect 13 points. Repeating that would put them on 68 points.

 

Liverpool's best run of 5 this season is 11 points. They haven't won 4 in a row this season. If they match their best 5 they finish on 65.

 

Spurs best run of 5 this season saw them collect 13 points which would leave them on 66.

 

Would need some extreme runs of form for us to drop out but imperative we do our job on Friday, and hopefully Utd do us a favour today too.

 

Chelsea have already won 2 on the spin, so hopefully timing it just right to win 2 more and then lose against us in the cup and league.

[Twitcher]

I think Liverpool are the danger. I see them winning their last four games, regardless of the Man U result. They've no distractions either.

[Dr What?]

Has anybody got the analysis as to how we pass Man U and achieve second?....

[OhYesNdidi]

We won 5 on the spin under shakespeare LOL

[Webbo]

15 minutes ago, Dr What? said:

Has anybody got the analysis as to how we pass Man U and achieve second?....

They're deducted 10 points for failing to control their fans.

[jayfox26]

7 minutes ago, Webbo said:

They're deducted 10 points for failing to control their fans.

This should 100% happen 

[chapero82]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

They're deducted 10 points for failing to control their fans.

The rule is that Liverpool get awarded the win instead but they don’t receive a points deduction 

[Dr What?]

17 minutes ago, Webbo said:

They're deducted 10 points for failing to control their fans.

Time to look in the wardrobe for any red shirts that could be used

[Number 6]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Chelsea have already won 2 on the spin, so hopefully timing it just right to win 2 more and then lose against us in the cup and league.

Fair point, I hadn't really considered current form. Winning their last 4 would mean a 6 game run for Chelsea, whish is pretty uncommon. Don't think it affects the rest or us much though as we all seem to have had a recent bad result!