2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[thursday_next]

That's fine, Ric. Everybody expects us to beat them when there are three games left before that one. That's easy. Come the day of the match, and that's a whole different ball game. In a strange way, I didn't care too much when we lost out to Man U last season, because I didn't think our squad was strong enough for the Champions League. If we do it again - and to Tottenham - I will seriously want to die or at the very least go into a coma.

 

[Raw Dykes]

The suspense is killing me. I'm going to be a nervous wreck for the next few weeks unless we can get it sewn up before then.

 

We do have 3 very tough fixtures on paper, but then we have done very well against the greedy 6 so far this season.

 

We're also assuming that the chasing pack are going to get maximum points or close to it, but that's no mean feat, and we've seen Liverpool and West Ham slip up in games they should be winning recently.

 

I think Man Utd's hectic schedule and all-but-guaranteed top 4 spot bodes well for us. We should be wanting that one more than them, and we have recently knocked them out the cup.

 

A win on Friday would be huge. I'm going to try not to panic if we can't get the win. We will be making life a lot tougher for ourselves, but it will still be in our hands. It will probably be very damaging for us mentally to drop points in the easiest-looking fixture left, especially after what happened last season, but we'll still be top 4 with 3 chances left to get the points we need. Helps that Newcastle are more-or-less safe now.

[sheffield_fox]

Has anyone managed to calculate what position we're going to finish in yet?

[SixtiesFox]

Momentum is key in sports. We lost a bit after the last round of results. Beat Newcastle and we get that momentum back. West Ham and Liverpool (West Ham would be 8 points adrift with a possible 12 on the table, Liverpool 13 adrift with a maximum of 15 on the table) would then be under immense pressure to "run the table" as they say in the NFL. Do the business on Friday and we take the pressure off ourselves and heap it on to the chasing pack. The Newcastle game could well be the defining moment of our Premier League season.

[Guest bennytwohats]

49 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

All these chasing teams need to hit more than 2.5 points on average a game for the remaining 4/5 games and hope we only pick up 3 points or less. 

We are looking at a short enough timespan that ppg is a bit of a meaningless metric. Like very few teams will hit 2.5 ppg over a season ever, but I’d guess in any season you’ve got at least a handful of teams that do it over a 4/5 game period.

 

I agree with the sentiment, but whatever way you carve it thinks can go wrong pretty quickly over a couple of games. If we fail to beat Newcastle then we’ll need a significant upturn in performances for the last 3 to do it

[Sly]

11 minutes ago, sheffield_fox said:

Has anyone managed to calculate what position we're going to finish in yet?

3rd

[Ric Flair]

Just now, bennytwohats said:

We are looking at a short enough timespan that ppg is a bit of a meaningless metric. Like very few teams will hit 2.5 ppg over a season ever, but I’d guess in any season you’ve got at least a handful of teams that do it over a 4/5 game period.

 

I agree with the sentiment, but whatever way you carve it thinks can go wrong pretty quickly over a couple of games. If we fail to beat Newcastle then we’ll need a significant upturn in performances for the last 3 to do it

Of course, it's a short game span but none of them have hit anywhere near that in the last 5 games except for Chelsea. Even over 4-5 games none of the chasing pack have put 4 wins together in recent months. 

[KrefelderFox666]

8 minutes ago, Sly said:

3rd

That's the same calculation result I came to. Maths was a favourite subject of mine so it's looking good!

[Gerard]

12 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Bad weekend for us on the whole I think. Southampton was winnable and even more so given their red card but we didn't really turn up until we went behind.

 

Chelsea & Spurs were always going to win. Liverpool's game is still to come but who knows when they'll play it - I suppose it will make their schedule a bit tougher though as they'll now have more midweek games as a result. West Ham is the annoying one.

 

The real ****er to me is that this Chelsea/Arsenal European double has become a real possibility at this point. Why oh why could Villarreal have not just killed them off at 2-0. That said the ref giving that penalty was an utter disgrace. I don't totally trust Villarreal to see the job through either.

 

Friday is a very big game. I think if we don't win it, we're in real danger of missing out again.

 

But I think we'll win it. Unconvincingly like the Palace game, we find a way. I also have a feeling West Ham will drop points to Everton.

 

Arsenal and Chelsea according to Betfair both have about a 20% chance of winning their European tournaments. Chelsea have an implied 31% chance of finishing outside the top four in the PL

 

For all those things above to happen is an implied 2.48% chance. Really not worth worrying about at this stage. We just need to beat Newcastle and see where the land lies before we play Man Utd.

[Countryfox]

I have done my own calculations ..   (I like the OP was also brilliant at mafs ..  but not so good at speling) ...  and have come up with the following :

 

Tiredness factor ...  95%

Lack of real quality on the bench ...  96%

Tough matches ahead ..   95%

Teams just behind us looking good ...    85%

Key players carrying injuries or not up to speed ...   (Maddison Evans Ricardo Vardy) ...    97%

 

If two or more of the above are over 80% we’re goosed. 

 

I’ve also done some critical analysis on the FA cup final but will hold back on that one as I don’t want to give too much bad news all at once ...     

[Gerard]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

All these chasing teams need to hit more than 2.5 points on average a game for the remaining 4/5 games and hope we only pick up 3 points or less. 

 

We still have plenty of outs.

 

Everyone looks at the fixtures and expects our opponents to look like prime Barcelona against the lesser teams and for us to capitulate against the big six. At our best we are just as good as Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham.

 

Beat Newcastle and everything would have to go wrong from thereon in for us not to get CL football. Just need to get the job done on Friday, no excuses.

[FoxOnWheels]

A bit weird but a win Friday and 3 draws could potentially be better GD wise than 2 wins 

[Mythyaar]

I think we'll get 7 pts from remaining games. Will be more than enough. 5 pts may suffice.

[srex9]

Nervous as hell but this has a completely different feel to it from last year.

[KingsX]

8 hours ago, manders86 said:

We've asked the club for years to have a bigger club mentality and help us grow, which they have done. We need to change our mentality now and believe the lads will see us through.

 

This.

 

Positive, resilient people will bring that attitude toward our chances.  Which doesn’t rule out a range of considered opinions.  But it does rule out flapping at every setback along the way.

 

People who lack resilience will insist feverishly that we are bound to fail.  They seem locked in on past failures, lost in projecting their own mindset onto the players.  That affects the atmosphere in here so much.  And even in the ground.

 

I wish I saw more of the “can do” among our fans, that the club itself exemplifies.  But you can’t change people, eh.

[FoxinNotts]

Last year, I could see the way it was going, early enough, and I resigned to the  fact that we would be Europa League. Tbh, this year I’m more optimistic. However, I would be genuinely happy with our season, if we finished 5th and because we have reached the cup final, this certainly softens the blow, should we finish fifth. The biggest issue is that we are in the top four all season, only to drop out at the last. But on the flip side of the coin, our targets at the start of the season are top six ✅ and cup finals ✅

Edited 5 May 2021 by FoxinNotts

[OrielCaziado]

10 minutes ago, FoxinNotts said:

Last year, I could see the way it was going, early enough, and I resigned to the  fact that we would be Europa League. Tbh, this year I’m more optimistic. However, I would be genuinely happy with our season, if we finished 5th and because we have reached the cup final, this certainly softens the blow, should we finish fifth. The biggest issue is that we are in the top four all season, only to drop out at the last. But on the flip side of the coin, our targets at the start of the season are top six ✅ and cup finals ✅

As much as I agree it’s still a good season if we finish fifth surely you’ve got to reassess targets during a season. From where we are now fifth will be a disaster especially, if we lose the Cup final. Being satisfied with reaching our pre season target of top six is a bit like going racing and finding yourself £1000 up after four races only to finish the meeting £100 in front. Yes you’d have settled for that pre racing but would be fuming you had undone all the earlier good work which put you in a position where your original targets became irrelevant really.

[urban fox]

are Chelsea fans thinking  "oh sh*t... we are gonna lose to man city and leicester, WHU and Liverpool win will every game and we will finish sixth, get beaten by the foxes in the cup final and even if we do get past Real, Man City will tonk us in the CL final" ?

I very much doubt it so why do we seem to have a monopoly on being downbeat all the time.

mind you i would laugh myself hoarse if that happened.

[Ric Flair]

Don't discount the impact of fans on those final 2 league games...

[KrefelderFox666]

44 minutes ago, urban fox said:

are Chelsea fans thinking  "oh sh*t... we are gonna lose to man city and leicester, WHU and Liverpool win will every game and we will finish sixth, get beaten by the foxes in the cup final and even if we do get past Real, Man City will tonk us in the CL final" ?

I very much doubt it so why do we seem to have a monopoly on being downbeat all the time.

mind you i would laugh myself hoarse if that happened.

Probably because Chelsea have a track record of performing when it matters. However, I agree the negativity is a bit too much over our side.

[st albans fox]

Friday night is massive because I want to see if the players are ‘on it’. Last Friday they simply weren’t ......no urgency 

 

if we look like we want it badly and simply come unstuck with some v bad luck then I’ll look forward to the last three games with some confidence.  If we look as lethargic as last Friday (both on and off the pitch) then anything other than a win leaves us in a v nerve racking place headed into the last three (and I will begin to wonder if anything is happening behind the scenes to upset the dynamics) 

[Chocolate Teapot]

Don't know why....and it may be what I see on social media but the players seem relaxed and up for it. 

 

Quotes from Brendan in the press conference seemed relaxed. 'Win as many games as possible' 'we'll finish where we deserve to finish.

[Sunbury Fox]

Given West Ham have 4 fixtures against 'other 14' teams left, I checked their form out against teams in this group. And worryingly it is astonishingly good: W16 D4 L2. The 2 defeats were both against Newcastle.

 

By contrast, their record against the big 6 is terrible: W1 D3 and L8. Interesting that you can challenge for UCL on the back of 0.5 PPG against the big 6.

[Chocolate Teapot]

11 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said:

Given West Ham have 4 fixtures against 'other 14' teams left, I checked their form out against teams in this group. And worryingly it is astonishingly good: W16 D4 L2. The 2 defeats were both against Newcastle.

 

By contrast, their record against the big 6 is terrible: W1 D3 and L8. Interesting that you can challenge for UCL on the back of 0.5 PPG against the big 6.

Ours was similar last year and we know how that ended....

[Ric Flair]

19 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Don't know why....and it may be what I see on social media but the players seem relaxed and up for it. 

 

Quotes from Brendan in the press conference seemed relaxed. 'Win as many games as possible' 'we'll finish where we deserve to finish.

They will be a lot more determined, calm and positive than we are and thank god for that as if it was us lot we'd definitely blow it.

 

Still think we need 69 points, got to get those 2 wins from somewhere and they'll be confident they can from the games we have left. I think we'll need a result vs Spurs which will be torture for us but in front of 8000 + of our fans and hopefully Spurs out of the CL race will give us the advantage.