2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ric Flair]

6 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Grealish fit to play against Man Utd on Sunday apparently- starts full training this week.

Last game of the season vs Chelsea in front of his beloved Villa fans will be when he turns it on and we secure 3rd place.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

9 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I'm at the stage now where it all just feels so agonising. I know I should be enjoying seeing us battle for a top 4 finish but I think last season has scarred me.

It's because we've been top four all season, it's absolutely ours to lose, just like it was last season. 

[Finnegan]

15 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I'm at the stage now where it all just feels so agonising. I know I should be enjoying seeing us battle for a top 4 finish but I think last season has scarred me.

 

I think it will be tight, but as Geoff said earlier in this thread, we would have snapped your hands off after the West Ham game if offered the chance to be 5 points clear of 5th with 12 points to play for.

 

So much hinges on Friday night. If we fail to win and a couple of teams close the gap we'll probably no longer be seen as favourites anymore and the nerves will really kick in. However, we probably need 2 more wins, so if we win on Friday we can tick one of those off knowing that we have 3 more attempts to get the other and can also sit back and enjoy a weekend where the teams around us all have tricky matches.

 

If we beat Newcastle and didn't pick up another point afterwards:

- West Ham would need to win at least 3 of their last 4.

- Spurs would need to at least win 3 and draw 1 of their last 4.

- Liverpool would need to win at least 4 of their last 5.

 

Pressure would be off, for a game or two at least.

 

Of course I realise this thought process is setting myself up for a full on meltdown if we don't beat Newcastle.

 

This pretty much sums up how I feel I think, I can't add much more than that. If we beat Newcastle I'll feel fairly comfortable. 

 

If we beat Newcastle and West Ham don't beat Everton I'll be verging on celebratory. 

[Le Renard]

Lets hope pyscologically this team has grown....I think it has and hope it has?  Normally I would say it is better to have the points in the bag, but sometimes it is just mentally easier to chase down the teams above!  If we blow it I don't want us to get the Spursy tag.......the shame of it!

[Ricey]

7 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

It's because we've been top four all season, it's absolutely ours to lose, just like it was last season. 

Yeah, we are way beyond the point of no return in regards to reigning in expectations. If we miss out, no matter how it may happen, we will all be gutted. It feels like now or never for this group of players.

[Hammo]

There are countless potential scenarios but the fact is that with four games to go we are masters of our own fate.

 

Yes, I do fear that dropping two points against ten-man Southampton, with Vardy missing that huge late chance, could cost us, but that’s gone.

 

The players have five enormous matches coming up - four of them very tough - in which they simply have to get their act together and perform. If they do, we will have something glorious to celebrate at the end of this weird and occasionally wonderful season. If they don’t, it will be a crushing disappointment, but they will have no one to blame but themselves.

 

 

[Col city fan]

I’ve got us to finish fourth. 

[whoareyaaa]

If we win against Newcastle we will be almost there imo, can't see anyone else threatening 

[harpendenfox]

19 days left of our season, and like many of you I'm looking at the table obsessively, worrying about all sorts of possible negative outcomes. I did try and have a word with myself last night. This will almost certainly be the second most successful season in our entire history. If we can't enjoy things now, when will we? This month many of us, hopefully, will get to see live football again for the first time in a year.

 

The future is unwritten. Almost certainly things will happen we cannot predict right now. Luck may well play a part. I suppose what I'm trying to say fellow foxes is that we have to try and relax and enjoy the next three weeks. Que sera sera.

[foxes_rule1978]

We are still in a great position, I said 10 from West Brom, palace, Southampton and Newcastle would pretty much secure a CL place. The small slip up against Southampton means we can’t really afford one at Newcastle. Beat Newcastle though we will only need 2 points from those tough last 3 

[Devonfox1884]

Smash Newcastle to get the goal difference up and we essentially have 6 points over West Ham. Then we just need 1 win or 3 draws from United, Chelsea and Spurs and it should be job done.

 

Although not technically a ‘must win’, Newcastle on Friday is as close as we’ll get to one I think. 

Edited 4 May 2021 by Devonfox1884

[Guest bennytwohats]

1 hour ago, Ricey said:

I'm at the stage now where it all just feels so agonising. I know I should be enjoying seeing us battle for a top 4 finish but I think last season has scarred me.

 

I think it will be tight, but as Geoff said earlier in this thread, we would have snapped your hands off after the West Ham game if offered the chance to be 5 points clear of 5th with 12 points to play for.

 

So much hinges on Friday night. If we fail to win and a couple of teams close the gap we'll probably no longer be seen as favourites anymore and the nerves will really kick in. However, we probably need 2 more wins, so if we win on Friday we can tick one of those off knowing that we have 3 more attempts to get the other and can also sit back and enjoy a weekend where the teams around us all have tricky matches.

 

If we beat Newcastle and didn't pick up another point afterwards:

- West Ham would need to win at least 3 of their last 4.

- Spurs would need to at least win 3 and draw 1 of their last 4.

- Liverpool would need to win at least 4 of their last 5.

 

Pressure would be off, for a game or two at least.

 

Of course I realise this thought process is setting myself up for a full on meltdown if we don't beat Newcastle.

If we don’t beat Newcastle the entire forum will be having a meltdown. Even the meltdown will be having a meltdown

[Guest bennytwohats]

There are a lot of quotes here that look like they could have been plucked from the Terminator films, so I’ll just add; no fate but what we make for ourselves.

 

Aka let’s smash Newcastle

[foxes_rule1978]

52 minutes ago, bennytwohats said:

If we don’t beat Newcastle the entire forum will be having a meltdown. Even the meltdown will be having a meltdown

If we don’t beat Newcastle, I will be too scared to come on the forum! Southampton was bad enough  

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE 4th May 

 

There's no sugar coating that not beating a poor Southampton side who played with 10 men for 80 mins wasn't a missed opportunity. But the reality is we inched 1 point closer to our target. And as others have said we've not actually lost ground since the West Ham defeat. Still all to play for and in our hands - every other team would swap position with us. 

 

Same again really - 68 points should do it - get to that and West Ham, Spurs and Liverpool need maximum points or close to it.

 

 

But obviously it's incredibly tight, considering all 3 of them could conceivably win all their remaining games, although of course we have a say in what Spurs do. Even if we drew all our remaining games, that'd put us on 67, meaning Spurs would need maximum, Liverpool could only drop 2 points and West Ham could only afford 1 loss. 

 

Points per game over the last 10 is favourable, however over the last 5 matches though we can see that everyone below us is in better form. Eeek.  

 

Points Required

 

 

Droppable Points

 

 

Fixtures

 

 

Edited 4 May 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Jobyfox]

On my spreadsheet we’re ok in terms of the mathematical formulae for getting top four. The only one where we fall down is current PPG v West Ham getting maximum points.

 

Unfortunately, on the page where I use logic to predict scores, rather than purely mathematical formula, we’re now finishing 6th behind West Ham and Liverpool. It really is at the stage now, however, where one game can swing everything around (eg West Ham losing to Everton or us beating Man Utd).

 

One thing is for certain. The Newcastle game is as close as it can be to being a must win game - without actually being a must win game. Personally I don’t think we’re quite there if we win it, but I think we’ll miss out if we don’t 

Edited 4 May 2021 by Jobyfox

[Sly]

We concentrate on the next game.
 

We need to beat a very poor Newcastle team, that are now 99.9% guaranteed Premier League football next season.  

[Leeds Fox]

It’s absolute torture but it’s why we all love football.

[OrielCaziado]

Fear and pressure can do strange things to people. I’ve watched Newcastle probably 20 times this season and am pretty sure in all 20 games I’ve watched them I’ve thought how dire they are overall and how they’ll be lucky to stay up.  Now all of a sudden I’m seeing them as some sort of Man City/Barca love child who are coming to kill my dreams. 

[Ricey]

2 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

It’s absolute torture but it’s why we all love football.

Watching Burnley try and create goalscoring chances last night is not why I fell in love with football, but I agree that it was torture.

[Ric Flair]

All these chasing teams need to hit more than 2.5 points on average a game for the remaining 4/5 games and hope we only pick up 3 points or less. 

[thursday_next]

We have to do it before the final game. If we go into the game with Tottenham needing anything at all then this forum will go into spectacular meltdown. Harry Kane is playing his last match for Spurs. He scores goals against us for fun, and he'll be dying to add two or three more before he heads overseas or wherever. Also it's Tottenham, a team we hate, and the feeling is mutual. I don't think that Tottenham will be on the beach. They will be absolutely determined to make sure we don't qualify for the Champions League, even if their own chances have gone down the pan. Rodgers will be nervous. So will the players. I know we're meant to be fearless, but count me out for that one - I'm going to hide behind the sofa with chest pains, laboured breathing, and a growing feeling of numbness in my left arm.

 

  

[davieG]

56 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE 4th May 

 

There's no sugar coating that not beating a poor Southampton side who played with 10 men for 80 mins wasn't a missed opportunity. But the reality is we inched 1 point closer to our target. And as others have said we've not actually lost ground since the West Ham defeat. Still all to play for and in our hands - every other team would swap position with us. 

 

Same again really - 68 points should do it - get to that and West Ham, Spurs and Liverpool need maximum points or close to it.

 

 

But obviously it's incredibly tight, considering all 3 of them could conceivably win all their remaining games, although of course we have a say in what Spurs do. Even if we drew all our remaining games, that'd put us on 67, meaning Spurs would need maximum, Liverpool could only drop 2 points and West Ham could only afford 1 loss. 

 

Points per game over the last 10 is favourable, however over the last 5 matches though we can see that everyone below us is in better form. Eeek.  

 

Points Required

  Hide contents

 

Droppable Points

  Hide contents

 

Fixtures

  Hide contents

 

Thanks, I think the Leicester (N) should be coloured in.

[Simmo86]

2 minutes ago, thursday_next said:

We have to do it before the final game. If we go into the game with Tottenham needing anything at all then this forum will go into spectacular meltdown. Harry Kane is playing his last match for Spurs. He scores goals against us for fun, and he'll be dying to add two or three more before he heads overseas or wherever. Also it's Tottenham, a team we hate, and the feeling is mutual. I don't think that Tottenham will be on the beach. They will be absolutely determined to make sure we don't qualify for the Champions League, even if their own chances have gone down the pan. Rodgers will be nervous. So will the players. I know we're meant to be fearless, but count me out for that one - I'm going to hide behind the sofa with chest pains, laboured breathing, and a growing feeling of numbness in my left arm.

 

  

I'm not one for bed wetting but I'm not sure I could take a final day showdown again!

 

99.9% sure we win the next two anyway. Job done, anti climax!

Edited 4 May 2021 by Simmo86

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, thursday_next said:

We have to do it before the final game. If we go into the game with Tottenham needing anything at all then this forum will go into spectacular meltdown. Harry Kane is playing his last match for Spurs. He scores goals against us for fun, and he'll be dying to add two or three more before he heads overseas or wherever. Also it's Tottenham, a team we hate, and the feeling is mutual. I don't think that Tottenham will be on the beach. They will be absolutely determined to make sure we don't qualify for the Champions League, even if their own chances have gone down the pan. Rodgers will be nervous. So will the players. I know we're meant to be fearless, but count me out for that one - I'm going to hide behind the sofa with chest pains, laboured breathing, and a growing feeling of numbness in my left arm.

 

  

I'd back us to get a result vs them. They've got about as much bottle as we have, in fact they've got less and Mason will be way out of his depth.