2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Three games ago, we were:   +1 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +4 ahead of Liverpool and +7 ahead of Spurs.

Right now we are:                  +5 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +9 ahead of Liverpool (with game in hand) and +7 ahead of Spurs.

 

None of the chasing pack have made ground on us (even if Liverpool had won their game in hand).

[chapero82]

32 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Three games ago, we were:   +1 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +4 ahead of Liverpool and +7 ahead of Spurs.

Right now we are:                  +5 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +9 ahead of Liverpool (with game in hand) and +7 ahead of Spurs.

 

None of the chasing pack have made ground on us (even if Liverpool had won their game in hand).

[UpTheLeagueFox]

30 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Three games ago, we were:   +1 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +4 ahead of Liverpool and +7 ahead of Spurs.

Right now we are:                  +5 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +9 ahead of Liverpool (with game in hand) and +7 ahead of Spurs.

 

None of the chasing pack have made ground on us (even if Liverpool had won their game in hand).

Let's take a longer view than just 3 games.

Over the past TEN games, only Chelsea and Spurs have made any ground on us.

Chelsea have closed the gap by 2 pts and Spurs 3 pts, and they actually played 11 games to our 10 in that period.

[Royston.]

No disrespect to west ham but I'm not worried they'll catch us, for now at least.

Reckon Chelsea will leap frog us but I'm dreading arsenal winning Europa and taking that last CL spot, despite likely finishing way off in mid table.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

6 minutes ago, Royston. said:

No disrespect to west ham but I'm not worried they'll catch us, for now at least.

Reckon Chelsea will leap frog us but I'm dreading arsenal winning Europa and taking that last CL spot, despite likely finishing way off in mid table.

If Chelsea finish third and we finish fourth and Arsenal win the UEL then there'll be five CL spots so we'll be fine.

The only problem is if Chelsea win the UCL but finish outside the top four and Arsenal win the UEL (and will obviously finish outside the top four) and we finish fourth.

It's a very unlikely scenario.

[Royston.]

Ahh ok. Makes me feel better.

Can't see Chelsea not making top 4 and even if they don't, surely that makes us stronger for 3rd??

[Gerard]

People look at the fixture list left for all the teams and predict our opponents will virtually win all their games as they're against lesser teams and we will lose most of our it because three of our games are against "big six" sides.

 

According to the spreads we're still predicted to finish 4pts ahead of both West Ham and Liverpool who the spreads have finishing on 64.5pts.

 

Beat Newcastle on Friday and we're already on 65pts so that may well be enough. We then have lots of outs whether that be 2 or 3 pts in the next two away games or other teams around us not winning the games they need to. 

 

If we beat Newcastle on Friday and Chelsea lose to Man City away on Saturday that's a 5pt gap so even a draw at Chelsea forces them to beat Arsenal and Villa and hope we screw up.

 

Everyone wants this done ASAP but we have loads of outs and just need one really good week to go for us and that will be enough. It would even take something spectacularly bad for us to go into the Tottenham game without a chance.

[Dan LCFC]

Bad weekend for us on the whole I think. Southampton was winnable and even more so given their red card but we didn't really turn up until we went behind.

 

Chelsea & Spurs were always going to win. Liverpool's game is still to come but who knows when they'll play it - I suppose it will make their schedule a bit tougher though as they'll now have more midweek games as a result. West Ham is the annoying one.

 

The real ****er to me is that this Chelsea/Arsenal European double has become a real possibility at this point. Why oh why could Villarreal have not just killed them off at 2-0. That said the ref giving that penalty was an utter disgrace. I don't totally trust Villarreal to see the job through either.

 

Friday is a very big game. I think if we don't win it, we're in real danger of missing out again.

 

But I think we'll win it. Unconvincingly like the Palace game, we find a way. I also have a feeling West Ham will drop points to Everton.

[AshbyBlue]

Beat Newcastle Friday and can see us turning over Man U and Spurs and losing to Chelsea and were there dont panic.

[st albans fox]

The problem we currently see is our team played 80 mins against ten men and failed to create many decent chances. And against palace was similar 

 

West Ham went to Burnley and made loads, looked incisive and won 

 

Chelsea look v efficient 

 

but West Ham had just lost a couple on the bounce

 

we need to hold our nerve and see what Friday evening brings 

 

if it’s another lacklustre performance without three points then we do indeed need to start running around waving our arms in all directions....

 

 

[Sly]

5 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Bad weekend for us on the whole I think. Southampton was winnable and even more so given their red card but we didn't really turn up until we went behind.

 

Chelsea & Spurs were always going to win. Liverpool's game is still to come but who knows when they'll play it - I suppose it will make their schedule a bit tougher though as they'll now have more midweek games as a result. West Ham is the annoying one.

 

The real ****er to me is that this Chelsea/Arsenal European double has become a real possibility at this point. Why oh why could Villarreal have not just killed them off at 2-0. That said the ref giving that penalty was an utter disgrace. I don't totally trust Villarreal to see the job through either.

 

Friday is a very big game. I think if we don't win it, we're in real danger of missing out again.

 

But I think we'll win it. Unconvincingly like the Palace game, we find a way. I also have a feeling West Ham will drop points to Everton.

I still believe Manchester United will win the Europa League. They’re a far better team than Arsenal. 

[Eskay]

8 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Three games ago, we were:   +1 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +4 ahead of Liverpool and +7 ahead of Spurs.

Right now we are:                  +5 ahead of West Ham, +2 ahead of Chelsea, +9 ahead of Liverpool (with game in hand) and +7 ahead of Spurs.

 

None of the chasing pack have made ground on us (even if Liverpool had won their game in hand).

Great post but it's a retro view. 

 

The point people (like myself) are making is that the period we have been through....the aim was to increase the gap. Reasons being our remaining fixtures and our ability to handle being in high pressure situations. 

 

Team sports are down to not just peaking ....but peaking at the right time. Being able to handle that pressure and getting over the line when it counts. Being too 4 all season is useless if you aren't there on the last weekend (as we have painfully discovered). 

 

I want to see big performances from players who didn't play well in the final run in. Have they improved at all and showed they can cope? I'm a big critic of Maddison but I thought he was awful against Soton. Vardy needs to start scoring. Ndidi and Tilemans need to get going and the defence need to start cutting out errors. 

 

We are playing a totally different set of teams in terms of their mindset and set up compared to the start of the season.... Chelsea and spurs will be thinking 'keep Kel quiet and they've got nothing'. We need other players to step up to show they belong at the top table. 

[Wasyls Pec Deck]

If we’d have beaten Southampton like we should have done, winning the Newcastle game would likely have been enough. If that stands then if we beat Newcastle we need 2 points from final 3.

 

Who knows anymore though, and what I think changes on a weekly basis!

[Pliskin]

To be fair I think we will be fine.

 

we’ve not been on terrible run this season at all (which is a miracle considering the injuries we’ve had) we’ve taken points off teams around us, and it’s only been West Ham we’ve slipped up against twice. 
 

We only need two wins, or just need to avoid defeats with a win thrown in. So I think it will pan out like this.

 

We will beat Newcastle 

Draw to United (if the game gets played) 

Draw to Chelsea and I think we will save the best until last by savaging Spurs.

 

In between that we will sneak a cheeky FA cup win in too.

 

To be honest I wouldn’t put it past us beating United, the off the field antics could have caused them one or two issues, there’s a chance due to their schedule they might have not played Liverpool by the time they play us. So I’m going to throw a real bold claim out and say we will sneak into second. A bit like Arsenal did the season we won the league. 

Edited 4 May 2021 by Pliskin

[Dahnsouff]

So IF we win, or at least do not lose this Friday, Saturday's games are ripe with possibility as we would be on 63 (L), 64 (D) or 66 (W)

 

 

Spurs could struggle with Leeds, but depends which Leeds turn up, but feeling a D so 57

Man City still will not be champions so need to focus, so  lets hope Chelsea L (61) or at most D (62)

Liverpool against Saints, God knows   so lets says a W (59) and if they win their game in hand against Man Utd (62)

 

So if we don`t at least draw, only Chelsea could go ahead (And that requires a win at title chasing Man City) and we have between the last 3 already this season 

 

 

Edited 4 May 2021 by Dahnsouff

[manders86]

We need to chill out a bit now! If last season hadn't of happened we wouldn't be considering that this could go Pete Tong. 

  Newcastle is a must win game for sure. A cup final in it's own right, and if we win that we avoid the majority of the scrap of the last 3 games, however if we win that and lose all of the last 3 games, we don't deserve CL do we.

 

 We've asked the club for years to have a bigger club mentality and help us grow, which they have done. We need to change our mentality now and believe the lads will see us through. 

 

Poor result Friday for sure. Poor performance. Brendan will have them ready for Friday. 

[Raw Dykes]

22 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

So IF we win, or at least do not lose this Friday, Saturday's games are ripe with possibility as we would be on 63 (L), 64 (D) or 66 (W)

 

 

Spurs could struggle with Leeds, but depends which Leeds turn up, but feeling a D so 57

Man City still will not be champions so need to focus, so  lets hope Chelsea L (61) or at most D (62)

Liverpool against Saints, God knows   so lets says a W (59) and if they win their game in hand against Man Utd (62)

 

So if we don`t at least draw, only Chelsea could go ahead (And that requires a win at title chasing Man City) and we have between the last 3 already this season 

 

 

Why are Liverpool getting 5 points for beating Soton? Am I missing something?

[Chocolate Teapot]

Flipping it on its head....

 

If we win on Friday and spurs lose they can't catch us.

 

if west ham and liverpool lose and we win, they'd need to win every game and us lose all three to overtake us.

 

Fortunately I think the players will be far more relaxed than us on here - Friday they were knackered.

 

I know we're all thinking of last year but remember the title winning season?

After MW34 we had a 5 point gap over Spurs....who promptly went and drew at West Brom, with us trouncing Swansea 4-0, you know the rest - we had man utd, Chelsea and Everton last 3 games of that season....took 5 points from them and didn't lose (man utd and Chelsea were away as per this year), we then had the most glorious day in front of our fans at Everton.

 

For further omens see the trophies won by Selby, Leicester women and the riders.

 

Yours Sincerely,

 

Mr positivity.

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, Raw Dykes said:

Why are Liverpool getting 5 points for beating Soton? Am I missing something?

I always preferred English at school  

 

 

[HighPeakFox]

7 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

Why are Liverpool getting 5 points for beating Soton? Am I missing something?

It's a new rule, mate. 

[davieG]

12 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

Why are Liverpool getting 5 points for beating Soton? Am I missing something?

2 bonus points for artistic merit in the diving class.

[ftfagos]

31 minutes ago, manders86 said:

Newcastle is a must win game for sure. A cup final in it's own right, and if we win that we avoid the majority of the scrap of the last 3 games, however if we win that and lose all of the last 3 games, we don't deserve CL do we.

This. We don’t want to start next season on the back of three straight losses. The final table does not lie.

[Chocolate Teapot]

Grealish fit to play against Man Utd on Sunday apparently- starts full training this week.

[Nalis]

36 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

So IF we win, or at least do not lose this Friday, Saturday's games are ripe with possibility as we would be on 63 (L), 64 (D) or 66 (W)

 

 

Spurs could struggle with Leeds, but depends which Leeds turn up, but feeling a D so 57

Man City still will not be champions so need to focus, so  lets hope Chelsea L (61) or at most D (62)

Liverpool against Saints, God knows   so lets says a W (59) and if they win their game in hand against Man Utd (62)

 

So if we don`t at least draw, only Chelsea could go ahead (And that requires a win at title chasing Man City) and we have between the last 3 already this season 

 

 

West Ham are at home to Everton on Sunday too. An Everton draw or win would be huge.

[Ricey]

I'm at the stage now where it all just feels so agonising. I know I should be enjoying seeing us battle for a top 4 finish but I think last season has scarred me.

 

I think it will be tight, but as Geoff said earlier in this thread, we would have snapped your hands off after the West Ham game if offered the chance to be 5 points clear of 5th with 12 points to play for.

 

So much hinges on Friday night. If we fail to win and a couple of teams close the gap we'll probably no longer be seen as favourites anymore and the nerves will really kick in. However, we probably need 2 more wins, so if we win on Friday we can tick one of those off knowing that we have 3 more attempts to get the other and can also sit back and enjoy a weekend where the teams around us all have tricky matches.

 

If we beat Newcastle and didn't pick up another point afterwards:

- West Ham would need to win at least 3 of their last 4.

- Spurs would need to at least win 3 and draw 1 of their last 4.

- Liverpool would need to win at least 4 of their last 5.

 

Pressure would be off, for a game or two at least.

 

Of course I realise this thought process is setting myself up for a full on meltdown if we don't beat Newcastle.