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Buce

Not The Politics Thread.

By Buce, in General Chat

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Dunge said:

So all in all, I think @Sharpe's Fox is right when he’s talking about Starmer being apolitical, but it strikes me that that may be part of a longer-term plan. He would have to nail down some specific policies and declare what he stands for at some point, particularly if not helped out by an external event that collapses the Tories, but right now it could well be strategic to make sure he doesn’t collect unnecessary baggage.

 

...although, on the other hand, maybe he simply understands that British people don’t like being preached to?

At this stage I don't believe there is anything which would lead to the tories getting less than 40% of the vote. They've constructed a narrative that they are the party for British people and that resonates with those whose British identity is massively important (mainly old and white working classes). People overlook terrible handling of the pandemic, blatant misuse of taxpayer money, lying, childish behaviour amongst other and they're still cool with it because the alternatives are supposedly worse (aka not patriotic enough for them). Why do you think Starmer is sitting in pubs with a pint in his with old white blokes 24/7? Is it because he's a raging patriot (he absolutely isn't) or is this the only way to tap into those votes, who he wont get anyway because they trust tories more, somehow. 

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Dunge

Dunge

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Lionator said:

At this stage I don't believe there is anything which would lead to the tories getting less than 40% of the vote. They've constructed a narrative that they are the party for British people and that resonates with those whose British identity is massively important (mainly old and white working classes). People overlook terrible handling of the pandemic, blatant misuse of taxpayer money, lying, childish behaviour amongst other and they're still cool with it because the alternatives are supposedly worse (aka not patriotic enough for them). Why do you think Starmer is sitting in pubs with a pint in his with old white blokes 24/7? Is it because he's a raging patriot (he absolutely isn't) or is this the only way to tap into those votes, who he wont get anyway because they trust tories more, somehow. 

Maybe so, but I still think a major economic screw-up could hurt them, as could looking like they’re actually going to sell off the NHS (Labour tried to convince everyone of that at the last election but it simply wasn’t believable), or selecting the wrong leader when and if Boris leaves. There is plenty that could go wrong for the Tories. Even not coming out against the proposed European Super League could have hurt them - credit to whoever’s advising Boris on that one because they were right on the ball there.

 

At the moment, Boris’s mere presence reminds the people you speak of of how he and his party are the last bastion of protection between them and the dreaded progressives - the ones who wanted to deny us our freedom from the EU, who still want to meddle in our lives and tell us constantly on Twitter what awful people we are for any number of reasons. Similar to how Trump is viewed by many in America but not nearly so dangerous. But I believe that viewpoint can change over time, and I think that’s what Starmer is waiting for while trying not to make enemies in the meantime.

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Gordon the Great said:

I am certainly no advocate of the politics of Mr Trump but I would say his lifetime ambition was to be President of the USA, He achieved that, what he did when he got there is another matter.

Nah, can't say that I agree there, for the reasons another poster gave above and also for the reasons that there was so many things in office that he wanted to do that he didn't achieve.

 

Additionally, I would suggest a key goal for him is legacy, and right now his is mud. Time may well tell if that changes, though - it might.

 

Tbh I'll never think of a personality type like his as a "winner" in a general fashion anyway - over the long term, none of them are. But that's entirely subjective on my part.

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dunge said:

Maybe so, but I still think a major economic screw-up could hurt them, as could looking like they’re actually going to sell off the NHS (Labour tried to convince everyone of that at the last election but it simply wasn’t believable), or selecting the wrong leader when and if Boris leaves. There is plenty that could go wrong for the Tories. Even not coming out against the proposed European Super League could have hurt them - credit to whoever’s advising Boris on that one because they were right on the ball there.

 

At the moment, Boris’s mere presence reminds the people you speak of of how he and his party are the last bastion of protection between them and the dreaded progressives - the ones who wanted to deny us our freedom from the EU, who still want to meddle in our lives and tell us constantly on Twitter what awful people we are for any number of reasons. Similar to how Trump is viewed by many in America but not nearly so dangerous. But I believe that viewpoint can change over time, and I think that’s what Starmer is waiting for while trying not to make enemies in the meantime.

I think you could well be right here.

 

I still have trouble getting my head around such ideological difference though, especially when it comes to a head on issues like basic human rights and ones that are blatantly obviously going to affect everyone regardless of ideology, like any environmental issue.

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Facecloth

Facecloth

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Anti-sleaze bounce! Eight point swing to Labour! Now just 2 points behind!

 

 

bUt yOu OnLy PoSt PoLlS wHeN tHeReS a BiG lEaD fOr ThE tOrIeS lol

You did. Fair play if you're changing :thumbup:

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

The Hartlepool by election polls are eye watering for Labour 

 

Yep. Tories 17% ahead in Hartlepool according to today's poll.

 

Apparently the poll had a small sample and was done a week ago, before much of the sleaze debate.....but also a lot of postal votes already cast.

 

I'd been assuming for weeks that the Tories would win that (fairly close before; big Brexit Party vote breaking 2-1 for the Tories, even though many are ex-Labour).

Also, when the TV folk ask voters in the streets of Hartlepool, they mainly seem to get people saying "I'm usually Labour, but this time Tory / not sure".

That's not a representative sample, clearly, but it certainly isn't a good sign.

 

I'm expecting these elections to be pretty dire for Labour in much of England (with a few exceptions in places like London), maybe not so bad in Wales or Scotland.....but there might not be such a feel-good factor for the Tories in 2022.

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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

The Hartlepool by election polls are eye watering for Labour 

 

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Yep. Tories 17% ahead in Hartlepool according to today's poll.

As Alf says, not a huge sample size so maybe not as clear cut.

(But it is the Corbynista's favourite, Survation)

The poll in full:

 

 

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

As Alf says, not a huge sample size so maybe not as clear cut.

(But it is the Corbynista's favourite, Survation)

The poll in full:

 

 

 

Interesting that there seem to be lots of votes switching from Lab to the 2 independents and to the Greens.

 

Walker is an ex-Labour MP involved with the Northern Independence Party & Lee seems to be standing on a platform for better social provision for the local community.

 

If the poll is anything like accurate, it suggests to me:

1) That most of the (very large) 2019 Brexit Party vote is going Tory, not Lab.....picking a candidate known as a Remainer may be seen as a costly error, with hindsight.

2) There's a feeling that, over decades, electing Labour MPs hasn't yielded much for the area (former Lab voters not wanting to vote Tory, but willing to vote for independents who seem more Left than Right - or for Greens)

 

Medium-term, there's some sort-of-good news in that for Labour. Firstly, those defecting to independents or Greens at a byelection might be recoverable at a general election, with the right policies & presentation. Secondly, those defecting to the Tories due to them "getting Brexit done" might be recoverable as Brexit fades a bit in memories (or if it starts seeming a bad idea) and if the Tory MP doesn't get anything more for Hartlepool than former Labour MPs did. 

 

The bad news for Labour is that the Tories are in power nationally and have an opportunity to divert funds to projects in struggling areas ("levelling up"). Whether they actually do this effectively or whether it's just hot air and a bit of wasted cash is another matter.

 

Also, this reflects badly on Labour in Govt under Blair & Brown - too much caution, too little levelling up on their watch. Because the Lab vote has been declining long-term in such areas. Assuming the seat is lost, it won't just be Starmer's fault or Corbyn's fault, the problem dates back further. After all, the Tories have been in power nationally for 11 years, so there was little that any Lab MP could've achieved in Opposition. The decline in such areas dates back at least to Thatcher in the 80s, if not earlier.....so it's a poor reflection if Labour in Govt 1997-2010 are not perceived as having done more for the area than the Tories have done since then.

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Stoopid

Stoopid

Posted
Posted
On 03/05/2021 at 09:29, Lionator said:

At this stage I don't believe there is anything which would lead to the tories getting less than 40% of the vote. They've constructed a narrative that they are the party for British people and that resonates with those whose British identity is massively important (mainly old and white working classes). People overlook terrible handling of the pandemic, blatant misuse of taxpayer money, lying, childish behaviour amongst other and they're still cool with it because the alternatives are supposedly worse (aka not patriotic enough for them). Why do you think Starmer is sitting in pubs with a pint in his with old white blokes 24/7? Is it because he's a raging patriot (he absolutely isn't) or is this the only way to tap into those votes, who he wont get anyway because they trust tories more, somehow. 

Well, I'm old, white and working-class and would never vote Tory. Nor would most people in Leicester - if the make-up of the city council, local MPs etc is anything to go by. 

I don't really buy this received wisdom about traditional Labour voters switching sides for 'patriotic' (ie nationalistic) reasons.(Leicester also voted against Brexit of course).

Think it's more to do with the gentrifying of Labour in recent times. 

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Voll Blau

Voll Blau

Posted
Posted

Anyone voting in any interesting wards tomorrow?

 

Got a three-day battle between sitting Independent who was cobbed out of the Tory Party but seems to be a well-liked individual round here, Labour and the official Tory candidate.

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stoopid said:

Well, I'm old, white and working-class and would never vote Tory. Nor would most people in Leicester - if the make-up of the city council, local MPs etc is anything to go by. 

I don't really buy this received wisdom about traditional Labour voters switching sides for 'patriotic' (ie nationalistic) reasons.(Leicester also voted against Brexit of course).

Think it's more to do with the gentrifying of Labour in recent times. 

Ok well my experience is different (like everyone's is). I have elderly relatives in the west of the city who have abandoned Labour for the first time in their lives in the past decade because Labour supposedly hate their country and for no other logical reasons.

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bovril

bovril

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

Anyone voting in any interesting wards tomorrow?

 

Got a three-day battle between sitting Independent who was cobbed out of the Tory Party but seems to be a well-liked individual round here, Labour and the official Tory candidate.

Gaywood (real name). Conservatives won it by 2 votes last time. Exciting stuff. 

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