Not The Politics Thread.

[Zear0]

20 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Supposedly un-electable?  Did I miss Corbyn winning an election for Labour?

He won Islington North at least, obviously the rest of the Labour party letting him down.

[thursday_next]

I have talked to maybe 25 voters, 4 Labour and 21 Conservatives (approximately). That piece of political polling, however limited, yields the following results:

 

The Conservative voters are all agreed on two things - they regard the government as 'not able to do a thing right for the sake of doing it wrong' at the outset of the pandemic, and they really really hate woke, which rightly or wrongly is seen as a Labour concept despite the fact that a lot of Labour MP's would secretly rather do without it. 

 

No other explanation is required. Even the Labour voters are split on the question of woke, which makes their ongoing political strategy somewhat flawed. They have to find a way of keeping the young voters on their side while not outraging the other parts of England (the sort that vote). It's a difficult problem, which Labour will fudge until the next election comes. Labour will lose heavily, proving they don't learn, but it's difficult to see any other course they can take.

[Sharpe's Fox]

30 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Supposedly un-electable?  Did I miss Corbyn winning an election for Labour?

gaining 40% of the overall vote under his leadership in a general election is clearly a statistic that shows popular appeal for someone, whatever you think of them. Like I said the Labour candiadate won over half the votes in Hartlepool in 2017.

[Mike Oxlong]

Starmer has the problem of being just too bland. Labour need someone who can connect with and engage voters to get any sort of effective counter arguments across 

[David Guiza]

 

18 minutes ago, thursday_next said:

I have talked to maybe 25 voters, 4 Labour and 21 Conservatives (approximately). That piece of political polling, however limited, yields the following results:

 

The Conservative voters are all agreed on two things - they regard the government as 'not able to do a thing right for the sake of doing it wrong' at the outset of the pandemic, and they really really hate woke, which rightly or wrongly is seen as a Labour concept despite the fact that a lot of Labour MP's would secretly rather do without it. 

 

No other explanation is required. Even the Labour voters are split on the question of woke, which makes their ongoing political strategy somewhat flawed. They have to find a way of keeping the young voters on their side while not outraging the other parts of England (the sort that vote). It's a difficult problem, which Labour will fudge until the next election comes. Labour will lose heavily, proving they don't learn, but it's difficult to see any other course they can take.

 

7 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Starmer has the problem of being just too bland. Labour need someone who can connect with and engage voters to get any sort of effective counter arguments across 

It does feel like Labour would benefit from a modern day Dennis Healy/John Prescott figure to effectively 'put it up 'em' as an antidote to Johnson and co. Johnson's no nonsense, personality politics is a clear vote winner; New Labour benefited similarly with Campbell and Prescott when they were battling against the likes of Hague and Major. I don't particularly want that to happen, but it would seem far more popular with the public than the current approach. Starmer is seemingly either seen as a bit of wet flannel or a smarmy lawyer by a considerable number, and neither of those approaches are going to win an election in a post Trump world. 

 

I quite like the bloke, but that's largely down to his CV rather than his current work, but Starmer trying to win back the Red Wall does rather feel like a former Disney star getting arrested for a minor offence in a desperate attempt to shake off their angelic reputation. 

 

As I mentioned previously, going from Corbyn to being in power was never likely to be done in a one person transition. I wouldn't be surprised to Labour get through at least 1 or 2 leaders before they get close to power again (if ever )

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

 

And we're already building a list of the standard excuses in here

Electoral system tick

Conservatives conning the voters tick

 

 

It's a kind of reverse English-exceptionalism. Support for traditional centre-left parties has fallen all over Europe in the last decade and Labour lost Scotland 10 years ago. But for many Labour members it's only the Northern English who "vote against their interests". Pretty depressing. 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, LVocey said:

Labour have a complete identity crisis at the moment. Do they want to appeal mainly to a northern working class or a more metropolitan electorate? Too early for Keir to be massively held to account for this, he should be in a better position by general election, but needs to establish exactly what the party stand for.

 

I agree that Labour needs to re-establish its identity. But it cannot win elections by mainly appealing to either the northern working class or to a metropolitan electorate, as neither brings in enough seats on its own. They need both.

 

It is perfectly possible to assemble a coalition encompassing voters of more than one kind. Labour did in the past - and the Tories have currently assembled an election-winning coalition of traditional Tory voters from the prosperous shires/small towns and working-class voters from the north and midlands (and the south & Wales). The Tories have lost most seats they used to hold in the big cities - but no longer need them to win elections, due to that coalition that they've assembled.

 

Rightly or wrongly, Labour is now too often perceived as a party for metropolitan voters, educated, white-collar, liberal-minded, often doing OK. They need to keep most of those voters but get back a large proportion of the voters they've lost in deindustrialised towns etc. That's largely the coalition that has won them elections before (ignoring Scotland for now). Under our voting system, there is little alternative - unless they somehow make major inroads in prosperous towns in the South (there are some signs of this, but nowhere near enough and little prospect of major breakthroughs there without completely losing their identity).

 

A better political vision that appeals to those different groups and better presentation of that vision is needed.

Better candidate selection is a small issue, too. They'd have lost Hartlepool anyway, but selecting a candidate rejected by a neighbouring seat and known locally as a prominent Remainer - in one of the most Brexity towns in England - seems a bit clueless. 

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, David Guiza said:

Completely expected result, but still depressing nonetheless. 

 

I completely understand the reasoning behind not voting Labour, the party is in disarray, but why you'd then jump ship to the Tories is beyond me. One must say that the marketing the Tories have done is exceptional, they have somehow convinced the working classes that they are the party for them, despite not actually offering any concrete evidence as to why that is the case. As VB references above, the pressure is now on the party to pay back the faith that they've invested in to them. 

 

It's still very early days into Starmer's leadership, but it really doesn't look pretty. I feel like history is repeating itself and he's effectively going to have to do a the caretaker role that Kinnock did before handing the reigns over to somebody who can hopefully lead them back into power. Though, I fear that Labour will in some way split and there will effectively be one major party in UK politics and a collection of varying degrees of centre & centre left parties splitting the vote even further. 

 

This (the bit in bold).

 

I can understand such voters feeling that Labour didn't do enough for them in Govt or no longer represents them, in various ways. What is amazing is that the Tories have convinced them that they are the alternative!

 

With breathtaking gall, I saw the new Tory MP for Hartlepool announce that it was "time for a change".

Her party has been in Govt for 11 years and her message is "Vote us in yet again - it's time for a change!" 

 

Obviously, I get the point that the "change" is that Hartlepool has had a Labour MP for decades, but still...

 

One thing that Johnson has done very successfully - largely off the back of Brexit & his persona - is to give people the impression that he's leading a different govt to the one that presided between 2010 and 2019.

All those years of austerity, increased inequality, under-investment, slashed public services, mass immigration, Brexit impasse.......all nothing to do with his Tory Govt, apparently. Chameleon-like, the Tory party has made itself "the change".

Let's see if people are satisfied with the change and the levelling-up that they get, now, under this new Tory alternative to the Tory Govt....

[leicsmac]

I do have to commend the Tory PR team. Since the pandemic began they've clearly earned every penny of their wage and more, if these results are any judge.

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

It's not an excuse. I'm just saying it's a reality check for people left of centre that if they don't want to live under Tory rule forever they need to be a bit smarter about how they vote. That's on them.

No I understand why you make the point but it devolves responsibility from the Labour party. Instead of being able to put that coalition together itself, it needs others to essentially defer to it just to keep the other lot out rather than win them round. Nobody was suggesting the LDs should just tell people to vote Labour when Tony Blair was pissing elections. There is a reason people don't vote Labour even if they're dead against the Conservatives

[Ginger_Filbert]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I do have to commend the Tory PR team. Since the pandemic began they've clearly earned every penny of their wage and more, if these results are any judge.

 

[Kopfkino]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I can understand such voters feeling that Labour didn't do enough for them in Govt or no longer represents them, in various ways. What is amazing is that the Tories have convinced them that they are the alternative!

 

With breathtaking gall, I saw the new Tory MP for Hartlepool announce that it was "time for a change".

Her party has been in Govt for 11 years and her message is "Vote us in yet again - it's time for a change!" 

 

But people do see it as a change because Brexit is wedged in the middle and therefore it looks like a departure from the Cameron, Clegg, Blair 00s version of politics. The faff after Brexit undoubtedly amplified it such that, for many, the 2019 outward incarnation of the Conservatives is actual change compared to Conservative to Labour.

 

This is the point the chap in the Guardian made this week, Labour spends too much time fighting past elections and most of the time they miss the boat as a result. Consternation that a party that has been in government for 11 years being able to present itself as the vehicle for change misses that for most people Brexit is a catalyst for change (or an illusion of change) and the Conservatives realigned to take advantage of it. It won't be this easy for them forever, but it remains to be seen if Labour will beat them to the punch for upcoming shifts, either small or large.

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

 

Who said anything about people being easy to dupe? Mostly, over the long term, they're not.

 

As such, to be able to exacerbate the positive and deflect from the negative (like the Covid death toll), to convince enough people that the world spins around them as individuals and them alone (when in a lot of cases, it doesn't) for over a decade takes serious work and understanding of how people tick, and the Tory PR team do deserve what they're getting paid for continuing to deliver that.

 

Labour need to learn on that score, and learn fast.

Edited 7 May 2021 by leicsmac

[urban.spaceman]

[bovril]

Just now, urban.spaceman said:

Which referendum? 

[Sharpe's Fox]

8 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

The Labour Right were challenging Corbyn within 9 months and conniving behind his back in the party machinery to go again after another year. No one serious is saying Starmer should go we are just watching him fail on his own terms.

[Sharpe's Fox]

52 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I do have to commend the Tory PR team. Since the pandemic began they've clearly earned every penny of their wage and more, if these results are any judge.

The Conservative party hire talented people and promote based on ability while Labour have idiots in their party machinery who are only where they are becuase of factionalism. It's no surprise that a party run with no money and dossers running it are losing safe seats.

[Nalis]

46 minutes ago, Ginger_Filbert said:

 

Sad but true, the Tories play the system better.

[Innovindil]

16 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Best part is it's usual labour voters losing their minds. Party is literally eating each other as I type this. Tories don't have to do anything. The labour-left won't give Starmer a chance, so he's already failed. Feel kinda bad for him, all these people saying he needs to do this and that but realistically whilst a big portion of left labour voters won't get on board it doesn't matter what he does, unless he can somehow remind these idiots that if you want to change anything you need power FIRST. 

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, Nalis said:

Sad but true, the Tories play the system better.

This is certainly true, but despite the mockery the Tories make of government with their continued nepotism, Labour need to realise that it is no longer enough to wield this as their prime weapon.

[leicsmac]

Tbh I saw similar arguments in the aftermath of the US election in 2016 to what is happening here (factionalism being the result for a loss, "left eating itself", the right being much better at unity etc). It's true again, too.

 

What represents additional difficulty for Labour here is that Boris isn't an absolute piece of pond life that enables other pieces of pond life in a clear and obvious way like Trump, so they can't rely on him to fvck up in a way that will resonate with enough people. As per above, they need to learn.

[Finnaldo]

4 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Best part is it's usual labour voters losing their minds. Party is literally eating each other as I type this. Tories don't have to do anything. The labour-left won't give Starmer a chance, so he's already failed. Feel kinda bad for him, all these people saying he needs to do this and that but realistically whilst a big portion of left labour voters won't get on board it doesn't matter what he does, unless he can somehow remind these idiots that if you want to change anything you need power FIRST. 

I have a feeling that this will urge Starmer to at least launch some basic policy or platform. Probably his biggest criticism is that he appears apolitical so to launch some basic policies to unite the party would probably do them some good.

[SecretPro]

18 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

I have a feeling that this will urge Starmer to at least launch some basic policy or platform. Probably his biggest criticism is that he appears apolitical so to launch some basic policies to unite the party would probably do them some good.

Think this is the thing. After all his guff about 'turning the party around' he literally hasn;t stamped a single bit of authority on it and has come up, thus far, with zero policy.

 

Id get Burnham in at this stage because he's the only person the left and centrists in the party could back and the bloke has a bit of passion and appetite about him. Starmer is a plank. Like Burnham or not, he would litterally eat up seats in the North at the next GE.

Edited 7 May 2021 by SecretPro

[StanSP]

Bloody hell. If anyone saw the video I posted of the Tory walking through a park in Blackburn, he went and won

 

 

 

[I am Rod Hull]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I do have to commend the Tory PR team. Since the pandemic began they've clearly earned every penny of their wage and more, if these results are any judge.

I know.... 

 

On 05/05/2021 at 18:28, StanSP said:

How do you even go up against this?!

 

 

Edited 7 May 2021 by I am Rod Hull