MoneyBall

[UHDrive]

If you haven't wached this film it's a must. Tongue in cheek film but it conveys an interesting message about how player transfers are done in American baseball. 

 

Our game is excruciatingly tedious and slow, wrapped in red tape and player power/agent power dominated in our football game.

 

What suggestions do people have if we could make the 'transfer window' more effective, fair and efficient? 

 

Personally I'd like to see no player pre agreement deals for top 6 clubs or negotiations until the main transfer window opens.

 

I'd like to see the English player quota revised to take into account the development squad on a club by club scored system. I think it would be fair for clubs trying to get into Europe but more beneficial for English football particularly for teams like us who have a strong development ethos for home grown talent anyway, but are struggling due to the qouta requirements.

 

I'd like to see the transfer window open from the day of the end of the season until the first game of the next season. 

 

Players on international duty should be penalised for dragging out transfer deals which were done prior, and which are oven ready and will only hurt other transfer deals with players further down the transfer line waiting for other exits to other clubs. Imo this is important in short Windows.

 

IMO a time limited measure should be brought in place. For example if a player wants to leave a club he should have to state his intentions and should have a set time period from that point until reaching an agreement in principle with another club. I beleive this would also stop the supply and demand of players behind these moves that genuinely want to move clubs. It would also stop the blockage of other deals that are usually help up behind these deals.

 

Lastly, restrict agents powers and incencitise them instead for player sales. Random idea being to incentivise them to proportionally trade players to lower leugues on a percentage basis of sales. 

 

Yes, slate me for this nonsense, but if it brings some ideas to the table then great! 

[Shamomoa]

Damn thought we had links to a player called Moneyball... #Gerimin!

[CosbehFox]

8 minutes ago, UHDrive said:

If you haven't wached this film it's a must. Tongue in cheek film but it conveys an interesting message about how player transfers are done in American baseball. 

 

Hate to be that shitty arse but it was originally a book. If you like that sort of content, Football Hackers by Christoph Biermann goes into a bit more detailed about the use of stats within football 

[turtmcfly]

2 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Hate to be that shitty arse but it was originally a book. If you like that sort of content, Football Hackers by Christoph Biermann goes into a bit more detailed about the use of stats within football 

 

If you can read a whole book, you can surely get past the first line of his post?

 

 

[Lesta Legend]

12 minutes ago, UHDrive said:

If you haven't wached this film it's a must. Tongue in cheek film but it conveys an interesting message about how player transfers are done in American baseball. 

 

Our game is excruciatingly tedious and slow, wrapped in red tape and player power/agent power dominated in our football game.

 

What suggestions do people have if we could make the 'transfer window' more effective, fair and efficient? 

 

Personally I'd like to see no player pre agreement deals for top 6 clubs or negotiations until the main transfer window opens.

 

I'd like to see the English player quota revised to take into account the development squad on a club by club scored system. I think it would be fair for clubs trying to get into Europe but more beneficial for English football particularly for teams like us who have a strong development ethos for home grown talent anyway, but are struggling due to the qouta requirements.

 

I'd like to see the transfer window open from the day of the end of the season until the first game of the next season. 

 

Players on international duty should be penalised for dragging out transfer deals which were done prior, and which are oven ready and will only hurt other transfer deals with players further down the transfer line waiting for other exits to other clubs. Imo this is important in short Windows.

 

IMO a time limited measure should be brought in place. For example if a player wants to leave a club he should have to state his intentions and should have a set time period from that point until reaching an agreement in principle with another club. I beleive this would also stop the supply and demand of players behind these moves that genuinely want to move clubs. It would also stop the blockage of other deals that are usually help up behind these deals.

 

Lastly, restrict agents powers and incencitise them instead for player sales. Random idea being to incentivise them to proportionally trade players to lower leugues on a percentage basis of sales. 

 

Yes, slate me for this nonsense, but if it brings some ideas to the table then great! 

I do love this film as a stat geek but expected you to refer to Leicester having used this model which brought us similar success. 
 

But I take on board the ease to which transfers are done in this film but I assume that is for the purpose of the film only and not that simple in reality. 

[CosbehFox]

Just now, Lesta Legend said:

I do love this film as a stat geek but expected you to refer to Leicester having used this model which brought us similar success. 
 

But I take on board the ease to which transfers are done in this film but I assume that is for the purpose of the film only and not that simple in reality. 

It's is a lot easier for Baseball. Teams have huge squads assigned to them and constantly chop/change (relegate players down to the minor leagues). 

Also I think with Baseball, the statistics are less open to variables. 

 

To aside the biggest change for me would be that transfers are subject to a stamp duty in a bid to support the lower levels of the pyramid. 

[Dusty]

3 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

It's is a lot easier for Baseball. Teams have huge squads assigned to them and constantly chop/change (relegate players down to the minor leagues). 

Also I think with Baseball, the statistics are less open to variables. 

 

To aside the biggest change for me would be that transfers are subject to a stamp duty in a bid to support the lower levels of the pyramid. 

While I don’t disagree with the idea, would that not just result in even higher transfer fees? 

[Golden Fox]

14 minutes ago, UHDrive said:

If you haven't wached this film it's a must. Tongue in cheek film but it conveys an interesting message about how player transfers are done in American baseball. 

 

Our game is excruciatingly tedious and slow, wrapped in red tape and player power/agent power dominated in our football game.

 

What suggestions do people have if we could make the 'transfer window' more effective, fair and efficient? 

 

Personally I'd like to see no player pre agreement deals for top 6 clubs or negotiations until the main transfer window opens.

 

I'd like to see the English player quota revised to take into account the development squad on a club by club scored system. I think it would be fair for clubs trying to get into Europe but more beneficial for English football particularly for teams like us who have a strong development ethos for home grown talent anyway, but are struggling due to the qouta requirements.

 

I'd like to see the transfer window open from the day of the end of the season until the first game of the next season. 

 

Players on international duty should be penalised for dragging out transfer deals which were done prior, and which are oven ready and will only hurt other transfer deals with players further down the transfer line waiting for other exits to other clubs. Imo this is important in short Windows.

 

IMO a time limited measure should be brought in place. For example if a player wants to leave a club he should have to state his intentions and should have a set time period from that point until reaching an agreement in principle with another club. I beleive this would also stop the supply and demand of players behind these moves that genuinely want to move clubs. It would also stop the blockage of other deals that are usually help up behind these deals.

 

Lastly, restrict agents powers and incencitise them instead for player sales. Random idea being to incentivise them to proportionally trade players to lower leugues on a percentage basis of sales. 

 

Yes, slate me for this nonsense, but if it brings some ideas to the table then great! 

Ultimately, MLB is a cartel, and has legal dispensation to act as such - on the basis there is Collective Bargaining with the players union. MLB can set all sorts of rules in terms of salaries, length of contracts, drafting of players etc. and has the power to back them up if broken.

 

Football is basically open warfare in comparison. Not only are teams competing against other teams for players, but also leagues competing against each other & FIFA & UEFA have limited power over clubs. And when you have national states beind some of these teams in various leagues, the money at the top is phenomenal. So many of the factors you have mentioned are done to make someone even more money, very difficult to unwind.

 

Anything the Premier League does to increase fairness (e.g. a salary cap), will harm the Premier League compared to other European clubs.

 

The clear answer to this would be to ringfence a number of clubs of a similar nature and bring in rules that can apply to them all without harming their overall stature. This is what the whole Superleague is about, so be careful what you wish for!!!

 

My answer - although I appreciate its not going to happen - is that football needs a fairer distribution of Champions League money. The money generated needs to be filtered down more fairly to all teams in the league, and filtered down to all teams in the country, as they all support the league structure - having tens of millions going to a handful of clubs that qualify is what has distorted the market. To even up the resources held by each club would make it a more open marketplace which should, in theory make it easier to operate.

 

 

[CosbehFox]

6 minutes ago, Dusty said:

While I don’t disagree with the idea, would that not just result in even higher transfer fees? 

If you make it a stepped scale like the stamp duty we have this country, it would encourage clubs to be sensible and not keep pushing them higher and higher. I suppose it would have an impact on say a club like ourselves because we couldn't fleece Man U for £80mil for example. 

 

Numerous people have mentioned here the real thing that needs reshaping is the wages (the recent thing with Barca IMO is a good thing and what leagues should be striving for). It's already started and it will increase, players are going to go on frees or run their contracts down as outside of the PL, there appears to be not many clubs capable to splash transfer fees. 

[Glorious Leicester Fan]

This might sound contradictory, but I’m my experience ( I work as a data scientist), data folk are pretty cautious when championing the ‘power’ of statistics, especially in regards to predicting a players ability. 
 

At a basic/ descriptive level, they can help considerable. But some of the  statistical/computational models I’ve seen to prove a player’s ability are crazy.  

 

I do think there’s an increasing tendency to see football as a science, which objective truth about a player can be extrapolated from a statistical analysis. 

 

This is obviously false. Also, I don’t think any of would actually want that. It’s the agency and subjectiveness that makes the game; two principles that statistical struggle with. 
 

 

Edited 22 June 2022 by Glorious Leicester Fan

[MarriedaLeicesterGirl]

1 minute ago, Glorious Leicester Fan said:

This might sound contradictory, but I’m my experience ( I’m a dats scientist), data    folk are pretty cautious when extolling the ‘power’ of statistics, especially in regards to predicting a players potential. 
 

At a basic/ descriptive level, they can help considerable. But some of the  statistical/computational models I’ve seen to prove a player’s potential are crazy.  

 

I do think there’s an increasing tendency to see football as a science, which objective truth about a player can be extrapolated from a statistical analysis. 

 

This is obviously false. Also, I don’t think any of would actually want that. It’s the agency and subjectiveness that makes the game; two principles that statistical struggle with. 
 

 

Yeah, you're absolutely right. Football is also very different than American sports, since it is more fluid, both off the ball and with the ball.

 

Also, the Moneyball formula really only gives you a competitive edge if you are the only one doing it. Now everyone is doing it.

[sacreblueits442]

29 minutes ago, Lesta Legend said:

I do love this film as a stat geek but expected you to refer to Leicester having used this model which brought us similar success. 
 

But I take on board the ease to which transfers are done in this film but I assume that is for the purpose of the film only and not that simple in reality. 

..wasn't it to do with trading players, as they looked to bring in players who would have been classed as underperfoming but had strengths in certain departments!!!

  You would think the trading would be easy as the players chosen for certain attributes would not have commanded much respect in their current team.

[Babylon]

1 hour ago, MarriedaLeicesterGirl said:

Also, the Moneyball formula really only gives you a competitive edge if you are the only one doing it. Now everyone is doing it.

See us in the Championship when we created our own software before everyone else got it handed on a plate a few years later by scouting websites etc.

[Sly]

Brentford did this really well in the early days. 

[Lambert09]

the problem is that every club looks heavily at statistics these days.  The best clubs are the ones that can combine that with actually having a good eye for what the player can do outside of stats, the view of potential and of course personality fits. 

 

 

Stats in something like baseball are cleaner than football. Of course you’ll have good take-on stats in scotland against someone who can’t tackle, but would struggle in a more physical league. That’s why good old fashioned judgement will always be needed, on top of the numbers.

 

even when people build in handicaps for leagues it struggles to truly represent the quality.  Do they balance for form? removing the truly exceptional days and the truly poor ones… we’ve all seen a game where the same player who’s usually great loses the ball 20 times. or the game where after a goal someone like schlupp looks unplayable. 

 

Im sure these things will continue to improve and they certainly tell a good story but my point is we still need someone to see beyond numbers as well. 

 

 

Edited 22 June 2022 by Lambert09

[sylofox]

From my point of view ffp is a total joke. All it's done has kept the status quo. Those with the biggest budget still have that. We cant break into that even Newcastle will struggle. As you can only increase wages by a % year on year.

 

Safe guard the clubs yes. But if Top wants to waste a billion that's up to him. But he can only regain it by natural profits with no interest.

 

Ffp is here to protect the status quo not to help smaller clubs climb the ladder.

 

It's all business now. Imagine telling an owner of an engineering company he can't buy the latest machine to boost profits.

 

I know it's not that simple. But ffs ffp is a restrained of trade loaded towards the big clubs.

[CrispinLA in Texas]

So many great quotes in Moneyball.

3 really good ones.

 

"The day you say, 'I have to do something, 'you're in trouble. Because you are going to make a bad deal. You can always recover from the player you didn't sign. You may never recover from the player you signed at the wrong price"

 

"The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of garbage, and then there's us. It's an unfair game. And now we've been gutted. We're like the organ donors for the rich"

 

"Your goal shouldn't be to buy players. Your goal should be to buy wins. In order to buy wins you need to buy runs" (goals for Leicester)

 

 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

Gil Brandt, who was Director of Player Personnel for Dallas Cowboys for many years, and who was one of the first to use computer programs to analyse players statistically, had this to say,

 

"Competitiveness is the most important aspect and that's sometimes hard to test. The only measurement you can use at all is something that's relevant to the position he plays. We spend a lot of time and money measuring things that have no relevance to what a player will do."

 

 

[TeaMen Tom]

Beane is big soccer/football fan. Interesting to note that the A's are cheaping it out this season. They traded their best players and are in the process of retooling. Their fans are starting to rebel however, refusing to attend games because ownership this season is basically refusing to invest money back into the team.  They're also threatening to move the team to Las Vegas because the city of Oakland won't help build a new stadium.

[KFS]

11 minutes ago, TeaMen Tom said:

Beane is big soccer/football fan. Interesting to note that the A's are cheaping it out this season. They traded their best players and are in the process of retooling. Their fans are starting to rebel however, refusing to attend games because ownership this season is basically refusing to invest money back into the team.  They're also threatening to move the team to Las Vegas because the city of Oakland won't help build a new stadium.

Ironically since the Yankees ditched some of the fan favourite big money stars in favour for some hungry fresh faces, they’re the best team in baseball this year… Picking up a 36 year old guy released by the Cardinals who now has the best hit ratio in the whole league. Sport is funny isn’t it? 

[TeaMen Tom]

11 minutes ago, KFS said:

Ironically since the Yankees ditched some of the fan favourite big money stars in favour for some hungry fresh faces, they’re the best team in baseball this year… Picking up a 36 year old guy released by the Cardinals who now has the best hit ratio in the whole league. Sport is funny isn’t it? 

As a Red Sox fan, I find Boston's approach this season interesting. They're refusing to extend the contracts of their two best players, one of whom, Raphael Devers, is a legitimate superstar. Both of course, want mega bucks. Keeping in mind the owner, John Henry, of course, runs Liverpool. The Red Sox have embraced the Moneyball approach as their current GM cut his teeth with Tampa - a team that's right down there with the A's in terms of total payroll, but one that has had more success in recent years.  Henry has said that handing out these massive contracts usually doesn't work out well for the team in MLB, wheras football is a little different story, as you do have to spend - but on the right guys.

Edited 23 June 2022 by TeaMen Tom

[KFS]

2 minutes ago, TeaMen Tom said:

As a Red Sox fan, I find Boston's approach this season interesting. They're refusing to extend the contracts of their two best players, one of whom, Raphael Devers, is a legitimate superstar. Both of course, want mega bucks. Keeping in mind the owner, John Henry, of course, runs Liverpool. The Red Sox have embraced the Moneyball approach as their current GM cut his teeth with Tampa - a team that's right down there with the A's in terms of total payroll, but one that has had more success in recent years.  Henry has said that handing out these massive contracts usually doesn't work out well for the team in MLB, wheras football is a little different story, as you do have to spend - but on the right guys.

Yeah Tampa have been a jolt to the system. Imagine they won the AL East last year with a pitching payroll totalling the same amount as one Yankee… 
 

I agree, it’s shit and a massive turnoff that football is an investment led sport really. Our story aside of course  

[Jon the Hat]

Players are employees with contracts.  They are already more restricted than employees in any other business, and I think it would be wrong to restrict them any more.  I suspect however Football will eventually decide to lock out agents purely because they want to keep all the money.

[bmt]

Worked well for Liverpool

[BenTheFox]

HE GETS ON BASE!!