Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
 Share
vanity

What does LC need to become a top-6 side?

By vanity, in Leicester City Forum

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
vanity

vanity

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

What do people think we need? I was curious, so I took a look at the numbers (Arsenal-Chelsea game on 1/3 not included).

 

Attack

This season, LCFC projects to score as many goals as any 6th place finisher the last five years (perhaps longer, I didn't check further).

 

2017-2018, 69 points, 69-47 (F/A) (Arsenal projected)

2017-2018, 52 points, 59-55 (Leicester City projected)

2016-2017, 69 points, 54-29

2015-2016, 62 points, 52-48

2014-2015, 63 points, 59-41

2013-2014, 69 points, 55-51

2012-2013, 63 points, 55-40

 

This season appears to be an unusually high-scoring season. Perhaps it is an outlier, perhaps it is the consequence of more money in the league and the new norm, we cannot know. However, Leicester projects to score more goals than the 6th place finisher in 4 of the last 5 seasons. And we don't even have Silva integrated yet, so it is still my hope we can hit 65-70, which is where we need to be. We have a great run of games against rather ordinary sides the 2H of this season, and I anticipate LC scoring more frequently as a consequence.

 

Defense

Unfortunately, we are also on pace to concede more goals than any sixth place finisher over that period of time due to our failings with set pieces. On average, the sixth place finisher the last five seasons plus Arsenal's projection this season is approximately 43. We project to 55. We have allowed 17 goals in free play, same as Arsenal and Liverpool. Our problem is almost entirely set pieces -- we have allowed 12 goals on set pieces, while teams at our level should allow between 4-5.  If we could reach that level, then we would be right there with Liverpool and Arsenal in goals allowed. 

 

Conclusion

We are very close to fitting the statistical profile of a top-6 side.

 

- LC projects as a better attacking side than any sixth place finisher the last five seasons, and if the lads could become closer to average on set pieces (nine Prem sides have allowed 5 or fewer to this point in the season), LC would find itself in the low-40s in goals allowed over a season, which would make LCFC competitive for a top-6 finish most seasons. That being said, this season is unusually high-scoring from what I can see, and we will have to see if this season is an outlier or the beginning of a new trend.

 

- We clearly need to improve set piece defense, we will need to see if Dragovic helps with that if Wes is out for any length of time. If we find ourselves with the opportunity to pay for a CB or RB we believe can play at an elite level, I think we should pull the trigger this window. I suspect we will wind up replacing Iborra with Silva, or we may look to start substituting Iborra with Matty James later in games if we have a lead to protect. Those small changes may yield some results in goals against, but I think that everyone except Maguire on the backline is eligible for replacement, either this window or next.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lcfccon

Lcfccon

Posted
Posted

I don't think we are far off the quality needed to become a top 6 club. Our first team is on it's day a top 4 team, but then the next we can't beat palace... I think add a bit more strength into the squad, let Puel have the rest of this season to get his style implemented and if all goes well...I think next season could be rather fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vacamion

Vacamion

Posted
Posted

 

Referring to our club as LC and using the singular rather than the plural makes it difficult for me to attempt to read any of the rest you wrote.

 

"What does LC need..."

 

Really?

 

Brad Bobley is in the house.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
StriderHiryu

StriderHiryu

Posted
Posted

Next season it might be possible. Arsenal could lose Sanchez, Ozil and Wilshere and whilst they will spend money, I don't think they will bring in quite the same calibre of player, which might open up 6th spot.

 

But we need to keep all of our top players too. It will be hard to keep Riyad this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted

Great post @vanity

 

Looking at those stats set piece defending is really letting us down. They're a really soft way of letting in goals as well. Any good organised team should be able to keep them to a minimum especially as we've been playing with two big centre halves and Iborra and Ndidi for most of the season who are both six foot plus.

 

Hopefully it's something the analysis guys are studying and Puel and the players are working on. 

 

You can accept conceding goals to good football in open play but conceding from corners and free kicks into the box there is always blame. I remember the Martin O'Neill side stat of not conceding a headed goal until February one season. We need to try and stop conceding so many soft goals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Suzie the Fox

Suzie the Fox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vanity said:

What do people think we need? I was curious, so I took a look at the numbers (Arsenal-Chelsea game on 1/3 not included).

 

Attack

This season, LCFC projects to score as many goals as any 6th place finisher the last five years (perhaps longer, I didn't check further).

 

2017-2018, 69 points, 69-47 (F/A) (Arsenal projected)

2017-2018, 52 points, 59-55 (Leicester City projected)

2016-2017, 69 points, 54-29

2015-2016, 62 points, 52-48

2014-2015, 63 points, 59-41

2013-2014, 69 points, 55-51

2012-2013, 63 points, 55-40

 

This season appears to be an unusually high-scoring season. Perhaps it is an outlier, perhaps it is the consequence of more money in the league and the new norm, we cannot know. However, Leicester projects to score more goals than the 6th place finisher in 4 of the last 5 seasons. And we don't even have Silva integrated yet, so it is still my hope we can hit 65-70, which is where we need to be. We have a great run of games against rather ordinary sides the 2H of this season, and I anticipate LC scoring more frequently as a consequence.

 

Defense

Unfortunately, we are also on pace to concede more goals than any sixth place finisher over that period of time due to our failings with set pieces. On average, the sixth place finisher the last five seasons plus Arsenal's projection this season is approximately 43. We project to 55. We have allowed 17 goals in free play, same as Arsenal and Liverpool. Our problem is almost entirely set pieces -- we have allowed 12 goals on set pieces, while teams at our level should allow between 4-5.  If we could reach that level, then we would be right there with Liverpool and Arsenal in goals allowed. 

 

Conclusion

We are very close to fitting the statistical profile of a top-6 side.

 

- LC projects as a better attacking side than any sixth place finisher the last five seasons, and if the lads could become closer to average on set pieces (nine Prem sides have allowed 5 or fewer to this point in the season), LC would find itself in the low-40s in goals allowed over a season, which would make LCFC competitive for a top-6 finish most seasons. That being said, this season is unusually high-scoring from what I can see, and we will have to see if this season is an outlier or the beginning of a new trend.

 

- We clearly need to improve set piece defense, we will need to see if Dragovic helps with that if Wes is out for any length of time. If we find ourselves with the opportunity to pay for a CB or RB we believe can play at an elite level, I think we should pull the trigger this window. I suspect we will wind up replacing Iborra with Silva, or we may look to start substituting Iborra with Matty James later in games if we have a lead to protect. Those small changes may yield some results in goals against, but I think that everyone except Maguire on the backline is eligible for replacement, either this window or next.

Very interesting read. And not what I was expecting when you see it in black and white. 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wymsey

Wymsey

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psychonaut said:

About £200 million, twice the wage bill and to move the ground to either London or Manchester.

Are the owners willing to be in a eventual position to raise such a moneybag to make the club furthermore competitive at the top?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stadt

Stadt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sustained intelligent recruitment coupled with investment - recent signings have been very hit and miss, it doesn’t matter how much or how little is spent if a club routinely signs a poor fit. Analytics are absolutely crucial in both profiling players and identifying them. Moreover, there needs to be clear communication between the coaching staff and recruitment team. Which is something that doesn’t appear to have been present since Pearson was manager and Walsh was joint assistant manager/head of recruitment.

 

The composition of our squad is mostly A) Old or B) Very young. This needs to be addressed; as brilliant as Vardy, Fuchs, Morgan, Huth, Okazaki, Iborra and Simpson have been these aren’t players that are going to be able to perform at the same level for another 3/4 years. It seems a long time but short termist thinking is severely damaging which is mostly why Swansea are struggling now and Man City didn’t win anything last season - their squads were unbalanced and lacked players they needed.

Edited by Wookie
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted

Consistently recruit good players at a good price and use that concept to gradually progress, with a good coach who can consistently get these players playing together. So many ways you can do that, but as long as you stick to those pretty basic principles you'll only go one way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...