Corona Virus

[Leicester_Loyal]

Emily Thornberry, more interested in just slagging off Trump and the USA rather than discussing how we can help minimise the spread of this.

[reynard]

1 hour ago, bmt said:

Agree with this, we need to get a real control of it and then relax some but not all measures and act very proactively and sensibly until the vaccine is found.

 

This will in turn keep critical care capacity available and also slowly build resistance even without the vaccine, as some people will continue to get it.

There is no 100% certainty that a vaccine will be found which works.

The game changers before that could well be the development of successful anti-viral drugs which help those infected to recover more quickly but which probably be needed to be administered quite early in the disease.

The development of a successful antibody test which could be used to track those who had had the virus but who were recovered but had not been tested.

One of the deputy medical officers of the UK has said there is no way of ruling out the current measures being in place for a year though several months was perhaps more likely.

[bmt]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

There is no 100% certainty that a vaccine will be found which works.

The game changers before that could well be the development of successful anti-viral drugs which help those infected to recover more quickly but which probably be needed to be administered quite early in the disease.

The development of a successful antibody test which could be used to track those who had had the virus but who were recovered but had not been tested.

One of the deputy medical officers of the UK has said there is no way of ruling out the current measures being in place for a year though several months was perhaps more likely.

From the sounds of it this is well underway, I agree with everything you've said but vaccine is also possible.

[reynard]

1 minute ago, bmt said:

From the sounds of it this is well underway, I agree with everything you've said but vaccine is also possible.

It is certainly possible and live trials have just got underway with a very small number of people in the US, I think, but we are probably 18 months away from any potential mass deployment.

[Rain King]

Standard insurance policies only cover for specified diseases. You'll struggle to find many policies worldwide including cover for new diseases/illnesses.

Everyone talking about Business Interruption too, this would only come in to play for an insured peril specified in the wording.

[Bayfox]

1 hour ago, bmt said:

Sorry that makes zero sense. Them being at home is far safer as they can only infect those in immediate contact.

Most kids are believed to be carriers but suffer no I'll effects. Those in immediate contact at schools are in the majority their peers, who again are unlikely to suffer to badly, them bei g at home passing it to adults makes things much worse.

 

As the symptoms take weeks to show, you would have already contracted it and passed it on to your work colleagues etc anyway.

 

Great if you and the wife can afford to weeks off work and sit at home just you and the kids, if you could pre determine 1 of you had symptoms, but in the main completely impractical. 

 

Keeping keeps away from your grandparents etc or those with health issues in the main is a positive step. 

 

Sitting at home hoping they are correct that you gain immunity is still a guessing game.

As theres no clear evidence to say you can't suffer again just a hint.

 

I'm not saying it's ideal, but what the other countries are doing doesn't seem to have been a great solution either looking at the likes of Italy's death toll.

 

Many won't be able to afford to self isolate or socially distance from each other for a sustained period of time.

 

It's a way of reducing the risk to the most vulnerable.

 

Unless we go full lock down and send drones up to monitor activity like the Italians have attempted, but then we know what comes next, is crime and looting.

 

Attempting to keep those least vulnerable carrying on as best we can has to have some benefit.

[CosbehFox]

The supermarkets simply need to stop profiteering and insert some control. There are effectively a hive of infection if you think about. Start implementing maximum capacities, time slots and restrictions on quantities. People will get caught out by being fair unless they don't carry out some actions. 

[Guest MattP]

13 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Currently sat on a bus and lots of over 70s didn't get the memo. We're going to have a situation where we'll all be self isolating and the most vulnerable carry on as normal. 

Group of pensioners in the shop when I was getting a paper today and one of them said something along the lines of "well somethings going to get you anyway"

 

If you were 80 plus though would you care? Might be dead in six months anyway.

[blabyboy]

From the BBC at present:

 

Quote

 

The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".

A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.

The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.

Its calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.

Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.

However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.

Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.

The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.

We are in this for the long haul.

 

*bolding is my emphasis.

[Ollie93]

6 minutes ago, nnfox said:

Do we?

 

The WHO advice is to test every suspected case, regardless of severity.  They also say that every person the patient has  had contact with in the previous 48hrs should also be tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not.  That is a lot of work.

 

Setting up drive through test centres won't guarantee that people that should be tested will be tested.

 

We are told how the NHS aren't going to be able to cope. I for one, would prefer my NHS staff in the hospitals trying to prevent the sick from dying.  Not clocking up hundreds of miles chasing down people who have it but don't need medical intervention.

 

I'm sure if we could we would, but we can't.  Even if we tried it, we'd still only get a fraction of what would be required to be truly meaningful.

Agreed. So how have South Korea managed extensive testing? Granted cases will always slip through the net, that's inevitable, however, in any case the more data the better. Only testing people who are admitted to hospital is surely too late. I just don't see a reason in the 21st century how extensive testing could not be carried out. 

 

Certain countries are using thermal technology or fever tests at airports and other borders. Why aren't the UK? the budget pledged £30bn to help tackle this, you're telling me that some of that can't be issued to a private firm who could carry out testing? Leaving the NHS staff, like you say, in the hospitals? It is easy for everyone to say "well thats a lot of work so theres no point in trying".

[nnfox]

22 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

The other concern is that it's a huge dick move to anybody who works in hospitality:  The Prime Minister has effectively dropped a bomb on their finances but by only making it 'advice' instead of issuing an edict there are few if any legal avenues for businesses to recoup losses and leaves hundreds of thousands of people at risk of redundancy.

The decision to ask people to stay away has more to do with law and order than business. 

 

It is very difficult for our population to be told to do something.  This method gets the same result in a different, less heavy handed way.

 

The request of us to stay away made yesterday was step 1 of the plan to stop people going out at night and socialising.  The government will have steps 2,3,4,5 & 6 ready to go.

 

I would expect the chancellor to make some announcement about financial help for the hospitality industry very soon. Then when most pubs and restaurants have been closed down "voluntarily" we'll get the order that everything has to shut down.  By then, maybe this weekend, enough of the public and businesses will have gotten their heads around it and the last few that defy the order can be dealt with by the police.  

 

The police will have a major say in how all this pans out.  Focussing their resources on small tasks gives them a chance of achieving the objectives in a timely manner.  Trying to get the police to enforce on an immediate blanket ban would be impossible.

[CosbehFox]

I am not the multiple months line before it returns to normality. Ultimately we can't worry about months time. We should simply worry about the be here and now. A vaccine may not be available or an anti-viral, but we will have more data to supervise how the virus spreads, who it attacks in different degrees. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

The only way isolation will happen is if it is forced, otherwise people will just continue to go about their daily business, even the OAPs and the high risk groups.

[blabyboy]

1 minute ago, Ollie93 said:

Agreed. So how have South Korea managed extensive testing? Granted cases will always slip through the net, that's inevitable, however, in any case the more data the better. Only testing people who are admitted to hospital is surely too late. I just don't see a reason in the 21st century how extensive testing could not be carried out. 

 

Certain countries are using thermal technology or fever tests at airports and other borders. Why aren't the UK? the budget pledged £30bn to help tackle this, you're telling me that some of that can't be issued to a private firm who could carry out testing? Leaving the NHS staff, like you say, in the hospitals? It is easy for everyone to say "well thats a lot of work so theres no point in trying".

SK has the resources - technical and physical to do it, and the social mindset (living next door to NK)

We don't. I agree more data would be better, that's why the UK is focusing on the secondary testing.. ID who has had it did they survive? what medical measures did they receive? Does their sample show signs of mutation?

 

£30Billions sounds a lot - it is - but its not like that is just dumped on the UK overnight in a phyiscal form that can immediately do something. Even private firms would need to get the people, train them up, then deploy them... it takes time.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Shouldn't Corbyn be self islolating? Seen a couple of suggestions he should be at the table with BJ, but he's 70 years old.

 

[Deeg67]

28 minutes ago, nnfox said:

You have valid points, but this isn't a one size fits all problem.  Testing everything that moves is a much easier task when you are working in a relatively small geographical area as you can draft professionals in from around the country.  When suspected cases are spread out throughout the whole nation, then test, test, test becomes a lot harder.

South Korea is 100K square kilometres, England is 130K.  South Korea has 51 million people, England has 56 million.  I fail to see the difference as being meaningful in this case.  And in fact, South Korea did test around the entire country almost from the beginning, although obviously they concentrated their efforts in areas of potential hotspots.

[blabyboy]

Quote

 

The request of us to stay away made yesterday was step 1 of the plan to stop people going out at night and socialising.  The government will have steps 2,3,4,5 & 6 ready to go.

 

I would expect the chancellor to make some announcement about financial help for the hospitality industry very soon. Then when most pubs and restaurants have been closed down "voluntarily" we'll get the order that everything has to shut down.  By then, maybe this weekend, enough of the public and businesses will have gotten their heads around it and the last few that defy the order can be dealt with by the police. 

 

Expect the next few daily updates to be just like this.. it's all about giving the public enough information in small chunks before moving onto the next one. Too much in one go and you get a repeat of ToiletRollamegeddon.

[leicsmac]

16 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Emily Thornberry, more interested in just slagging off Trump and the USA rather than discussing how we can help minimise the spread of this.

He certainly should be pilloried for various aspects of his response to all this, but such should probably be left to the Americans, yes.

[nnfox]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The only way isolation will happen is if it is forced, otherwise people will just continue to go about their daily business, even the OAPs and the high risk groups.

This is correct.  I think that actual isolation doesn't necessarily have to happen yet.  I'm sure the behavioural scientists are heavily involved with this particular policy.

 

In this circumstance the government need to take the public with them on this journey.  Forcing people would be unenforceable if you just dropped a ban on them.

[Deeg67]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

He certainly should be pilloried for various aspects of his response to all this, but such should probably be left to the Americans, yes.

We're on it.

[nnfox]

5 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

SK has the resources - technical and physical to do it, and the social mindset (living next door to NK)

We don't. I agree more data would be better, that's why the UK is focusing on the secondary testing.. ID who has had it did they survive? what medical measures did they receive? Does their sample show signs of mutation?

 

£30Billions sounds a lot - it is - but its not like that is just dumped on the UK overnight in a phyiscal form that can immediately do something. Even private firms would need to get the people, train them up, then deploy them... it takes time.

This.

 

4 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

South Korea is 100K square kilometres, England is 130K.  South Korea has 51 million people, England has 56 million.  I fail to see the difference as being meaningful in this case.  And in fact, South Korea did test around the entire country almost from the beginning, although obviously they concentrated their efforts in areas of potential hotspots.

And this.

[bmt]

3 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

South Korea is 100K square kilometres, England is 130K.  South Korea has 51 million people, England has 56 million.  I fail to see the difference as being meaningful in this case.  And in fact, South Korea did test around the entire country almost from the beginning, although obviously they concentrated their efforts in areas of potential hotspots.

Whilst I agree with the approach, South Korea has spent the last few years building up testing capacity due to being caught short previously so they were in a better position to do it. We have made no real changes to increase our capacity to do these things over the past few months though which is where the real problem is.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

10 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The only way isolation will happen is if it is forced, otherwise people will just continue to go about their daily business, even the OAPs and the high risk groups.

Yep, Boris says "work from home", my employer's response? "See you in the morning". 

 

Banging. 

[Carl the Llama]

2 minutes ago, nnfox said:

The decision to ask people to stay away has more to do with law and order than business. 

 

It is very difficult for our population to be told to do something.  This method gets the same result in a different, less heavy handed way.

 

The request of us to stay away made yesterday was step 1 of the plan to stop people going out at night and socialising.  The government will have steps 2,3,4,5 & 6 ready to go.

 

I would expect the chancellor to make some announcement about financial help for the hospitality industry very soon. Then when most pubs and restaurants have been closed down "voluntarily" we'll get the order that everything has to shut down.  By then, maybe this weekend, enough of the public and businesses will have gotten their heads around it and the last few that defy the order can be dealt with by the police.  

 

The police will have a major say in how all this pans out.  Focussing their resources on small tasks gives them a chance of achieving the objectives in a timely manner.  Trying to get the police to enforce on an immediate blanket ban would be impossible.

I hope you're right, the measures due to be announced today will tell us how much they plan on supporting the industry.  The budget offered very little despite it already being clear where we're headed.

[bmt]

I'm not sure I understand how tests work atm. Is it possible to test everyone who is it positive with a high degree of success, symptoms or not?