Corona Virus

[Deeg67]

ISIS has issued a travel alert, warning its members to avoid Europe.

 

https://t.co/sMWvDjWAta

[bmt]

7 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

The people just REEEEEEEEing at "tHe GoVeRnMeNt" are grating on me already. Firstly, ANY government no matter what the party allegiance would just be following the advice of the top scientists, that's pretty fvcking obvious. Secondly, you know the same people will be the first to be moaning when there's a lockdown, a full travel ban and the purchase of good is limited. 

I've criticised the government very heavily and I don't agree with you at all. Like everything where there has to be a political decision (economics, environment etc.) there are always competing 'Top scientists'. It just so happens our government followed the ones which tie in most with businesses taking priority over people, and just a couple of days later we have had to admit we were wrong (while now following the joint worst trajectory in the world for coronavirus deaths with Spain and having zero idea how many cases we actually have in the country). Measures to slow down the virus will now be much less effective due to those stupid steps we have taken.

 

I won't moan about a lockdown, have cancelled all plans to travel til next year and haven't panic bought anything because I'm not a selfish ****.

 

Anyone who doesn't think that people have the right to criticise the steps of this quite frankly inept government, or trying to make out that people are stupid (in fact I think that REEE thing is meant to show autism) are ridiculous. Have some respect.

[Ollie93]

17 minutes ago, Fktf said:

Here's the modelling the current advice is being based on. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf. The results can be a bit heavy going, but the first and last few pages give a decent summary of what was looked at, and what the model predicts.

 

The upshot is we've altered course quite dramatically. The modelling for mitigation (the 'herd immunity idea') showed the capacity of the healthcare system would be exceeded 8 times over. The more strict measures we're seeing (and are going to see in the coming days) are to suppress transmission of the disease so the numbers start to fall. 

 

I suspect 12 weeks hasn't been mentioned because there's no exit strategy if you suppress the disease. The models show that lifting restrictions (without there being a viable vaccine or treatment) just see the virus reappear quickly. 

@Toddybad this is what I was saying with the re-spread when quarantine is lifted.

[StanSP]

23 minutes ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

I work at a School and we're starting to get a noticeable number of staff members and pupils off. Feeling a bit like a sitting duck! 

Get the OHP out! Bet they're obsolete now

 

4 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

ISIS has issued a travel alert, warning its members to avoid Europe.

 

https://t.co/sMWvDjWAta

That's so nice of them. Very caring for their workforce. 

[Lionator]

17 minutes ago, Fktf said:

Here's the modelling the current advice is being based on. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf. The results can be a bit heavy going, but the first and last few pages give a decent summary of what was looked at, and what the model predicts.

 

The upshot is we've altered course quite dramatically. The modelling for mitigation (the 'herd immunity idea') showed the capacity of the healthcare system would be exceeded 8 times over. The more strict measures we're seeing (and are going to see in the coming days) are to suppress transmission of the disease so the numbers start to fall. 

 

I suspect 12 weeks hasn't been mentioned because there's no exit strategy if you suppress the disease. The models show that lifting restrictions (without there being a viable vaccine or treatment) just see the virus reappear quickly. 

It's terrifying that this could last until a vaccine is found. I am confident that wont be the case though. The article suggests that once numbers dwindle, the South Korean testing and tracing approach can be adopted which is encouraging but over the long term you may find it to be like a on/off tap of social distancing based on numbers.

[bmt]

5 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It's terrifying that this could last until a vaccine is found. I am confident that wont be the case though. The article suggests that once numbers dwindle, the South Korean testing and tracing approach can be adopted which is encouraging but over the long term you may find it to be like a on/off tap of social distancing based on numbers.

Agree with this, we need to get a real control of it and then relax some but not all measures and act very proactively and sensibly until the vaccine is found.

 

This will in turn keep critical care capacity available and also slowly build resistance even without the vaccine, as some people will continue to get it.

Edited 17 March 2020 by bmt

[Toddybad]

20 minutes ago, Ollie93 said:

@Toddybad this is what I was saying with the re-spread when quarantine is lifted.

Quarantine won't be lifted for 12-18 months. Until there's a vaccine.

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Toddybad said:

Quarantine won't be lifted for 12-18 months. Until there's a vaccine.

If there's a vaccine. 

[yorkie1999]

29 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

The people just REEEEEEEEing at "tHe GoVeRnMeNt" are grating on me already. Firstly, ANY government no matter what the party allegiance would just be following the advice of the top scientists, that's pretty fvcking obvious. Secondly, you know the same people will be the first to be moaning when there's a lockdown, a full travel ban and the purchase of good is limited. 

What if our top scientists are wrong. Every other government, who are also advised by scientists, appears to be battening down the hatches. And if lockdown is inevitable, all we've done is bought ourselves a couple of weeks and increased the amount of people with it who'll now be dying at home.

[bmt]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

If there's a vaccine. 

True, but by acting in phases you could control the spread multiple times hopefully creating immunity anyway.

[Dahnsouff]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

What if our top scientists are wrong. Every other government, who are also advised by scientists, appears to be battening down the hatches. And if lockdown is inevitable, all we've done is bought ourselves a couple of weeks and increased the amount of people with it who'll now be dying at home.

The nature of the country (KINGDOM) is substantially different most of the rest of Europe in as much as we are an Island. Sure, transport shrinks the map but it does not changes the geography.

Not sure if it plays a part in scientific conclusions, but would not surprise me at all.

Edited 17 March 2020 by Dahnsouff

[Guest Markyblue]

44 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

The people just REEEEEEEEing at "tHe GoVeRnMeNt" are grating on me already. Firstly, ANY government no matter what the party allegiance would just be following the advice of the top scientists, that's pretty fvcking obvious. Secondly, you know the same people will be the first to be moaning when there's a lockdown, a full travel ban and the purchase of good is limited. 

Spot on, time for unity and bollocks to politics...we are all humans.

[Innovindil]

46 minutes ago, bmt said:

Shame they won't share the vaccine really

Wouldn't expect that to be set in stone. At a minimum, these tests will hopefully help prove if it is at least viable. 

[BeardyFox]

We've just heard from our wedding venue that they no longer feel comfortable to go ahead with the wedding next friday. I know there are hugely more important global issues, its just guttting to get this close and not be able to get it done but the safety and health especially of our older guests is something we cant risk. Been a tough and emotional 24hrs.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

9 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

What if our top scientists are wrong. Every other government, who are also advised by scientists, appears to be battening down the hatches. And if lockdown is inevitable, all we've done is bought ourselves a couple of weeks and increased the amount of people with it who'll now be dying at home.

I don't know. But what if the European Scientists are wrong? I'm not one to be saying we'll be OK becasue we're British and we'll fall back on our "blitz spirit" and all that bollocks (usually peddelled by people born after the war ended), but there's no precedent for what's going on. There's no proven right or wrong way to deal with this. 

[foxile5]

5 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

What if our top scientists are wrong. Every other government, who are also advised by scientists, appears to be battening down the hatches. And if lockdown is inevitable, all we've done is bought ourselves a couple of weeks and increased the amount of people with it who'll now be dying at home.

Not to mention that the WHO and other, independent Epidemiologists are being highly critical of it.

 

Let's face it 'top scientists' is an empty a term as you'll get coming from Boris Johnson; he's untrustworthy and, by extension, those who agree with him ought to be viewed under a lens of mistrust. 

 

I'm aware that these posts seem like point-scoring, and posters have called me out as such, but this isn't based on any political leanings. This is based on watching the man, a habitual liar, womaniser, abuser, racist, and charlatan, ascend to Premiership through chicanery and misinformation. 

 

With him, as with David Cameron, I'm at the point of being unable to regard a single word that comes out of his mouth as anything other than self-serving nonesense. His anti-Euro sentiments, and wish to be considered as being correct and better than the EU, are driving this resistence to shut down. 

[bmt]

2 minutes ago, BeardyFox said:

We've just heard from our wedding venue that they no longer feel comfortable to go ahead with the wedding next friday. I know there are hugely more important global issues, its just guttting to get this close and not be able to get it done but the safety and health especially of our older guests is something we cant risk. Been a tough and emotional 24hrs.

It's the right decision but sorry, that must be tough to take.

[Stevosevic]

How long do we realistically expect these travel bans to go on for?

 

There's no cure any time soon and the world economy will literally collapse if travel is banned for a long period of time. Plus the social issues of it separating families etc....

[Lionator]

3 minutes ago, Stevosevic said:

How long do we realistically expect these travel bans to go on for?

 

There's no cure any time soon and the world economy will literally collapse if travel is banned for a long period of time. Plus the social issues of it separating families etc....

Depends if European countries wake up and realise that the WHO, Chinese and Korean approach is correct. 

 

In 2-3 months time while we're still on lockdown, the far east will be thriving again.

[Kopfkino]

There's lot of hopeful news on the science front. 

 

The study that suggests 86% of cases in Wuhan went undetected. That's corroborated with the director of a virology lab in Italy that sampled regularly tested people in Vo in Italy and found that 75% of positive tests had no symptoms. Test test test. 

 

The study that suggests Rhesus monkeys built immunity. More needed here obviously but there's also stuff that suggests SARS immunity lasts 18-24 months and MERS up to 6 years. 

 

Lots of chat about (hydroxy)chloroquine maybe being quite effective and hopefully won't be long before we get results of RCTs. Treatment options will change the dynamics obviously. 

 

 

And hopefully today the government moves to be insurer of last resort to prop up the economy

Edited 17 March 2020 by Kopfkino

[nnfox]

4 minutes ago, Stevosevic said:

How long do we realistically expect these travel bans to go on for?

 

There's no cure any time soon and the world economy will literally collapse if travel is banned for a long period of time. Plus the social issues of it separating families etc....

I think the reality is that they will stay in place for as long as it takes.  Which could be a long, long time.

[bmt]

2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

The study that suggests 86% of cases in Wuhan went undetected. That's corroborated with the director of a virology lab in Italy that sampled regularly tested people in Vo in Italy and found that 90% of positive tests had no symptoms. Test test test. 

 

This part is great news, hopefully death rate much lower than expected then. Suggests that if we strongly improve our testing capacity to be able to test everyone some sensible quarantined measures could be relaxed relatively quickly when the initial outbreak is under control.

[nnfox]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Depends if European countries wake up and realise that the WHO, Chinese and Korean approach is correct. 

 

In 2-3 months time while we're still on lockdown, the far east will be thriving again.

1. We don't know for sure that the Chinese/Korean way is correct.  We are a very short way through this.  Calling any approach "correct" right now is premature at best 

 

2. The WHO have the easiest job in coming up with a list of recommendations, but it is individual governments that have to implement their unworkable wishlist.

 

3. The Far East won't be thriving again in 2-3 months. 

[Manini]

9 hours ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

You’re in a difficult position. Without seeing the contract, I would expect terms within that allow the builder to delay or even terminate in case of events outside of their control. 
 

I’ve spent most of today (right until about half hour ago!) advising some clients on this current predicament and to be honest, like most other lawyers, I have no ****ing clue how it will go. One client I spoke to today, I was advising them just ten days ago on a potential multi million pound takeover. Today, our conversation centred around how to keep their staffed paid!! 
 

Anyway, back to your situation. The contract will have three things in it that you need clarified by your solicitor. 1. The force majeur clause. 2. The funder step in clause. 3. The determination and remedies clause. From the above three options, ask your solicitor what the “trigger” aspect is of all three. So, taking clause 1, it’s a real buzz word clause at the moment but these clauses are very heavily negotiated. Ask, does it include notifiable diseases (which if it does, it will work in the builders favour). Once you understand clearly from your solicitor what is contained in these clauses, you’ll better understand what to do - feel free to DM me if you want more explanation.

 

Conveyancing contracts are pretty straightforward. They exchange and there is (or should be) a set completion date. If that completion date is missed, the non-defaulting party serves a “notice to complete”. That notice lasts 10 working days, if completion cannot occur due to the defaulting party - you can terminate and the 10% deposit is owed back to you.  The only concern is, if the builder goes through insolvency, the contract still triggers termination (or should do, again, ask your solicitor) but it then becomes a chase to get your 10% before it goes into the blackhole. To safeguard this, ask your solicitor to change the deposit terms from being held as “stakeholder” to being held as “agent” by your solicitor ask her to argue that due to the uncertain landscape, my client feels necessary precautions need to be put in place to protect their position. By switching the deposit to “agent” status it means your solicitor keeps hold of the deposit on behalf of the seller in case of default (notice to complete, as above) - where they can immediately return it back to you. 
 

Another option, which may be difficult is to ask to include a long stop date for when the build should start - if this date is missed, you can terminate on written notice. The 
 

Like I said, it’s not an easy position to be in but a bit of smart work around the contract, you’ll protect yourself.

Very good of you to type that out to help me mate thank you. I’ve had a chat with my solicitor this morning, we discussed some of the points you made above and we’ve worked out some amendments which have put my mind at ease slightly - she’s going to discuss with the developers solicitors today and update me as we go. Not completely out of the woods yet but it at least buys us some time to weight up all the possible eventualities. 
 

Testing times but I really appreciate you taking the time to offer me some advice Micky! 

[BeardyFox]

15 minutes ago, bmt said:

It's the right decision but sorry, that must be tough to take.

Yeah it's been tough. I think we both knew deep down since the announcements yesterday. We'll have our day at some point 👍