Corona Virus

[Lionator]

17 minutes ago, brucey said:

Did some digging, the original source is from a mailing list for critical care doctors.

https://www.twitter.com/critconcepts/status/1235632042802589698

But yes it’s difficult for lay people to separate misinformation from the truth.

I’ve spent far too many hours reading about the outbreak every day since early Jan. It’s exhausting trying to keep up.

I’ve been doing an awful lot of reading too and it’s not doing me any good at all. There’s some really dark places on the web, mainly reddit, where people (general public, not scientists) have rather bleak outlooks on this. I really need to withdraw and relax. 

[Guest]

This isn’t growing at the rate I expected. Good news.

Hopeful it will fizzle out by early Summer. 
We’ve got a much better handle on it than a lot of countries simply because of the hindsight of the plight of the earlier sufferers.

[Lionator]

7 minutes ago, shanetko said:

This isn’t growing at the rate I expected. Good news.

Hopeful it will fizzle out by early Summer. 
We’ve got a much better handle on it than a lot of countries simply because of the hindsight of the plight of the earlier sufferers.

We complain about our country but having a universal healthcare system, and organisations such as PHE who are given responsibility to lead the response to this put us at a great advantage. You only have to look at the States and the Trump/CDC debacle to see how we’re ahead of the game. Expect ourselves, France and Germany to deal with this fairly well (not saying there won’t be major disruption and lots of deaths). 

[Guest MattP]

19 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

So few people have it though. 

 

Maybe younger people are more able to focus in on the realism in numbers and zone out of the media's nonsense? Just a thought.

In terms of the early stages of a pandemic, a pretty large number of people have it and Italy and Iran are already showing what can happen if you don't take control extremely quickly.

 

I'm firmly with the people who think the media are downplaying this rather than the other way around, many doctors are briefing that they have no idea how quick this could spread, how long it will last and what the effect of a huge number needing intensive care could be. Some think we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths by the summer.

 

I have no idea at this point in time how anyone could be so blaise because of numbers.

[yorkie1999]

19 minutes ago, MattP said:

In terms of the early stages of a pandemic, a pretty large number of people have it and Italy and Iran are already showing what can happen if you don't take control extremely quickly.

 

I'm firmly with the people who think the media are downplaying this rather than the other way around, many doctors are briefing that they have no idea how quick this could spread, how long it will last and what the effect of a huge number needing intensive care could be. Some think we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths by the summer.

 

I have no idea at this point in time how anyone could be so blaise because of numbers.

There won’t be any panic until people like you and I know someone who contracts the virus.

[leicsmac]

 

Oh dear.

[Guest MattP]

ST confirming government thinks death toll in Britain will be about 100,000.

 

 

[Guest Kopfkino]

38 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I’ve been doing an awful lot of reading too and it’s not doing me any good at all. There’s some really dark places on the web, mainly reddit, where people (general public, not scientists) have rather bleak outlooks on this. I really need to withdraw and relax. 

Why, when you have a wealth of information from useful sources so easily available at your fingertips, would you read reddit? I mean at least with Twitter you can choose to pay attention only to people that you can verify their background but reddit? Save yourself. 

 

I do enjoy checking the WHO research database everyday, try to read at least all the abstracts and then go from there. Obviously have limits to my understanding with no medical background but I just love information overloads. 

 

Also, one positive has come out of it for me. As someone that has major bouts of health anxiety, that I'm calm about this is making me feel better about myself. From having a GP ring we up everyday to check I'm alright to not being particularly fussed by this atm is great progress. 

 

 

 

 

[MPH]

37 minutes ago, Lionator said:

We complain about our country but having a universal healthcare system, and organisations such as PHE who are given responsibility to lead the response to this put us at a great advantage. You only have to look at the States and the Trump/CDC debacle to see how we’re ahead of the game. Expect ourselves, France and Germany to deal with this fairly well (not saying there won’t be major disruption and lots of deaths). 

 

 

im actually concerned that the next couple of weeks could see an explosion of cases in England, mainly because of how small everything is and close together. let’s hope not!

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Tbh, what's devastating is living in a council estate with no hope of ever travelling beyond Skeggy and not being able to afford to stockpile for a few weeks as you've got a zero hours contract and you've been told to self-isolate for two weeks.

If you work in tourism in Italy it's been devastating, people's livelihoods have been almost destroyed. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

If you work in tourism in Italy it's devastating, people's livelihoods are being destroyed. 

It's pretty much the same elsewhere too - I'm really not sure about the state the business I work for will be in when work starts again next week.

[MPH]

8 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 

im actually concerned that the next couple of weeks could see an explosion of cases in England, mainly because of how small everything is and close together. let’s hope not!

 

 

Just to explain this comment, i live in North Carolina. England is smaller than North Carolina yet there’s approximately 10 million people in North Carolina and about 52 million people in England.

 

theres about 320m in the United states but there’s at least 25 states that are bigger than North Carolina

[Heathrow fox]

42 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

There won’t be any panic until people like you and I know someone who contracts the virus.

Then again it might calm people when we know friends and associates who get it and recover perfectly well.

[brucey]

New hot spots soon to emerge...

[Nod.E]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

In terms of the early stages of a pandemic, a pretty large number of people have it and Italy and Iran are already showing what can happen if you don't take control extremely quickly.

 

I'm firmly with the people who think the media are downplaying this rather than the other way around, many doctors are briefing that they have no idea how quick this could spread, how long it will last and what the effect of a huge number needing intensive care could be. Some think we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths by the summer.

 

I have no idea at this point in time how anyone could be so blaise because of numbers.

145 people have died in Italy. Out of over 60 million.

 

I'm sorry but I just think some people have a better grasp of numbers than others.

 

Don't let the media panic you.

[simFox]

20 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

145 people have died in Italy. Out of over 60 million.

 

I'm sorry but I just think some people have a better grasp of numbers than others.

 

Don't let the media panic you.

That's irrelevant compared to the overcrowded hospitals and the fact new critical patients can't get a bed. Don't just look at the headline numbers.

 

When their hands are full keeping 80yo's who are on their last legs alive without success, but having to turn away critical 35yo with a family, tough decisions will need to be made.

 

But it's ok, don't let it worry you.

[simFox]

1 hour ago, Lionator said:

We complain about our country but having a universal healthcare system, and organisations such as PHE who are given responsibility to lead the response to this put us at a great advantage. You only have to look at the States and the Trump/CDC debacle to see how we’re ahead of the game. Expect ourselves, France and Germany to deal with this fairly well (not saying there won’t be major disruption and lots of deaths). 

Our numbers look fairly low, but it's the number of community transmissions you need to look at. They've only just appeared, so expect them to grow. Once they get going then you'll realise how good of a handle we'll have on this.

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, MattP said:

ST confirming government thinks death toll in Britain will be about 100,000.

 

 

This makes sense from the figures that the Chief Medical Officer for England Chris Whitty gave during his briefing to Jeremy Hunt. I was very impressed by him and minded to believe what he said. He seemed to expect about 20% infection rate in the UK, and a mortality rate of up to 1%, so ~100k sounds about right.

 

He said the 1% mortality rate was likely an upper limit and was the result of expert analysis of available data, taking account of likely under reporting of the infection rate due to relatively mild symptoms. I’m more inclined to believe him than some of the more simplistic calculations done by any of us lay types.

 

 

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, Nod.E said:

145 people have died in Italy. Out of over 60 million.

 

I'm sorry but I just think some people have a better grasp of numbers than others.

 

Don't let the media panic you.

I think you need to read up on how the exponential function works.

 

Edit: Excellent presentation here.

 

 

[Guest Cujek]

22 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Wtf. Anyone else expecting the doctor leading the efforts on finding a vaccine to actually be in a lab instead of prancing around on TV? 

 

Get back to work dickhead. 

You are right, most of these people are just paid stooges wheeled around to perpetuate fear and ignorance. 

[VLC86]

6 hours ago, MattP said:

ST confirming government thinks death toll in Britain will be about 100,000.

 

 

I’ve got a friend whose Mrs works for the NHS, apparently they are predicting 400k.

[MC Prussian]

8 hours ago, MattP said:

In terms of the early stages of a pandemic, a pretty large number of people have it and Italy and Iran are already showing what can happen if you don't take control extremely quickly.

 

I'm firmly with the people who think the media are downplaying this rather than the other way around, many doctors are briefing that they have no idea how quick this could spread, how long it will last and what the effect of a huge number needing intensive care could be. Some think we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths by the summer.

 

I have no idea at this point in time how anyone could be so blaise because of numbers.

I think when you look at it in absolute numbers alone, then I suppose 100'000 deaths sound... for the lack of a better word, impressive, threatening.

 

At the same time, we forget about the historical context and putting things into a relative perspective.

 

The Spanish Flu infected more than 25% of the then-population and cost the lives of 3 million people or 3 percent of the population back in the days. And that's only an estimation, the real number could be even higher. That was in a time when we had 1.8 billion people living on this planet. We're approaching 8 billion now.

 

Recently, we had the 2015 heat wave that also killed thousands of people worldwide, the majority of those among the elderly also.

 

It may sound a bit cynical to downplay 100'000 deaths, but it is nothing in comparison to previous viruses that swept the globe at a time when we had a much smaller global population.

 

Personally, I think the media have little to no clue, as they are no medial experts. And I suppose even these experts are struggling to fully comprehend the scale of this outbreak.

Again, we should neither ignore the threat, nor fall for hysteria.

[Finnegan]

Every cvnt out there panic hoarding toilet paper and emptying the shelves, I hope you actually get coronavirus so your efforts aren't for nothing. 

 

Twats. 

[Nod.E]

6 hours ago, simFox said:

That's irrelevant compared to the overcrowded hospitals and the fact new critical patients can't get a bed. Don't just look at the headline numbers.

 

When their hands are full keeping 80yo's who are on their last legs alive without success, but having to turn away critical 35yo with a family, tough decisions will need to be made.

 

But it's ok, don't let it worry you.

Obviously tough decisions will need to be made. I'm not saying this is an ideal situation, rather that the media panic is disproportionate to the severity of the situation.

 

Even if the worst case scenario happens and 100,000 die in the UK, that's still only 0.15% of the population. It's still 60,000 deaths less than cancer causes every year.

 

It's newsworthy, but it isn't day after day, headline grabbing, fearmonger worthy.

 

If you weren't worried about dying from cancer last month, then you shouldn't be worried about Corona virus killing you now.

[hejammy]

48 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

I think when you look at it in absolute numbers alone, then I suppose 100'000 deaths sound... for the lack of a better word, impressive, threatening.

 

At the same time, we forget about the historical context and putting things into a relative perspective.

 

The Spanish Flu infected more than 25% of the then-population and cost the lives of 3 million people or 3 percent of the population back in the days. And that's only an estimation, the real number could be even higher. That was in a time when we had 1.8 billion people living on this planet. We're approaching 8 billion now.

 

Recently, we had the 2015 heat wave that also killed thousands of people worldwide, the majority of those among the elderly also.

 

It may sound a bit cynical to downplay 100'000 deaths, but it is nothing in comparison to previous viruses that swept the globe at a time when we had a much smaller global population.

 

Personally, I think the media have little to no clue, as they are no medial experts. And I suppose even these experts are struggling to fully comprehend the scale of this outbreak.

Again, we should neither ignore the threat, nor fall for hysteria.

The problem is that the current death rate is 3%, so if everyone caught it in the UK, around 60m people then at 3% that's around 1.9m people. Obviously this would be assuming a lot of things so if it was 100,000 in the end then yes it "wouldn't seem so bad" unless ofcourse you know personally any of the 100,000. Either way it's no reason to panic but there is a reason to be cautious, especially if you fit the criteria for being at risk if you catch it.