Corona Virus

[Parafox]

On 07/03/2020 at 19:03, Manwell Pablo said:

To an extent but you are comparing a full years worth of data against a few weeks, and you are also comparing  a disease that is pretty much unregulated to one that has attempted to be contained. 
 

I agree it’s not the apocalypse but we all need to be mindful.

 

Yes we do. And I totally agree. I wasn't suggesting we should be complacent but the way the press have been reporting this in a sensationalist manner is frustrating. People will get infected, most won't and if they do it will be relatively mild. The press reporting is sensationalist with a bit of common sense advice, for balance. A decent percentage of those that watch/read the news will over-react, hence the panic buying and supermarkets restricting the purchase of some products. The press coverage so often causes the public to fear the worst when, in fact, they should be advising the reality and common sense above driving panic and fear. There's a great post on FB from a virologist doctor, look for Abdu Sharkawy.

By the way, the high death rate in Italy is almost entirely those over 75 with underlying conditions making them vulnerable. Italy also has the oldest population, in terms of age, in Europe.

When SARS was the big thing, many people died worldwide but relatively few in the UK/Europe. Covid-19 will inevitably result in more deaths in the UK but realistically, most of us are at low risk.

Now wash your hands. 

[martyn]

The figures from Italy show 60+% of positive cases are hospitalised. 

 

Either the true number of cases is vastly underreported, or the disease is far far more serious. 

 

Id guess, and hope for the former as the much lesser of 2 evils.

[BlueSi13]

166 dead in 24 hours in Italy bringing the death rate there to 5%.

 

Either the Italians have got something horrifically wrong or this is far more dangerous than we collectively assumed.  The fact this can happen in one of the worlds richest countries is a cause of deep deep concern.  It would also suggest the Chinese and Iranians have hugely downplayed their own mortality rates.

 

If the Chief Medical Officer and the Government are keen to stay ahead of this I think it's a fair bet we'll start seeing major changes this week.

[Parafox]

1 minute ago, martyn said:

The figures from Italy show 60+% of positive cases are hospitalised. 

 

Either the true number of cases is vastly underreported, or the disease is far far more serious. 

 

Id guess, and hope for the former as the much lesser of 2 evils.

That's Italy alone. If you look into it, the Italian population has the oldest average age in Europe and they have the most vulnerable elderly population as regards underlying conditions such as COPD and other smoking related illnesses, making that cohort present with a high percentage of hospitalisations

[Kopfkino]

9 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

166 dead in 24 hours in Italy bringing the death rate there to 5%.

 

Either the Italians have got something horrifically wrong or this is far more dangerous than we collectively assumed.  The fact this can happen in one of the worlds richest countries is a cause of deep deep concern.  It would also suggest the Chinese and Iranians have hugely downplayed their own mortality rates.

 

If the Chief Medical Officer and the Government are keen to stay ahead of this I think it's a fair bet we'll start seeing major changes this week.

Or Northern Italy has quite a substantial elderly unhealthy population who we already know from Chinese data are far more susceptible, only 2 of their recent deaths are under 60. 

 

South Korea has done the most testing, 3x as much as anyone else as a proportion of population and have a death rate comfortably below 1. Suggests there a heap of cases that go unnoticed bringing the actual mortality rate but that seems to be largely ignored in favour of any take that can make it look worse than it is. 

Edited 8 March 2020 by Kopfkino

[brucey]

6 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

166 dead in 24 hours in Italy bringing the death rate there to 5%.

 

Either the Italians have got something horrifically wrong or this is far more dangerous than we collectively assumed.  The fact this can happen in one of the worlds richest countries is a cause of deep deep concern.  It would also suggest the Chinese and Iranians have hugely downplayed their own mortality rates.

 

If the Chief Medical Officer and the Government are keen to stay ahead of this I think it's a fair bet we'll start seeing major changes this week.

The 5% in Italy is partly due to significant underreporting of untested mild cases, and partly due to the over-saturation of healthcare resources.

 

Death rate in Wuhan was similar at around 5% as opposed to 0.7% elsewhere in China, for similar reasons.

[Barrowblue]

Ok. My two pence on this. 

I'm in no camp with regards to over reaction or under reaction. 

 

The numbers game is giving me a headache with trying to get some perspective, 

133 dying in a day really does sound bad, however 1400 people die in the UK every day for whatever reason. Mostly age related. 

 

500,000+ deaths per year. That's inc accidents, cancer, heart, old age etc. 

 

So Italy ( if it were us )  of a similar population to us has a 10%increase death rate on this day.  

 

This as a current standing does not make me worried. 

[Manwell Pablo]

4 minutes ago, Parafox said:

That's Italy alone. If you look into it, the Italian population has the oldest average age in Europe and they have the most vulnerable elderly population as regards underlying conditions such as COPD and other smoking related illnesses, making that cohort present with a high percentage of hospitalisations

It’s a minimal statistic, they’ve got an average age about five years older than ours.

 

You can cut that 166 in half if you want, that’s still 30,000 deaths in a year, I’m not particularly bothered if it’s vulnerable groups  at the highest risk either, which I’m well aware of anyway, I know plenty of people who would be at risk. Plus it’s it’s potential to cause a lock down most period are worrying about the most not death.

 

This isn’t SARS and this isn’t flu, this will 100% be the most disruptive outbreak in many decades, the wash your hands and listen to borris attitude is nearly as annoying as the lets empty Tesco just in case attitude

[SheppyFox]

Interesting how the vast majority of recovering cases aren’t really being mentioned much🤔

[StanSP]

3 minutes ago, SheppyFox said:

Interesting how the vast majority of recovering cases aren’t really being mentioned much🤔

That doesn't scare people or sensational enough for news broadcasters/platforms to report on.

[Manwell Pablo]

3 minutes ago, StanSP said:

That doesn't scare people or sensational enough for news broadcasters/platforms to report on.

There’s a lot more too this than simply dying yourself. 

 

The majority of us on here will be young and healthy enough to get away with mild symptoms, that’s not really the point. The impact on the vulnerable age group though, who some people seem to be talking about like they don’t even matter, and the social and economic impact, could be quite severe and disruptive.

 

 

[promised land]

2 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

I have more fear of the mass hysteria and panic caused by people than I do this virus. 

 

Speaking of panic, yesterday I thought I'll get some cash just in case but there was none in the 3 or 4 machines I tried in town so I popped into one of the banks just before 5pm.

 

There was a bit of a queue and I was just about to get my cash card out when I noticed two guys behind me in surgical masks. They were both sweating and shaking, so people started to panic a bit.

 

When one of the guys shouted that it was a robbery everyone calmed down immediately and passed them their wallets. Be on your guard and stay safe.

[Livid]

Let’s just say certain countries tend to be economical with the truth when they are faced with situations like this, the official Soviet death toll at Chernobyl was 31.

 

Who knows what the real figures are? Pretty sure they won’t be carrying out an autopsy on all deaths and will only be counting those  pre diagnosed. 

[Jon the Hat]

So we are now basically where Italy was two weeks ago..  Lets hope in two weeks we aren't where they are now.

[VLC86]

4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

So we are now basically where Italy was two weeks ago..  Lets hope in two weeks we aren't where they are now.

In Italy?

[Desabafar]

54 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

166 dead in 24 hours in Italy bringing the death rate there to 5%.

 

Either the Italians have got something horrifically wrong or this is far more dangerous than we collectively assumed.  The fact this can happen in one of the worlds richest countries is a cause of deep deep concern.  It would also suggest the Chinese and Iranians have hugely downplayed their own mortality rates.

 

If the Chief Medical Officer and the Government are keen to stay ahead of this I think it's a fair bet we'll start seeing major changes this week.

It might mean that Italy has lots more cases than they confirm. I read a data scientist and epidemiologist say that if the deaths looks high its more likely because of undetected cases rather than cos its more dangerous

[Vlad the Fox]

2 hours ago, Izzy said:

Simple test

 

 

That’s great, but I’m not feeling too clever using old  shopping receipts and the wife's socks to wipe my arse. 

[String fellow]

The point about Italy's generally older population being a factor in their big rise in deaths today is interesting, but Iran also had a record rise in deaths today. That country has a relatively young population, in general. As someone once said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics!  

[Lionator]

6 minutes ago, String fellow said:

The point about Italy's generally older population being a factor in their big rise in deaths today is interesting, but Iran also had a record rise in deaths today. That country has a relatively young population, in general. As someone once said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics!  

It's most likely due to a lack of testing. The countries which are doing the most testing so far have much lower mortality rates(South Korea (0.7%) & Germany (0 deaths)). If you're missing the mild cases then your mortality rate is going to look much worse than the reality. This is absolutely rampant in Italy and must have been around for 4-6 weeks at least.

[Matt_Lcfc]

I wonder how many cases there has to be until we all self-isolate?

[twoleftfeet]

What is evident is the numbers can ramp up quickly we are not going to know the true death rate for some time it seams strange the death rate on board the Diamond Princess is still lower than that suggested by the figures world wide with upto a third of those infected already deemed as recovered. So death rate on board of those who have tested positive is about 1% but with 32 still listed as critical that figure could be 6% of total cases quite easily Worldometer's figures suggest 6% of all outcomes either recovered or death to de at roughly 6%.

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, Manwell Pablo said:

There’s a lot more too this than simply dying yourself. 

 

The majority of us on here will be young and healthy enough to get away with mild symptoms, that’s not really the point. The impact on the vulnerable age group though, who some people seem to be talking about like they don’t even matter, and the social and economic impact, could be quite severe and disruptive.

 

 

Erm, okay? I don't disagree with any of that. And I'm not sure what that has to do with what I was responding to @SheppyFox about, unless I'm missing something obvious? Apologies if so.

[VLC86]

Just seen this posted on Twitter, a Dr’s account of what’s going on in Bergamo.

 

 

[SheppyFox]

18 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Erm, okay? I don't disagree with any of that. And I'm not sure what that has to do with what I was responding to @SheppyFox about, unless I'm missing something obvious? Apologies if so.

Pablo is the one buying up all the supplies in Morrison’s. He’s in his garden as we speak digging a survival bunker.

[StanSP]

3 minutes ago, SheppyFox said:

Pablo is the one buying up all the supplies in Morrison’s. He’s in his garden as we speak digging a survival bunker.

For himself or anyone vulnerable ?