Coronavirus Thread

[dsr-burnley]

Which was the bigger spreader - schools or universities?

[Scotch]

As expected, Nicola Spurgeon has been far more conservative (no pun intended) with her roadmap out of lockdown than Bojo was yesterday. 

[foxile5]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

They will.

 

However, this time we've got 15m people vaccinated and with immunity, as well as people with natural immunity due to having caught the virus previously, so hopefully it'll combat it enough so it's not an issue.

 

This week has been slow on the vaccine front (both me updating the thread and supplies to the centres), but from next week it's going to ramp up apparently, we should be looking at 400k+ everyday again, probably more.

The natural immunity isn't necessarily a thing. A person I work with is currently hospitalised with their second confirmed bout. 

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, filbertway said:

More contact should mean more infections. I guess the interest will be in what it does to the infection levels over the next few weeks after opening. It'll be a good way to test how the vaccines are working in containing transmission.

I wonder if they are content for the virus to be spreading around on the basis that the vulnerable and over 60’s will have been vaccinated and therefore far less likely to be hospitalised.  I could be wrong but is the virus more likely to mutate if it’s not spreading easily ??? I always thought that the virus just wants to spread as much as it can and when it becomes suppressed it mutates to try and spread again ??

 

It could be argued that trying to remove the virus as much as possible at this stage could lead to a mutation that the current vaccines may not deal so well with at a time when we are still indoors 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

The natural immunity isn't necessarily a thing. A person I work with is currently hospitalised with their second confirmed bout. 

How long ago was their first infection ?  

[filbertway]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I wonder if they are content for the virus to be spreading around on the basis that the vulnerable and over 60’s will have been vaccinated and therefore far less likely to be hospitalised.  I could be wrong but is the virus more likely to mutate if it’s not spreading easily ??? I always thought that the virus just wants to spread as much as it can and when it becomes suppressed it mutates to try and spread again ??

 

It could be argued that trying to remove the virus as much as possible at this stage could lead to a mutation that the current vaccines may not deal so well with at a time when we are still indoors 

Mutations happen by accident, so the more times it replicates the more chance there is of a mutation. If one mutation happens to be more transmissable then that mutation may be able to survive and replicate more and more.

 

The virus doesn't check the government update at 4pm and decide it needs to mutate in a certain way in an effort to survive . It has no willingness to adapt to survive, the mutations are purely by chance and the strongest ones thrive and the weaker ones will die out. If there's more in circulation then the chances of mutations increase.

 

I've said this and I'm so sure of myself that I'm starting to doubt myself

 

 

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

Dilemma.

 

Looking outside the window of my flat, and there is a takeaway coffee/snack business facilitating a congregation of about 12-15 people from about 5-6 households. Although yes they are outside, we are in lockdown and there is no masks or social distancing,  it looks like they are actually sharing platters of food, having a great old time, they have been there for over an hour and a half. I hate the thought of grassing but equally I am unable trade myself and when I was, I took every covid precaution and acted within the guidelines. It seems incredibly unfair and this business owner is not even being subtle about it lol, she's walking round offering samples to everyone with no hint of caution.

 

Report the incident?

[Christoph]

3 minutes ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

Dilemma.

 

Looking outside the window of my flat, and there is a takeaway coffee/snack business facilitating a congregation of about 12-15 people from about 5-6 households. Although yes they are outside, we are in lockdown and there is no masks or social distancing,  it looks like they are actually sharing platters of food, having a great old time, they have been there for over an hour and a half. I hate the thought of grassing but equally I am unable trade myself and when I was, I took every covid precaution and acted within the guidelines. It seems incredibly unfair and this business owner is not even being subtle about it lol, she's walking round offering samples to everyone with no hint of caution.

 

Report the incident?

 

Yes report them to Mrs Finster   

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

9 minutes ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

Dilemma.

 

Looking outside the window of my flat, and there is a takeaway coffee/snack business facilitating a congregation of about 12-15 people from about 5-6 households. Although yes they are outside, we are in lockdown and there is no masks or social distancing,  it looks like they are actually sharing platters of food, having a great old time, they have been there for over an hour and a half. I hate the thought of grassing but equally I am unable trade myself and when I was, I took every covid precaution and acted within the guidelines. It seems incredibly unfair and this business owner is not even being subtle about it lol, she's walking round offering samples to everyone with no hint of caution.

 

Report the incident?

No, keep your nose out and do something more productive with your time. 

 

*in the nicest possible way*

 

 

 

All the best Scotland...

[FoxesDeb]

 

No idea how reliable this is, but it's doing the rounds on social media over here. Presumably the figure for the UK will shoot up quickly and overtake the others though, as they have vaccinated so many people with the first dose already? 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

17 hours ago, Corky said:

We're having another lockdown at some point, probably next autumn.

No chance. 

[String fellow]

Dunno about anyone else, but I'll miss having the perfect excuse not to see my rellies post-lockdown!

[Stivo]

2 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Which was the bigger spreader - schools or universities?

In the autumn definitely universities, you could track high COVID rates to university towns eg Exeter.
 

But I have seen it suggested that the fast spreading Kent variant is more easily passed between children - how accurate that is I obviously don’t know.  Peak cases in London was 1st jan and Leicester the week later, which kind of fits with the theory that school end of term before Christmas could have been significant.

 

I just think a two week delay for secondaries would have been prudent.  Post Easter all the priority groups will be vaccinated so the risks diminish.

 

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

[Nalis]

13 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

No idea how reliable this is, but it's doing the rounds on social media over here. Presumably the figure for the UK will shoot up quickly and overtake the others though, as they have vaccinated so many people with the first dose already? 

It probably is accurate but bloody hell is it misleading and missing the point of the UK strategy.

 

Graph is completely irrelevant as a result.

[Dunge]

13 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

No idea how reliable this is, but it's doing the rounds on social media over here. Presumably the figure for the UK will shoot up quickly and overtake the others though, as they have vaccinated so many people with the first dose already? 

I have no reason to disbelieve this graph.

 

But, as is always the case, data is just numbers. Meaning and interpretation is up to us. What sort of message is going around with this graph? Because I can see how it could be used to make either one interesting point regarding differences in rollout or another that would be completely inaccurate.

[Dunge]

In fact, the most interesting thing to me about the graph is Italy: Have they changed tactics or has supply dropped?

[kingfox]

4 hours ago, StriderHiryu said:

 

^ A more understandable version of the road to recovery roadmap. 

Step one A and Step one B will please the Chav population.

[bovril]

9 minutes ago, Nalis said:

It probably is accurate but bloody hell is it misleading and missing the point of the UK strategy.

 

Graph is completely irrelevant as a result.

It's not irrelevant. You're right that it misses the point of the UK strategy but then you could argue that with our crowing we've missed the point of the EU strategy.

 

I think we've made the right choice at the moment, data certainly suggests so. But I'd prefer it if we leave the celebrations until we're out of this shit totally. 

[dsr-burnley]

17 minutes ago, Stivo said:

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

You can guarantee that we will see either an exponential rise or an exponential fall, because all exponential means is that one figure is based on factors applied to a previous figure in the series.  (I am thinking of launching a campaign to persuade journalists that "exponential" is not a synonym for "fast.)

[Corky]

37 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

No chance. 

I really hope I'm wrong, by the way. I don't want any more of this.

 

My comment was based on SAGE sending out dire messages.

[bovril]

9 minutes ago, Dunge said:

In fact, the most interesting thing to me about the graph is Italy: Have they changed tactics or has supply dropped?

Italy have decided to follow the UK's lead with the delayed dose strategy. 

Edited 23 February 2021 by bovril

[Nalis]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

It's not irrelevant. You're right that it misses the point of the UK strategy but then you could argue that with our crowing we've missed the point of the EU strategy.

 

I think we've made the right choice at the moment, data certainly suggests so. But I'd prefer it if we leave the celebrations until we're out of this shit totally. 

I'm not making this an 'us vs them' as its better if all national strategies eventually work (FWIW I'm a remainer so I dont have a hidden agenda against the EU if thats what you're getting at - apologies if it isnt),  just that its misleading.

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (54.1%) EDITED: Previously said 51.1%.

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

Edited 23 February 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[bovril]

Just now, Nalis said:

I'm not making this an 'us vs them' as its better if all national strategies eventually work (FWIW I'm a remainer so I dont have a hidden agenda against the EU if thats what you're getting at - apologies if it isnt),  just that its misleading.

It's not but I understand the paranoia as everything is seen through the Brexit lens atm 

 

It's not really misleading though, it clearly shows that we have far fewer people "fully vaccinated" than others. But you're right that it misses the point. Time will tell.

Edited 23 February 2021 by bovril

[dsr-burnley]

Be glad that Leicester isn't in Scotland.  Sturgeon is going to reintroduce variable tiers at the end of April.

 

She also sets out a "roadmap" that goes as far as 26th April + 3 weeks and doesn't mention holidays.  Whether she proposes to ban Scots from going on holiday at all, or simply wishes to ensure that they all go to England, I don't know.

 

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/live-first-ministers-plan-easing-23548525

Edited 23 February 2021 by dsr-burnley