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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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Was there anything in the announcement regarding shielding?  Because there's a couple of million people in England who have been advised to shield up to now and opening up doesn't benefit them unless the shielding advice is similarly relaxed.

 

I had an email from Hancock after I'd had the vaccine advising me to continue to shield and only leave the house for exercise.  I didn't hear anything in the parts of the announcement repeated on the news to indicate that the shielding had been considered.

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9 minutes ago, Crinklyfox said:

Was there anything in the announcement regarding shielding?  Because there's a couple of million people in England who have been advised to shield up to now and opening up doesn't benefit them unless the shielding advice is similarly relaxed.

 

I had an email from Hancock after I'd had the vaccine advising me to continue to shield and only leave the house for exercise.  I didn't hear anything in the parts of the announcement repeated on the news to indicate that the shielding had been considered.

Wouldn’t you be best to consult with your doctor?

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8 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I think perhaps you haven't looked at the date on that report.  Suffice to say that a consensus from just over a year ago is not a useful guide to what happens to coronavirus in summer.

Arghh it’s the wrong link!!!:blush:
 

 I read the correct one but then got the year wrong and linked the wrong one .  
the one of interest is this.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf

 

 

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34 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Wouldn’t you be best to consult with your doctor?

I last spoke to my (specialist) doctor rather than my GP a week ago.  He wants me to shield.  I was interested to learn if there was anything in the announcement.  Last summer it was extremely frustrating when the country had opened up after the first lockdown and the shielding were still being advised to continue their isolation.  

 

If we're being advised to shield this time after having the vaccine and the country opening upon after the 'last' lockdown there will be a good deal of despair.

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I wonder if they've purposely made sure the "normality" date is after the England v Scotland match lol

 

Not that it will make much difference, problem putting a date on something like that is throughout June people will just think we might as well do what we want now, if it's ok on 21st June then it's ok now. 

 

 

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I want things to get back to normal asap, but those of you questioning why the roadmap isn't quicker need to remember that the vaccine acts as a selection pressure on the virus meaning mutations are more likely - further exacerbated if we just let everyone mingle without restrictions immediately. If it does mutate to something the vaccines can't protect from, we're shafted.

 

Although slightly unpalatable, the slow and steady approach is the best one. Personally I can't wait for a bloody hair cut and a pint with my friends in the pub.

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28 minutes ago, egg_fried_rice said:

I want things to get back to normal asap, but those of you questioning why the roadmap isn't quicker need to remember that the vaccine acts as a selection pressure on the virus meaning mutations are more likely - further exacerbated if we just let everyone mingle without restrictions immediately. If it does mutate to something the vaccines can't protect from, we're shafted.

 

Although slightly unpalatable, the slow and steady approach is the best one. Personally I can't wait for a bloody hair cut and a pint with my friends in the pub.

I shaved all my hair off and sacked off my mates entirely. Job done.

 

Viva le lockdown.

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Weather warming up, virus declines, government lift restrictions with some complicated roadmap. Didn't this happen last year, are we just being lied to and the government are claiming things are getting better because of social distancing (which you would expect anyway) and the vaccine or is this just what happens naturally.  If this virus rears its ugly head come november, i think questions need to be asked about how a government can manipulate it's population and get away with it, unfortunately, who asks the questions?

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This route map seems an odd combination strategically:

- What seems like quite a gamble at the start, fully opening schools immediately at the time of highest residual risk

- Then a fairly cautious, staged approach over subsequent months

 

They've presumably looked carefully at the maths and feel that by 8th March daily infections will have dropped significantly from the current 10k+ and that vaccinations will be well into the under-65s & vulnerable younger cohorts?

 

If the daily infection rate is still a bit high (5k+?) on 8th March, there's an obvious risk that mass school returns - with kids bringing infections back into families - could cause infections to plateau at, or rise from a moderately high level. 

Hopefully the vaccination of most (but by no means all) vulnerable people by then should minimise impact on deaths and intensive care.

But that scenario could bring other risks: potential for later unlocking dates to be knocked back, undermining credibility & public morale; continued heavy flow of mild cases into hospital jeopardising catch-up with other health issues; greater chance of vaccine-resistant variants; higher infection rates going into autumn, especially if vaccine take-up among BAME groups and younger generations is lower than among the elderly....

 

In essence, it might represent a calculated gamble: get the undoubted multiple benefits of opening schools quickly & unlocking by the start of summer, while crossing fingers that (a) there's no significant resurgence in March/April, when a lot of vulnerable & over-50s have yet to be vaccinated; (b) no vaccine-resistant variant emerges in early months while infections are still high.

 

I just hope they know what they're doing (and/or get lucky). I get the multiple arguments for opening schools, but wonder if it would have been wiser to be more cautious and gradual about opening schools - and maybe a bit less cautious about the gradual opening of other activities between April and June (when vaccinations should be much more advanced)?

 

On a personal level, it's great to have hope - to have rough dates for using outdoor gym, visiting friends/family, going to cinema (& eventually football), booking holiday etc.

But I'd feel massively demoralised if that hope was undermined by problems arising from the big-bang opening of schools. After all, it was in September after schools reopened that the autumn surge really started....

 

:fc:

 

 

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3 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

Was there anything in the announcement regarding shielding?  Because there's a couple of million people in England who have been advised to shield up to now and opening up doesn't benefit them unless the shielding advice is similarly relaxed.

 

I had an email from Hancock after I'd had the vaccine advising me to continue to shield and only leave the house for exercise.  I didn't hear anything in the parts of the announcement repeated on the news to indicate that the shielding had been considered.

Shielding ends on 31st March for now .

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7 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Vaccinations should put an end to this for good. If it doesn't then what on earth was the point? Can't wait for the day we never have to hear of SAGE again.

 

Announcement was slightly better than the rumours last night but that wasn't an accident. They were always going to land something somewhere between what they should be (when all 50+ are vaccinated) and what the rumours were last night.

 

Feel sorry for pubs. Absolutely shafted yet again.

Same here. Also Museums and Galleries. Simply don't see why they have to wait a  whole month longer than shops when they are much safer environments due to strict online tickets for set times.

 

Generally though I think this is finally at least a decent enough plan.

Locally Leicestershire and Leicester have some of the highest current infection rates in the country. For eg that of the county is only 0.5 fewer per 100000 than the city of Birmingham. Infection levels are still very high to be considering doing much until a lot moore people are vaccinated.

I do worry about the get out clause on varients. Scientists love a good varient and it can take several weeks to assess their potential impact which could lead to perpetual lockdowns whilst these are investigated. let's hope we don't get too many more which give concern.

Edited by reynard
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2 hours ago, egg_fried_rice said:

I want things to get back to normal asap, but those of you questioning why the roadmap isn't quicker need to remember that the vaccine acts as a selection pressure on the virus meaning mutations are more likely - further exacerbated if we just let everyone mingle without restrictions immediately. If it does mutate to something the vaccines can't protect from, we're shafted.

 

Although slightly unpalatable, the slow and steady approach is the best one. Personally I can't wait for a bloody hair cut and a pint with my friends in the pub.

What’s the difference between mingling now and in May? Genuinely curious as I don’t know the answer. 
 

Surely if we’re worried about the virus mutating then restrictions should be here forever as it will mutate regardless of what we do. 

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1 hour ago, yorkie1999 said:

Weather warming up, virus declines, government lift restrictions with some complicated roadmap. Didn't this happen last year, are we just being lied to and the government are claiming things are getting better because of social distancing (which you would expect anyway) and the vaccine or is this just what happens naturally.  If this virus rears its ugly head come november, i think questions need to be asked about how a government can manipulate it's population and get away with it, unfortunately, who asks the questions?

 

There are plenty of people asking questions.  The problem is that these questions are only directed in the narrative of where things are going rather than looking at it from alternative points of view.  This and the fact that only the mainstream media seems to get a platform for doing so.

 

Take Peston for example, second up yesterday and his question(s) were pathetic.  I shook my head in disbelief.  It's time the govt were challenged outside of the narrative but the BBC and others seem reluctant to do so.

 

Worth mentioning the opposition to govt as well at this point.  Equally as useless at forming any argument outside of the narrative.  Starmer's position seems to be one of we'd of done the same, only quicker.  I'm disappointed in his performance also.

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Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

What’s the difference between mingling now and in May? Genuinely curious as I don’t know the answer. 
 

Surely if we’re worried about the virus mutating then restrictions should be here forever as it will mutate regardless of what we do. 

 

Because we'll have significantly more people vaccinated by then. So as the percentage of protected people increases and likelihood of transmission decreases, it becomes safer and safer to open up, despite the higher risk of mutations - it's all about timing and is a difficult balance to strike, but I've no doubt the government want to get back to normal as soon as safely possible. I think the difficulty of striking the balance has informed the cautiousness of the roadmap which gives them some wiggle room. Probably sensible.

 

Note - I am not an epidemiologist, but I've been chatting to my sister who works on some of the covid data for Kings College. My initial reaction was that this is too slow, but she reckons this is about right - pending consistently low case rates. @Alf Bentley makes a good point about the high risk strategy of reopening schools all at once which could affect this a bit, but we'll have to wait and see.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

It was opening the schools that caused a huge spike last time and I can see it doing the same again. 

More contact should mean more infections. I guess the interest will be in what it does to the infection levels over the next few weeks after opening. It'll be a good way to test how the vaccines are working in containing transmission.

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33 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

It was opening the schools that caused a huge spike last time and I can see it doing the same again. 

Yup, I think that there’s a real risk that we will be back to 60k cases a day by Easter.  
 

With the Kent variant cases increased 6x during December and some schools were doing some home learning in that term I believe.
 

The vaccines for over 70s should reduced total hospitalisations by about a third  ( or perhaps a little more) which obviously helps, but it all looks just a few weeks too optimistic to me (as usual for Boris).   During the run up to Easter other people in the other priority groups will start to be covered as well, which will start to help too.
 

It all depends whether the lateral flow tests can keep cases down in secondary schools.  Every household is linked to perhaps 90 others by schools ( form class and variation in classes across subjects) and no students, parents or teachers will be vaccinated yet.

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44 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

It was opening the schools that caused a huge spike last time and I can see it doing the same again. 

& then the Yang when they did close schools a week or so prior to Xmas break then stayed closed the spike kept going up even allowing for a few weeks grace period. It was more likely these new variants drove that spike not schools & now we are manging these with the vaccine rollout.

 

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1 hour ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

It was opening the schools that caused a huge spike last time and I can see it doing the same again. 

They will.

 

However, this time we've got 15m people vaccinated and with immunity, as well as people with natural immunity due to having caught the virus previously, so hopefully it'll combat it enough so it's not an issue.

 

This week has been slow on the vaccine front (both me updating the thread and supplies to the centres), but from next week it's going to ramp up apparently, we should be looking at 400k+ everyday again, probably more.

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