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17 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Surprisingly modelling was not discussed.  Whitty at one point questioned the need for them in response to journalists questions!  

 

However, Imperial College's modelling based on today's announcement by various oracle members including Ferguson can be found here:

 

https://t.co/NZ6LjIE4FJ?amp=1

 

They've omitted following trends in 2020 and the effects of seasonality in their models.  No wonder it wasn't brought up in the slide presentation today which attempted to paint a more optimistic view. 

You can read the combined outputs which is a consensus.

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/887434/18-spi-m-o-consensus-statement-17022020.pdf

 

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5 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Too slow.  The death & even hospitalisation rate is going to drop massively in the next couple of weeks.

I'd rather have things move quicker from a selfish point of view (gyms, salons open etc, fans back at football sooner) but I'll take a bit more patience now so we never have to lock down again. 

I wonder if they're buying themselves some wriggle room and could move things forward quicker if circumstance dictate, a bit of playing politics etc

They're giving people hope but obviously don't want them to take the piss too soon.

 

3 hours ago, Izzy said:

Fvck off Kuenssberg. "I know you won't want to put figures on how many more will die, but what sort of numbers do you think will die?"

 

2 hours ago, Corky said:

So many people who I hope bugger off out of sight once we're out of lockdowns. Kuenssburg, Peston, Hancock, Ferguson- all will hopefully drift away.

 

2 hours ago, Lcfc82 said:

These journalists are a right pain in arse, ask the most stupid questions 

Govts should always be held to account but some of the Qs from journalists over the past year have been laughable and I think the public at large have noticed that

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2 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I'd rather have things move quicker from a selfish point of view (gyms, salons open etc, fans back at football sooner) but I'll take a bit more patience now so we never have to lock down again. 

 

We're having another lockdown at some point, probably next autumn.

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5 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I'd rather have things move quicker from a selfish point of view (gyms, salons open etc, fans back at football sooner)

Thought that would be the last thing you'd be bothered about lol

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3 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Thanks for shattering my positivity Corky mate lol

I want to believe it's the last but you read the SAGE stuff, the tweet Leicester Loyal shared, this will always win out.

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2 hours ago, Stivo said:

I think perhaps you haven't looked at the date on that report.  Suffice to say that a consensus from just over a year ago is not a useful guide to what happens to coronavirus in summer.

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In non-UK related news:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56159756

 

A very grim milestone.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56156234

 

A little snippet from the other side of the world. The response hasn't been perfect, but it's been alright - and if they say they're going to get 70% vaccinated with the first jab by mid-September, then given what's happened so far I'm inclined to believe them.

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3 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

That’s 50% of the amount of deaths since this started in a non vaccinated population from a virus that is responsible for the deaths of mainly over 70’s, that have all been vaccinated! These figures don’t make sense.

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Vaccinations should put an end to this for good. If it doesn't then what on earth was the point? Can't wait for the day we never have to hear of SAGE again.

 

Announcement was slightly better than the rumours last night but that wasn't an accident. They were always going to land something somewhere between what they should be (when all 50+ are vaccinated) and what the rumours were last night.

 

Feel sorry for pubs. Absolutely shafted yet again.

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5 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

That’s 50% of the amount of deaths since this started in a non vaccinated population from a virus that is responsible for the deaths of mainly over 70’s, that have all been vaccinated! These figures don’t make sense.

I am beginning to struggle with the numbers. Maybe we’re not being told everything we need to about the effectiveness of the first jab without a booster ??

 

I know that in my mums care home, two residents have passed away in the last week having tested positive for covid within the past 28 days. and they all had the Pfizer jab early jan.  I assume they died from being old but their deaths will go in the covid column and I have no idea if them catching covid accelerated their passing.  The word from the place is that those who are catching the virus are not as ill as would be expected. I guess some of the elderly and vulnerable will still get poorly enough to push their bodies that bit too far.  

 

 

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Was there anything in the announcement regarding shielding?  Because there's a couple of million people in England who have been advised to shield up to now and opening up doesn't benefit them unless the shielding advice is similarly relaxed.

 

I had an email from Hancock after I'd had the vaccine advising me to continue to shield and only leave the house for exercise.  I didn't hear anything in the parts of the announcement repeated on the news to indicate that the shielding had been considered.

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9 minutes ago, Crinklyfox said:

Was there anything in the announcement regarding shielding?  Because there's a couple of million people in England who have been advised to shield up to now and opening up doesn't benefit them unless the shielding advice is similarly relaxed.

 

I had an email from Hancock after I'd had the vaccine advising me to continue to shield and only leave the house for exercise.  I didn't hear anything in the parts of the announcement repeated on the news to indicate that the shielding had been considered.

Wouldn’t you be best to consult with your doctor?

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8 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I think perhaps you haven't looked at the date on that report.  Suffice to say that a consensus from just over a year ago is not a useful guide to what happens to coronavirus in summer.

Arghh it’s the wrong link!!!:blush:
 

 I read the correct one but then got the year wrong and linked the wrong one .  
the one of interest is this.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf

 

 

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34 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Wouldn’t you be best to consult with your doctor?

I last spoke to my (specialist) doctor rather than my GP a week ago.  He wants me to shield.  I was interested to learn if there was anything in the announcement.  Last summer it was extremely frustrating when the country had opened up after the first lockdown and the shielding were still being advised to continue their isolation.  

 

If we're being advised to shield this time after having the vaccine and the country opening upon after the 'last' lockdown there will be a good deal of despair.

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I wonder if they've purposely made sure the "normality" date is after the England v Scotland match lol

 

Not that it will make much difference, problem putting a date on something like that is throughout June people will just think we might as well do what we want now, if it's ok on 21st June then it's ok now. 

 

 

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I want things to get back to normal asap, but those of you questioning why the roadmap isn't quicker need to remember that the vaccine acts as a selection pressure on the virus meaning mutations are more likely - further exacerbated if we just let everyone mingle without restrictions immediately. If it does mutate to something the vaccines can't protect from, we're shafted.

 

Although slightly unpalatable, the slow and steady approach is the best one. Personally I can't wait for a bloody hair cut and a pint with my friends in the pub.

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28 minutes ago, egg_fried_rice said:

I want things to get back to normal asap, but those of you questioning why the roadmap isn't quicker need to remember that the vaccine acts as a selection pressure on the virus meaning mutations are more likely - further exacerbated if we just let everyone mingle without restrictions immediately. If it does mutate to something the vaccines can't protect from, we're shafted.

 

Although slightly unpalatable, the slow and steady approach is the best one. Personally I can't wait for a bloody hair cut and a pint with my friends in the pub.

I shaved all my hair off and sacked off my mates entirely. Job done.

 

Viva le lockdown.

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Weather warming up, virus declines, government lift restrictions with some complicated roadmap. Didn't this happen last year, are we just being lied to and the government are claiming things are getting better because of social distancing (which you would expect anyway) and the vaccine or is this just what happens naturally.  If this virus rears its ugly head come november, i think questions need to be asked about how a government can manipulate it's population and get away with it, unfortunately, who asks the questions?

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This route map seems an odd combination strategically:

- What seems like quite a gamble at the start, fully opening schools immediately at the time of highest residual risk

- Then a fairly cautious, staged approach over subsequent months

 

They've presumably looked carefully at the maths and feel that by 8th March daily infections will have dropped significantly from the current 10k+ and that vaccinations will be well into the under-65s & vulnerable younger cohorts?

 

If the daily infection rate is still a bit high (5k+?) on 8th March, there's an obvious risk that mass school returns - with kids bringing infections back into families - could cause infections to plateau at, or rise from a moderately high level. 

Hopefully the vaccination of most (but by no means all) vulnerable people by then should minimise impact on deaths and intensive care.

But that scenario could bring other risks: potential for later unlocking dates to be knocked back, undermining credibility & public morale; continued heavy flow of mild cases into hospital jeopardising catch-up with other health issues; greater chance of vaccine-resistant variants; higher infection rates going into autumn, especially if vaccine take-up among BAME groups and younger generations is lower than among the elderly....

 

In essence, it might represent a calculated gamble: get the undoubted multiple benefits of opening schools quickly & unlocking by the start of summer, while crossing fingers that (a) there's no significant resurgence in March/April, when a lot of vulnerable & over-50s have yet to be vaccinated; (b) no vaccine-resistant variant emerges in early months while infections are still high.

 

I just hope they know what they're doing (and/or get lucky). I get the multiple arguments for opening schools, but wonder if it would have been wiser to be more cautious and gradual about opening schools - and maybe a bit less cautious about the gradual opening of other activities between April and June (when vaccinations should be much more advanced)?

 

On a personal level, it's great to have hope - to have rough dates for using outdoor gym, visiting friends/family, going to cinema (& eventually football), booking holiday etc.

But I'd feel massively demoralised if that hope was undermined by problems arising from the big-bang opening of schools. After all, it was in September after schools reopened that the autumn surge really started....

 

:fc:

 

 

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