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Coronavirus Thread

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2 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Which was the bigger spreader - schools or universities?

In the autumn definitely universities, you could track high COVID rates to university towns eg Exeter.
 

But I have seen it suggested that the fast spreading Kent variant is more easily passed between children - how accurate that is I obviously don’t know.  Peak cases in London was 1st jan and Leicester the week later, which kind of fits with the theory that school end of term before Christmas could have been significant.

 

I just think a two week delay for secondaries would have been prudent.  Post Easter all the priority groups will be vaccinated so the risks diminish.

 

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

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13 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

May be an image of text that says "Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 Share the total population that have received all doses prescribed the vaccination protocol. This data available or countrie which eport of doses administered by first and second doses. Add country 2.5% only Our World Data 2% 1.5% Spain Italy Germany EuropeanUnion 1% France 0.5% 0% Jan 2021 United Kingdom Jan15 Source Official data collated Jan3 2021 Jan 25 CHART Feb4 Last updated 22 February, 10:20 (London time) Feb14 14 MAP Feb21,2021 TABLE SOURCES CCBY Feb21,2021 DOWNLOAD"

 

No idea how reliable this is, but it's doing the rounds on social media over here. Presumably the figure for the UK will shoot up quickly and overtake the others though, as they have vaccinated so many people with the first dose already? 

It probably is accurate but bloody hell is it misleading and missing the point of the UK strategy.

 

Graph is completely irrelevant as a result.

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13 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

May be an image of text that says "Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 Share the total population that have received all doses prescribed the vaccination protocol. This data available or countrie which eport of doses administered by first and second doses. Add country 2.5% only Our World Data 2% 1.5% Spain Italy Germany EuropeanUnion 1% France 0.5% 0% Jan 2021 United Kingdom Jan15 Source Official data collated Jan3 2021 Jan 25 CHART Feb4 Last updated 22 February, 10:20 (London time) Feb14 14 MAP Feb21,2021 TABLE SOURCES CCBY Feb21,2021 DOWNLOAD"

 

No idea how reliable this is, but it's doing the rounds on social media over here. Presumably the figure for the UK will shoot up quickly and overtake the others though, as they have vaccinated so many people with the first dose already? 

I have no reason to disbelieve this graph.

 

But, as is always the case, data is just numbers. Meaning and interpretation is up to us. What sort of message is going around with this graph? Because I can see how it could be used to make either one interesting point regarding differences in rollout or another that would be completely inaccurate.

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9 minutes ago, Nalis said:

It probably is accurate but bloody hell is it misleading and missing the point of the UK strategy.

 

Graph is completely irrelevant as a result.

It's not irrelevant. You're right that it misses the point of the UK strategy but then you could argue that with our crowing we've missed the point of the EU strategy.

 

I think we've made the right choice at the moment, data certainly suggests so. But I'd prefer it if we leave the celebrations until we're out of this shit totally. 

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17 minutes ago, Stivo said:

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

You can guarantee that we will see either an exponential rise or an exponential fall, because all exponential means is that one figure is based on factors applied to a previous figure in the series.  (I am thinking of launching a campaign to persuade journalists that "exponential" is not a synonym for "fast.)

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37 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

No chance. 

I really hope I'm wrong, by the way. I don't want any more of this.

 

My comment was based on SAGE sending out dire messages.

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9 minutes ago, Dunge said:

In fact, the most interesting thing to me about the graph is Italy: Have they changed tactics or has supply dropped?

Italy have decided to follow the UK's lead with the delayed dose strategy. 

Edited by bovril
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2 minutes ago, bovril said:

It's not irrelevant. You're right that it misses the point of the UK strategy but then you could argue that with our crowing we've missed the point of the EU strategy.

 

I think we've made the right choice at the moment, data certainly suggests so. But I'd prefer it if we leave the celebrations until we're out of this shit totally. 

I'm not making this an 'us vs them' as its better if all national strategies eventually work (FWIW I'm a remainer so I dont have a hidden agenda against the EU if thats what you're getting at - apologies if it isnt),  just that its misleading.

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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (54.1%) EDITED: Previously said 51.1%.

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

Edited by Leicester_Loyal
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Just now, Nalis said:

I'm not making this an 'us vs them' as its better if all national strategies eventually work (FWIW I'm a remainer so I dont have a hidden agenda against the EU if thats what you're getting at - apologies if it isnt),  just that its misleading.

It's not but I understand the paranoia as everything is seen through the Brexit lens atm 

 

It's not really misleading though, it clearly shows that we have far fewer people "fully vaccinated" than others. But you're right that it misses the point. Time will tell.

Edited by bovril
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Be glad that Leicester isn't in Scotland.  Sturgeon is going to reintroduce variable tiers at the end of April.

 

She also sets out a "roadmap" that goes as far as 26th April + 3 weeks and doesn't mention holidays.  Whether she proposes to ban Scots from going on holiday at all, or simply wishes to ensure that they all go to England, I don't know.

 

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/live-first-ministers-plan-easing-23548525

Edited by dsr-burnley
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20 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (51.1%)

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

Except we are locking down, or subject to restrictions in some shape or form until a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated? Unless you mean people who are suggesting we live under these current lockdown conditions until everyone is vaccinated? I've not heard many people suggest that as a strategy.

 

Fortunately, the actual data modelling will be taking a few more things into account than just death demographics. Ones which take Vaccine Efficacy (after 1st and 2nd dose), % of people vaccinated, hospitalisation rates and demographics, slowing of mutations, long covid etc etc into account alongside deaths.

 

 

 

 

Edited by martyn
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23 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I have no reason to disbelieve this graph.

 

But, as is always the case, data is just numbers. Meaning and interpretation is up to us. What sort of message is going around with this graph? Because I can see how it could be used to make either one interesting point regarding differences in rollout or another that would be completely inaccurate.

The general consensus over here (Spain) seems to be that it is better to get the vulnerable fully vaccinated with both doses, than everyone with just the first. That is probably because that is the protocol the Spanish government are following though, and I fully expect the UK to overtake soon given the number of first doses administered compared to over here. 

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9 minutes ago, martyn said:

Except we are locking down, or subject to restrictions in some shape or form until a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated? Unless you mean people who are suggesting we live under these current lockdown conditions until everyone is vaccinated? I've not heard many people suggest that as a strategy.

 

Fortunately, the actual data modelling will be taking a few more things into account than just death demographics. Ones which take Vaccine Efficacy (after 1st and 2nd dose), % of people vaccinated, hospitalisation rates and demographics, slowing of mutations, long covid etc etc into account alongside deaths.

 

 

Yeah I meant those who are saying carry on as we are now until everyone has been vaccinated, seen a few say it although they are probably on the extreme end of the scale tbf.

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5 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

The general consensus over here (Spain) seems to be that it is better to get the vulnerable fully vaccinated with both doses, than everyone with just the first. That is probably because that is the protocol the Spanish government are following though, and I fully expect the UK to overtake soon given the number of first doses administered compared to over here. 

I can see a logic in that if you have predominantly the Pfizer vaccine. It was a big call from our medics (and government to go along with them) to delay the Pfizer second dose when the company themselves were warning that that hadn’t been tested. There are recent signs that Pfizer are loosening that message based on more recent results though, so maybe Spain will change tactics.

 

(With the AZ vaccine it wasn’t such a big call - the scientists behind it were actively advising it.)

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1 hour ago, Stivo said:

In the autumn definitely universities, you could track high COVID rates to university towns eg Exeter.
 

But I have seen it suggested that the fast spreading Kent variant is more easily passed between children - how accurate that is I obviously don’t know.  Peak cases in London was 1st jan and Leicester the week later, which kind of fits with the theory that school end of term before Christmas could have been significant.

 

I just think a two week delay for secondaries would have been prudent.  Post Easter all the priority groups will be vaccinated so the risks diminish.

 

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

Pound to a pinch of the brown stuff Stivo if they did that no doubt there would be people saying why send them back a week before easter break might as well leave it whats the point sending them in risking infections & them sitting with the rellies over easter for the sake of a week blah blah.

 

I imagine its done in 1 big hit knowing there is that natural break 3 weeks away which is then almost 3 weeks in itself.

Edited by BKLFox
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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (51.1%)

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

be nice if nhs uk could do maths as 44359 out of 81854 is not 51.1% 

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1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

You can guarantee that we will see either an exponential rise or an exponential fall, because all exponential means is that one figure is based on factors applied to a previous figure in the series.  (I am thinking of launching a campaign to persuade journalists that "exponential" is not a synonym for "fast.)

I can almost guarantee that we will se a rise or fall but it will definitely not be exponential

 

here endeth the maths lessons for today.

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