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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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martyn

martyn

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (51.1%)

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

Except we are locking down, or subject to restrictions in some shape or form until a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated? Unless you mean people who are suggesting we live under these current lockdown conditions until everyone is vaccinated? I've not heard many people suggest that as a strategy.

 

Fortunately, the actual data modelling will be taking a few more things into account than just death demographics. Ones which take Vaccine Efficacy (after 1st and 2nd dose), % of people vaccinated, hospitalisation rates and demographics, slowing of mutations, long covid etc etc into account alongside deaths.

 

 

 

 

Edited by martyn
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FoxesDeb

FoxesDeb

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I have no reason to disbelieve this graph.

 

But, as is always the case, data is just numbers. Meaning and interpretation is up to us. What sort of message is going around with this graph? Because I can see how it could be used to make either one interesting point regarding differences in rollout or another that would be completely inaccurate.

The general consensus over here (Spain) seems to be that it is better to get the vulnerable fully vaccinated with both doses, than everyone with just the first. That is probably because that is the protocol the Spanish government are following though, and I fully expect the UK to overtake soon given the number of first doses administered compared to over here. 

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, martyn said:

Except we are locking down, or subject to restrictions in some shape or form until a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated? Unless you mean people who are suggesting we live under these current lockdown conditions until everyone is vaccinated? I've not heard many people suggest that as a strategy.

 

Fortunately, the actual data modelling will be taking a few more things into account than just death demographics. Ones which take Vaccine Efficacy (after 1st and 2nd dose), % of people vaccinated, hospitalisation rates and demographics, slowing of mutations, long covid etc etc into account alongside deaths.

 

 

Yeah I meant those who are saying carry on as we are now until everyone has been vaccinated, seen a few say it although they are probably on the extreme end of the scale tbf.

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Dunge

Dunge

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

The general consensus over here (Spain) seems to be that it is better to get the vulnerable fully vaccinated with both doses, than everyone with just the first. That is probably because that is the protocol the Spanish government are following though, and I fully expect the UK to overtake soon given the number of first doses administered compared to over here. 

I can see a logic in that if you have predominantly the Pfizer vaccine. It was a big call from our medics (and government to go along with them) to delay the Pfizer second dose when the company themselves were warning that that hadn’t been tested. There are recent signs that Pfizer are loosening that message based on more recent results though, so maybe Spain will change tactics.

 

(With the AZ vaccine it wasn’t such a big call - the scientists behind it were actively advising it.)

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BKLFox

BKLFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Stivo said:

In the autumn definitely universities, you could track high COVID rates to university towns eg Exeter.
 

But I have seen it suggested that the fast spreading Kent variant is more easily passed between children - how accurate that is I obviously don’t know.  Peak cases in London was 1st jan and Leicester the week later, which kind of fits with the theory that school end of term before Christmas could have been significant.

 

I just think a two week delay for secondaries would have been prudent.  Post Easter all the priority groups will be vaccinated so the risks diminish.

 

There will be a 7-10 day lag so cases should fall anyway until 15/16 March.  I worry that we will see an exponential rise but perhaps the lateral flow tests will work...

Pound to a pinch of the brown stuff Stivo if they did that no doubt there would be people saying why send them back a week before easter break might as well leave it whats the point sending them in risking infections & them sitting with the rellies over easter for the sake of a week blah blah.

 

I imagine its done in 1 big hit knowing there is that natural break 3 weeks away which is then almost 3 weeks in itself.

Edited by BKLFox
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January47

January47

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Says 81,854 people have tested positive and died in England in total.

 

By age:

0 - 19 years of age: 36 (0.04%)

20 - 39 years of age: 553 (0.67%)

40 - 59 years of age: 5730 (7%)

60 - 79 years of age: 31,176 (38%)

80+ years of age: 44,359 (51.1%)

 

No mention of underlying conditions in that, nor obesity levels etc. Just proves how the 'lockdown until everyone has been vaccinated' crowd need to be ignored from this point onwards.

be nice if nhs uk could do maths as 44359 out of 81854 is not 51.1% 

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January47

January47

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

You can guarantee that we will see either an exponential rise or an exponential fall, because all exponential means is that one figure is based on factors applied to a previous figure in the series.  (I am thinking of launching a campaign to persuade journalists that "exponential" is not a synonym for "fast.)

I can almost guarantee that we will se a rise or fall but it will definitely not be exponential

 

here endeth the maths lessons for today.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, reynard said:

Same here. Also Museums and Galleries. Simply don't see why they have to wait a  whole month longer than shops when they are much safer environments due to strict online tickets for set times.

 

Generally though I think this is finally at least a decent enough plan.

Locally Leicestershire and Leicester have some of the highest current infection rates in the country. For eg that of the county is only 0.5 fewer per 100000 than the city of Birmingham. Infection levels are still very high to be considering doing much until a lot moore people are vaccinated.

I do worry about the get out clause on varients. Scientists love a good varient and it can take several weeks to assess their potential impact which could lead to perpetual lockdowns whilst these are investigated. let's hope we don't get too many more which give concern.

Yep. It's a disgrace. What even is their justification for it?

 

Scientists who nobody had heard of before this and general bedwetters will do their best to prolong this hell as long as they can but I think the overriding feeling about yesterday personally is that, whilst it is far from perfect, the general mood seems to have swung to a more positive one and I think now there's a vaccine too people are going to be less accepting of any future restrictions (I hope anyway). The fact he's laid a date down is promising.

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Parafox

Parafox

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Scientists who nobody had heard of before this and general bedwetters will do their best to prolong this hell as long as they can 

I and I'm sure many others, have wondered if these people are having some kind of power trip.

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FoxesDeb

FoxesDeb

Posted
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Posted
15 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Yep. It's a disgrace. What even is their justification for it?

 

Scientists who nobody had heard of before this and general bedwetters will do their best to prolong this hell as long as they can but I think the overriding feeling about yesterday personally is that, whilst it is far from perfect, the general mood seems to have swung to a more positive one and I think now there's a vaccine too people are going to be less accepting of any future restrictions (I hope anyway). The fact he's laid a date down is promising.

Just because we hadn't heard of them before this doesn't mean their facts and/or opinions are not valid

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harpendenfox

harpendenfox

Posted
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58 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Yep. It's a disgrace. What even is their justification for it?

 

Scientists who nobody had heard of before this and general bedwetters will do their best to prolong this hell as long as they can but I think the overriding feeling about yesterday personally is that, whilst it is far from perfect, the general mood seems to have swung to a more positive one and I think now there's a vaccine too people are going to be less accepting of any future restrictions (I hope anyway). The fact he's laid a date down is promising.

Scientists use data and evidence to provide advice. They are focussed on the damage caused by Covid, and thus it is only logical they seek to suppress the virus as much as possible.

 

Their  caution does not make them bedwetters. And I don’t think anyone wants lockdown to be any longer than is necessary. Questioning the character of those who hold a different view to your own is not a very mature way to look at things.

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foxile5

foxile5

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

 ...my missus lost her antibodies after about six months .....and got it again few months on from that ...bit grim that they’re so ill to end up in hospital....

I mean we have to open up. I'd prefer it to be under the umbrella of a higher number of vaccinations.

 

But greater minds than ours I suppose. 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

True - but wasn't really what I was getting at, it's more that they can keep themselves in the spotlight.

I'm at least reasonably sure most scientists didn't get into the job for the fame. There are far easier careers to satisfy ones ego in such a way.

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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'm at least reasonably sure most scientists didn't get into the job for the fame. There are far easier careers to satisfy ones ego in such a way.

The ones doing most of the hard work on modelling, analysis for the tracking studies, vaccine development, don't even get on the tv

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