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Coronavirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

We will still get positive tests, just not from those most at risk.  We are now approaching the point where most of the country is living under restrictions to protect a small minority, at vast cost.

 

The switch to LF testing will see the rates come down.  As will seasonality.  The problem is, Boris has to ensure that restrictions are lifted in line with how the rates are likely to fall between now and July.  Data would suggest a lengthy but steady drop off, therefore we've got a lengthy easing of restrictions.  What he wouldn't do, is to ease off completely and still see rates continue to drop off at a lengthy and steady rate.  This will put the whole why lockdown in the first place argument back at the forefront and he won't want that.  Much easier to go with cautious in line with data approach rather than entertain the "but if we lift lockdown everything goes through the roof" argument for which there is little evidence either way.  Contrast that with emerging data in the US though and it's becoming clearer that lockdowns vs no lockdowns hasn't shown any clear benefits with similar outcomes achieved going either way.

 

It will be interesting to see what Whitty/Valance say about it in 15 minutes time but I'm expecting a slide of doom or "projections" in there somewhere should they be in attendance.

 

 

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What's all this "open up too soon" stuff about? They are looking to make changes every five weeks. It's hardly Usain Bolt-like.

 

I'm afraid we're going to have to live with this, variants and all.

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Fvck off Kuenssberg.

 

"I know you won't want to put figures on how many more will die, but what sort of numbers do you think will die?"

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1 minute ago, Izzy said:

Fvck off Kuenssberg.

 

"I know you won't want to put figures on how many more will die, but what sort of numbers do you think will die?"

Is she the moron that said 'And when do you expect to be able to tell people Coronavirus is finally all over?' About 30 seconds after they told us we'll be living with it forever like the flu.

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46 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Being a pessimist I do worry about us in Leicester being left in lockdown again, it’ll be horrendous if it happens again.

bj said in his commons briefing that it will be a country as a whole that moves out of lockdown together. no more local

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15 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Fvck off Kuenssberg.

 

"I know you won't want to put figures on how many more will die, but what sort of numbers do you think will die?"

Agree. 

 

But I'm amazed people still watch this shite.  All the stuff is leaked by this shithouse govt anyway to test reaction before any briefing anyway

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6 minutes ago, Izzy said:

That Dail Mail nob lol

 

"What happened to the Buccaneer Boris who won the election? Have you become a gloomster?"

Hope his editor gives him a slap for that one. You can ask him literally anything and that's what you come up with.

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1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

Agree. 

 

But I'm amazed people still watch this shite.  All the stuff is leaked by this shithouse govt anyway to test reaction before any briefing anyway

Yeah I'm only watching it on my laptop in my office so I don't have to be in the same room as the wife and kids tbf

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5 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Yeah I'm only watching it on my laptop in my office so I don't have to be in the same room as the wife and kids tbf

Most people take their laptop upstairs away from the family to watch porn, Izzy watches a Coronavirus briefing lol

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surely it’s not about cases but about hospitalisations?  I presume that the data over the next six weeks will show how that relationship is changing thanks to the vaccine effect .....however, if large tranches of the population are not getting vaccinated (potentially the BAME community according to some studies  ) then surely there is a danger that the NHS remains under too much pressure and this drags on longer than it needs to  ???

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Surprisingly modelling was not discussed.  Whitty at one point questioned the need for them in response to journalists questions!  

 

However, Imperial College's modelling based on today's announcement by various oracle members including Ferguson can be found here:

 

https://t.co/NZ6LjIE4FJ?amp=1

 

They've omitted following trends in 2020 and the effects of seasonality in their models.  No wonder it wasn't brought up in the slide presentation today which attempted to paint a more optimistic view. 

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5 hours ago, String fellow said:

The Prime Minister and his government have almost certainly helped save my life, firstly by telling me (and everyone else of my age who is quite likely to die if they catch a big dose of Covid-19) to stay indoors and take all the other precautions, then secondly by providing me with the Pfizer vaccine at the earliest possible opportunity (just after Christmas).

An act of government isn't the same as fairness but I'm glad you feel looked after. 

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1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

surely it’s not about cases but about hospitalisations?  I presume that the data over the next six weeks will show how that relationship is changing thanks to the vaccine effect .....however, if large tranches of the population are not getting vaccinated (potentially the BAME community according to some studies  ) then surely there is a danger that the NHS remains under too much pressure and this drags on longer than it needs to  ???

Any stats on how many existing hospitalisations are those under 50?

 

At a pure guess, 20% tops. 

 

And assuming take up of vaccine in those aged 25-50 is a modest 30%.....thatd shave further numbers off future hospitalizations. 

 

Basically, I can't see the NHS remaining under this level of current  pressure....things will ease

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1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

surely it’s not about cases but about hospitalisations?  I presume that the data over the next six weeks will show how that relationship is changing thanks to the vaccine effect .....however, if large tranches of the population are not getting vaccinated (potentially the BAME community according to some studies  ) then surely there is a danger that the NHS remains under too much pressure and this drags on longer than it needs to  ???

Indeed.  90% protection against hospitalisation with 85% take up say reduces hospitalisations by 75% which is great.  The currently vaccinated group is only about 50% of hospitalisations. So it will reduce it by 37% overall, not so great. 

With secondary schools going back it’s now a race between the exponential rise of the kent variant causing hospital admissions, the vaccination program for the other priority groups and the Easter school holidays.

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