2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ric Flair]

35 minutes ago, Hollyfox said:

Maybe Liverpool (hate to say it) get through v Madrid tonight and then them and Chelsea kick the sh%t out of each other during the 2 CL semi games. 

 

Might affect their league form?? 

22 man brawl, numerous players suspended from World football. The end

[Hollyfox]

8 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

22 man brawl, numerous players suspended from World football. The end

Couple of broken legs or pulled hamstrings?? 

[Nalis]

How delicious would it be if Chelsea lost the Champions league final, fa cup final and finished 5th?

[Sunbury Fox]

54 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

 

How have they worked this out? Surprised we've got a 57% chance of UCL and West Ham a 36% chance when they're one point behind us and have an easier run in on paper? 

 

Having planned to ban myself from media for a few days, I stupidly listened to the  Guardian Football Weekly podcast earlier today. They concluded that Liverpool and Chelsea now have UCL signed and sealed. In fact, when asked who'd finish in the top 4, Jonathan Wilson, one of the panel, immediately said Chelsea and Liverpool before talking about West Ham's chances. He didn't even mention us at all!! In some ways it fits more neatly with me for us to be written off in this way, as for the vast majority of my 51 years we've not been in the reckoning for winning anything!

Edited 14 April 2021 by Sunbury Fox

[FoxesWalk]

1 hour ago, Sunbury Fox said:

How have they worked this out? Surprised we've got a 57% chance of UCL and West Ham a 36% chance when they're one point behind us and have an easier run in on paper? 

 

Having planned to ban myself from media for a few days, I stupidly listened to the  Guardian Football Weekly podcast earlier today. They concluded that Liverpool and Chelsea now have UCL signed and sealed. In fact, when asked who'd finish in the top 4, Jonathan Wilson, one of the panel, immediately said Chelsea and Liverpool before talking about West Ham's chances. He didn't even mention us at all!! In some ways it fits more neatly with me for us to be written off in this way, as for the vast majority of my 51 years we've not been in the reckoning for winning anything!

These guys use pure data. The guy behind that site started out creating moneyball statistical modelling stuff for baseball, before going to work predicting elections. Now back to doing some sports stuff also. 

Edited 14 April 2021 by FoxesWalk

[fuchsntf]

11 hours ago, Pliskin said:

Where I don’t disagree with your point, we have to start asking questions why we’ve (if it happens) have chucked in the top four twice in a row when we’ve been pretty much ever present in the top four for two seasons...... last season there were literally no excuses, we were losing to absolute fodder. At some point the mentality has to be questioned, the club are ambitious and want to sniff the balls of the “top clubs” but, at the moment we seem unable to rise to the occasions. 
 

Lose the cup semi final, and I think it’s pretty much confirmed we can’t handle big occasions. 

Yes I suppose we all want more...

But for me at the moment we are driving we can Mix it with the Top 5...with that come The various forms  & Mixed fortunes of Top 3-7....

This is Really where we are...We I believe  would of taken more points, therefore Making a strong Challenge for Top 4 ...

But many fans are blind, ignoring & denying to the fact we have had our better Quality players available..injuries were kept Quiet over the last 3 months

Of last season, and Chronic Major injuries this season...despite that we have also found Quality in put fringe players,who gave us a real Lift up....

If our Elite players had ,had 6-8 games together, then we might be sitting more comfortable....Our can you Build your team character,System und Rythme

with a dep!eted squad in a condensed season Not knowing neither your Bline,Midfield, & Front line when your quality players havent played  even 65% of the

season together... Also fans should understand as long Term fans & some moderate/Junior Club ex-player that players returning from chronic/long Term injuries,

some being hit again It takes  anything from a quarter/half/ through to a Full season ,to the and define that high quality consistent form....

In this high level we find ourselves its the First time, this manager & this group

 habe took only 2 seasons + with New buys, Instant First choice have put in their Penny-worth to realise and achieve this high level....

I am not having it that we have failed twice in 2 seasons..."WE have only  achieved "

 

Now all the complainers, , werent they the  exact groups, and individuals who posted and predicted we would can only Hope to fight for the 8-12 positions...

Chewing the squad out when they have achieved so much more....

Even having the Audacity to criticise Rodgers career & Making out, his career ( and others like Guardiola) has been total rubbish & far too cautious

I Never make predictions, I just Support & encourage for those moments a season gives us.

If We had these Top players, over These 2 seasons ( still in a Building stage) for an high percentage of the time, I might of taken Another stance...

5 from our competitors, Plus Maybe Another 3, can Ride 4-6 injuries, their squads Simply have more Quality and finances, in the back pocket...

So far put positives from this seasom.....some squad players, Held their own when it mattered....Tielemans ever-precense...Justin,Fofana,Castagna

came in & kept our high quality on a high flame...Soyuncu,Albrighton ....Upped their Stars even more, Nacho like the other 2 has pushed themselves

further into Another Quality zone...These last few months...!!!

 

Failure.....!!!!    We are what we are, we arent as Good as some will have,however Dont underrate what we have put on the table, and how little Ressources we have... Compared to our competitors...!!

 

 

 

[oxtonfox]

We’re on the slide. Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us.

In a last 7 fixtures: West Brom are on a great escape run 0 pts,  Palace have nowt to play for 3 pts. Southampton will get revenge for 0-9 and Newcastle will get a draw. Lose to Chelsea and Man Utd and maybe beat Spuds before Brendan joins them 😉

 

We should get sixth with a bit of luck and 63 pts like last year. Sorry for being Nostradamus. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

One potential dynamic which could make the West Brom game that little bit harder for us... it’s very conceivable that we start it in 5th position in the table. 
 

Hoping I’m wrong.

[Ricey]

6 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

One potential dynamic which could make the West Brom game that little bit harder for us... it’s very conceivable that we start it in 5th position in the table. 
 

Hoping I’m wrong.

Highly conceivable.

 

West Brom also have a 10 day rest beforehand.

 

Palace have a 16 day rest before playing us!

[Ric Flair]

43 minutes ago, oxtonfox said:

We’re on the slide. Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us.

In a last 7 fixtures: West Brom are on a great escape run 0 pts,  Palace have nowt to play for 3 pts. Southampton will get revenge for 0-9 and Newcastle will get a draw. Lose to Chelsea and Man Utd and maybe beat Spuds before Brendan joins them 😉

 

We should get sixth with a bit of luck and 63 pts like last year. Sorry for being Nostradamus. 

Thursdays game vs West Brom is huge, i don't think we've ever lost 3 games under Rodgers and certainly not this season. We tend to bounce back with a quick fire 2-3 wins and if so then we are back amongst it.

[Simmo86]

46 minutes ago, oxtonfox said:

We’re on the slide. Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us.

In a last 7 fixtures: West Brom are on a great escape run 0 pts,  Palace have nowt to play for 3 pts. Southampton will get revenge for 0-9 and Newcastle will get a draw. Lose to Chelsea and Man Utd and maybe beat Spuds before Brendan joins them 😉

 

We should get sixth with a bit of luck and 63 pts like last year. Sorry for being Nostradamus. 

😂😂

 

****ing hell man, cheer up a bit and just enjoy it 

[Hollyfox]

59 minutes ago, oxtonfox said:

We’re on the slide. Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us.

In a last 7 fixtures: West Brom are on a great escape run 0 pts,  Palace have nowt to play for 3 pts. Southampton will get revenge for 0-9 and Newcastle will get a draw. Lose to Chelsea and Man Utd and maybe beat Spuds before Brendan joins them 😉

 

We should get sixth with a bit of luck and 63 pts like last year. Sorry for being Nostradamus. 

Maybe a convincing win for Southampton in our FA Cup semi final, just to put the cherry on the cake🙄

[Detroit Blues]

54 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Highly conceivable.

 

West Brom also have a 10 day rest beforehand.

 

Palace have a 16 day rest before playing us!

With the way West Brom have been playing of late, a few weeks to cool off might not be the worst thing for us. 

[Dan LCFC]

It would be a shame to miss out again, I don't think as big a bottling as last season (which I'm sorry, it's a bottling) but most of all because we'd have failed to take proper advantage of Chelsea and Liverpool's underperformance.

[Bert]

On 11/04/2021 at 20:03, Ric Flair said:

Can we get knocked out? Don't West Ham have Chelsea next week?

Yeah. West Ham beat Newcastle and Liverpool beat Leeds. 

[chapero82]

12 hours ago, oxtonfox said:

We’re on the slide. Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us.

In a last 7 fixtures: West Brom are on a great escape run 0 pts,  Palace have nowt to play for 3 pts. Southampton will get revenge for 0-9 and Newcastle will get a draw. Lose to Chelsea and Man Utd and maybe beat Spuds before Brendan joins them 😉

 

We should get sixth with a bit of luck and 63 pts like last year. Sorry for being Nostradamus. 

I thought I was negative  I’m feeling quite positive about our next 4 games

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Bert said:

Yeah. West Ham beat Newcastle and Liverpool beat Leeds. 

Liverpool can't overtake us yet, but Chelsea play before us.

[Happy Fox]

Now is the time for all the players to step up to the task, champions league is vital for us. I feel we will definitely lose a player or two if we fail to make it.

[s11nny]

That 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace this season where we missed chances galore including a penalty in the 1st half and Barnes with a last min equaliser, was easily the most infuriating game to watch for me this season. I knew that game could potentially cost us and I just want to put a friendly middle finger up to everyone who tried to stay positive about that result aha.

 

I'm sure we could have done better in other games too but this one in particular stands out for me. 

[kiwiturk]

Reading stats, analysis, comments and predictions in both UK and around the world .

Except Bhutan news sport section🤣🤣, nobody is even mentioning our names in top 4.

 

[davieG]

6 minutes ago, kiwiturk said:

Reading stats, analysis, comments and predictions in both UK and around the world .

Except Bhutan news sport section🤣🤣, nobody is even mentioning our names in top 4.

 

Their advertising revenues are based on numbers so because they know most of their readers, listeners and viewers are mostly rich 6 fans that's who they comment on.

[st albans fox]

3 hours ago, davieG said:

Their advertising revenues are based on numbers so because they know most of their readers, listeners and viewers are mostly rich 6 fans that's who they comment on.

cynical but 100% right …...

[messerschmitt]

Lets not get down about this, Man City palyed us off the park like they did to Dortmund last night

West Ham got gifted the game they didn't look that good, they're getting every but of luck going at the moment it won't last.

Things will look entirely different when we've won the next 2 games.

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, messerschmitt said:

Lets not get down about this, Man City palyed us off the park like they did to Dortmund last night

West Ham got gifted the game they didn't look that good, they're getting every but of luck going at the moment it won't last.

Things will look entirely different when we've won the next 2 games.

I like your thinking.

[KrefelderFox666]

While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

Edited 15 April 2021 by KrefelderFox666