2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Gerard]

1 hour ago, nnfox said:

The reason why we failed to make CL last season was not down to not being able to cope with injuries when they came, it was more to do with a failure to beat Norwich home or away, losing to Burnley, setting up scared at Old Trafford early in the season when they were absolutely there for the taking, and allowing a team that we had beaten 9-0 come to our place and turn us over..

 

People talk about fine margins and it's true.  To finish top 4, you have to bust a gut to win at all costs, every week, without fail, so that when you do have injuries and suspensions and might not perform at your peak, you have the cushion.

 

This season, if we don't make it, it'll be because we went absolutely AWOL in home games against West Ham, Aston Villa, Fulham, Everton and Leeds.  Not because we don't get the required points from Man U, Chelsea and Spurs in the final three games,  If we'd have won two of those five horrific games, like we should have, then the tone in here would be very different.

 

TBF the teams around us have had similar results. Liverpool lost about six home games on the trot to mainly rubbish. Chelsea took 1pt from 6 vs West Brom, Man Utd lost at home to Sheffield Utd and those are just from memory.

[nnfox]

7 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

TBF the teams around us have had similar results. Liverpool lost about six home games on the trot to mainly rubbish. Chelsea took 1pt from 6 vs West Brom, Man Utd lost at home to Sheffield Utd and those are just from memory.

Which makes it even more frustrating.

[walkerleeds]

7 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Yep. And this is where we failed last year. It wasn't the results against United and spurs, it was the results against Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Norwich that did for us.

 

We've recently beaten Brighton, Villa, Fulham and Sheff U, so can't see this being a problem.

 

People also seem to be forgetting we've beaten Chelsea and Spurs in the league already this season too.

[Ric Flair]

The permutations to this season and us potentially getting top 4 is essentially only likely if we win these next 4 games, or at least get 10 points and then 4-6 in the remaining 3 games.

 

This end to the season was never going to be easy, it's never been a huge margin to 5th like it was last season as a) we have been decent throughout the season without being exceptional like that 8 game winning run last season and b) the chasing pack haven't been quite as bad as last season even though its seemed like they have due to Liverpools troubles and Spurs and Arsenal continuing to be the pits.

 

Chelsea though have quickly recovered from their early winter slump and we've done incredibly well to remain in the top 3 all this time given our injuries, haggling various competitions and zero signings in January. 

 

We cannot let this define us, we still have a huge opportunity to be successful this season and its not so much the league position that I'll measure this on but the points total. We got 62 last season and finished 5th, we could get 72 this season and still finish 5th and it feels like we will at the least need to get to 69-70 to stand a chance of staying in the top 4.

 

But I'm not downbeat, we've lost 2 tough games and our form has dropped off a bit in the last 10-12 games but not anywhere near the nosedive that we are tarring ourselves with from last season and that's the bottom line.

 

We need to regroup, focus and finish the job in the league and Cup this season. I'm proud of this group, however much they frustrate me at times. We are bloody special, take that for granted if you want but we'll look back fondly on this era and I just hope we have something to properly appreciate as I know there's fans who don't regard what we are doing as anything other than par for the course. Rubbish.

 

Win these next 5 Cup and league games and let those around us and ahead of us worry about the final 3-4 fixtures as I'm telling you now, if we do win these next batch of games then we will be a nightmare to deal with and I'll fcukin love it.

[Clever Fox]

On 13/04/2021 at 06:14, nnfox said:

Everton have too many injuries, I don't see them having enough to get anywhere near.

Spurs are imploding under Mourinho and can't see them making it.

West Ham won't do it.  They have too many injuries.  Antonio, Rice, Ogbonna and now potentially Noble and Cresswell gone.

Therefore, it's between us, Liverpool and Chelsea.  

 

The good news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  The bad news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  That game could well be a cup final for us.  Ironically, it is scheduled for the actual Cup Final day, and could be the actual Cup Final.

 

2 hours ago, Nick said:

Looking at Liverpool and Spurs' fixtures its really hard not to be a little pessimistic – but also looking at their performances of late, it's also conceivable they will drop points. But it's hard not to think we won't need wins against West Brom, Southampton, Palace & Newcastle to end up where we want to be as we no longer have the points buffer of any great significance to accommodate losses. 

 

 

 

I just don't see Liverpool being involved at all. Not that they don't have the ability. But there's something very wrong in the Liverpool squad right now.

They are blowing hot and cold and that usually means unrest within the squad so results suffer as we've seen for a while now.

 

Chelsea will qualify along with Utd. So we need to perform at our best , If we do we should be ok. I also believe the improvement in the Weather will also help us, as it tends to help the better teams. with slicker passing..  The return of Barnes should also help.

 

 

So many variables I know,  but it's certainly exciting to watch and a great time to be a Fan.

 

[KrefelderFox666]

25 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

The permutations to this season and us potentially getting top 4 is essentially only likely if we win these next 4 games, or at least get 10 points and then 4-6 in the remaining 3 games.

 

This end to the season was never going to be easy, it's never been a huge margin to 5th like it was last season as a) we have been decent throughout the season without being exceptional like that 8 game winning run last season and b) the chasing pack haven't been quite as bad as last season even though its seemed like they have due to Liverpools troubles and Spurs and Arsenal continuing to be the pits.

 

Chelsea though have quickly recovered from their early winter slump and we've done incredibly well to remain in the top 3 all this time given our injuries, haggling various competitions and zero signings in January. 

 

We cannot let this define us, we still have a huge opportunity to be successful this season and its not so much the league position that I'll measure this on but the points total. We got 62 last season and finished 5th, we could get 72 this season and still finish 5th and it feels like we will at the least need to get to 69-70 to stand a chance of staying in the top 4.

 

But I'm not downbeat, we've lost 2 tough games and our form has dropped off a bit in the last 10-12 games but not anywhere near the nosedive that we are tarring ourselves with from last season and that's the bottom line.

 

We need to regroup, focus and finish the job in the league and Cup this season. I'm proud of this group, however much they frustrate me at times. We are bloody special, take that for granted if you want but we'll look back fondly on this era and I just hope we have something to properly appreciate as I know there's fans who don't regard what we are doing as anything other than par for the course. Rubbish.

 

Win these next 5 Cup and league games and let those around us and ahead of us worry about the final 3-4 fixtures as I'm telling you now, if we do win these next batch of games then we will be a nightmare to deal with and I'll fcukin love it.

I think in your minimum scenario (i.e. 10 points and then 4 from last three games) we would comfortably finish Top 4, probably even 3rd. I don't think we need that many points but of course the more the better. I still think 12 points will be enough. That would mean both Chelsea and West Ham need to win 5 out of 7 games or Liverpool win 5 and get at least 1 draw from the remaining 7. It is unlikely that any team will go unbeaten until the end of the season.

 

However, of course anything could happen in football.

 

My main concern with the West Brom and Palace games is that we will have 3 days rest between each matchday (i.e. pre West Brom and pre Palace). West Brom have 9 clear days and Palace 15 clear days. They will have a much better preparation than us and in the case of West Brom, they are finding a bit of form. It would be amazing if we get 6 points from those games. I just fear that we will drop a few points in those 2 games.

[Reg Vardy]

3 hours ago, Nick said:

Looking at Liverpool and Spurs' fixtures its really hard not to be a little pessimistic – but also looking at their performances of late, it's also conceivable they will drop points. But it's hard not to think we won't need wins against West Brom, Southampton, Palace & Newcastle to end up where we want to be as we no longer have the points buffer of any great significance to accommodate losses. 

we are 7 points clear of Spurs...they face Everton Friday.......they won't catch us.....

[CosbehFox]

3 hours ago, nnfox said:

The reason why we failed to make CL last season was not down to not being able to cope with injuries when they came, it was more to do with a failure to beat Norwich home or away, losing to Burnley, setting up scared at Old Trafford early in the season when they were absolutely there for the taking, and allowing a team that we had beaten 9-0 come to our place and turn us over..

 

People talk about fine margins and it's true.  To finish top 4, you have to bust a gut to win at all costs, every week, without fail, so that when you do have injuries and suspensions and might not perform at your peak, you have the cushion.

 

This season, if we don't make it, it'll be because we went absolutely AWOL in home games against West Ham, Aston Villa, Fulham, Everton and Leeds.  Not because we don't get the required points from Man U, Chelsea and Spurs in the final three games,  If we'd have won two of those five horrific games, like we should have, then the tone in here would be very different.

Agreed which is a rounded view of the season as a whole. Some of those results you speak from last season were mostly before the injuries kicked in. Albeit it's been forgotten that there was no Wilf in January and Vardy had to have another break in the same period. It's roughly then when it went south.

 

However if we are asking the question why did we let the points lead slip? Injuries hit at the wrong time last season. 

[nnfox]

47 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Agreed which is a rounded view of the season as a whole. Some of those results you speak from last season were mostly before the injuries kicked in. Albeit it's been forgotten that there was no Wilf in January and Vardy had to have another break in the same period. It's roughly then when it went south.

 

However if we are asking the question why did we let the points lead slip? Injuries hit at the wrong time last season. 

I agree that we lost points last season due to injuries and the squad not being in great shape.  It might not actually be fair to label us as bottlers.  Sure, the pressure was on at the end of last season, and the pressure is on again now, but the squad is in better shape - not perfect by any stretch - but better than last year.  The pressure we find ourselves under is almost completely of our own doing though.  If you want to finish in the top four then you have to be relentless in the pursuit of victory.  You cannot take your foot off the gas and I just think that we did that too often this season.  Nobody really minded dropping points whilst the other 'top' teams were dropping points, but it matters now that they are finding form.

 

We've put ourselves under pressure by not performing when there was no pressure.

[Les-TA-Jon]

5 hours ago, Pliskin said:

Where I don’t disagree with your point, we have to start asking questions why we’ve (if it happens) have chucked in the top four twice in a row when we’ve been pretty much ever present in the top four for two seasons...... last season there were literally no excuses, we were losing to absolute fodder. At some point the mentality has to be questioned, the club are ambitious and want to sniff the balls of the “top clubs” but, at the moment we seem unable to rise to the occasions. 
 

Lose the cup semi final, and I think it’s pretty much confirmed we can’t handle big occasions. 

Well that's the central question of perspective isn't it?

 

If we finish 5th or 6th again this season, have we 'bottled' it 2 years in a row?

 

Or have we finished top 6 two years in a row, when we've only ever had one previous top 6 finish (which itself was a freak title win)?

 

Maybe it's a bit of a cop out - but for me, it's obviously both. But I don't think slipping out of the top 4 in the final quarter of a season should be considered some sort of failure or 'bottle job' (whatever that particular phrase actually means...). 

 

The table doesn't lie and it's just a natural regression to the mean. I don't think anyone seriously thinks we've got a better squad (on paper) than Man U, Chelsea etc. Last season in particular, BR and his squad were victims of their own success, they started well, had that run of 8 wins in a row and then fell away a bit, to just miss out on the final day. Had that timeline been flipped, everyone would have been ecstatic with us finishing 5th. 

 

We are an incredibly ambitious and well run club. Our recruitment is better and smarter than most - but let's not forget that we are attempting something completely unprecedented in the PL era: trying to break into the top 6, without spending billions. 

 

Quote

last season there were literally no excuses

Well, we had key injuries to players like Maddison, Chilwell and Ndidi that forced some weird formations and lineups. Bennett and Thomas in the starting 11. The initial lockdown came at a bad time for us, halting our new momentum, meanwhile Spurs had players like Kane come back from injury and Man U, having signed a £65m player in January, went on a run of title-winning form. 

 

Even all of that aside, we were still a non-establishing midtable side, with a team of young, promising but inconsistent players, punching above our weight. 

 

Quote

 

At some point the mentality has to be questioned, the club are ambitious and want to sniff the balls of the “top clubs” but, at the moment we seem unable to rise to the occasions. 
 

Lose the cup semi final, and I think it’s pretty much confirmed we can’t handle big occasions. 

 

But isn't that, by definition, true of everyone outside the big 6 (and even includes the likes of Arsenal and Spurs)? There's only 1 or 2 teams at any given time who have the resources or long term form to be consistent and to 'handle big occassions'. It could just simply be that we're a good team, with some promising young players, but 5th-7th is our level. 

 

[LVFox]

4 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

If we finish 5th or 6th again this season, have we 'bottled' it 2 years in a row?

 

Or have we finished top 6 two years in a row, when we've only ever had one previous top 6 finish (which itself was a freak title win)?

 

Maybe it's a bit of a cop out - but for me, it's obviously both. But I don't think slipping out of the top 4 in the final quarter of a season should be considered some sort of failure or 'bottle job' (whatever that particular phrase actually means...). 

 

The table doesn't lie and it's just a natural regression to the mean. I don't think anyone seriously thinks we've got a better squad (on paper) than Man U, Chelsea etc. Last season in particular, BR and his squad were victims of their own success, they started well, had that run of 8 wins in a row and then fell away a bit, to just miss out on the final day. Had that timeline been flipped, everyone would have been ecstatic with us finishing 5th. 

 

We are an incredibly ambitious and well run club. Our recruitment is better and smarter than most - but let's not forget that we are attempting something completely unprecedented in the PL era: trying to break into the top 6, without spending billions. 

The most sense I've seen written about Leicester City.

 

If we finish 5th or 6th, it's because we don't deserve to finish any higher, even if we have been top 4 all season until then, part of a league campaign is seeing it through at the end and grinding results out when you have to.

 

It will point to the fact that a) we are running close to full pelt - teams like Chelsea and Liverpool can afford terrible spells and still have the quality to show title winning form during the season to get back to the top 4, we can't do that. 

 

As tense as it is, we have to enjoy these seasons, because regression to the mean will eventually end up with us being 7th to 12th most seasons. Challenging for top 4 is a great season, even if that ends in 5th place.

 

At the start of every season, this club should be looking at getting into any European competition, whether that be through league or cup. If we do that, then it's reason to celebrate. Champions League would be an incredible achievement.

[Rigga]

Suppose it depends how you look at it...

 

I see it as we were the 2nd/3rd best team for the majority of the season only to finish 5th etc in the end.. to do that 2 years running (really hope it doesn’t happen) I’d say bottlejobs yep as when the going really got tough we were found wanting..

[Ric Flair]

22 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Well that's the central question of perspective isn't it?

 

If we finish 5th or 6th again this season, have we 'bottled' it 2 years in a row?

 

Or have we finished top 6 two years in a row, when we've only ever had one previous top 6 finish (which itself was a freak title win)?

 

Maybe it's a bit of a cop out - but for me, it's obviously both. But I don't think slipping out of the top 4 in the final quarter of a season should be considered some sort of failure or 'bottle job' (whatever that particular phrase actually means...). 

 

The table doesn't lie and it's just a natural regression to the mean. I don't think anyone seriously thinks we've got a better squad (on paper) than Man U, Chelsea etc. Last season in particular, BR and his squad were victims of their own success, they started well, had that run of 8 wins in a row and then fell away a bit, to just miss out on the final day. Had that timeline been flipped, everyone would have been ecstatic with us finishing 5th. 

 

We are an incredibly ambitious and well run club. Our recruitment is better and smarter than most - but let's not forget that we are attempting something completely unprecedented in the PL era: trying to break into the top 6, without spending billions. 

 

Well, we had key injuries to players like Maddison, Chilwell and Ndidi that forced some weird formations and lineups. Bennett and Thomas in the starting 11. The initial lockdown came at a bad time for us, halting our new momentum, meanwhile Spurs had players like Kane come back from injury and Man U, having signed a £65m player in January, went on a run of title-winning form. 

 

Even all of that aside, we were still a non-establishing midtable side, with a team of young, promising but inconsistent players, punching above our weight. 

 

But isn't that, by definition, true of everyone outside the big 6 (and even includes the likes of Arsenal and Spurs)? There's only 1 or 2 teams at any given time who have the resources or long term form to be consistent and to 'handle big occassions'. It could just simply be that we're a good team, with some promising young players, but 5th-7th is our level. 

 

Sadly due to last season, slipping out this season will carry that narrative which is unfair but when has opinion from none affiliated masses ever been fair and sound?

 

This season has always been a more competitive league and yet we've been top 4 all the way but with very little margin for error and that error might have landed and yet past indiscretions will hang over us but we should use that to our advantage and let everyone dismiss us and then prove them wrong like this great club has revelled in so much over the years.

 

This is where I want to see the leaders in Schmeichel, Vardy, Evans, Albrighton, Tielemans etc. Step up and finish this success story. 

[hackneyfox]

10 minutes ago, Rigga said:

Suppose it depends how you look at it...

 

I see it as we were the 2nd/3rd best team for the majority of the season only to finish 5th etc in the end.. to do that 2 years running (really hope it doesn’t happen) I’d say bottlejobs yep as when the going really got tough we were found wanting..

Both seasons will have ended with a particualrly hard run of games, had those games been spread more evenly throughout the season then perhaps we'd have been averaging 4th/5th and not 2nd and iot then wouldn't give people the excuse to trot out bottlejob description.

 

If it wasn't for Rodgers previous failure at Liverpool then the term wouldn't be applied to us, everyone would have praising him for having taken a team from 9th to two top 6 finishes and an FA Cup Semi-Final (and perhaps more).

[Rigga]

We applied it to Spurs who were nowhere near winning the title... were they ever too ?

[Fox92]

Just now, Rigga said:

We applied it to Spurs who were nowhere near winning the title... were they ever too ?

No. They didn't bottle anything, they were never top. They never fell away from anything really.

 

Also not everybody did/does so "we" is harsh in your post.

Edited 14 April 2021 by Fox92

[LVFox]

30 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

This is where I want to see the leaders in Schmeichel, Vardy, Evans, Albrighton, Tielemans etc. Step up and finish this success story. 

And this is where the major question mark for this team is....are they leaders?

There's a difference between being vocal (Kasper), or being experienced (Vardy, Evans, Albrighton) to being a leader and a winner.

[urban fox]

7 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

Both seasons will have ended with a particualrly hard run of games, had those games been spread more evenly throughout the season then perhaps we'd have been averaging 4th/5th and not 2nd and iot then wouldn't give people the excuse to trot out bottlejob description.

 

If it wasn't for Rodgers previous failure at Liverpool then the term wouldn't be applied to us, everyone would have praising him for having taken a team from 9th to two top 6 finishes and an FA Cup Semi-Final (and perhaps more).

exactly this. we should be proud of where we are but not forget that we have a very hard run in compared to some of the teams around us with five of our last nine games (thats a quarter of a season) against teams who are challenging for top 4/6. Of course we have taken points from all of our rivals this year except WHU and that is an achievement in itself. 

There will be more twists and turns before this campaign ends with points gained/lost where we least expect it. some weeks results will go for us, others against. that is football in the most competitive league in the world. Anyone can get a result against against anyone else on the day. You play the team that is in front of you, and not whoever is coming up next week or the one after that, one game at a time.

CL would be a fantastic achievement, but two successive seasons with a top 6 finish and a semi final represents our best and most consistent form ever

[UpTheLeagueFox]

[Mythyaar]

We are currently a shade of odds on to make the top 4 with the bookies, so still more rather than less likely to make it, if you trust their oddsmakers.

 

Chelsea and Liverpool are similarly priced and West Ham are the outsiders of the party at 2s. So right now, we are considered to be twice more likely than the Hammers to make the top 4. Of course, we could both bomb out and LFC and Chelsea take the places. Let's hope the multiple cup distractions continue for Chelsea. 

 

At a similar stage last season we were 1/6 to make top 4, so it's is a much tighter affair this time round.

 

 

 

 

 

[foxinsocks]

29 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

but there wil be error bars on those final points tallies - 4 teams within a point for two slots.  

Edited 14 April 2021 by foxinsocks

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, LVocey said:

And this is where the major question mark for this team is....are they leaders?

There's a difference between being vocal (Kasper), or being experienced (Vardy, Evans, Albrighton) to being a leader and a winner.

Who were the leaders when we won it? 

[filbertway]

4 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

The permutations to this season and us potentially getting top 4 is essentially only likely if we win these next 4 games, or at least get 10 points and then 4-6 in the remaining 3 games.

 

This end to the season was never going to be easy, it's never been a huge margin to 5th like it was last season as a) we have been decent throughout the season without being exceptional like that 8 game winning run last season and b) the chasing pack haven't been quite as bad as last season even though its seemed like they have due to Liverpools troubles and Spurs and Arsenal continuing to be the pits.

 

Chelsea though have quickly recovered from their early winter slump and we've done incredibly well to remain in the top 3 all this time given our injuries, haggling various competitions and zero signings in January. 

 

We cannot let this define us, we still have a huge opportunity to be successful this season and its not so much the league position that I'll measure this on but the points total. We got 62 last season and finished 5th, we could get 72 this season and still finish 5th and it feels like we will at the least need to get to 69-70 to stand a chance of staying in the top 4.

 

But I'm not downbeat, we've lost 2 tough games and our form has dropped off a bit in the last 10-12 games but not anywhere near the nosedive that we are tarring ourselves with from last season and that's the bottom line.

 

We need to regroup, focus and finish the job in the league and Cup this season. I'm proud of this group, however much they frustrate me at times. We are bloody special, take that for granted if you want but we'll look back fondly on this era and I just hope we have something to properly appreciate as I know there's fans who don't regard what we are doing as anything other than par for the course. Rubbish.

 

Win these next 5 Cup and league games and let those around us and ahead of us worry about the final 3-4 fixtures as I'm telling you now, if we do win these next batch of games then we will be a nightmare to deal with and I'll fcukin love it.

100% with you. There's absolutely nothing to stop us winning the next 5. 4 wins and draw away to saints would even be acceptable.

 

I will be grabbing the torches if we don't pick up at least 10 points in those 4 games though, that would be criminal! haha

[Hollyfox]

Maybe Liverpool (hate to say it) get through v Madrid tonight and then them and Chelsea kick the sh%t out of each other during the 2 CL semi games. 

 

Might affect their league form?? 

[FoxesWalk]