2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[foxinsocks]

3 minutes ago, STUHILL said:

A Big Sam team who doesn't have to win, and is happy with a battling 0-0 against a top 4 side, is a very dangerous thing IMO. Burnley could be the same. These are the teams that are sometimes the toughest to beat, when you really need that win but are up against 11 men behind the ball! Chelsea will be nervy too, especially if they concede first in either 

Chris wood will win it for us

[John12345]

10 hours ago, st albans fox said:

If you’re praying then go the whole hog and ask for all three games. He can have the CL final .....

 

NG has a pain issue from an Achilles problem. Perhaps he can’t play both our games. Will be interesting to see which one he doesn’t if that’s the case ...

I don't like to think of NG in pain. Probably the best human being in world football as well as the best midf.

[Guest Bert Fill]

1 minute ago, John12345 said:

I don't like to think of NG in pain. Probably the best human being in world football as well as the best midf.

Absolutely. Ngolo is a top bloke.

 

I hope he wakes up on Wednesday morning with the injury that has kept him out of action for a couple of games completely healed...

[Gerard]

Just now, Bert Fill said:

Absolutely. Ngolo is a top bloke.

 

I hope he wakes up on Wednesday morning with the injury that has kept him out of action for a couple of games completely healed...

 

After that horrendous own goal that led to the incident when three of his teammates got sent off.

[ARM1968]

Doesn’t get any more straightforward. Beat Chelsea and we’re in. How simple is that. 

[Pliskin]

Isn’t KDH back? Secret weapon..... 

[CosbehFox]

I’m quite content if we get a win out of the two and we fail. Points wise it’s a good improvement and we’ve pushed it very close.
 

We realistically need a bit of help, let’s hope it comes from somewhere 

[Finn Claw II]

Posted in the wrong thread!  We have lots of paths to the CL

 

1. Best Chelsea

 

2. Draw to Chelsea and beat Spurs (or Chelsea not to win the last game)

 

3 lose to Chelsea, beat Spurs and Liverpool to draw one of their games.

 

4 lose to Chelsea, draw to Spurs and Liverpool to lose one of their games

 

5 Lose both and Liverpool to slip up twice,

 

We are in a very good position, it could be better but I don’t see how Liverpool are favourites for CL

Edited 14 May 2021 by Finn Claw II

[ARM1968]

6 minutes ago, Finn Claw II said:

Posted in the wrong thread!  We have lots of paths to the CL

 

1. Best Chelsea

 

2. Draw to Chelsea and beat Spurs (or Chelsea not to win the last game)

 

3 lose to Chelsea, beat Spurs and Liverpool to draw one of their games.

 

4 lose to Chelsea, draw to Spurs and Liverpool to lose one of their games

 

5 Lose both and Liverpool to slip up twice,

 

We are in a very good position, it could be better but I don’t see how Liverpool are favourites for CL

It is certainly in our hands and better that than any other way. It’s just what we have in our hands is a live grenade with the pin out and we’re trying to stick it back in. Difficult but not impossible. 

[lcfcfoz]

2 hours ago, ARM1968 said:

Doesn’t get any more straightforward. Beat Chelsea and we’re in. How simple is that. 

0-1 Vardy 88

Edited 14 May 2021 by lcfcfoz

[oxtonfox]

Don’t lose at Chelsea on Tuesday and we’ll be alright. Unfortunately they will need to beat us which will make it tough.

All of this assumes Liverpool win all three remaining games: which they probably will. 

[oxtonfox]

1 hour ago, Finn Claw II said:

Posted in the wrong thread!  We have lots of paths to the CL

 

1. Best Chelsea

 

2. Draw to Chelsea and beat Spurs (or Chelsea not to win the last game)

 

3 lose to Chelsea, beat Spurs and Liverpool to draw one of their games.

 

4 lose to Chelsea, draw to Spurs and Liverpool to lose one of their games

 

5 Lose both and Liverpool to slip up twice,

 

We are in a very good position, it could be better but I don’t see how Liverpool are favourites for CL

Liverpool are the outsiders of three and Chelsea are favourites which is odd because we only need a draw on Tuesday and then match their last game result. 

Exciting end to season isn’t it … 

[deanolegend1989]

15 hours ago, Gerard said:

 

Liverpool looked excellent last night and looked like the machine that got 99pts last season.

 

However they've won just under half their PL games this season, don't discount a toothless performance in one the last three games. Failure to win the last three probably loses them top four and I would make them a 50/50 shot at best to win their remaining games.

 

Chelsea are in a similar boat, lose to us and it's over for them as far as we care anyway. Even if they beat us they still have to go to Jack Grealish's Villa away and win to guarantee it.

 

We're the ones who can afford a slip, even if Liverpool win their next two and we lose to Chelsea the table looks like this on the final day (assuming all wins by one goal).

 

Chelsea 67 +23

Liverpool 66 +22

--------------------

Leicester 66 +20

 

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Leicester vs Tottenham

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

 

And that's worst case scenario for us when the last three matches have all gone against us.

In this scenario though, I make us about 10% to qualify. And the ‘worst case’ scenario you said, is more like ‘a very likely scenario’.

 

I know it’s sounding like I’m extremely negative but I’m trying to be realistic and I think that win at Old Trafford for Liverpool is a huge nail for us.

I have a small ray of hope in 2 scenarios -

Possibly that somehow Burnley get something off Pool.

Possibly that we can draw Chelsea.

 

The problem is with both of the above scenarios to happen would be pretty fortunate AND it would still require us to beat Spurs as well.

I just feel it will be a case of ‘we nearly did it and we are all hero’s’ but without anything to show for it.

[deanolegend1989]

14 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

A lucky win? We had 3 other great chances. The 2nd half performances was much better and I hope it kick starts us again even briefly for a couple of games to get us over the line.

We played better 2nd half and pinned them in but we knicked it from a set piece in the end. It was far from convincing but who cares we won.

However it doesn’t fill me with hope that we can challenge a hugely stronger team in 2 ‘cup finals’ that matter. A half hearted weak Man Utd team isn’t in the same planet in comparison.

The optimism suggests we can win, the reality suggests it will take something special that we havnt shown for a good few months.

[Aus Fox]

Picture the scene... Leicester win the FA Cup, then lose the next game away at Chelsea.

We go into the last game of the season...

 

Chelsea 67 points +23 gd

Liverpool 66 points + 22 gd

Leicester 66 points + 20 gd

 

Chelsea get a routine 2 - 0 win at Villa, and the final whistle blows at the King Power Stadium Leicester 2 - 2 Spurs, after going 2 - 0 down,  spirited fight back gets us a late point. It’s still goalless at Anfield - 5 minutes of the advertised 4 minutes of stoppage time has been played and it looks all over for the Foxes again... suddenly Zaha slips through Sir Jeffrey Schlupp who calmly rounds Alisson and rolls the ball in an empty net. Despite protests from Liverpool players and supporters replays show Andy Robertson’s left sleeve is playing him onside. 
 

Pandemonium at the King Power as news filters through of what’s happening in Liverpool - As the Beatles famously sang - All you need is Schluup.

[Gerard]

4 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

In this scenario though, I make us about 10% to qualify. And the ‘worst case’ scenario you said, is more like ‘a very likely scenario’.

 

I know it’s sounding like I’m extremely negative but I’m trying to be realistic and I think that win at Old Trafford for Liverpool is a huge nail for us.

I have a small ray of hope in 2 scenarios -

Possibly that somehow Burnley get something off Pool.

Possibly that we can draw Chelsea.

 

The problem is with both of the above scenarios to happen would be pretty fortunate AND it would still require us to beat Spurs as well.

I just feel it will be a case of ‘we nearly did it and we are all hero’s’ but without anything to show for it.

 

Liverpool winning at Man Utd was certainly a hammer blow for us, no question about that but we still have outs and we're still 2nd favourites out of the three to get a top four spot but the betting is that tight there isn't a lot in it. One from three will miss out so no reason to suggest it will definetely be us.

 

We just need one or two results out of six games to fall our way and we'll be home.

[deanolegend1989]

11 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Liverpool winning at Man Utd was certainly a hammer blow for us, no question about that but we still have outs and we're still 2nd favourites out of the three to get a top four spot but the betting is that tight there isn't a lot in it. One from three will miss out so no reason to suggest it will definetely be us.

 

We just need one or two results out of six games to fall our way and we'll be home.

Like the way you say we have outs lol. You a poker player by any chance?

 

I agree though the bookies have it super super close. I really feel Stamford Bridge Tuesday will be the occasion for us to do it if we are to. I really can’t see us dropping but Liverpool dropping more.

[Rsswmu]

By the time we play Tuesday we could be in a much better position. We have lots of outs, Liverpool needs to play perfect. They have looked to be turning a corner 4 or 5 times this year and then they fall apart.  Very much doubt they go undefeated. Pressure and little rest will get to them. 

[trabuch]

44 minutes ago, Rsswmu said:

By the time we play Tuesday we could be in a much better position. We have lots of outs, Liverpool needs to play perfect. They have looked to be turning a corner 4 or 5 times this year and then they fall apart.  Very much doubt they go undefeated. Pressure and little rest will get to them. 

Loads of pressure on them.

[Deeg67]

1 hour ago, trabuch said:

Loads of pressure on them.

Not really.  They've checked pretty much all the boxes over the last few seasons and are one of the richest clubs in the world.  If they don't make it this season they know they're under no long-term threat of backsliding based on financial commitment.

[Rsswmu]

24 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

Not really.  They've checked pretty much all the boxes over the last few seasons and are one of the richest clubs in the world.  If they don't make it this season they know they're under no long-term threat of backsliding based on financial commitment.

John Henry will not be playing. Pretty sure the players want to play cl football they do not care about the long term financial impacts of making it. 

[Deeg67]

2 hours ago, Rsswmu said:

John Henry will not be playing. Pretty sure the players want to play cl football they do not care about the long term financial impacts of making it. 

Sure, they want to.  They've also won everything they've set out to do at some point over the last few seasons and know the future of their club isn't riding on making it.  That would be real pressure (and it is, that's obvious).

[KingsX]

Three clubs for two spots.  In fivethirtyeight's reckoning it is dead even.

 

 

We need to beat Chelsea, or draw and beat Spurs, else we’ll need the others to drop points.

[Wolfox]

2 hours ago, KingsX said:

Three clubs for two spots.  In fivethirtyeight's reckoning it is dead even.

 

 

We need to beat Chelsea, or draw and beat Spurs, else we’ll need the others to drop points.

Not any more…. We are 3rd favourites

 

 

 

 

[Steve Earle]

4 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

Not any more…. We are 3rd favourites

 

 

 

 

Might be third favourites this moment, but any winner in our game on Tuesday becomes a strong favourite. A draw for us would also be huge.