Anyone think we are not in serious trouble ? Bookies are rarely wrong

[AYLESBURY FOX 1961]

On sky bet they will only give you 100/30 on us getting relegated - oxford are considered certainties for the drop - not from what i can see from Saturdays showing. Bloody hell  even norwich and west brom are 7/1

[Flappit]

Bookies respond to bets being placed, they are not fortune tellers.

[Collymore]

I'd imagine we're about 1/5 then not to be relegated which is highly likely so not sure of the point of the post. 

 

Also I don't believe it's a common thought where people don't think it's a possibility.

 

It's been pretty much mentioned on here for months that it could happen. 

[Vowels]

Yeah, I remember bookies didn't give odds of 5000/1 against us winning the PL.

[RoboFox]

Not sure we really need the help of gambling companies to tell us how much shit we’re in as a club.

[Ashley]

3 minutes ago, Vowels said:

Yeah, I remember bookies didn't give odds of 5000/1 against us winning the PL.

Which was a short time offer too. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

• The average points for teams finishing 21st over the last 21 seasons is 48.2 points. 
• We're on 38 points.
• Averaging 1.3 points per game, trending to finish on 60 points.
• Target 50 points = safety
• 12 points required + maybe 9 max to account for a deduction? A target of 59 points, out of 17 games / 51 points remaining. 
• So maintaining current form + a 9 points deduction means we're just about OK, but we're on thin ice!

Any sort of downturn in form, a bigger deduction, or one team down there having a great escape and we could go down. 

 

Of the teams down there: 

• vs Norwich 3/3 points
• vs Charlton 3/3 points
• vs West Brom 4/6 points
• vs Portsmouth 1/3 points
• vs Blackburn 0/3 points
• vs Oxford 1/6 points
• vs Sheff Weds 3/3 points

So Charlton (H), Norwich (H), Sheffield Weds (A), Portsmouth (A) and Blackburn (A) (on the final day!) are pretty crucial

[Stadt]

Famously the bookies have never been wrong about Leicester. Even discounting 15/16 - I bet we were 20/1(?) to go down in 22/23

[Tuna]

Yet another ludicrous, hysterical thread.

[Wolfox]

2 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Yet another ludicrous, hysterical thread.

And how does differ from every other thread on here exactly? 😂 

[Tuna]

41 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

And how does differ from every other thread on here exactly? 😂 

That's the point, every thought needs to be an attention seeking new thread these days.

[purpleronnie]

1 hour ago, Flappit said:

Bookies respond to bets being placed, 

Only slightly, its much more detailed than that, data modelling, they also will balance the market in their favour.

[Qwerty]

It's impossible to predict until we know the points deduction. 

[Foxmeister]

1 hour ago, Ashley said:

Which was a short time offer too. 

Damn right, it’s amazing how everyone who claims to have bet on it did so with the same bookies in the same week.

[hinkfox21]

People who say they are not worried must be putting their head in the sand. The amount of money going out of the club. Owners who don't care. Players who don't care. Point deduction in coming. Going down to league 1 incoming.

[adejo92]

We're bad, and i am the first to slag off performances, but I really dont think we would get relegated,  even if Marti didnt get sacked.

[Ian S]

1 hour ago, adejo92 said:

We're bad, and i am the first to slag off performances, but I really dont think we would get relegated,  even if Marti didnt get sacked.

We will revisit this in May as I am at the opposite end of the spectrum, we are going down.This time next week it is quite conceivable we will be bottom 3 and our load of losers won’t get us out of trouble.

[Bezzanator89]

It's like 10 years ago with the 5000/1 odds of winning the Premier League. Never crossed anyone's minds that we would defy those odds, but we did. Odds mean precious little other being a half-arsed indicator.

 

We could very well go down, and watch those odds shift if we get the PSR points deduction sooner rather than later.

[Dan]

Massively regret not putting loads on at 20/1.

[Gamble92]

So bookies don't think we'll go down then. Glad we cleared that up.

[JonnyBoy]

lumped on at 14/1 then again at 11/1 

[Aleksz]

I'd have said we'll win too many games to be in too much trouble up until 3/4 weeks ago, but we have lost to some serious shite. Lets just hope we get a new manager bounce.

 

(P.S I Know we've been here before with the whole too good to go down thing, fully aware)

[Ian S]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

Massively regret not putting loads on at 20/1.

Got 22/1 ,14/1 and 11/1 but only small bets.

[Poznan34]

5 hours ago, Flappit said:

Bookies respond to bets being placed, they are not fortune tellers.

What would you say our chance of relegation is? They aren't going to be far off, if they put out the wrong price, people will bet and the price will move 

[Winstonthedog]

5 hours ago, Flappit said:

Bookies respond to bets being placed, they are not fortune tellers.

I'm not a fortune teller .... but I can predict we are in the sh1t and a team full of players who couldn't fight their way out of a Pukka pie