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jonthefox

The "do they mean us?" thread

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I'm not surprised Waddle thinks we will finish 3rd. He also suggested Vardy could not go to the Euros. Danny Gabbidon laughed at him saying it was ridiculous. Waddle was IMO too cowardly to state it as his own opinion, instead he had to pretend it's what Roy would think.

He's an ex Spurs player so I don't even care.

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I'm sure everyone is very much aware it's mathematically possible, but for them to win it not only do we have to show form we've not shown for a year, Spurs have to show form they haven't shown all season and Arsenal need to do something they haven't done for some time. Their form is shocking at the moment, in their last 16 games in all competitions they have won just 5 games... and two of them were against Championship teams.

 

But it's more than mathematically possible, it's about a 15% chance.

 

Southampton, Liverpool & Stoke are mathematically possible but highly unlikely.

 

I don't care about Arsenal's recent form they have proved year after year that they are one of the best sides in the country and they're more than capable of winning all or most of their games they have left especially as they have no other competition to worry about other than the league. Their five home games left are:

 

Watford

Crystal Palace

West Brom

Norwich

Aston Villa

 

They won't be happy with less than maximum points against that lot. They're the least likely winners out of the three of us but they're still very much in this race.

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But it's more than mathematically possible, it's about a 15% chance.

 

Southampton, Liverpool & Stoke are mathematically possible but highly unlikely.

 

I don't care about Arsenal's recent form they have proved year after year that they are one of the best sides in the country and they're more than capable of winning all or most of their games they have left especially as they have no other competition to worry about other than the league. Their five home games left are:

 

Watford

Crystal Palace

West Brom

Norwich

Aston Villa

 

They won't be happy with less than maximum points against that lot. They're the least likely winners out of the three of us but they're still very much in this race.

 

1) Like a maths exam, care to show your workings to come to 15%?

 

2) Yes, year after year, Arsenal have consistently shown that they are a great team but only between August and February/March, at which point they give up once they know they've made top 4. Jose was right about them, they're bottlers.

Edited by Darkon84
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:banghead:

Most managers don't inherit a side that Nigel Pearson/Craig Shakespeare/Steve Walsh etc. spent years building, can the lesson from our season please not be that all managers should be able to walk into any job and make a squad brilliant instantly, you have to inherit a strong side to do that and most managers don't.

 

The question is whether that is because clubs appoint managers with different philosophies who shake everything up each time, instead of thinking longer term and appointing managers with the philosophy they want to purse.  See Southampton, and rather unexpectedly, us!!

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1) Like a maths exam, care to show your workings to come to 15%?

 

2) Yes, year after year, Arsenal have consistently shown that they are a great team but only between August and February/March, at which point they give up once they know they've made top 4. Jose was right about them, they're bottlers.

 

Look at the betting odds on a 100.5% book.

 

There odds are 6.6 to back and 6.8 to lay which equate to about 15%.

 

These odds are a derivative of each team's expected prices between now and the end of the season and are worked out by professional gamblers who more times than not are mathematicians and have mathematical models to work out the price.

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148

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Arsenal have shown on their day they can beat anyone, they have also shown how inconsistent they are and how often they drop points when they really shouldn't.

They also have to constantly re-jig as their players are made of glass. In midfield they have, Cazorla, Ramsey, Flamini, Oxlade Chamberlain, Wilshere and Rosicky all out for the next game as well as Cech. A few of these are close to a return but then Wenger has further problems in how to get golden boys Ramsey and Wilshere back in the team and up to match fitness without unsettling things.

They still have key players massively under performing, Walcott, Sanchez, Giroud and uncertainty at the back as to their best defensive pairing.

Nobody is disputing Arsenal at their best are a fantastic team, anyone who saw them at the KP this season will have been impressed, but there is nothing to suggest that are suddenly going to turn around an awful run of form and win 8 out of 8.

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I can see them winning at least six but I'm not worried about them with an 11 point gap as things stand.

 

A loss for us tomorrow and another win for Spurs and it really does get squeaky bum time.

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Look at the betting odds on a 100.5% book.

 

There odds are 6.6 to back and 6.8 to lay which equate to about 15%.

 

These odds are a derivative of each team's expected prices between now and the end of the season and are worked out by professional gamblers who more times than not are mathematicians and have mathematical models to work out the price.

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148

 

lol I was only joking with the part about the maths, but fair play to you there, good arrows! :thumbup:

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But it's more than mathematically possible, it's about a 15% chance.

More than mathematically possible? lol  WTF does that even mean. It's either mathematically possible or it's not.

 

 

Southampton, Liverpool & Stoke are mathematically possible but highly unlikely.

And what have they got to do with anything? If you want to discuss chance then clearly Arsenal have got more chance than them

 

I don't care about Arsenal's recent form they have proved year after year that they are one of the best sides in the country and they're more than capable of winning all or most of their games they have left especially as they have no other competition to worry about other than the league.

So you don't care about recent form, but you care about form over time... a time in which they haven't won the league. They were "more than capable" of winning loads of their other games as well, but they didn't. 

 

 

Their five home games left are:

 

Watford

Crystal Palace

West Brom

Norwich

Aston Villa

 

They won't be happy with less than maximum points against that lot. They're the least likely winners out of the three of us but they're still very much in this race.

"They won't be happy with less than maximum" and? I'd imagine they weren't happy with losing 6 and drawing 5 of their last 16, but that happened.

 

I didn't say they weren't "in it", but it's going to take three swings in form for it to happen. They have almost no margin for error, if they won 7 and drew 1 , it would mean we'd still be level on points with a record of 3W 2D 2L.

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