Brexit - Has anybody actually changed their minds?

[Guest MattP]

Just now, rachhere said:

It is scary. I work with a lot of voluntary sector organisations and they are falling apart due to a lack of income... I can't begin to imagine how they will survive if we experience another recession. 

 

I would be interested to know how make people would be swayed to remain if Brussels were to turn round and say 'we have heard the UK people, we recognise your discontent and also that visible in other EU nations, we will commit to listen to you and to reform'.

I think I'd explode with laughter if I heard that from a leader of the European Union, sfter what has gone on over the last few years I doubt anybody would believe them. There is only one plan inside the European Commission and that's more integration, the talk of a European Army is now quite open since we have voted to leave.

 

Even the Italians elect an anti-EU government and the answer from Brussels is to try and control their budget and inflict even more austerity onto them.

[TiffToff88]

I voted remain and would do so again in a second referendum.

 

I had accepted at the time that we would be leaving, but considering that the majority of the leave campaign was based on lies and false promises, i thought there would be at least some leavers who would have considered changing their minds.

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, TiffToff88 said:

I voted remain and would do so again in a second referendum.

 

I had accepted at the time that we would be leaving, but considering that the majority of the leave campaign was based on lies and false promises, i thought there would be at least some leavers who would have considered changing their minds.

Why would they when the Remain side was just as untruthful? Emergency budget, 300,000 job losses in the immediate aftermath of the vote, Touquet agreement torn up, the idea of a European Army being a dangerous fantasy....

In hindsight the biggest lie of the referendum was a lot of the Remainers telling us they would respect the result of it.

[Alf Bentley]

My opinion was fluid before the referendum, but has become more entrenched since.

 

I was 50-50 until about a week before the vote. I'd always been pro-EU, felt the EU had done a lot of good for our nation and continent, and had always seen a need for more international decision-making as life, particularly the economy, became more global. However, I didn't like various aspects of the EU over recent years: austerity politics, high unemployment, lack of democratic connection, over-restrictive economic rules (deficit < 1.5% of GDP etc.) and undemocratic intervention in Greece.

 

I voted Remain despite those criticisms because I thought there was a better chance of the EU remedying its failings than there was of Brexit producing the sort of country I want to live in (especially as implemented by the Tories).

 

Since the referendum, the EU economy has improved slightly, but most of the problems listed persist. The EU seems to be treading water and firefighting, though not yet going backwards into crisis (wouldn't rule it out, though).

 

What has entrenched my support for Remain is not an improved opinion of the EU but greater concern about what Brexit might mean. Not only have the UK's negotiations and preparations for post-Brexit life been more shambolic than I expected, the demands for a remoter EU/UK relationship have been stronger than I expected. I assumed there'd be some sort of sensible compromise, keeping us close to the EU while reforming free movement, as I see the whole "Global Britain" thing as a massive fantasy - and in some cases a smokescreen. In some ways, May's deal offers that sensible compromise, addressing key Brexiteer grievances but maintaining a close relationship with the EU, but I have a major problem with the democratic risk implicit in the backstop - who knows who might be running EU countries in a few years when we reach that stage? Do we want the likes of LePen potentially deciding our future? If May had just told the DUP they'd have to accept extra checks on trade across the Irish Sea, I might have been OK with her deal (and without the 2017 election, she'd have had that option). It's also clear that most committed Brexiteers will not accept that compromise, but insist on what I see as an extreme form of Brexit....so there's no incentive for a Remainer to compromise as the Brexiteers will clearly carry on fighting for a Harder Brexit if there is a compromise.

 

I struggle to see a good way forward, other than the transformation of the nation so that everyone has decent living standards, income security, a sense of social cohesion etc. That ain't happening any time soon. If there were to be another referendum, I'd definitely vote Remain again - with less doubt than last time - but the prospect doesn't enthuse me, as I'd expect it to arouse a lot of conflict and division that would continue for years, unless some brilliant govt created the utopia described above. Some Norway-type solution might avoid some of that, but some of the division would definitely continue - as it would if May's deal somehow gets passed. My main hope is just to avoid a No Deal meltdown, as I see that as seriously scary.

 

My impression is that very few people have changed their minds - though I think some Leavers have become less sure of their convictions. If there's another referendum, more Leave supporters might stay at home this time and more young people might show up and vote Remain....but on the other hand, I'd expect a fair few Remainers to vote Leave or stay at home out of a misguided desire to get the whole thing over with, or to accept the validity of the 2016 vote. I'd expect it to be close again.

 

Still, real life is good in most ways, the sun is shining, life is still fun and most people can adapt to adversity....   

 

 

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, Arriba Los Zorros said:

Nobody who voted Remain will have changed their minds.

Yes maybe...but I for one ,said ok, now go for it!!!  The Brexiteers and remaine rs,. have been let down by both political parties.

I thought as an expat,there would be a balls up,either way,because they kept talking about negotiating,there was/isn't anything to negotiate.

and believing the other EU members really cared about any of this is just British arrogant Bollox..

mags suggestions and deal,is going to give the UK a worse future potential, because it's an empty box,and carries nothing of what the Brexiteers

Wanted,and worsened the remainder case...It's though The UK government has agreed to punish itself...

 

I believe the Brit-public, no matter what, couldn't give a hoot.They are bored and frustrated,they still haven't been listened to.

next election!! Nobody should turn up...

[Sir Shep]

I voted to leave and I’ll vote to leave again if necessary. The only way I’d vote remain is if the EU agrees to reform itself but I can’t see that happening. A shame really as I appreciate there’s a lot of good that comes out of the EU but not enough to swing me. 

[StanSP]

Voted remain. Would still vote remain. 

We know more than we did back then and for me, most things point towards being better in than being worse off if we were out. 

 

One thing that is for sure, is that in the two years since the referendum, we've possibly had the worst politicians (in my lifetime) at the helm that are in charge of this whole debacle. On all sides. 

 

I'm not sure how many times I could keep hearing May and her minions continue to say 'get a better deal' or 'get on with it' before losing my mind. What the fvck have they been doing for 2 years? Even they've underestimated the volume of work and negotiations that were required from the start. Now they need to get everything over the line and so they're all rushing around like maniacs. It's an absolute farce. 

 

The other worrying thing, from my point of view, is that if May goes or Tories lose power, I cannot think of anyone who would be fit to replace her. 

 

Because we know more than we did back then (I don't see how anyone can claim otherwise) about what the vote means, I am for a People's Vote but can fully understand why it won't be a realistic or viable option. The only hope now is that someone revokes Article 50. If that doesn't happen, what else can anyone out of power do? 

[WilmslowFox]

I can believe that there has been relatively little movement from entrenched remain and leave voters, but more interesting are the 28% of the electorate that did not feel strongly enough to cast a vote one way or the other.  I would suggest that the subsequent chaos might lead to some previously uncommitted voters casting their ballot for remain.

[Xen]

Myself and the majority of my friends voted remain, and everyone I've spoken to is holding true to that.

 

My initial reason for voting remain was that it felt like the safer option - the Leave campaign was notably vague and I wasn't sure what I would have been voting for if I chose that - and I didn't have faith that we would succesfully navigate the leaving process. The last couple of years seem to have vindicated that somewhat, so my position is more pro-Remain than it was initially.

 

My partner on the other hand is a paid-up Tory member, voted Leave and has reiterated that he would still have voted Leave in the referendum even if he knew what he knows now about how it would pan out (and naturally, would do so if a second vote were held). He acknowledges its been a bit of a clusterfvck on all counts since the referendum, though.

[Strokes]

Voted leave, would still vote leave. Unless it was a choice between Mays deal and remain, I wouldn’t vote in that case as the two things are the same.

[AKCJ]

 

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

Why would they when the Remain side was just as untruthful? Emergency budget, 300,000 job losses in the immediate aftermath of the vote, Touquet agreement torn up, the idea of a European Army being a dangerous fantasy....

In hindsight the biggest lie of the referendum was a lot of the Remainers telling us they would respect the result of it.

I think Remainers would have respected the result of a leave vote had leavers told the truth/were correct in assumptions.

 

I think the Leavers would have been the same had the roles been reversed.

 

Fact is both sides lied and manipulated the public to suit agendas.

 

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Voted leave, would still vote leave. Unless it was a choice between Mays deal and remain, I wouldn’t vote in that case as the two things are the same.

Point of order: No they're not. We would no longer be a member of the European Union under May's deal, thus honouring the referendum's result perfectly well.

[Kopfkino]

Didn't vote in the first place but

 

Take me back to 23rd June 2016 knowing everything that's happened since - Leave

Second referendum on Remain-Leave now given where we are at this present moment - Remain/don't vote

Referendum on May's deal v No deal - Deal

 

Ultimately, I'd like a close European relationship/integration on trade/economics (a revised single market) and security/criminal justice (EAW, SIS, Eurojust, Europol and stuff like that) but nothing like the integration approaching the ambitions the EU/France has. But what this has taught me is that as a polity, partly as a result of European integration, we are not capable anymore of not delegating a whole host of stuff to the European level. 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

Voted leave would now remain.

[oadby.fox]

I wouldn't say that I have changed my mind but I would vote differently if another referendum was to be held tomorrow, in that I would prefer to leave if we could do so in an orderly manner and without committing to the demands of Rees-Mogg/Johnson & co. However any kind of sensible brexit now seems to be beyond us, perhaps I was naive in thinking that such a thing was ever possible in the first place! I was also hoping that Labour would usurp power and take us forwards after brexit (something which might still be a possibility).  

 

I was right on the fence in the run up to the vote and ended up voting to leave as I object to the idea of an ever-closer union and because I feel that the EU is a club where the richer north-western states win at the expense of the rest. Freedom of movement again seems to benefit certain states above others and there is an imbalance there as well. I also felt that the EU is so adverse to reform which is a shame because with some changes it could really be great (e.g a democratically elected executive body for a start would be a good).

 

However, it has gradually become clear to me that any benefits we might receive as a result of leaving will be so marginal that the risk just no longer seems worth taking. A vote for brexit in many ways was a vote against the status quo, and a vote for some kind of dramatic change. Whilst it certainly has shaken up politics in this country, it has only done so at the expense of putting other issues to the sidelines. I want the country to get back to dealing with the pressing issues that face our society and brexit has certainly been a huge hinderance in that respect, and will continue to be for many more years (unless the vote were to be overturned). 

 

I would pragmatically and perhaps somewhat begrudgingly now vote remain if given the opportunity to do so. However, there is a lingering worry for me in that the EU seems to be able to prevent member states from leaving by making their exit as uncomfortable as possible and that this is unjust. 

 

If there was to be another referendum then I think it should be either to remain or to accept whatever deal is on the table. The prospect of a no-deal shouldn't even be on the table for me.

Edited 13 December 2018 by oadby.fox

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, WilmslowFox said:

I can believe that there has been relatively little movement from entrenched remain and leave voters, but more interesting are the 28% of the electorate that did not feel strongly enough to cast a vote one way or the other.  I would suggest that the subsequent chaos might lead to some previously uncommitted voters casting their ballot for remain.

The general consensus amongst pollsters and tellers is that those who don't vote are often the most likely to be anti-establishment - one of the reasons Leave won on a huge 72% turnout was because many came out to vote for something for the first time in years.

 

Whether that would be right this time I don't know as I think vast majority would vote the same, but Remain voters would be more enthused to come out having lost the first one - it would certainly be close and I still don't really see how it would solve anything long-term.

 

Ironically, voting for chaos is very European, they often do it in France and Italy.

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, rachhere said:

It is scary. I work with a lot of voluntary sector organisations and they are falling apart due to a lack of income... I can't begin to imagine how they will survive if we experience another recession.

 

I would be interested to know how make people would be swayed to remain if Brussels were to turn round and say 'we have heard the UK people, we recognise your discontent and also that visible in other EU nations, we will commit to listen to you and to reform'. 

 

 

Wouldn't that lack of money be partly due to what we pay into the EU fund who are then supposed to distribute some of it back into voluntary organisations. Under a brexit, it would be the responsibility of our own government to channel money back into the country. 

[yorkie1999]

44 minutes ago, WilmslowFox said:

I can believe that there has been relatively little movement from entrenched remain and leave voters, but more interesting are the 28% of the electorate that did not feel strongly enough to cast a vote one way or the other.  I would suggest that the subsequent chaos might lead to some previously uncommitted voters casting their ballot for remain.

Or the manc lot from moss side and the toxteth trouble causers might come out in force and all vote for brexit.  

[Strokes]

48 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Point of order: No they're not. We would no longer be a member of the European Union under May's deal, thus honouring the referendum's result perfectly well.

Maybe in a legal sense but not morally it isn’t as you’re perfectly aware. It ties us in, indefinitely. So there is no point whatsoever.

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Maybe in a legal sense but not morally it isn’t as you’re perfectly aware. It ties us in, indefinitely. So there is no point whatsoever.

 

As I understand it, there's a risk, in theory at least, of being tied in indefinitely via the backstop....but the declaration on future relations doesn't actually say what will happen long-term. That is yet to be negotiated, and everything from Norway to Canada-type models are possible. Things would mostly stay as they are for the transition period - and we'd stay in the Customs Union if the backstop came into effect, but that's only if no deal has been signed on future relations.

 

The deal states that the UK will leave the Single Market and Customs Union under the deal to be negotiated, doesn't it? So, Hard Brexit supporters just have to find an alternative solution for the Irish border and get a Canada+ deal (which the EU are happy to offer) approved by parliament. Brexiteers have repeatedly told us that they'll be able to finalise the deal on future relations within 2-3 years and that technological solutions will become available to resolve the Irish border issue....

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Maybe in a legal sense but not morally it isn’t as you’re perfectly aware. It ties us in, indefinitely. So there is no point whatsoever.

There was no moral aspect to the referendum though? I took the question on the ballot at face value, and May is now attempting to deliver on the response given to that question.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, but if people wanted something different or more specific then they should have made that clear before they voted for what was on the ballot. The government can only interpret the fact of the result, not the myriad varying reasons why people voted for it.

[Countryfox]

Yes I voted.  But leave or remain means nothing to me now as I can't believe the fookin brown sticky mess we are in ...   too many idiots with their own agenda in positions of power.  Too many lies and half truths being told.  The whole world ..  particularly the major European nations and Russia laughing their socks off at us.   There is no way May has the balls to go back and sort things out so probably best to just ask nicely if we can stay and whimper back into the corner.   Wonder if the federal republic of Europe will make us swear allegiance and hand over a few more billion at a meeting in a railway carriage in France.   Opportunity lost.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Leave/Leave.

[The Guvnor]

I voted leave. This was to take back control of our Laws, Money and Borders, and by definition that would mean being out of the Customs Union and the Single Market.

The problem is this Government have ballsed up any deal which aligns with my vote, hardly surprising really as they never believed in that type of seperation.

 

Labour want to stay in a Custom Union and the Single Market so that's a no from me, so it is extremely difficult to see how my Leave vote can be honoured  unless we just wave goodbye and go to WTO. There doesn't seem to be any real prospect of this happening so I am finding myself completely disenfranchised  with the whole process.

If there was another vote I would still vote to leave but only if there was an option to leave as in WTO conditions, that seems highly unlikely even though I sincerely believe it would not be as bad as some would have you believe.

So have I changed my mind, No do I believe there will be a deal which aligns with my vote  No. So as  I said I am becoming completely disenfranchised with the whole thing.

 

 

[lgfualol]

Voted Remain. Same again. Would rather things just stay the same (life in the EU really isnt as bad as the UK media say) than **** up everything with a bunch of morons in charge and see the UK plunge into a depression.