Premier League Thread 2019/20

[Phube]

Also why are ManU 3rd when the stats state Chelsea are more likely to finish there?

 

The whole thing makes no sense!

[CloudFox]

4 minutes ago, Phube said:

Also why are ManU 3rd when the stats state Chelsea are more likely to finish there?

 

The whole thing makes no sense!

I'm convinced it's mainstream media just rocking backwards and forwards in a ball, telling themselves Man United will finish Top 4 until it becomes true.

[StanSP]

6 minutes ago, Phube said:

Are they also saying there’s a 3.3% chance that Wolves will gain 20 goals on us in two games? That’s them winning 2 games 5-0 and us losing both games 5-0!!!

I’m no bookie but the chances of a combination of results like that is << 3.3%.

Famous last words!

[dmayne7]

1 hour ago, Miquel The Work Geordie said:

 

Eddie Howe talks through his teeth, that's my main reason.

 

I think smaller clubs in the top flight can be an absolute joy, Holloway's Blackpool (for example) were actually quite entertaining for one reason or another - but for some reason there's a plucky underdog story attached to Bournemouth when they've spent *alot* over the past few seasons and it's just worn thin over time - the fact Dean Court is small seems to get them a free pass for contributing very little to the league. There's also a good case to be made that they're one of the scrotiest sides too, real ref surrounders.

 

In the main Burnley take some absolute pelters but the job Dyche has done at Turf Moor is on a different bracket to the (admittedly decent enough, long term) job Howe has done at Bournemouth - yet the latters stock always seems higher and I've genuinely no idea why given the past few seasons.

Let's also be clear that they spent a lot of money to get to the Prem as well. Not the ridiculous amounts you see in the championship now but when you've got a any club in League 1/2 paying a fee for a player, let along several hundred thousand, it's giving you a Man City esque advantage.

 

Then you factor in exactly what you have said about the fees spent in the Prem, on some truly average players, yet still keeping guys from League 1 and the only surprise is that it's taken them so long to be in genuine trouble.

 

Now, I'm not completely belittling Eddie Howe as he's clearly done a great job but he's also very naïve in that he just wants to play one way without any sense of adaptability. Dyche, on the other hand has done a bloody fantastic job (though any team in the PL complaining about money can do one) and whilst they do play some grim stuff at times at least they have a different style. Important to preserve the uniqueness of each team.

[RutlanderFox]

35 minutes ago, Phube said:

Are they also saying there’s a 3.3% chance that Wolves will gain 20 goals on us in two games? That’s them winning 2 games 5-0 and us losing both games 5-0!!!

I’m no bookie but the chances of a combination of results like that is << 3.3%.

I thought that too at first but they said in the article that the model was formed prior to the last round of fixtures

[The Bear]

12 hours ago, Lambert09 said:

Small team punching well above their weight, just curious why people dislike them so much? Despite being a bit of a bogey team for us? 

 

Bournemouth have a shit stadium but they've spend hundreds of millions getting where they are. That's not punching above their weight. 

 

Plus they are a bunch of diving ****ers. They all hit the deck more often than a workaholic DJ. 

[The Bear]

https://onefootball.com/en/news/man-utd-sit-top-of-the-premier-league-var-table-30455889

 

Just shows how much Man Utd have been rimmed by refs and VAR officials. 

 

"Well, Manchester United certainly can’t complain about how VAR has been used. A league-high SEVEN goals against United have been ruled out by VAR, while Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side haven’t seen ANY of their goals chalked off all season." 

[Webbo]

If they're saying that the crowds won't be allowed in till October then surely there'll be some more free games on BBC, amazon and pick? 

[StanSP]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

If they're saying that the crowds won't be allowed in till October then surely there'll be some more free games on BBC, amazon and pick? 

Premier League have already said it won't be the free-for-all as it has been like since restart.

[Fox92]

17 minutes ago, The Bear said:

 

Bournemouth have a shit stadium but they've spend hundreds of millions getting where they are. That's not punching above their weight. 

 

Plus they are a bunch of diving ****ers. They all hit the deck more often than a workaholic DJ. 

They are punching above their weight. Nobody sees them as a a "big club" or what people think a "top flight club" is. Yes they've spent money but everybody does nowadays, even in the football league. Having money, spending money, doesn't guarantee success. Ask clubs like Sheffield Wednesday. Even we failed when when spent stupid amounts under Sven.

 

It's not a shit stadium, it's just small. Because they are small. 10 years ago they were within distance of relegation to non league. It's mental really regardless.

 

I like Howe, I wouldn't want him as Leicester manager though, but I think he needs a DOF to control the money and players they bring in. Then again it must be hard to attract players to go to Bournemouth. If Bournemouth go in for a player and face competition from a historic/more traditional club, like yourselfs/us/Villa/Leeds etc, then the player probably won't pick Bournemouth. Even Matt Richie left them to join Newcastle in the Championship.

Edited 18 July 2020 by Fox92

[The Bear]

Sheff Utd are genuinely punching above their weight. 

 

Bournemouth are just some Russian guy's plaything. In the period between 2015 and 2019 they had a bigger net spend than Liverpool. 

Edited 18 July 2020 by The Bear

[4everfox]

1 hour ago, Phube said:

Also why are ManU 3rd when the stats state Chelsea are more likely to finish there?

 

The whole thing makes no sense!

Because matches are more likely to be fixed in their favour

[Fox92]

8 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Sheff Utd are genuinely punching above their weight. 

 

Bournemouth are just some Russian guy's plaything. 

Bournemouth spent about £5m/£6m in the Championship didn't they? And about £1m in League One (if you combine Ritchie/Fraser etc) before that? That's about it from my memory.

 

They've spent stupid amounts since getting to the PL I'll give you that. One shite too mainly.

 

While I agree Sheffield United are overachieving, they have spent about £60m this season, and are backed by the Prince from Saudi. They will continue to spend.

 

Burnley are the biggest overachievers for me. Dyche has done a superb job there.

Edited 18 July 2020 by Fox92

[UniFox21]

6 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Sheff Utd are genuinely punching above their weight. 

 

Bournemouth are just some Russian guy's plaything. In the period between 2015 and 2029 they had a bigger net spend than Liverpool. 

Does anything interesting happen in the next 9 years?

[Arriba Los Zorros]

4 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Sheff Utd are genuinely punching above their weight. 

 

Bournemouth are just some Russian guy's plaything. In the period between 2015 and 2029 they had a bigger net spend than Liverpool. 

Eddie Howe has done a brilliant job to keep Bournemouth in the top flight for this many years, playing attacking football. To say otherwise is plain wrong. Sheff It's are a much much bigger club than Bournemouth and have had to travel less far to get into the PL.

 

Where Bmouth have fallen down is recruitment, they've splashed the PL cash on some very average players and that's the reason why they will go down this year

[sdb]

2 hours ago, davieG said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8533865/New-data-shows-four-Europa-League-relegation-battles-end-Premier-League.html

 

 

 

We're down to the final two games of the season and there's still plenty to play for in the Premier League. 

With no fans, increased substitutions and water breaks, it may not feel like it, but the stakes don't get much bigger for a number of clubs towards the top and bottom of the league table. 

Manchester United, Chelsea and Leicester are still neck-and-neck in battling it out for the remaining spots in the top four. Bournemouth and Aston Villa are desperately trying to drag Watford back into the relegation mix while a host of clubs are in with a chance of Europa League football. 

And new data from StatsPerform has revealed the highest and lowest possible finishing positions for each of the Premier League's 20 clubs, as well as the percentage chance of them finishing in each position.

Sportsmail dissects the data and looks at what it could mean for your club at the end of this whirlwind season.  

 

With just two games to go, there is still so very little to split the three teams chasing a place in European football's premier competition next season. Leicester's win on Thursday means they could yet rally late, Chelsea are doggedly refusing to shift from the top four while United show no sign of stopping their charge.

And the data, gleaned prior to the previous round of fixtures, shows that all three teams can finish between third and fifth this season, with only Leicester mathematically possible to drop into sixth place. The data has Lampard's side at a 48.6% chance of clinching third place, while United have a 39.4% chance of finishing just below arch rivals City in third. Chelsea have a mere 12% chance of finishing fifth while United have a 20% chance of staying where they are in fifth. 

Meanwhile, Rodgers' side at 65.4% probability of finishing in fifth place, while they have a 3.3% chance of finishing sixth in the event that they have a disastrous final two games against Spurs and United. 

Despite fifth being a credible finish for a team not technically in the 'Big Six', the failure to make the Champions League could have a major impact on business this summer. The likes of James Maddison, Ben Chilwell and Caglar Soyuncu have been linked with moves to Europe's top teams, and without the security of Champions League football, Leicester fans could be waving goodbye to their star trio. They are expected to rake in close to the £142m earned by last season's fifth place finishers, Arsenal. 

 

But for Chelsea and United, the riches of Champions League football could propel them into contention with Liverpool and City for the league title. Last season, Chelsea and Spurs earned £146m and £145m respectively for finishing third and fourth. 

The Blues have already splashed £53m on Timo Werner as well as £38m for Hakim Ziyech, but the extra money could go a long way in financing a move for Bayer Leverkusen's Kai Havertz.

United are also set for a big summer themselves, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer eager to bring in Borussia Dortmund star Jadon Sancho, with the Germans anticipating a bid of £109m for the winger. Raul Jimenez, Jack Grealish and Havertz have also been linked with the Old Trafford club. 

Whoever finishes in fourth place will have to contend with a Champions League qualifier, but should they come through that contest unscathed, they, alongside the third place side, Man City and Liverpool will net a base fee of £13.8m for reaching the group stage.

 

If, as Liverpool did last season, one of those teams wins the whole competition, they could bag as much as £88.9m from the tournament.   

Beyond the race for the top four, there is still plenty to be decided for those clubs who couldn't quite keep the pace with Leicester, United and Chelsea. 

Wolves' draw to Burnley on Wednesday has all but ended their Champions League dream but clinching Europa League football for the second successive season would be a huge achievement for Nuno Espirito Santo's side, while north London rivals Arsenal and Spurs will be keen to secure a Europa League place after abject campaigns by their standards. Sheffield United remain closely on the tails of those three clubs, too. 

 

And StatsPerform's table shows that Wolves can finish as high as fifth but no lower than tenth, while Spurs, Arsenal and Sheffield can finish anywhere between sixth and tenth.

Those four aren't the only teams that could qualify for the Europa League next season, with Burnley a 1.1% chance of finishing seventh. If Arsenal do not win the FA Cup, Sean Dyche's team would be in Europe again with that finish.

With regards to merit payments, there is roughly a £2million difference between each position from fifth to tenth, although Spurs and Arsenal could end up netting more than Wolves and Sheffield United due to facility fees. Last season, The Gunners earned £28.9m from facility fees while Wolves raked in £17.8m.

However, it remains to be seen whether those marginal differences will be enough to allow Mikel Arteta to get on with the summer rebuild he desires while keeping his favoured players at the club. The north London club have struggled through the coronavirus pandemic, with owner Stan Kroenke pumping money into the club to help ease the financial burden, while the players and coach, Mikel Arteta, all agreed to a 12.5% wage cut. 

StatsPerform gives Arsenal a 16% chance of finishing in sixth, as well as a 25.3% chance of finishing in seventh, which would be enough if they don't win the FA Cup, meaning there is a whopping 58.8% chance that they miss out on European football altogether.

The lack of any form of European football could see Pierre Emerick Aubameyang, who is currently demanding a £250,000-per-week deal, walk away from the club, seeking action at the very top of the game. 

 

And in the same breath, no European football could hamper Arteta's ability to attract the big names required to climb them back up the table. Club legend Tony Adams has hit out at club chiefs Raul Sanllehi and Edu for being 'out of their depth' in recruiting for the club, and their jobs may be made even harder if Arsenal don't have European football on offer.

Spurs, too, may face a battle to keep hold of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min as a result of failure to earn the lucrative sums from finishing in the top four, particularly in light of the fact Manchester United and Chelsea are set to pocket more than the two north London clubs. Jose Mourinho's men raked in £145m after finishing fourth last season. They'll receive considerably less than that this time around. 

Mourinho's men are a 41.7% chance to finish sixth, 27.8% likely to finish seventh and have a 1.5% chance of finishing the season in tenth place.   

Wolves could finish as high as fifth, although StatsPerform gives them a slim 3.3% chance of doing so, with the data indicating that their best hope is finishing in either sixth or seventh, with a 30% likelihood of each. Last season, they earned a total of £127m for finishing seventh, and that sort of sum would be more than welcome as they look to keep hold of their stars. However, they could finish as low as tenth, being given a 0.9% chance of doing so. 

 

Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore have had outstanding seasons in the Black Country, and have both been linked with an array of big names. Whether another year in the Europa League will be enough to persuade the pair to stay remains to be seen. Particularly with Jimenez, who, at 29 years of age, could be looking to seal one final big contract.   

Wilder's Blades have an 8.3% chance of finishing sixth, a 15.6% chance of finishing seventh and a 41.3% chance of ending the season in ninth. The no-nonsense manager has said it's unlikely that his side will splash the cash in the transfer window, but the expected £123m they'd receive would be very welcome indeed.  

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, once the Premier League restart got up and running, West Ham, Watford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa looked so unlikely of securing one point, let alone three, with a series of terrible performances.

However, the Hammers and Hornets have picked up a couple of valuable wins to give themselves an edge over their rivals going into the final knockings but David Moyes' side's decisive 3-1 win over the Hornets on Friday has turned things in their favour. 

Prior to that win, StatsPerform's data shows that West Ham have a 1.4% chance of finishing as high as 14th, while Nigel Pearson's side could finish no higher than 16th. However, the outlook is bleak for Villa and Bournemouth heading into the final two games, with Eddie Howe's side having an 89.9% chance of relegation while Dean Smith's men are 81.8% likely to drop back into the Championship. 

 

 

The Cherries could extend their five-year stint in the top flight with two miraculous results against Southampton and Everton, but the data gives them a 9.6% chance of finishing 17th. Relegation would most likely see a number of top stars follow Ryan Fraser out of the door, too, with clubs expected to sniff around Joshua King and Callum Wilson. 

However, the biggest name they need to keep would be Eddie Howe. The young coach has seen his stock skyrocket in the Premier League, but should they keep hold of him and the core of their squad, they'd fancy their chances of coming up quickly, particularly with the estimated £101m parachute money at their disposal. 

For Villa, relegation could spell a rocky time for the club, who had splashed out lavishly on a host of new recruits when they gained promotion last summer. The club have spent around £143m on signings since winning top flight status and will have to offload a number of those incomings. But they could avoid that misery with wins over Arsenal and West Ham, and the data has the Villans at a 0.5% chance of finishing as high as 15th, 3.2% chance of 16th and 14.5% chance of 17th place. 

 

Dropping down to the Championship would likely see Villa cash in on club captain and fan favourite Jack Grealish, who has been courting the attention of United in particular. 

Grealish has singlehandedly been the bright spark of Smith's side, and it could take some time for them to recover from his loss. Villa will look to receive as much as £50m for their talisman's service. 

For West Ham and Watford, survival would mean both clubs will have a far better chance of holding onto their big name talents. The Hammers look set for a tough battle in keeping hold of Declan Rice, with Chelsea circling, while Pearson will have to convince Ismail Sarr and Abdoulaye Doucoure to give another season to the club. 

Due to facility fees, West Ham are likely to rake in more than Watford regardless of finishing position. Last season they earned almost £7m more than the Hornets in that regard. 

I remember looking at one of those grids during lockdown and we were about 90% certain to get top4. Maybe more. 

 

I did genuinely think it was far too generous, but looking back on the games we've fluffed, it really should have been wrapped up long before now.

[The Bear]

Sheff Utd's Saudi Prince owner has been in charge for a good year without pumping any real money in. I'm yet to be convinced. 

 

And he only got control by stealing Kevin McCabe's portion of the club through the courts. 

Edited 18 July 2020 by The Bear

[Phube]

58 minutes ago, RutlanderFox said:

I thought that too at first but they said in the article that the model was formed prior to the last round of fixtures

That’s nonsense, because before that round Wolves  and Sheffield U could have overtaken us and Man U and probably Chelsea!

[Fox92]

Just now, pmcla26 said:

Berge, McBurnie and Lys Mousset cost about £45million together - not spent loads but still quite a bit for a club coming up. 
 

We only spent about £12 million when we came up iirc, to put into perspective.

As I said in my post, I reckon it's about £60m. Osborne and Freeman were both about £5m each? McBurnie/Berge both around £20m. Mousset was £10m.

[KingsX]

1 hour ago, Phube said:

Are they also saying there’s a 3.3% chance that Wolves will gain 20 goals on us in two games? That’s them winning 2 games 5-0 and us losing both games 5-0!!!

I’m no bookie but the chances of a combination of results like that is << 3.3%.

 

We are fifth at worst.  fivethirtyeight.com shows these numbers.  Maybe optimistic in our case (they don’t factor in injuries/squad depth) but better than the nonsense in that table.

 

 

 

[Stadt]

Sheffield United’s wage budget probably still wouldn’t be in the top 6 in the championship. Wilder’s shown Dyche and Howe up as far as I’m concerned 

[The Bear]

£50m can easily be offset against improved TV revenue though. Its not a huge amount for a promoted team. Obviously they have decided they can afford to do it and have the fallback funds if they went down. 

 

Compare that to Norwich who have used this season to bolster their finances. When you bought Maddison that was just so they could stay afloat. 

[Fox92]

Just now, Stadt said:

Sheffield United’s wage budget probably still wouldn’t be in the top 6 in the championship. Wilder’s shown Dyche and Howe up as far as I’m concerned 

First season yeah, but remember Dyche has been in the league for 4/5 years which includes getting Burnley into Europe. I'd be surprised if Sheffield United are as high as this next season. Seen so many teams come up and finish top 10 then fail the following season (Reading, Ipswich, Wigan).

[The Bear]

1 minute ago, Stadt said:

Sheffield United’s wage budget probably still wouldn’t be in the top 6 in the championship. Wilder’s shown Dyche and Howe up as far as I’m concerned 

Absolutely. Good coaching and building a team and a transfer strategy can be much more powerful than just spending on players. 

[dmayne7]

32 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

Bournemouth spent about £5m/£6m in the Championship didn't they? And about £1m in League One (if you combine Ritchie/Fraser etc) before that? That's about it from my memory.

 

They've spent stupid amounts since getting to the PL I'll give you that. One shite too mainly.

 

While I agree Sheffield United are overachieving, they have spent about £60m this season, and are backed by the Prince from Saudi. They will continue to spend.

 

Burnley are the biggest overachievers for me. Dyche has done a superb job there.

Spent £3.5m over 2 seasons in League one. Granted it's probably only a net spend of £1m but I don't think you realise how ridiculous that is for a club of their size, that was on the brink and will have a very low revenue. 

 

As I said above, Howe did a great job but that's a luxury that very few clubs get at that level, so I certainly don't see it as some great fairytale.