Corona Virus

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, BKLFox said:

 

I'm not saying there shouldn't be questions asked but as the link mentions during the daily press conferences the same questions come up time & again or there's an effort to trick the presenters with a question so deep in numbers, timeframes, rumour or hearsay, a question the journalist has conjured up over a 24hr period since the last conference which is expected to be answered in full by a presenter that may not cover that questions field in a 2 minute window only for the media to rub their hands & say gotcha & report that the Government don't know what their doing - achives nothing in the greater scheme.
 

 

 

1 hour ago, davieG said:

Problem is most of it is not facts. It's mostly opinion interspersed with an occasional fact to make it look authentic.

I'd really question where you're both reading your news if you genuinely believe this to be the case. If you're relying on the Downing Street briefings then, yeah, it's eye-rolling stuff to see some of the "celebrity" journalists asking long-winded, triple-pronged, repetitive questions. But there is plenty of good, honest, critical reporting going on - and you really don't have to look far to find it.

 

Part of "pulling together" is collectively holding those in power to account, not just wildly cheerleading or ignoring what's going on in the face of a national disaster like this. No-one is forced to take the top jobs of government. They volunteer for it. And that means they volunteer for the top-level scrutiny that comes with it. You'd miss that scrutiny if it disappeared, no matter how repetitive or annoying you find those tasked with applying it.

[ithuriel]

 It seems no one seemingly knows the percentage of any population that has been infected, you read that one group says a high number, then another day you read it might be a low number.

There is so much about this bug that it seems is still conjecture and we are still early days into this pandemic.

 

 

[Kopfkino]

Of course you only needed a functioning unit within your skull to know it was bollocks but specialist Twitter teams have looked into it and can't find anything. 

 

Still we await John to figure out how to present 'complex data' to be 'understandable to non-geeks' to refute Twitter. Classic. 

 

[hackneyfox]

They've just cancelled the Oktoberfest and that's late September, early October in a country with very few deaths.

 

Either they're being overly cautious or this lockdown will go on in some form for a lot longer then we hope/expect.

[BKLFox]

1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

 

I'd really question where you're both reading your news if you genuinely believe this to be the case. If you're relying on the Downing Street briefings then, yeah, it's eye-rolling stuff to see some of the "celebrity" journalists asking long-winded, triple-pronged, repetitive questions. But there is plenty of good, honest, critical reporting going on - and you really don't have to look far to find it.

 

Part of "pulling together" is collectively holding those in power to account, not just wildly cheerleading or ignoring what's going on in the face of a national disaster like this. No-one is forced to take the top jobs of government. They volunteer for it. And that means they volunteer for the top-level scrutiny that comes with it. You'd miss that scrutiny if it disappeared, no matter how repetitive or annoying you find those tasked with applying it.

We do digress from my initial post where i stated that the article reflects my mood in that we see more & more doom, gloom, point scoring style of editing / questioning in the media as proved by most of the attachments on this forum which are negative in the main.

 

But On questioning is there a question that's been asked by either a celebrity / non celebrity journalist that hasn't been answered in some way & did that question start "Why...didn't / wasn't / weren't.... we "

 

An example of what i refer to, The other day when it was announced that 400k units of PPE was on its way, the 1st question/retort was " What goods that, that's not enough..." & this is where i go into my I know, you know, everyone knows its not enough but its what they can get their hands on

 

It just saps you

 

 

Edited 21 April 2020 by BKLFox

[leicsmac]

A couple of tidbits internationally:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52363852

 

Never let a good crisis go to waste when it comes to pandering to your voter base.

 

And something a little more sobering, but it is the word of one study in China that hasn't been peer-reviewed so your mileage may vary:

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

 

According to an epidemiologist friend of mine who is on the Coronavirus Task Force at the American Association for Precision Medicine and is taking at least the possibility of this article seriously, the breakdown is thus:

 

"T he mutational rate of SARS-CoV-2 has been assumed by many researchers to be rather low. Most viruses don't mutate terribly quickly, or to a significant degree. However, new research suggests that there is a massive difference in outcomes between the various know 10,000+ strains (and counting) and their respective 4,300 mutations.

 

Individual strains with unique mutations in no less than three separate sites are showing up, which I understand to be extremely rare, perhaps unprecedented.

 

Unfortunately, many of the mutations are on the spike protein, something else which many thought unlikely. It was presumed that a mutated spike protein would cause a failure of the virus to invade cells. Instead, it has been uncovered that some strains are now believed to have an increase of 270x higher viral load over others.

 

Without knowing what strain one has been infected by, it's a dice roll as to whether one is more likely to shrug it off, or succumb. This may explain the bizarre situations whereby some nations are largely unaffected, and how some very infirm people may survive whilst the strongest are felled.

 

Some patients have been discovered to have a superinfection of multiple strains, no doubt far deadlier in combination.

 

It also means that a successful vaccine that can cover all strains seems far less likely to be achieved. We might get a partial vaccine akin to the flu instead. Prophylactic drugs (potentially Methylene Blue) may be our best shot instead.

It's possible that over time the virus may be swapping genes with other coronaviruses such as the common cold causing OC43 or HCoV 229E, adding new tricks to it's recombinational little black book.

 

This absolute doozy of a virus has surprised many of us yet again, and it will no doubt continue to do so. Continue to expect the unexpected, and please avoid this capricious little monster as far as possible."

[Leicester_Loyal]

52 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

They've just cancelled the Oktoberfest and that's late September, early October in a country with very few deaths.

 

Either they're being overly cautious or this lockdown will go on in some form for a lot longer then we hope/expect.

Gatherings of tens of thousands of people will be banned for the whole year I'd imagine. It will be extremely doubtful any event will a huge number of people will happen in the next 3 or 4 months.

 

Why would the Government use FBPE (Follow Back Pro European) hashtags for their supposedly co-ordinated manipulation accounts? Seems a bit stupid

Edited 21 April 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[ithuriel]

Well, thankfully I'm almost over what ever bug I have/ had, just a slight ticklyness to the chest/throat now and my energy levels are increasing, six weeks now since I first became ill, seven if it was the virus since you do not show symptoms for the first week roughly speaking.

The new season will probably be played entirely behind closed doors, guess season tickets will be put on hold for a year.

Edited 21 April 2020 by ithuriel

[Strokes]

22 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

They've just cancelled the Oktoberfest and that's late September, early October in a country with very few deaths.

 

Either they're being overly cautious or this lockdown will go on in some form for a lot longer then we hope/expect.

I wouldn’t expect mass gatherings to go ahead in any country anywhere until either a vaccine is found or herd immunity is achieved.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, Sampson said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Weekly death figures are out on the ONS for week ending 10th April.

There were 18,516 deaths that week (highest on record since they started doing weekly tallys 20 years ago).

The average for this week over the past 5 years is 9,826 as reference. So it's basically doubled from what you'd usually expect for the 2nd week of April. 

6,213 were related to COVID-19 - around 1,000 of which happened outside the hospital, so likely haven't been included in the official death count yet.

The remaining 3,500 or so excess deaths are thought to be indirect deaths as a result of the lockdown/people not being treated for other conditions..

Heartbreaking.

 

Deaths in institutions other than hospitals, particularly care homes, seems to be a growing concern.

 

Based on those ONS figures, the BBC is saying that in a week from 3rd April to 10th April the number who had died in care homes rose from 200-odd to 1043....a much sharper rise than was happening in hospitals at the same stage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519  Anecdotal accounts suggest that care homes are still badly afflicted - and similar concerns have been expressed about growing infection rates in prisons, hospices etc.

 

I seem to remember a similar situation in Spain where, when the contagion had already left large numbers in hospital, it then spiked in care homes. 

Plus, spokespeople for the care home industry are decrying their inability to get testing or PPE in care homes. Hopefully the authorities will make the risk of contagion in institutions a higher priority for preventive action.

 

With all the public and media focus on the NHS, hospital numbers and community lockdown, there's a risk that insufficient attention continues to be paid to institutions housing large numbers in close proximity (harder to avoid in care homes, hospices or prisons than in the general community - and often with people who are a lot more vulnerable). We risk a scenario where (hopefully) community infections and hospital deaths have plateaued and are starting to fall slowly...but the situation continues to deteriorate in care homes and other institutions.

[Jon the Hat]

 

50 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

They've just cancelled the Oktoberfest and that's late September, early October in a country with very few deaths.

 

Either they're being overly cautious or this lockdown will go on in some form for a lot longer then we hope/expect.

It is also a huge draw for tourists from all over the world, so most likley they don't want that influx.

[Jon the Hat]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Deaths in institutions other than hospitals, particularly care homes, seems to be a growing concern.

 

Based on those ONS figures, the BBC is saying that in a week from 3rd April to 10th April the number who had died in care homes rose from 200-odd to 1043....a much sharper rise than was happening in hospitals at the same stage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519  Anecdotal accounts suggest that care homes are still badly afflicted - and similar concerns have been expressed about growing infection rates in prisons, hospices etc.

 

I seem to remember a similar situation in Spain where, when the contagion had already left large numbers in hospital, it then spiked in care homes. 

Plus, spokespeople for the care home industry are decrying their inability to get testing or PPE in care homes. Hopefully the authorities will make the risk of contagion in institutions a higher priority for preventive action.

 

With all the public and media focus on the NHS, hospital numbers and community lockdown, there's a risk that insufficient attention continues to be paid to institutions housing large numbers in close proximity (harder to avoid in care homes, hospices or prisons than in the general community - and often with people who are a lot more vulnerable). We risk a scenario where (hopefully) community infections and hospital deaths have plateaued and are starting to fall slowly...but the situation continues to deteriorate in care homes and other institutions.

I'm not clear if that 1000 care homes figures includes catch up from earlier periods not reported, or is genuine;  are these based on date of death or date of report?

[l444ry]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/20/exclusivemillions-pieces-ppe-shipped-britain-europe-despite/?fbclid=IwAR3XLDjgNbq7M3QDPsLK3FdAV-Va9EM_Ut2oJPZzyBdIAhqNMMVJUX7myWw

[hackneyfox]

18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

It is also a huge draw for tourists from all over the world, so most likley they don't want that influx.

I understand exactly why they've cancelled it, my point is that this not going to be over anywhere nearly as quickly as we hope.

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I'm not clear if that 1000 care homes figures includes catch up from earlier periods not reported, or is genuine;  are these based on date of death or date of report?

 

As I understand it, the figure is based on death registrations quoting Covid-19: there had been 200-odd such registrations from care homes by 3rd April, but 1043 by 10th April.....so the cumulative total had quadrupled in a week.

 

I'm sure that figure includes some deaths that occurred before 3rd April, but doubt that it would have distorted the figure greatly. Firstly, death registrations are usually turned around within 3-4 days. Secondly, the hospital figures for the previous week were lower as it was when the figures were still climbing (3rd-10th April may have been the peak with hindsight - in hospitals, at least).

 

If anything, logically you'd think there might be more deaths carried over from that week of 3rd-10th April (peak in hospitals) to the next set of weekly figures. I'm sure that won't quadruple again, but is likely to be high again.

 

Sampson linked to the ONS data on which this reporting is based - in the post that I replied to.

[January47]

3 hours ago, reynard said:

This is by far the most important statistic. Clearly showing the overall impact of the virus on the death rate and will surely be one of the most important factors in deciding on lifting the lockdown. Around 450 people a day die from one form of cancer or another. If that number is greatly increased through the lack of treatment the numbers will make the corona virus deaths look small in comparison.

I'm not saying that this is wrong however I'd be a little cautious. We had an extremely mild winter and as shown on the graph expected deaths for several months were well below normal so some of this could be a case of catching up. There are so many parameters affecting these numbers that its difficult to make conclusions until you get the benefit of hindsight and more data/research.

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

A couple of tidbits internationally:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52363852

 

Never let a good crisis go to waste when it comes to pandering to your voter base.

 

And something a little more sobering, but it is the word of one study in China that hasn't been peer-reviewed so your mileage may vary:

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

 

According to an epidemiologist friend of mine who is on the Coronavirus Task Force at the American Association for Precision Medicine and is taking at least the possibility of this article seriously, the breakdown is thus:

 

"T he mutational rate of SARS-CoV-2 has been assumed by many researchers to be rather low. Most viruses don't mutate terribly quickly, or to a significant degree. However, new research suggests that there is a massive difference in outcomes between the various know 10,000+ strains (and counting) and their respective 4,300 mutations.

 

Individual strains with unique mutations in no less than three separate sites are showing up, which I understand to be extremely rare, perhaps unprecedented.

 

Unfortunately, many of the mutations are on the spike protein, something else which many thought unlikely. It was presumed that a mutated spike protein would cause a failure of the virus to invade cells. Instead, it has been uncovered that some strains are now believed to have an increase of 270x higher viral load over others.

 

Without knowing what strain one has been infected by, it's a dice roll as to whether one is more likely to shrug it off, or succumb. This may explain the bizarre situations whereby some nations are largely unaffected, and how some very infirm people may survive whilst the strongest are felled.

 

Some patients have been discovered to have a superinfection of multiple strains, no doubt far deadlier in combination.

 

It also means that a successful vaccine that can cover all strains seems far less likely to be achieved. We might get a partial vaccine akin to the flu instead. Prophylactic drugs (potentially Methylene Blue) may be our best shot instead.

It's possible that over time the virus may be swapping genes with other coronaviruses such as the common cold causing OC43 or HCoV 229E, adding new tricks to it's recombinational little black book.

 

This absolute doozy of a virus has surprised many of us yet again, and it will no doubt continue to do so. Continue to expect the unexpected, and please avoid this capricious little monster as far as possible."

Second study is interesting however language is also very important. 

 

You could say that the asymptomatic cases have 270 lower viral load over the others, which makes things sound a lot more positive as it could have mutated into a much more milder strain. The 270x higher example, is eyecatching but what are we judging it against, if that makes sense?  

[Jon the Hat]

15 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

I understand exactly why they've cancelled it, my point is that this not going to be over anywhere nearly as quickly as we hope.

In Germany I expect normal service will be largely resumed by them for the locals, just international movements will be heavily restricted still.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Second study is interesting however language is also very important. 

 

You could say that the asymptomatic cases have 270 lower viral load over the others, which makes things sound a lot more positive as it could have mutated into a much more milder strain. The 270x higher example, is eyecatching but what are we judging it against, if that makes sense?  

From what I can tell, against the viral load of the strains we had identified up until now.

 

Honestly, I sincerely hope that what is being read into things by that article isn't accurate, for everyone's sake.

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, hackneyfox said:

They've just cancelled the Oktoberfest and that's late September, early October in a country with very few deaths.

 

Either they're being overly cautious or this lockdown will go on in some form for a lot longer then we hope/expect.

Surely it's sensible caution to do this. It's not just Oktoberfest for that area. It's a huge pull for tourists so cancelling that also stops people all over the world who have/could have the virus from spreading it further. 

[st albans fox]

37 minutes ago, l444ry said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/20/exclusivemillions-pieces-ppe-shipped-britain-europe-despite/?fbclid=IwAR3XLDjgNbq7M3QDPsLK3FdAV-Va9EM_Ut2oJPZzyBdIAhqNMMVJUX7myWw

It’s amazing isn’t it 

 

I guess these PPE suppliers have found customers all over Europe whereas in this country, it’s either big care home groups, medical supply wholesalers or the NHS procurement who are attractive for decent volumes.  Being huge  (as per the NHS ) isn’t always the best thing - especially given the logistics of enormous warehouses and lots of drops to make. 

[Lionator]

10 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

From what I can tell, against the viral load of the strains we had identified up until now.

 

Honestly, I sincerely hope that what is being read into things by that article isn't accurate, for everyone's sake.

There's enough for now to be sceptical about I think. I've just skimmed through the paper itself and although I have no understanding of genetic mutation of viruses, the sample size of 11 is tiny, it's very difficult to make any reliable conclusion from that. It'll be interesting to see if any follow up studies support or contradict this theory. 

[Dahnsouff]

45 minutes ago, l444ry said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/20/exclusivemillions-pieces-ppe-shipped-britain-europe-despite/?fbclid=IwAR3XLDjgNbq7M3QDPsLK3FdAV-Va9EM_Ut2oJPZzyBdIAhqNMMVJUX7myWw

Isn`t this just a commercial decision on part of that company supplying said PPE? (Sh1tty mind if so)

Edited 21 April 2020 by Dahnsouff

[l444ry]

2 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Isn`t this just a commercial decision on part of that company supplying said PPE?

The article states that their offers of help were ignored by the government. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Lionator said:

There's enough for now to be sceptical about I think. I've just skimmed through the paper itself and although I have no understanding of genetic mutation of viruses, the sample size of 11 is tiny, it's very difficult to make any reliable conclusion from that. It'll be interesting to see if any follow up studies support or contradict this theory. 

That's fair enough.

 

Personally, as I said above I'm hoping that this isn't all that but it was shared and explained by someone whose views and expertise I respect hugely on the matter and who is not normally prone to dire speculation - at least the possibility is being taken seriously for now, I guess.