Corona Virus

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, los dedos said:

Where is the evidence of that ? By all accounts we are one of the better nationns at sticking to the lockdown. Only just above Spain and Italy even though they have stricter rules

Graph below is a few weeks old but as far as I'm aware nothing has changed .

I think the anecdotal evidence is that it has changed here over the past week ......

 

and what crap is this from Raab on marr this morning ?  What does it even mean ???  

 

 

 

You could spin it to say that other countries have their PPE sorted so its only us left looking for huge qtys !

Edited 26 April 2020 by st albans fox

[Lionator]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Just to cheer you all up, I noticed that either whitty or Vallance commented that if re infection is indeed common then a vaccine will be unlikely ...... but I doubt that re infection would  be common? I guess there is so much to learn about this CV. I am adjusting my attitude when out though which has been a bit ‘laissez faire’ as I assumed I couldn’t catch it again. 

Germany's top dog Dr. Drosten is convinced that there is some sort of immunity. In fact Charite released a study this week stating that around 34% of people have immunity to covid-19 due to previous coronavirus colds that protect against serious symptoms and that may explain why children are not getting ill, as they're more likely to catch colds. He's also convinced a vaccine will work, it's a when not if. 

 

 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440v1 Here's the study. The interesting part 

 

'We demonstrate the presence of S-reactive CD4+ T cells in 83% of COVID-19 patients, as well as in 34% of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy donors, albeit at lower frequencies.'

 

It means that in 83% of covid-19 patients the immune system reacts to prevent a further infection. Also, 34% of people who haven't been exposed to covid-19 produce an immune response which prevents most likely anything more than a very mild infection. This is likely due to previous coronavirus exposure (non covid-19 infection), which is really encouraging. And this isn't just a throwaway study either, the main authors are some of the key scientific players in the German response.

 

Further edit: When the WHO say that there's no evidence that you can't get infected twice, this is the first solid evidence which indicates that in the majority, you can't get infected twice and even if you do, it will be more mild on the second occasion. 

Edited 26 April 2020 by Lionator

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Toddybad said:

It's pretty pointless them releasing numbers publicly if nobody can work out what they actually relate to.

 

They need to capture the non hospital deaths, include them into the headline figure and then report numbers a consistent 2 or 3 days behind if it takes them a while to get a daily total.

I’m surprised they haven’t developed a simple phone app for medical staff to allow data to be reported and collated quickly. Perhaps it’s more difficult than it sounds.

[davieG]

46 minutes ago, los dedos said:

Where is the evidence of that ? By all accounts we are one of the better nationns at sticking to the lockdown. Only just above Spain and Italy even though they have stricter rules

Graph below is a few weeks old but as far as I'm aware nothing has changed .

From when I'm taking my daily walk the number of cars on the road around me has gone from one every now and then to a constant stream, I've also seen a group of 5 people playing golf plus there's been numerous reports of people ignoring the social distancing guide.

[foxile5]

52 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I think the anecdotal evidence is that it has changed here over the past week ......

 

and what crap is this from Raab on marr this morning ?  What does it even mean ???  

 

 

 

You could spin it to say that other countries have their PPE sorted so its only us left looking for huge qtys !

In an economy is it not better to be the seller than the buyer

[filbertway]

6 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I’m surprised they haven’t developed a simple phone app for medical staff to allow data to be reported and collated quickly. Perhaps it’s more difficult than it sounds.

Building an app for recording and reporting data would be easy, the deployment and defining who would use it and making sure this was adhered to would be the issue I imagine.

 

There's already a process in place for reporting deaths. Does this replace that or do people have to enter the same data into two different systems. As soon as you do that you're increasing the chance of human error and creating data that isn't accurate and thus serves no purpose other than to waste time. Then there's also the very likely possibility that the requirements of the app would change. The more an app/website deviates from the original purpose the more complex and difficult it comes to make changes.

 

A decent idea in prinicpal, but the realities make it a very challenging piece of work, that I'm not sure would be fit for purpose in time for it to be worth developing.

[los dedos]

9 minutes ago, davieG said:

From when I'm taking my daily walk the number of cars on the road around me has gone from one every now and then to a constant stream, I've also seen a group of 5 people playing golf plus there's been numerous reports of people ignoring the social distancing guide.

Yet that's all anecdotal,  Seeing more cars on the road could be for a number of reasons. I work in food production and shifts have changed so people are going work at different times. 

You cant take randoms on a football forum as proof to how well the lockdown is observed . The above tweet was retweeted by the Chief Constable of Leicestershire. 

[st albans fox]

8 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

In an economy is it not better to be the seller than the buyer

Depends if there is a surplus of stock ................

 

with PPE it’s currently better to be a seller 

[filbertway]

Took my car out yesterday for it's weekly ride, didn't notice a great deal more traffic around me than any other weeks to be honest. Although I swear people are driving more recklessly now. A few times i've had right of way and the other car has just decided to come anyway and forced me right up to the kerb.

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, los dedos said:

Yet that's all anecdotal,  Seeing more cars on the road could be for a number of reasons. I work in food production and shifts have changed so people are going work at different times. 

You cant take randoms on a football forum as proof to how well the lockdown is observed . The above tweet was retweeted by the Chief Constable of Leicestershire. 

But surely car traffic on motorways is going to be the last to see an increase ......

 

I agree with others ....two/three weeks ago, I would see odd cars on my walks ..... now I often have to wait to cross roads 

[Suzie the Fox]

Not seeing any increase in traffic, in fact quite the contrary when I went into Melton to do my weekly shop on Thursday. The town, roads pavements were eerily dead. 
 

I have noticed a few more joggers, however they have been running solo and are probably on their once a day exersize so no biggie. 

[reynard]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

The guardian data is flawed though

 

Govt have dramatically increased testing capacity over that 3 weeks which means that they will obviously capture more cases now. 
 

still thinking that only a proper lockdown will get a grip of this and we have wasted weeks where we could have been doing this ..... the half hearted lockdown introduced will surely just have a half hearted effect on virus transmission without massive testing capacity being in place. haven’t we got this arse about tit ?  Without the capacity to test, we should have had a more stringent lockdown ??? Once we have better testing capacity and network in place, we can relax that lockdown ??

Yes they have but the actual number of people being tested has not increased by the same percentage until maybe the last couple of days. New infections running at close to 5k every day. The German response last week was that test and trace can really only work, for them, once the number of new cases confrimed each day was down into the hundreds. We are simply miles from that.

Also very unlikely that more than around 5% of population will have been infected. There are a lot of people that have been ill who think they have had it but have not had a test to confrim this. Quite likely they have not had it. So they will be running around, if the lockdown is lifted, thinking they have immunity when they may well not. We need both an anti body test (proving more difficult to get than anticipated) and the numbers of new infections to fall dramatically before any release of the lockdown in any substantial way will be considered by the governement.

Boris's quote from Cicero, today, also hints at a more cautious approach.

[reynard]

8 minutes ago, Suzie the Fox said:

Not seeing any increase in traffic, in fact quite the contrary when I went into Melton to do my weekly shop on Thursday. The town, roads pavements were eerily dead. 
 

I have noticed a few more joggers, however they have been running solo and are probably on their once a day exersize so no biggie. 

Quite the opposite where I live. Very rural so quiet anyway but where 10 days ago I saw no cars at all, yesterday, on the same walk over a dozen and most with more than one person in them.

My wife also said the roads were a lot busier when she went to work on Friday than they had been the previous week.

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, reynard said:

Yes they have but the actual number of people being tested has not increased by the same percentage until maybe the last couple of days. New infections running at close to 5k every day. The German response last week was that test and trace can really only work, for them, once the number of new cases confrimed each day was down into the hundreds. We are simply miles from that.

Also very unlikely that more than around 5% of population will have been infected. There are a lot of people that have been ill who think they have had it but have not had a test to confrim this. Quite likely they have not had it. So they will be running around, if the lockdown is lifted, thinking they have immunity when they may well not. We need both an anti body test (proving more difficult to get than anticipated) and the numbers of new infections to fall dramatically before any release of the lockdown in any substantial way will be considered by the governement.

Boris's quote from Cicero, today, also hints at a more cautious approach.

I pretty much agree with you re testing ........ I disagree re percentage of population infected although I suspect there is a large variation across the country and between different population centres. 
 

taking my central London office as a reference, we have had 4 out of 18 members of staff affected (we closed 20 March so no social distancing was in place). I would estimate countrywide to be closer to 7/10% with London possibly double that. 

[StanSP]

 

 

Quite good if you have the capability and know how to do this! And if you get on with your neighbours

 

[Desabafar]

https://thecritic.co.uk/covid-19s-willing-accomplice/

 

How Tedros Ghebreyesus and the WHO devastated the world to flatter China

 

lots of questions to be answered after this

[HankMarvin]

5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Quite good if you have the capability and know how to do this! And if you get on with your neighbours

 

Yeah great till someone sneezes at you 

or hands you your glass with their snot ridden fingers covered in germs 

[st albans fox]

19 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

https://thecritic.co.uk/covid-19s-willing-accomplice/

 

How Tedros Ghebreyesus and the WHO devastated the world to flatter China

 

lots of questions to be answered after this

Tedros wont survive this unless the WHO becomes a basically China funded organisation 

[st albans fox]

25 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Quite good if you have the capability and know how to do this! And if you get on with your neighbours

 

But it’s basically against the rules for lots of reasons ..some of which Hank has mentioned ......

[z-layrex]

26 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Quite good if you have the capability and know how to do this! And if you get on with your neighbours

 

Stupid and breaks the rules. But who cares the rules don't apply to them.

[Alf Bentley]

Just went for my walk around Victoria Park and there weren't many up there, despite the good weather.

Overwhelmingly individuals, couples and families, too. Almost no groups sitting on the grass chatting, drinking or barbecuing like sunny days past - and no groups of lads playing football or skateboarding in groups in the tennis courts.

 

That's been pretty much the story for the past 3+ weeks at Victoria Park from what I've seen (walk every other day).

There was one day (Thursday before Easter) when there were lots of knots of lads, but I've not seen that again since.

 

Purely anecdotal but taken together posts on here suggest, if anything, good social distancing in public areas but maybe an increase in cars - more people working, going to countryside or visiting family (where they may abide by social distancing)? 

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Just went for my walk around Victoria Park and there weren't many up there, despite the good weather.

Overwhelmingly individuals, couples and families, too. Almost no groups sitting on the grass chatting, drinking or barbecuing like sunny days past - and no groups of lads playing football or skateboarding in groups in the tennis courts.

 

That's been pretty much the story for the past 3+ weeks at Victoria Park from what I've seen (walk every other day).

There was one day (Thursday before Easter) when there were lots of knots of lads, but I've not seen that again since.

 

Purely anecdotal but taken together posts on here suggest, if anything, good social distancing in public areas but maybe an increase in cars - more people working, going to countryside or visiting family (where they may abide by social distancing)? 

Which isn’t allowed unless delivering medication or food to those who can’t get out 

 

I suspect that boris will give tomorrow’s conference and maybe some of the morons who have decided that they don’t need to do it will take instruction from him and better observe the restrictions 

Edited 26 April 2020 by st albans fox

[StanSP]

35 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

Yeah great till someone sneezes at you 

or hands you your glass with their snot ridden fingers covered in germs 

 

15 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

But it’s basically against the rules for lots of reasons ..some of which Hank has mentioned ......

 

14 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

Stupid and breaks the rules. But who cares the rules don't apply to them.

Yeah I didn't see the glass being handed over. Would just be easier to make your own drink surely?! You'd also think someone wouldn't sneeze at you and would turn away  

 

Surely keeping the distance is fine though? 

[leicsmac]

39 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

https://thecritic.co.uk/covid-19s-willing-accomplice/

 

How Tedros Ghebreyesus and the WHO devastated the world to flatter China

 

lots of questions to be answered after this

IMO what this clearly indicates is that such supranational organisations having to mind the reputation of any nation state - no matter which one - too often inhibits the purpose of what they should be doing. It's been seen on the UN Security Council often enough from all sides.

 

Not sure what the solution is, to be honest, though, organisations like the WHO, the IPCC and others need to have the freedom to be able to ignore the big boys and their ego issues (and indeed, in some cases, be able to state policy ideas that even supersede them), but at the same time they need to be accountable to someone.

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Which isn’t allowed unless delivering medication or food to those who can’t get out 

 

I suspect that boris will give tomorrow’s conference and maybe some of the morons who have decided that they don’t need to do it will take instruction from him and better observe the restrictions 

 

I wasn't expressing a judgment for or against such behaviour, just trying to understand what's going on - based on the anecdotal accounts on here.

Personally, since the Villa match I've not met anyone except my daughter (who partly lives with me) and shop assistants across a counter. 

 

If Johnson does give people instruction on abiding by restrictions, I hope he shows a bit of penance - as a few weeks ago he ignored official advice and boasted in the national media about shaking hands with Covid-19 patients.

If he's prepared to admit his misjudgment - a much bigger misjudgment than the "morons" visiting a relative and social distancing - then his instructions could have a lot of credibility, given where he's been for the last few weeks.