Corona Virus

[StanSP]

34 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Far, far too early to post this kind of "I told you so" shit.

I'm half expecting it to be deleted tbh

I've been playing poker and had a lot of drinks so probably shouldn't have posted it

[HankMarvin]

3 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Anyone tried the bleach thing yet? 

Bumhole?

[lestajigs]

6 hours ago, Collymore said:

The traffic was horrendous on my walk today, really busy. People driving like idiots all of a sudden speeding about and accelerating really aggressively for some reason with little thought for anyone. 

 

 

 

 

I hope there were not on there mobile phones,  you have seen what happens when people tx and drive 🤨

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, Sampson said:

Far, far too early to post this kind of "I told you so" shit.

 

We're still at the very beginning of the pandemic, not approaching the end as some seem to think. And certainly not scientific- we can't know that until we understand more about the transmission of the virus outside hospital.

 

You can only analyse whether lockdown have been worth itt in several years time by comparing total excess mortality to the previous 5 years average.

 

It could turn out that all a too early lockdown does is kick the can down the road and countries who locked down earlier have to deal with a much higher peak once the virus comes back and cause many more needless deaths through economic hardships and deaths from other diseases and might mean more lockdown are needed in the future.

I respectfully disagree.

 

Kicking the can down the road is exactly the right response until the assumptions underpinning a reliance on herd immunity are proved. We’ve discussed these assumptions before so I won’t go over them again, but to me it’s like putting all your chips on one number, and even if you win the house might renege on the payout.

 

To use another analogy, it might be compared to discovering a relatively small bush fire, and deciding that it’s probably all going to burn anyway eventually so may as well leave it to get bigger before doing anything.

 

Those countries that locked down early in their respective cycles (I include Australia in this, by luck or judgment) have had generally less severe restrictions (presumably allowing a higher level of economic activity to continue), and are already looking forward to cautiously lifting some of them and opening the economy more.

 

In Australia because the “firefight” stage was less severe there’s been greater scope to prepare for this by building up production of PPE, and massively ramping up test & trace capability. In contrast, the epidemic recovery in Italy, Spain, UK, USA, looks much slower (the exact opposite of the old trading metaphor of the market going “up the escalator, down the lift shaft”), and this will surely amplify economic damage.

 

Obviously Australia has a very different profile to the UK, so there may turn out to be significant other factors such as climate/season, population density, etc, but so far i’m personally much happier that the authorities here have “kicked the can down the road”.
 

People have every right to compare different countries’ responses and outcomes to date, and hope that their authorities learn from best practice reviews.

Edited 25 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Nalis]

Random point that isn't related to any recent posts but one of the things I've seen generally in life/social media/media thats bugged me is the dick swinging competition between nationalities on confirmed cases and death rates.

 

Seen and heard comments from a host of nationalities such as Irish, New Zealand, Indian, etc shouting about how their death tolls are so low compared to the UK as if its a Coronavirus Masters and the UK are 19,000 over par...

 

The missus works on a very international team and had some of her colleagues openly state on Zoom team calls ' you had x deaths yesterday, we only had x deaths'. How do you even respond to that?

 

Regardless of what people think of the UK government approach there's a streak of schadenfreude which is sad to see considering death tolls arent just a number on a website, they are sons, daughters, mothers, fathers and friends who have died.

 

Every nation is at it, UK were just as bad with figures from China and Italy a couple of months ago (and now the USA).

 

An ugly human trait indeed.

[Nod.E]

2 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I respectfully disagree.

 

Kicking the can down the road is exactly the right response until the assumptions underpinning a reliance on herd immunity are proved. We’ve discussed these assumptions before so I won’t go over them again, but to me it’s like putting all your chips on one number, and even if you win the house might renege on the payout.

 

To use another analogy, it might be compared to discovering a relatively small bush fire, and deciding that it’s probably all going to burn anyway eventually so may as well leave it to get bigger before doing anything.

 

Those countries that locked down early in their respective cycles (I include Australia in this, by luck or judgment) have had generally less severe restrictions (presumably allowing a higher level of economic activity to continue), and are already looking forward to cautiously lifting some of them and opening the economy more.

 

In Australia because the “firefight” stage was less severe there’s been greater scope to prepare for this by building up production of PPE, and massively ramping up test & trace capability. In contrast, the epidemic recovery in Italy, Spain, UK, USA, looks much slower (the exact opposite of the old trading metaphor of the market going “up the escalator, down the lift shaft”), and this will surely amplify economic damage.

 

Obviously Australia has a very different profile to the UK, so there may turn out to be significant other factors such as climate/season, population density, etc, but so far i’m personally much happier that the authorities here have “kicked the can down the road”.
 

People have every right to compare different countries’ responses and outcomes to date, and hope that their authorities learn from best practice reviews.

With the benefit of hindsight, an earlier lockdown may well have been beneficial. You're right on that, it would seem.

 

However while it's clear that continuing lockdown measures for a long period of time will reduce coronavirus deaths in the here and now, what we do not know is the scale of the second order effects in the long term. Suicides. People avoiding treatments for other diseases for fear of catching Covid. Deaths relating to worsening living standards. Domestic abuse. The list goes on. We cannot neglect that. Not only could it end up being bigger than actual Covid deaths without a lockdown, it could mean we're causing ourselves needless hardships psychologically and economically.

 

My expectation is that some measures will be lifted on May 8th, though I stress the word some. Very few. 

 

While it's nowhere near the end of this thing, the next step is a loosening, not a tightening.

[WigstonWanderer]

33 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

With the benefit of hindsight, an earlier lockdown may well have been beneficial. You're right on that, it would seem.

 

However while it's clear that continuing lockdown measures for a long period of time will reduce coronavirus deaths in the here and now, what we do not know is the scale of the second order effects in the long term. Suicides. People avoiding treatments for other diseases for fear of catching Covid. Deaths relating to worsening living standards. Domestic abuse. The list goes on. We cannot neglect that. Not only could it end up being bigger than actual Covid deaths without a lockdown, it could mean we're causing ourselves needless hardships psychologically and economically.

 

My expectation is that some measures will be lifted on May 8th, though I stress the word some. Very few. 

 

While it's nowhere near the end of this thing, the next step is a loosening, not a tightening.

I’d imagine that every one of the issues you mention, especially people with possibly serious illness not visiting hospital for fear of catching Covid 19, would have been lessened by an earlier (and hence less severe and lengthy) lockdown.

 

Look, I realise that this is, at least to some extent, with hindsight, and as I’ve said, Australia’s lockdown early in its cycle was probably at least partially fortuitous. I also accept completely that for those countries including the UK that have had to endure a horribly severe first wave, things are very difficult and there are no simple solutions. It might prove to be very difficult to reestablish a containment strategy, even if that is the aim.

 

However, there is likely to be more than one wave of infection and it is very important that “best practice” lessons are learned and applied later.

Edited 25 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Pliskin]

Regarding Trumps comments I expect it, the guys a retired budget porn star, wrestler and actor. What I find more embarrassing is the fact the BBC felt compelled to write an article about it, giving evidence as to why it won’t work. I’m more speechless about that than I am his comments. I can’t remember the last time I thought of shooting some bleach up my bum to clean the bowels. 

[Crinklyfox]

13 hours ago, Izzy said:

@Crinklyfox have you had these texts from the NHS saying you can’t go out of the house until end of June? I’ve just had another one...

 

NHS Coronavirus Service: You can open a window but do not go outside your property. Ask others to take rubbish to bins and to walk any pets.

If you need a repeat prescription, order online via the NHS app or your GP's online services https://www.nhs.uk/health-at-home

Please ask your family, friends or neighbours to pick up your prescriptions from a pharmacy. Remind them to leave them outside your door.

Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds after contact with anything from the outside and moisturise after.

We will send you more messages with information. This service is automated, to opt out reply STOP.

I've had that one and a few more.  At least I can still get into the garden as that's 'property'.  I checked that first with the hospital.  Think I'd go stir crazy if I lived in a flat.

 

What bothers me is that although twelve weeks is a long time the virus is still going to be around by then and I fear that at the end of June I'll simply get another message extending isolation for another twelve weeks.  Logically the government won't want the NHS suddenly overloaded with patients with underlying complications which would make recovery more difficult.

[st albans fox]

10 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Maybe to do with Cheltenham 

 185 historic deaths added where covid considered a large contributor to the death
 

2 hours ago, Nod.E said:

With the benefit of hindsight, an earlier lockdown may well have been beneficial. You're right on that, it would seem.

 

However while it's clear that continuing lockdown measures for a long period of time will reduce coronavirus deaths in the here and now, what we do not know is the scale of the second order effects in the long term. Suicides. People avoiding treatments for other diseases for fear of catching Covid. Deaths relating to worsening living standards. Domestic abuse. The list goes on. We cannot neglect that. Not only could it end up being bigger than actual Covid deaths without a lockdown, it could mean we're causing ourselves needless hardships psychologically and economically.

 

My expectation is that some measures will be lifted on May 8th, though I stress the word some. Very few. 

 

While it's nowhere near the end of this thing, the next step is a loosening, not a tightening.

sorry to be a pedant again but surely there is no way that any restrictions are lifted on a bank holiday weekend ?
 

 

4 minutes ago, Crinklyfox said:

I've had that one and a few more.  At least I can still get into the garden as that's 'property'.  I checked that first with the hospital.  Think I'd go stir crazy if I lived in a flat.

 

What bothers me is that although twelve weeks is a long time the virus is still going to be around by then and I fear that at the end of June I'll simply get another message extending isolation for another twelve weeks.  Logically the government won't want the NHS suddenly overloaded with patients with underlying complications which would make recovery more difficult.

This is going to be a ‘big topic’ as we lift restrictions 

 

those who have a family member that needs to be shielded will have to make a call on their actions. If they live with this person, do they resume normal life (as much as we are allowed) ?  Do people accept  that they can’t visit a vulnerable close family member ? 
 

it’s going to be a very complex and an emotionally difficult period until a vaccine is found or testing is so readily available that you can just get a test on that day and then visit someone with confidence that you are negative.  
 

as an example, if a family has a vulnerable parent or grandparent, can the children return to school ??.  Can others in the house return to work?  Can the teenagers go out and see friends.  We’re potentially talking months down the line here.   

 

 

[StanSP]

 

[Izzy]

50 minutes ago, Crinklyfox said:

I've had that one and a few more.  At least I can still get into the garden as that's 'property'.  I checked that first with the hospital.  Think I'd go stir crazy if I lived in a flat.

 

What bothers me is that although twelve weeks is a long time the virus is still going to be around by then and I fear that at the end of June I'll simply get another message extending isolation for another twelve weeks.  Logically the government won't want the NHS suddenly overloaded with patients with underlying complications which would make recovery more difficult.

It's difficult because I guess these texts and letters are just advising us to stay indoors (for our own good obvs). There has to come a time (for our own sanity) where we're 'allowed' out again otherwise people will just go crazy.

 

It does make me smile a bit that I'm now categorized as 'high risk' and 'extremely vulnerable' but only just had this confirmed a month after lockdown (I wonder if they roll out this advice by age e.g. eldest first?)

 

For the last month I've been out jogging, walking and shopping but now I'm told I can't. Feels a bit 'locking the stable door after the horse has bolted' but there you go...

 

Enjoy your garden in the sunshine mate 

 

[Super_horns]

I think they wlll relax the general lockdown so more essential workers can go back but probably still have social distancing even in pubs and gyms for a bit longer until the death rate really go down.

 

Guess people will have to take their own risks regarding visit vulnerable people but they cannot be locked up without seeing anyone for ever and the elderly won't stand for it too long. 

[st albans fox]

10 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

I think they wlll relax the general lockdown so more essential workers can go back but probably still have social distancing even in pubs and gyms for a bit longer until the death rate really go down.

 

Guess people will have to take their own risks regarding visit vulnerable people but they cannot be locked up without seeing anyone for ever and the elderly won't stand for it too long. 

It will be left to us to make choices - there will be guidance but how do you cope with the fact that you ‘killed granny’ ????.

[The Fox Covert]

Trump's comments about drinking and injecting bleach to stop coronavirus remind me of Jeremy Clarkson's comment that some Americans have started to mate with vegetables.

His chief medical advisor was sitting near to the podium when he spoke and her body language showed her recoiling with horror at his remarks.

[Mike Oxlong]

1 minute ago, The Fox Covert said:

Trump's comments about drinking and injecting bleach to stop coronavirus remind me of Jeremy Clarkson's comment that some Americans have started to mate with vegetables.

His chief medical advisor was sitting near to the podium when he spoke and her body language showed her recoiling with horror at his remarks.

This is almost certainly true although others have been doing it for longer 

[Super_horns]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It will be left to us to make choices - there will be guidance but how do you cope with the fact that you ‘killed granny’ ????.

That would be the worry and guess people would  precautions to protect  their loved ones.

 

Others might just not be that bothered sadly if they think the virus won't affect them.

 

[Crinklyfox]

12 minutes ago, Izzy said:

It's difficult because I guess these texts and letters are just advising us to stay indoors (for our own good obvs). There has to come a time (for our own sanity) where we're 'allowed' out again otherwise people will just go crazy.

 

It does make me smile a bit that I'm now categorized as 'high risk' and 'extremely vulnerable' but only just had this confirmed a month after lockdown (I wonder if they roll out this advice by age e.g. eldest first?)

 

For the last month I've been out jogging, walking and shopping but now I'm told I can't. Feels a bit 'locking the stable door after the horse has bolted' but there you go...

 

Enjoy your garden in the sunshine mate 

 

Apparently 40% of the populace designated as 'extremely vulnerable'  were missed in the first round of letters.  I received my letter in the second round which was nearly three weeks ago.  So on your theory of eldest first I must be a comparative youngster - thanks, you've made my day!

 

On a more serious note I believe that we have to critically examine which conditions should be included to designate someone as 'extremely vulnerable'.  Some data recently out of Italy on Covid-19 deaths in hospital revealed that 15% of patients dying had 'active cancer treatment' as a co-morbidity.  The UK advice appears to include people who are not currently receiving 'active' treatment which I take to be an immune system suppressing treatment such as chemotherapy; also, over 20% also had atrial fibrillation which does not appear to be a listed condition in the UK.

[st albans fox]

9 hours ago, Sampson said:

Far, far too early to post this kind of "I told you so" shit.

 

We're still at the very beginning of the pandemic, not approaching the end as some seem to think. And certainly not scientific- we can't know that until we understand more about the transmission of the virus outside hospital.

 

You can only analyse whether lockdown have been worth itt in several years time by comparing total excess mortality to the previous 5 years average.

 

It could turn out that all a too early lockdown does is kick the can down the road and countries who locked down earlier have to deal with a much higher peak once the virus comes back and cause many more needless deaths through economic hardships and deaths from other diseases and might mean more lockdown are needed in the future.

And there are definitely many factors at work as you say. It seems clear that a warm climate and humidity restricts the transmission of CV.  in cramped conditions such as Singapore’s immigrant worker dorms, it has transmitted strongly so it isn’t completely inhibited as those dorms are unlikely to be air conditioned. 
 

 But the ‘want it now’ attitude to everything means that we have to make judgements NOW and apportion blame accordingly............ it sucks 

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

That would be the worry and guess people would  precautions to protect  their loved ones.

 

Others might just not be that bothered sadly if they think the virus won't affect them.

 

And you know families ........ one sibling takes the responsible attitude whilst another doesn’t ...... can’t really lead to a good outcome .....

[filbertway]

What is the 2 meter rule for?

Is this something that works on the assumption that people purposefully sneeze and cough in the face of other people?

 

I cant see why else its really required.

 

If you walk past someone on the street and pass by with say 30cm between you. Whu is it more dangerous?

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, filbertway said:

What is the 2 meter rule for?

Is this something that works on the assumption that people purposefully sneeze and cough in the face of other people?

 

I cant see why else its really required.

 

If you walk past someone on the street and pass by with say 30cm between you. Whu is it more dangerous?

Breathing ..... speaking (with associated bits of spit - it happens)

people cough or sneeze and may not get the hand up in time 

 

It’s just about having a safe space around you .... further clearly better but would simply be unworkable in many situations 

 

[filbertway]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Breathing ..... speaking (with associated bits of spit - it happens)

people cough or sneeze and may not get the hand up in time 

 

It’s just about having a safe space around you .... further clearly better but would simply be unworkable in many situations 

 

I understand it would be useful in work if youre spending a long time with the same people.

 

I just dont get why people freak out if you pass them within 2 meters if you're just walking past them. I assume this is the "where possible" that the government tall about.

 

Whenever ive had to do it i just cloae my mouth, smile and give a nod. You know the type you do at work when youve already used "morning" once

 

I suppose im just getting frustrated with it all and certain people are annoying me more than they usually would

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

13 hours ago, st albans fox said:

That’s massively different to any other days .... has to be an anomoly.  Prior to today, the highest daily rate was 77.

That's still 1000 deaths a day equivalent though, the UK has never been that high. Frustrates me that all you ever see is reports that frames us as the nation coping the worst. It's impossible to benchmark everything equally to form that opinion. 

[Milo]

I could do with the tips/recycling centres opening, tbh.

 

Pretty easy to control on a one car in-one car out basis. 

 

And the council workers that sit in their sheds never come out anyway!