Corona Virus

[CosbehFox]

Government departments going around twitter discrediting journalists and their stories. Weird world we live in now. 
 

Released a whole blog arguing against Manchester Evening News article regards homeless people and effects on Covid 19

 

Uncomfortable line for me 

[st albans fox]

23 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Government departments going around twitter discrediting journalists and their stories. Weird world we live in now. 
 

Released a whole blog arguing against Manchester Evening News article regards homeless people and effects on Covid 19

 

Uncomfortable line for me 

And yet they can’t find the manpower to protect the nation by purchasing and handing out cheap facemasks for commuters ....... sad reflection of where we are as a society ..... 

[Lionator]

If anybody wanted to know why 'test and trace' strategy is so vitally important. The South Korean superspreader nightclub guy became symptomatic so they traced and tested nearly 2000 people who were in the same vicinity as him. 100 tested positive so they tested and traced all of their contacts and the number went up to 161, they're now satisfied they've caught everyone linked to that cluster and have the lowest newly reported cases in a week today and hence their fire has been put out without any major disruption. 

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, Lionator said:

If anybody wanted to know why 'test and trace' strategy is so vitally important. The South Korean superspreader nightclub guy became symptomatic so they traced and tested nearly 2000 people who were in the same vicinity as him. 100 tested positive so they tested and traced all of their contacts and the number went up to 161, they're now satisfied they've caught everyone linked to that cluster and have the lowest newly reported cases in a week today and hence their fire has been put out without any major disruption. 

They only have to miss one person and there is a new cluster.

[Webbo]

I don't think test and trace is realistic with 65 million people. It seems like the virus is declining naturally now anyway

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Strokes said:

They only have to miss one person and there is a new cluster.

As is what happened here - Korea was down to a handful of cases per day until this one slipped the net.

 

However, what it has done has mitigated the damage that this cluster will do and could also do the same for subsequent clusters.

 

8 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I don't think test and trace is realistic with 65 million people. It seems like the virus is declining naturally now anyway

If that's the case then it might not be realistic with 52 million people either, but it is happening over here nevertheless.

[Stivo]

My household was chosen at random by ipsos Mori to take part in the first uk Covid-19 home antibody testing trial run by Imperial College.  At this stage they are just testing that the public can use the test kits - the instructions stress that the current tests are not yet accurate enough and so cannot be relied upon.

 

Anyway this morning we received our test kits.  They consist of a lancet, a pipette, a plastic test stick and a small bottle of buffer solution. We will give it a go later...

Edited 16 May 2020 by Stivo

[st albans fox]

23 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I don't think test and trace is realistic with 65 million people. It seems like the virus is declining naturally now anyway

not with so many daily  cases occurring but if the info that midweek there were estimated only 24 new cases daily in London, an app installed on 70%+ phones and having the public show responsibility to report symptoms plus random daily testing of a reasonable size could well keep a lid on it. Without a lockdown, it will definitely spread but we may be able to keep it in the background, especially through summer ......

[joachim1965]

27 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I don't think test and trace is realistic with 65 million people. It seems like the virus is declining naturally now anyway

Will it not start to do that anyway as we head into summer ?

[Guest Markyblue]

Don't know whether anybody has mentioned the training of covid dogs on here yet. I'm optimistic that bit by bit step by step we are going to master this virus.  These dogs at airports etc would be a huge help if the trials work.

[st albans fox]

Just now, joachim1965 said:

Will it not start to do that anyway as we head into summer ?

no one knows anything ......

 

it has been pretty good at multiplying in Brazil and Mexico .........but perhaps these initial peaks are unavoidable and will be large/suppressed as govt allows re lockdowns.

[Webbo]

10 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

Will it not start to do that anyway as we head into summer ?

Hopefully. 

[purpleronnie]

20 hours ago, RoboFox said:

Think it looks something like this: 

 

I realised that the government who have performed poorly IMO can't do anything about the amount of morons we seem to have here.  I rarely see anyone wearing a mask, on my street alone during on VE day it was clear no-one either understood or cared about the guidelines.  We had large groups all sitting together, some elderly some very young.  An elderly lady a few doors down to me who must be 80+ had a large amount of people sitting with her including one who walked past my house with a 'we're all in this together' T-shirt and written on the back 'keep 2 metres apart'....beggars belief.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

They only have to miss one person and there is a new cluster.

 

True - and I doubt that Covid19 will be completely eliminated anywhere any time soon.

 

But the Koreans are starting from a position where only a small number are infected. So, if the Korean system identifies MOST such people and MOST of their contacts, then they keep their infection rate very low, minimising casualties and pressure on health services and allowing life to return to something closer to normal without there being a high risk of casualties and disruption.

 

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

I don't think test and trace is realistic with 65 million people. It seems like the virus is declining naturally now anyway

 

Surely the infection rate is declining due to the lockdown, not just "naturally"?

 

And our infection rate isn't so very low yet: 3560 new infections identified yesterday v. 724 in Germany & 27 in S. Korea.....and we know there's an unknown number of unidentified cases, because we've not got a thorough testing regime.

 

I imagine that you're right that test-and-trace is unrealistic at the moment. But not because of our 65m population, more because of the relatively high number still infected - including many unidentified.

 

That's why it seems crazy to be opening up so early in the cycle and encouraging people to go back to workplaces and schools, to mingle more etc.

 

If and when the Koreans have further clusters, it'll be on a scale that won't get out of control due to low starting numbers and tight (though not infallible) control of new cases (18-35 per day for the past week v. 3000-4000+ per day for UK).

In contrast, we'd probably be unable to test-and-trace effectively with 3000+ new infections per day (how many potential contacts would that be?!).....yet we're relaxing and risking that figure rising again.

 

 absolutely seems to be the current approach......it's like asking people to run across the M1 (during normal times) in the hope they won't get run over.

Maintaining a proper lockdown for a few more weeks could bring the infection rate down to German or Korean levels and allow test-and-trace to be set up and operate effectively......potentially avoiding a much longer, more economically-disruptive lockdown if cases spike again (not to mention avoiding a large number of deaths).

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

True - and I doubt that Covid19 will be completely eliminated anywhere any time soon.

 

But the Koreans are starting from a position where only a small number are infected. So, if the Korean system identifies MOST such people and MOST of their contacts, then they keep their infection rate very low, minimising casualties and pressure on health services and allowing life to return to something closer to normal without there being a high risk of casualties and disruption.

 

 

Surely the infection rate is declining due to the lockdown, not just "naturally"?

 

And our infection rate isn't so very low yet: 3560 new infections identified yesterday v. 724 in Germany & 27 in S. Korea.....and we know there's an unknown number of unidentified cases, because we've not got a thorough testing regime.

 

I imagine that you're right that test-and-trace is unrealistic at the moment. But not because of our 65m population, more because of the relatively high number still infected - including many unidentified.

 

That's why it seems crazy to be opening up so early in the cycle and encouraging people to go back to workplaces and schools, to mingle more etc.

 

If and when the Koreans have further clusters, it'll be on a scale that won't get out of control due to low starting numbers and tight (though not infallible) control of new cases (18-35 per day for the past week v. 3000-4000+ per day for UK).

In contrast, we'd probably be unable to test-and-trace effectively with 3000+ new infections per day (how many potential contacts would that be?!).....yet we're relaxing and risking that figure rising again.

 

 absolutely seems to be the current approach......it's like asking people to run across the M1 (during normal times) in the hope they won't get run over.

Maintaining a proper lockdown for a few more weeks could bring the infection rate down to German or Korean levels and allow test-and-trace to be set up and operate effectively......potentially avoiding a much longer, more economically-disruptive lockdown if cases spike again (not to mention avoiding a large number of deaths).

on the basis that approx 1 in 5 infected will require hospital admission, we have approx 900/1000 per day admissions so surely that translates to approx 4000/5000 per day infections going back one/two weeks  ??

That probably backs up the 3500 infections you refer to as being current on a slow decline ...... I agree that another couple weeks lockdown to the end of June would have been better in this regard but govt decided that they could release the cork form the bottle sooner ...... it’s not so much the size of the changes, it’s the change of emphasis of the message which will no doubt be seen in images from across the country today 

 

numbers for England 

[urban.spaceman]

23 hours ago, RoboFox said:

Think it looks something like this: 

 

I AM A FREE

I AM NOT MAN,

A NUMBER 

 

[fox_up_north]

Absolutely sums up the kind of people we're dealing with

[String fellow]

Tbh, we're all numbers! The NHS identifies us by a number as do numerous other organisations.

[StanSP]

30 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I AM A FREE

I AM NOT MAN,

A NUMBER 

 

Wait, why is the person behind the copper, taking a picture, wearing a mask

 

Don't they see the irony of wearing it?! 'End lockdown, make us free, but let me protect myself in case I get COVID from being in a crowd'  

[Legend_in_blue]

30 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I AM A FREE

I AM NOT MAN,

A NUMBER 

 

 

This is why Boris' use of "common sense" is a dangerous message to be putting out.  

[Legend_in_blue]

 

Well, he isn't a free man tonight. 

 

[martyn]

19 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Tests in Iceland, where there is  a lot less people and therefore more accurate because they can test relatively more people suggest that 50% of the population are asymptotic. 

I think you're comparing apples with oranges. Spanish statistics were based from the results of antibody tests (i. e representative of those who've had the virus) 

 

 

Edited 16 May 2020 by martyn

[Guest Markyblue]

35 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

This is why Boris' use of "common sense" is a dangerous message to be putting out.  

Oh come on, we are a country of 67 million and there will always be a few dickheads.🙄

[urban.spaceman]

 

[ithuriel]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

I AM A FREE

I AM NOT MAN,

A NUMBER 

 

Well, if he catches it from this gathering and ends up fighting for his life in hospital, he will be a number and maybe even just a statistic.

Edited 16 May 2020 by ithuriel