Coronavirus Thread

[BenTheFox]

Today: 5,766 new cases and 231 new deaths. 

Compared to 2nd March: 6,391 new cases 343 deaths. 

[DennisNedry]

58 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's a joke isn't it? One positive is that the isolation is only 10 days now rather than the previous 14.

 

At what point do we start to question when we should be unlocking btw? We could be seeing less than 100 deaths a day everyday by the end of the month, with some days being close to single digit figures. That's if the schools don't start spreading it like wildfire again, but with most of the at risk population being vaccinated, there shouldn't be an issue hopefully.

This is my question. The motto is 'data not dates', but they haven't (at least to my knowledge) publicly set up what the data thresholds are for unlocking.

 

Less than 10,000 now in hospital with Covid, approximately a 75% drop from the January peak.

[RowlattsFox]

I'd rather stick to the dates given now, if it turns out to be overly cautious then so be it. The lower the numbers can be once we 'open' up the better. ..

 

I've seen on the news today Whitty and Valance worried about a third surge. Fair enough for them to be concerned, but if we do have another surge with millions vaccinated it makes you think what the hell the end game is. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Over 1.5million tests yesterday

[BenTheFox]

3 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

I'd rather stick to the dates given now, if it turns out to be overly cautious then so be it. The lower the numbers can be once we 'open' up the better. ..

 

I've seen on the news today Whitty and Valance worried about a third surge. Fair enough for them to be concerned, but if we do have another surge with millions vaccinated it makes you think what the hell the end game is. 

I saw that too. I understand that they look at it purely from a biological point of view and it's not their job to worry about other implications of the pandemic in terms of the economy, livelihoods etc, but as far as I'm concerned the third surge would have to really significant before we consider reintroducing tough restrictions. Otherwise where are we going with this?

[DennisNedry]

The vaccinations are proving more effective than expected, particularly at preventing serious illness and death. 

 

A large proportion of hospitalisations are in middle aged people (whereas deaths are concentrated in the old), so we really need the vaccine rollout to pick up sharpish to get everybody in those age ranges protected. Once all over 50s are done (plus 3 weeks for protection to build), I can't see any need for restrictions at all.

[Legend_in_blue]

32 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

I'd rather stick to the dates given now, if it turns out to be overly cautious then so be it. The lower the numbers can be once we 'open' up the better. ..

 

I've seen on the news today Whitty and Valance worried about a third surge. Fair enough for them to be concerned, but if we do have another surge with millions vaccinated it makes you think what the hell the end game is. 

On the face of it, I suspect the modelling being referred to is the 50000-70000 deaths in the Summer predicted by the oracle Ferguson.  This was the driver for the press conference when Bojo announced his dates but the modelling was never used in the slide presentation.  Too much doom and gloom when the picture Bojo painted was a bed of roses come June 21st.  

 

We need to bear in mind that the vast majority of restrictions are off the back of projections, all of which have proven to be completely false.  The fact that govt is basing policy on projections rather than actual data is worrying but it will not stop.  We're too far down the rabbit hole to u-turn on this now.  Unfortunate, but true.

 

Now the dust has settled and the first of the lockdown milestones is met, what a great time to strike doom and gloom once again.  

 

It's also worth bearing in mind the Imperial modelling (aka Ferguson modelling) did not allow for uptake in the vaccine or seasonal variation.  In other words, the modelling is flawed once again and we're just being set up once again to inevitably push these dates back rather than forwards,  

 

There will not be an end to this on June 21st.  No chance. 

[Corky]

1 hour ago, RowlattsFox said:

I'd rather stick to the dates given now, if it turns out to be overly cautious then so be it. The lower the numbers can be once we 'open' up the better. ..

 

I've seen on the news today Whitty and Valance worried about a third surge. Fair enough for them to be concerned, but if we do have another surge with millions vaccinated it makes you think what the hell the end game is. 

This is the last lockdown with real compliance, I reckon. Once everyone has been offered a first dose things will change mindset-wise.

[BenTheFox]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

On the face of it, I suspect the modelling being referred to is the 50000-70000 deaths in the Summer predicted by the oracle Ferguson.  This was the driver for the press conference when Bojo announced his dates but the modelling was never used in the slide presentation.  Too much doom and gloom when the picture Bojo painted was a bed of roses come June 21st.  

 

We need to bear in mind that the vast majority of restrictions are off the back of projections, all of which have proven to be completely false.  The fact that govt is basing policy on projections rather than actual data is worrying but it will not stop.  We're too far down the rabbit hole to u-turn on this now.  Unfortunate, but true.

 

Now the dust has settled and the first of the lockdown milestones is met, what a great time to strike doom and gloom once again.  

 

It's also worth bearing in mind the Imperial modelling (aka Ferguson modelling) did not allow for uptake in the vaccine or seasonal variation.  In other words, the modelling is flawed once again and we're just being set up once again to inevitably push these dates back rather than forwards,  

 

There will not be an end to this on June 21st.  No chance. 

I'm fully with you on that. My brother has rearranged his wedding to 3rd July hoping it will go ahead as normal. I've not said this to him and I'm very confident that he doesn't read this forum but thoughts are 'absolutely no chance'. 

[String fellow]

Imperial College sent me a questionnaire this week about being vaccinated, although Neil Ferguson's name wasn't mentioned. By playing ball, my prize is that they'll send a home testing kit. Tbh, that's more scary than having the jab. Poking things up one's nose beyond a certain point isn't my idea of fun!

[OrielCaziado]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

On the face of it, I suspect the modelling being referred to is the 50000-70000 deaths in the Summer predicted by the oracle Ferguson.  This was the driver for the press conference when Bojo announced his dates but the modelling was never used in the slide presentation.  Too much doom and gloom when the picture Bojo painted was a bed of roses come June 21st.  

 

We need to bear in mind that the vast majority of restrictions are off the back of projections, all of which have proven to be completely false.  The fact that govt is basing policy on projections rather than actual data is worrying but it will not stop.  We're too far down the rabbit hole to u-turn on this now.  Unfortunate, but true.

 

Now the dust has settled and the first of the lockdown milestones is met, what a great time to strike doom and gloom once again.  

 

It's also worth bearing in mind the Imperial modelling (aka Ferguson modelling) did not allow for uptake in the vaccine or seasonal variation.  In other words, the modelling is flawed once again and we're just being set up once again to inevitably push these dates back rather than forwards,  

 

There will not be an end to this on June 21st.  No chance. 

I agree with you. I no longer know what the end game is and what figures they are actually requiring.  Long gone are the days of just easing the pressure of the NHS.  I personally think the entire Western World is run by people to scared to actually make the first move and to lift restrictions and to take any risk. I think everyone is watching each other. The problem is we as a Country are leading the way  Europe wise with vaccinations and should really be the Country to take the lead and make some positive decisions very soon. Israel was the place we were watching but I haven’t heard much lately. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Another thing I said a few weeks ago, it might turn out to be totally wrong, but I think they want us staying in the UK this summer to boost the UK economy rather than anywhere else.

[Soup]

16 minutes ago, OrielCaziado said:

I agree with you. I no longer know what the end game is and what figures they are actually requiring.  Long gone are the days of just easing the pressure of the NHS.  I personally think the entire Western World is run by people to scared to actually make the first move and to lift restrictions and to take any risk. I think everyone is watching each other. The problem is we as a Country are leading the way  Europe wise with vaccinations and should really be the Country to take the lead and make some positive decisions very soon. Israel was the place we were watching but I haven’t heard much lately. 

Rocking the green pass apparently 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reopens-all-the-new-rules-from-march-7/

[FoxesDeb]

7 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Another thing I said a few weeks ago, it might turn out to be totally wrong, but I think they want us staying in the UK this summer to boost the UK economy rather than anywhere else.

I understand the thinking behind this, but plenty of folk ordinarily holiday in the UK anyway, and more will probably choose to holiday at home than would normally for a while. But the tourism industry in the UK relies heavily on foreign tourists holidaying here too, not to mention the tax revenue the airports must bring in when they are fully operational. I think it will be a balancing act between needing the foreign tourism money and keeping out any new variants.

 

On a very selfish note my kids are booked on flights in July to come out here to visit me, February and Easter were obviously cancelled so I haven't seen them since we moved in December and want them to be able to travel. The Spanish government seem to be undecided if they will allow tourists over the summer here, I've read that they want to wait until 70% of us are vaccinated, but once they realised that is likely to be 2027 they said they want to open up. Who knows what will happen...

[Costock_Fox]

28 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Another thing I said a few weeks ago, it might turn out to be totally wrong, but I think they want us staying in the UK this summer to boost the UK economy rather than anywhere else.

I thought this but the foreign holiday market is huge so I can’t see that.

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

 

 Last 5 mins of the video, sniffer dogs have been shown to have 94% accuracy in detecting Covid, we aren't using them in the UK though 

 What a great way to potentially get stadiums full again!

[WigstonWanderer]

22 hours ago, ozleicester said:

It has taken over two weeks for 0.4% of Australia to have their 1st vaccination

 

At this rate everyone should have their 2nd vaccine shot by sometime in 2060...

Yes it’s pretty shocking. I assume it will ramp up once locally produced AZ vaccine comes online. Doesn’t seem to be much of a sense of urgency though.

[st albans fox]

4 hours ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

 

 Last 5 mins of the video, sniffer dogs have been shown to have 94% accuracy in detecting Covid, we aren't using them in the UK though 

 What a great way to potentially get stadiums full again!

Assuming that the dogs are 100% effective at achieving the 94% amongst a huge crowd, that would mean at the moment, 10 people at sundays game being infectious ......could be sat next to you ........

1 in 200 is 160 people 

 

94% of the 160 is 150, leaving ten.  of course that’s pretty crude use of stats .........

 

[Alf Bentley]

6 hours ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

 

 sniffer dogs have been shown to have 94% accuracy in detecting Covid, we aren't using them in the UK though 

 

Perhaps we could transfer all those cadaver odour dogs that were working on the Madeleine McCann case. Get them on the job and sort it out? 

 

6 hours ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

 What a great way to potentially get stadiums full again!

 

I'm not sure that filling a stadium with 34,000 dogs would work out well. Could be a rough, ruff, ruff atmosphere - and how would it affect season ticket holders? 

 

Sorry, mate, I'm not having a go at you or your idea. It's just the mood I'm in - struggling to take anything seriously from Covid to Meghan, particularly after hearing that my brother has become an anti-vaxxer to protect his freedom against the World Stealth Organisation............Lord, give me some relief from all the madness (and I'm an atheist!). 

 

 

[Soup]

15 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

I understand the thinking behind this, but plenty of folk ordinarily holiday in the UK anyway, and more will probably choose to holiday at home than would normally for a while. But the tourism industry in the UK relies heavily on foreign tourists holidaying here too, not to mention the tax revenue the airports must bring in when they are fully operational. I think it will be a balancing act between needing the foreign tourism money and keeping out any new variants.

 

On a very selfish note my kids are booked on flights in July to come out here to visit me, February and Easter were obviously cancelled so I haven't seen them since we moved in December and want them to be able to travel. The Spanish government seem to be undecided if they will allow tourists over the summer here, I've read that they want to wait until 70% of us are vaccinated, but once they realised that is likely to be 2027 they said they want to open up. Who knows what will happen...

I've just read they've changed it to 30-40%.

https://www.thelocal.es/20210310/spain-plans-to-welcome-tourists-back-this-spring/

Edited 10 March 2021 by Soup

[FoxesDeb]

9 minutes ago, Soup said:

I've just read they've changed it to 30-40%.

https://www.thelocal.es/20210310/spain-plans-to-welcome-tourists-back-this-spring/

Thanks, that's brightened my day. A bit more light at the end of the tunnel

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

4 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Assuming that the dogs are 100% effective at achieving the 94% amongst a huge crowd, that would mean at the moment, 10 people at sundays game being infectious ......could be sat next to you ........

1 in 200 is 160 people 

 

94% of the 160 is 150, leaving ten.  of course that’s pretty crude use of stats .........

 

As he says in the video though, if you have 2 dogs confirming a positive test it’s essentially a 100% diagnosis.

[foxfanazer]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Perhaps we could transfer all those cadaver odour dogs that were working on the Madeleine McCann case. Get them on the job and sort it out? 

 

 

I'm not sure that filling a stadium with 34,000 dogs would work out well. Could be a rough, ruff, ruff atmosphere - and how would it affect season ticket holders? 

 

Sorry, mate, I'm not having a go at you or your idea. It's just the mood I'm in - struggling to take anything seriously from Covid to Meghan, particularly after hearing that my brother has become an anti-vaxxer to protect his freedom against the World Stealth Organisation............Lord, give me some relief from all the madness (and I'm an atheist!). 

 

 

I think they should move the Kop to the labrador stand

[Leicester_Loyal]

11 hours ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

 

 Last 5 mins of the video, sniffer dogs have been shown to have 94% accuracy in detecting Covid, we aren't using them in the UK though 

 What a great way to potentially get stadiums full again!

Half the KP wouldn't get in, substance abuse is rife

 

Woke up in a really good mood today, just over 4 weeks until I can get my hair cut, get back in the gym and enjoy a beer watching the footy in a pub garden, just over 2 months until I can have a proper day sesh and be a scumbag and hopefully just over 3 months until we can enjoy Euro 2020/2021 without any restrictions, the pubs will be manic.

[Spudulike]

Someone really needs to remove that EU shovel for their own sakes. 

 

BBC News - Covid-19: UK hasn't banned export of vaccines, says PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56347716