Coronavirus Thread

[Paninistickers]

4 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

I'm guessing you park on double yellows and jump red traffic lights.

Lol..if you knew me I don't even jump amber.

 

Doesn't fit with my own moral code. Also likely to endanger another car user or pedestrian. Why would I want to do that?

 

 

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

Lol..if you knew me I don't even jump amber.

 

Doesn't fit with my own moral code. Also likely to endanger another car user or pedestrian. Why would I want to do that?

 

 

Double yellows it is then.😁

[ajthefox]

Is anyone really suggesting they're only making "essential travel" now?

 

The roads are as bad as ever and almost everything is open but the government are clearly fine with people living their lives pretty similarly to how they were before but with added sanitation, distancing and masks.

[Sampson]

I don't understand why our daily deaths are so much higher than Spain, Germany and France's despite a similar number of cases.

 

It's not like any nation has a lack of testing anymore.

 

Either there's a discrepancy in the way deaths are being recorded and we're recording deaths that other nations aren't or we're still getting thousands of cases either not being tested or coming back as false negatives.

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I don't understand why our daily deaths are so much higher than Spain, Germany and France's despite a similar number of cases.

 

It's not like any nation has a lack of testing anymore.

 

Either there's a discrepancy in the way deaths are being recorded and we're recording deaths that other nations aren't or we're still getting thousands of cases either not being tested or coming back as false negatives.

Or we're a nation of fatties. Which we are.

[Houdini Logic]

1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Or we're a nation of fatties. Which we are.

Beat me to it but 100% my conclusion too

[shailen]

3 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I don't understand why our daily deaths are so much higher than Spain, Germany and France's despite a similar number of cases.

 

It's not like any nation has a lack of testing anymore.

 

Either there's a discrepancy in the way deaths are being recorded and we're recording deaths that other nations aren't or we're still getting thousands of cases either not being tested or coming back as false negatives.

I think our government was the slowest to react to the incoming pandemic, rules weren't strict enough with the mandatory masks only coming in now, schools were kept open too long, etc.. Boris was totally reactive rather than proactive when in the early days we could see how it impacted Italy and could have stopped it spreading had we acted earlier. 

[Sampson]

11 minutes ago, shailen said:

I think our government was the slowest to react to the incoming pandemic, rules weren't strict enough with the mandatory masks only coming in now, schools were kept open too long, etc.. Boris was totally reactive rather than proactive when in the early days we could see how it impacted Italy and could have stopped it spreading had we acted earlier. 

I'm not disagreeing but all that's entirely irrelevant. I'm not talking about that in the past. I'm talking about now.

 

UK, France, Germany and Spain all have similar (Spain's is much higher in fact the past couple of weeks) number of daily cases. But our daily deaths continues to remain much higher as if 4 or 5 times more people who get it in the UK die of it than they do in the rest of Western Europe and I don't understand why.

 

Also saying "we're a nation of fatties" really doesn't explain it either. Our obesity levels might be slightly higher than the other major economies of Western Europe but nowhere near to the levels the inflated deaths per case ratio currently suggests. Neither is our age or economic or cultural make up *that* different.

 

That's why the numbers make no sense because the other large countries of Western Europe seem to have a much bigger difference between number of cases and number of deaths going on right now.

 

How can Spain or Germany keep having only 2 or 3 deaths a day whereas we average 70 when our daily case numbers continue to be similar?

Edited 28 July 2020 by Sampson

[Costock_Fox]

16 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I don't understand why our daily deaths are so much higher than Spain, Germany and France's despite a similar number of cases.

 

It's not like any nation has a lack of testing anymore.

 

Either there's a discrepancy in the way deaths are being recorded and we're recording deaths that other nations aren't or we're still getting thousands of cases either not being tested or coming back as false negatives.

Number of things, obesity being one I guess but probably more so is the fact that we record the death as Covid even if they tested positive 4 months ago and then died in a car crash.

[shailen]

3 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I'm not disagreeing but all that's entirely irrelevant. I'm not talking about that in the past. I'm talking about now.

 

UK, France, Germany and Spain all have similar (Spain's is much higher in fact the past couple of weeks) number of daily cases. But our daily deaths continues to remain much higher as if 4 or 5 times more people who get it in the UK die of it than they do in the rest of Western Europe and I don't understand why.

 

Also saying "we're a nation of fatties" really doesn't explain it either. Our obesity levels might be slightly higher than the other major economies of Western Europe but nowhere near to the levels the inflated deaths per case ratio currently suggests. Neither is our age or economic or cultural make up *that* different.

 

That's why the numbers make no sense because the other large countries of Western Europe seem to have a much bigger difference between number of cases and number of deaths going on right now.

 

How can Spain or Germany keep having only 2 or 3 deaths a day whereas we average 70 when our case numbers are similar per day?

Fair point, and it is an anomoly. Can only think either we have been more truthful in reporting deaths or there somehow are different strains of the virus, some more deadly than the others. 

[Sampson]

15 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Number of things, obesity being one I guess but probably more so is the fact that we record the death as Covid even if they tested positive 4 months ago and then died in a car crash.

It's definitely not obesity.

 

The anomaly is huge. It's clearly a statistical anomaly to do with testing or recording of deaths.

 

For reference. Here is the comparison of the current rolling 7 day averages:

 

UK - Cases: 677. Deaths: 64

Spain - Cases: 1,908. Deaths: 1

Germany - Cases: 556. Deaths: 4

France - Cases: 880. Deaths: 8

 

Lets say our population is 5% more obese maybe max. You'd need obesity levels to be about 900% higher to get those numbers of deaths per case.

 

Either we've still got a runaway virus going round which is 20 times worse than what's going on in continental Europe at the moment and we're not picking it up on our testing.

 

Or we're overwhelming recording non-covid deaths as covid deaths or other countries are overwhelmingly recording covid deaths as non-covid.

 

But something clearly doesn't add up in the data considering we're comparing similar Economic and cultural nations.

Edited 28 July 2020 by Sampson

[Houdini Logic]

16 minutes ago, Sampson said:

It's definitely not obesity.

 

The anomaly is huge. It's clearly a statistical anomaly to do with testing or recording of deaths.

 

For reference. Here is the comparison of the current rolling 7 day averages:

 

UK - Cases: 677. Deaths: 64

Spain - Cases: 1,908. Deaths: 1

Germany - Cases: 556. Deaths: 4

France - Cases: 880. Deaths: 8

 

Lets say our population is 5% more obese maybe max. You'd need obesity levels to be about 900% higher to get those numbers of deaths per case.

 

Either we've still got a runaway virus going round which is 20 times worse than what's going on in continental Europe at the moment and we're not picking it up on our testing.

 

Or we're overwhelming recording non-covid deaths as covid deaths or other countries are overwhelmingly recording covid deaths as non-covid.

 

But something clearly doesn't add up in the data considering we're comparing similar Economic and cultural nations.

The average person (not even the extreme) in the UK weighs over a stone more than the average person in countries like Italy and Germany. And obesity has been identified as having a significant effect on people's immune system.

 

So what makes you so certain it's 'definitely not obesity'? I'd be keen to know 

[Sampson]

25 minutes ago, Houdini Logic said:

The average person (not even the extreme) in the UK weighs over a stone more than the average person in countries like Italy and Germany. And obesity has been identified as having a significant effect on people's immune system.

 

So what makes you so certain it's 'definitely not obesity'? I'd be keen to know 

I've already said that - Because the anomaly is too large for it to be anything to do with the health of nations. It has to be a stastistical one.

 

The UK may be on average 1 stone more than Germany but we're not talking about 5% more cases resulting in deaths. We're talking approximately 1200% more cases to deaths.

 

Or according to this https://familyserviceshub.havering.gov.uk/kb5/havering/directory/advice.page?id=LRvqxjPc1TQ

 

Germany has 21% obesity levels and 56% overweight levels and the UK has 24% obesity levels and 60% overweight.

 

If Germany has 4 deaths from 556 cases on their obesity and overweight levels. From 677 cases with the UK's overweight and obese levels you'd stastically expect 5 or 6 deaths - not 64 - over 10 times as many.

 

It's about the difference between the virus having a 0.5% death rate and having a 6% death rate.

 

The difference in obesity lebels in the UK and Germany might change the death rate from 0.5% to 0.6% or something but nothing like this statistical anomaly. 

 

And bare in mind I'm doing 7 day average figures, not one-off days and these huge anomalies between UK and the other large Western European nations has been going on for about 2 months now.

Edited 28 July 2020 by Sampson

[zorro en españa]

59 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I don't understand why our daily deaths are so much higher than Spain, Germany and France's despite a similar number of cases.

 

It's not like any nation has a lack of testing anymore.

 

Either there's a discrepancy in the way deaths are being recorded and we're recording deaths that other nations aren't or we're still getting thousands of cases either not being tested or coming back as false negatives.

As I have previously said the three major categories for the rise in cases in Spain are: fruit/ veg pickers, factory workers, youth (via nightclubs).  I guess the first will be battle hardened (they are out in fields in 30c plus daily and, generally, live in dreadful housing) and, I guess I am saying, will have some strong built in resistance and will certainly not be obese.  The second - I have no real generalisation.  The third - unlikely to directly add to the numbers of fatalities.

 

What I can say about how Spain’s fatality figures is it HAS changed.  The daily figure you will see in worldometer tomorrow are deaths that have happened today Tuesday.  Should the death have happened at the weekend it will not show in the daily figure.  This was in a crass attempt to report deaths on the day they happened - for me it was an unnecessary change and has led to some dubiety on the figures.  The full total, therefore, may change more than the daily increment.

 

Let’s do a little test.  Close of play Tuesday (28 July) the number of fatalities is:

Spain - 28,436

France - 30,223

Germany - 9,207

UK - 45,878

Italy - 35,123

 

I will record the daily number of fatalities reported from these countries and update close of play next Tuesday.  I am not sure if Spain is the only country that is doing as I explained ..... I don’t think any of the others are by the way.

 

PS - we are clinging to the hope that the death rate does not rise.  As others have mentioned the lag between cases and fatalities has been seen on several occasions.  The last I looked (w/e 23/7) the number of ICU entries nationally was only 14 which is definitely manageable.

[Houdini Logic]

15 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I've already said that - Because the anomaly is too large for it to be anything to do with the health of nations. It has to be a stastistical one.

And it couldn't be both? Personally I think it's a mix of general population health, the diversity of each country and how each country records their data. I just find completely ruling out health aspects like obesity, which are clearly more prevalent in certain countries, strange  

[Sampson]

15 minutes ago, Houdini Logic said:

And it couldn't be both? Personally I think it's a mix of general population health, the diversity of each country and how each country records their data. I just find completely ruling out health aspects like obesity, which are clearly more prevalent in certain countries, strange  

No it absolutely couldn't be both with that sheer difference in stastical anomalies.

 

It's not strange at all. You're just completely ignoring what I keep saying about the sheer size of the stastistical anomaly.

 

We're not talking about a 2 or 3% change in the data here. We're talking about a 1200% change.

 

We're talking about data that shows Germany has got the seasonal flu in its borders and the UK has the bubonic plague in its borders if you look at the straight case to death rate.

 

It's a statistical certaintly that a 1200% higher case to death ratio is not being caused by having 3-4% more of the population being obese or overweight across millions of tests being carried out in both countries.

 

There has to be a huge statistical anomaly either in the UK missing hundreds of thousands of positive tests a week in comparison to Germany, Germany getting thousands of false positive tests a week or in the way deaths are being recorded.

Edited 28 July 2020 by Sampson

[Houdini Logic]

5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

No it absolutely couldn't be both with that sheer difference in stastical anomalies.

 

It's not strange at all. You're just completely ignoring what I keep saying about the sheer size of the stastistical anomaly.

 

We're not talking about a 2 or 3% change in the data here. We're talking about a 1200% change.

 

We're talking about data that shows Germany has got the seasonal flu in its borders and the UK has the bubonic plague in its borders if you look at the straight case to death rate.

 

It's a statistical certaintly that a 1200% higher case to death ratio is not being caused by having 3-4% more of the population being obese or overweight across millions of tests being carried out in both countries.

 

There has to be a huge statistical anomaly either in the UK missing hundreds of thousands of positive tests a week in comparison to Germany, Germany getting thousands of false positive tests a week or in the way deaths are being recorded.

OK cool. Have a good evening 

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53575964

 

Wow, people think you're untrustworthy on this topic, Don? How odd - I wonder what reasoning they might have for that?

 

The man has an ego so big and yet so fragile it rivals the Hindenburg. And we all know what happened there.

[Lionator]

7 hours ago, Sampson said:

There has to be a huge statistical anomaly either in the UK missing hundreds of thousands of positive tests a week in comparison to Germany, Germany getting thousands of false positive tests a week or in the way deaths are being recorded.

Anecdotal but a colleague's husband passed away in May from cancer and it was recorded as a covid death despite no covid test. The family had to fight to get the death certificate changed.

[joachim1965]

8 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Number of things, obesity being one I guess but probably more so is the fact that we record the death as Covid even if they tested positive 4 months ago and then died in a car crash.

 

[TheUltimateWinner]

12 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

 

Could be in relation to the fact that she had a test (like anyone does now going into hospital)?

 

Certainly doesn't indicate she was added to the number of those tested positive. I don't see why it would be in our countries interest to intentionally over report...

[joachim1965]

1 hour ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

Could be in relation to the fact that she had a test (like anyone does now going into hospital)?

 

Certainly doesn't indicate she was added to the number of those tested positive. I don't see why it would be in our countries interest to intentionally over report...

So are you saying everybody going into hospital for any reason is a suspected covid 19 case ?

[TheUltimateWinner]

36 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

So are you saying everybody going into hospital for any reason is a suspected covid 19 case ?

Anyone who goes into hospital is automatically tested for Covid 19... so would make sense something like that is listed on the 'diagnosis' part of the discharge summary as she will have either a positive or negative result.  The person posting it has cut off the rest of the document which I imagine gives context and doesn't fuel the conspiracy theory angle they're going for. 

[Kopic]

When my grandad died in June, he was tested for covid in the ambulance. At hospital, the doctor didn't know this but said there's no point testing him as he definitely has it, so put him in a covid ward with end of life care. He died, death certificate stated covid. Test from ambulance came back negative. We opted for a post mortem which showed zero evidence of covid in any part of his body. I imagine stuff like this/similar is happening a hell of a lot.

[StriderHiryu]

10 hours ago, Sampson said:

No it absolutely couldn't be both with that sheer difference in stastical anomalies.

 

It's not strange at all. You're just completely ignoring what I keep saying about the sheer size of the stastistical anomaly.

 

We're not talking about a 2 or 3% change in the data here. We're talking about a 1200% change.

 

We're talking about data that shows Germany has got the seasonal flu in its borders and the UK has the bubonic plague in its borders if you look at the straight case to death rate.

 

It's a statistical certaintly that a 1200% higher case to death ratio is not being caused by having 3-4% more of the population being obese or overweight across millions of tests being carried out in both countries.

 

There has to be a huge statistical anomaly either in the UK missing hundreds of thousands of positive tests a week in comparison to Germany, Germany getting thousands of false positive tests a week or in the way deaths are being recorded.

Isn't is just a case of lag between drop in cases and deaths? IE if someone gets Covid, if they die it's 14 days+ after they are admitted to hospital. So for that reason, though we might now have a similar number of new cases as European countries, because we've only got there now, we should expect to see a greater number of deaths than they do for a few weeks? The rest of Europe got on top of the pandemic much faster than we did.

 

I'm not saying that's the only reason, or even a reason at all, but that was my assumption.