Coronavirus Thread

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

Isn't is just a case of lag between drop in cases and deaths? IE if someone gets Covid, if they die it's 14 days+ after they are admitted to hospital. So for that reason, though we might now have a similar number of new cases as European countries, because we've only got there now, we should expect to see a greater number of deaths than they do for a few weeks? The rest of Europe got on top of the pandemic much faster than we did.

 

I'm not saying that's the only reason, or even a reason at all, but that was my assumption. 

No it's not to do with a lag on deaths. That might account for a week or two but this has been going on for a couple of months and our number of cases and deaths have been pretty steady for weeks now.

 

We're not going to suddenly drop to a rolling average of 5 or 6 deaths a day in the next week.

 

My gut feeling says we're over reporting deaths quite significantly and other countries are under reporting deaths quite significantly. Like some of the stories above anyone who is remotely considered to have covid has it on their death certificate even if they test negative. Whereas other countries are doing it for positive tests only where the cause of deaths is obviously primarily due covid.

Edited 29 July 2020 by Sampson

[Chrysalis]

I cant help but feel its tourists who have started spain's new rise? it seems to have coincided with the summer holiday period.

[TheUltimateWinner]

12 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I cant help but feel its tourists who have started spain's new rise? it seems to have coincided with the summer holiday period.

Maybe, but then if that’s the case why haven’t the Balearics or Canaries had serious outbreaks? 

[fuchsntf]

15 hours ago, z-layrex said:

Just got on train, woman has sat infront, mask hanging off one ear. 40 hours a week + in full ffp3 since Feb and these shitcunts can't wear a loose surgical for half an hour.

You should have twanged the mask on her ear,then tell her,her mask had slipped,while she was Sleeping...

 

[fuchsntf]

12 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Or we're a nation of fatties. Which we are.

I am so fat,that I am classified as a nation..!!!

Italians,Spanish,French,Germans have their own rolly-pollys,they just dont hang it on the post....every month..!!!

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Just returned from a shopping trip to ASDA, I wore my face mask but there were plenty of people in store without one, or some had masks but wore them below their chin, We Brits are just so selfishly dumb, I don’t want to wear one but I did, not sure why others can’t.

[WigstonWanderer]

7 hours ago, Sampson said:

No it's not to do with a lag on deaths. That might account for a week or two but this has been going on for a couple of months and our number of cases and deaths have been pretty steady for weeks now.

 

We're not going to suddenly drop to a rolling average of 5 or 6 deaths a day in the next week.

 

My gut feeling says we're over reporting deaths quite significantly and other countries are under reporting deaths quite significantly. Like some of the stories above anyone who is remotely considered to have covid has it on their death certificate even if they test negative. Whereas other countries are doing it for positive tests only where the cause of deaths is obviously primarily due covid.

I agree that these stats are anomalous, however the current rate of infections is pretty much irrelevant to the current death rate. Deaths are drawn from a cumulative pool of infected people and the size of this pool depends on the total number of people infected less those that have recovered. Neither the UK nor Spain seem to provide this information as far as I can tell, but Spain’s epidemic started earlier than the UK’s, so it might make sense that their deaths might peter out earlier.

 

Having said all that, I’m pretty sceptical about stats from most countries as they are all collected in different ways and mean different things. The only stat I might believe in is the excess death rate, but not every country seems to report up to date figures. The UK is one of the few that does, and I believe the latest figure is about 65k, which is reasonably consistent with the reported Covid 19 deaths. It is higher, but that is expected as it includes collateral damage.

Edited 29 July 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[TheUltimateWinner]

40 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Just returned from a shopping trip to ASDA, I wore my face mask but there were plenty of people in store without one, or some had masks but wore them below their chin, We Brits are just so selfishly dumb, I don’t want to wear one but I did, not sure why others can’t.

Unless you have a medical condition there's no reason at all not to wear a bit of fabric infront of your face. They aren't even asking for a mask, just a covering!

[Beechey]

Hospitalisations, ventilation usage and NHS deaths still decreasing despite a plateau in new cases. Indicates we're possibly now capturing more mild cases in the testing.

Edited 29 July 2020 by Beechey

[Paninistickers]

59 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Just returned from a shopping trip to ASDA, I wore my face mask but there were plenty of people in store without one, or some had masks but wore them below their chin, We Brits are just so selfishly dumb, I don’t want to wear one but I did, not sure why others can’t.

Just been out for my first shop in one. 

 

I quite enjoyed it. Now able to give members of the public my usual withering, patronising, disgusted, sneering look with my eyes....all with the added bonus of not being recognised as I do it

 

All hail the mask!

 

 

[z-layrex]

There was a large nursing protest in central London today over being excluded from the pay rise, as we had the 3 year deal in 2018, a deal which is actually a pay cut below inflation. No mention in the media. 

[Samilktray]

Anyone got any tips for wearing a mask with glasses minus the fogging? I’m whacking medical tape across the top of my mask at the minute but doing that 3 times a day at work is a bit annoying 

[Innovindil]

1 hour ago, Samilktray said:

Anyone got any tips for wearing a mask with glasses minus the fogging? I’m whacking medical tape across the top of my mask at the minute but doing that 3 times a day at work is a bit annoying 

Me and the missus both wear glasses, we ordered a set of 3 masks from here, pricey (think we paid £12) but they have this metal band bit around the nose so it can form to your face so they don't steam up your glasses, pretty comfortable too.

 

https://iskovital.com/collections/face-covers

 

 

[zorro en españa]

So the USA has gone past 150k fatalities.  It has also overtaken France with 465 deaths per million of the population having trailed it by 59 at the beginning of the month.  Sweden at 567 is the next European country - if USA catches it by end of August it is beyond comprehension the world impact.

 

I just don’t see enough evidence that they are taking it seriously, led from the top by a man who just wishes it away.  I repeat what I have said all along - tragic 🙁

[st albans fox]

4 hours ago, Samilktray said:

Anyone got any tips for wearing a mask with glasses minus the fogging? I’m whacking medical tape across the top of my mask at the minute but doing that 3 times a day at work is a bit annoying 

 

3 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Me and the missus both wear glasses, we ordered a set of 3 masks from here, pricey (think we paid £12) but they have this metal band bit around the nose so it can form to your face so they don't steam up your glasses, pretty comfortable too.

 

https://iskovital.com/collections/face-covers

 

Depends on the quality of the bendy thing in the part of the mask which goes across your nose.  If it’s good then you squeeze it to be flush across your nose and not much air escapes upwards to steam the glasses. If it’s crap then you cant get a good fit and that’s when your tape comes into play.  Even some of the cheap disposable 3 ply have decent bendy bits bus alas, no checks on quality means the race to the bottom on these means it’s impossible for you to know  when you buy.  I would think the medical disposable would be better in this regard as they have to meet certain industry requirements.......

 

many of the Etsy type home made fabric products look a bit meh in this aspect. 

[brucey]

 

 

 

Edited 30 July 2020 by brucey

[Sampson]

The UK absolutely should have locked down earlier. They miscalculated the continued impact social distancing would have after the initial lockdown.

 

Having said that, behavioural fatigue is has been clear as day a real thing - and in fact much worse than I expected it to be. Most people were sadly "over" social distancing about 6 weeks in. Most don't seem to give a **** about the virus anymore.

Edited 30 July 2020 by Sampson

[WigstonWanderer]

6 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The UK absolutely should have locked down earlier. They miscalculated the continued impact social distancing would have after the initial lockdown.

 

Having said that, behavioural fatigue is has been clear as day a real thing - and in fact much worse than I expected it to be. Most people were sadly "over" social distancing about 6 weeks in. Most don't seem to give a **** about the virus anymore.

Perhaps this is with hindsight, but a hard lockdown early on and closing borders to at least those countries infected, might have regained control quickly and avoided any fatigue issues anyway.

 

We seem to have fallen into the same trap here in Australia in Victoria. The temptation is to introduce minimal restrictions, see how it goes, then introduce more. The problem is that this leaves authorities constantly chasing the infection which then grows out of control and beyond the reach of a test and trace scheme. It also means the problem grows so large that the recovery period, once appropriate stricter measures are finally applied, is much longer and hits the economy proportionately harder.

[Chrysalis]

23 hours ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

Maybe, but then if that’s the case why haven’t the Balearics or Canaries had serious outbreaks? 

I would guess they dont get anywhere near the same level of tourists, but who knows.

[Chrysalis]

17 hours ago, Beechey said:

Hospitalisations, ventilation usage and NHS deaths still decreasing despite a plateau in new cases. Indicates we're possibly now capturing more mild cases in the testing.

Remember there will be time lag, and on top of that medical staff will be learning ways to improve care, so death rate should be improving over time.

[Paninistickers]

1 hour ago, brucey said:

 

 

 

Fatigue might not have a scientific basis, but was clearly evident from VE day onwards. 

 

Social distancing has all  but collapsed, apart from strangers. But strangers are bound to be distant anyway. 

 

Schools were/are closed, but that's totally futile. all the kids play out together. Holiday together. Sleepovers. 

 

Sports teams are back. 

 

And as for pubs, well from what I've seen you may as well pump intravenously covid in the veins. You'd be no more likely to get it.

 

 

 

 

[TheUltimateWinner]

32 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Fatigue might not have a scientific basis, but was clearly evident from VE day onwards. 

 

Social distancing has all  but collapsed, apart from strangers. But strangers are bound to be distant anyway. 

 

Schools were/are closed, but that's totally futile. all the kids play out together. Holiday together. Sleepovers. 

 

Sports teams are back. 

 

And as for pubs, well from what I've seen you may as well pump intravenously covid in the veins. You'd be no more likely to get it.

 

 

 

 

Been out two consecutive weekends with my partner and have noticed that some establishments are taking it seriously, some are just letting people do whatever the feck they want.

 

Very concerning.

 

What also is concerning is, on the second weekend I went out, I went back to two places I considered 'safe' and neither took my details. 

 

We do have a low level of virus circulating at the moment, I'd like to think test track and trace is keeping it suppressed. It's crucial we don't let it get out of hand again. Negligence by certain establishments is not going to help at all.

[Beechey]

59 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Remember there will be time lag, and on top of that medical staff will be learning ways to improve care, so death rate should be improving over time.

Time lag is not as bad with hospitalisations (which would appear only a few days after a rise in confirmed cases) when compared to the lag we see with deaths.

Indeed, the medical improvements are vital as well

Edited 30 July 2020 by Beechey

[Strokes]

On 27/07/2020 at 22:38, Legend_in_blue said:

I don't understand the logic of this quarantine window.

 

For example, lets say you go to Spain, possibly pick up the virus on your final day and then return home to the UK.

 

Surely taking a test after day 7 on return which comes back negative would allow quarantine to end?  Why don't they just suggest testing after 7 days, reducing quarantine by half?

 

It doesn't make any sense at all.  Maybe I'm missing something.

How long before you get test results?

[Innovindil]

48 minutes ago, Strokes said:

How long before you get test results?

Mine took 12 hours~

 

Was very impressed tbf.