Coronavirus Thread

[Nod.E]

8 minutes ago, Sampson said:

But we have masks, wfh and social distancing currently and cases have been rising again over the past 3 weeks or so. We went back over 700 cases a day on the rolling 7 day average today when it was 550 3 weeks ago - if it keeps rising at that rate even with these measures we'll be back at 10,000 cases a day again in November when the winter starts to kick in and it could easily accelerate from there.

 

Saying the numbers are *slightly* higher completely ignores exponential growth which happens as soon as your cases go up.

 

The government will have data Analyst on testing numbers and test and trace. They should easily be able to see the proportions of tests by the general population vs tests carried out via test and trace. You've got to be a bit of a conspiracy theory nut to think they dont have good evidence cases are genuinely rising in the area.

 

That's exactly the point as to why we have to reverse some measures and why we have to keep cases at a steady rate at the very least, if not a reducing one.

 

Spain's cases have shot through the roof the past week or two and now France's is starting to follow suit. We don't want the same thing to happen here and inatanoueous local restrictions to stop people leaving certain regions and local lockdowns are going to be the best way of stopping that.

Is it definitely a case of there being exponential growth though?

 

We've come out of a stage of prolonged, strict lockdown to a new phase of more relaxed guidelines. Should we be surprised that cases increased somewhat? I'd have thought that would've been expected. Isn't it possible that numbers might increase and then plateau?

 

Perhaps the new level of restrictions we have in place just keeps things bubbling away just under that 1 R number?

 

If that's not the case and you're saying we're in for exponential growth again then we better all lockdown fully again? Right?

 

Forgive me for thinking the data analysts haven't modelled all of this out. Because clearly, there is panic and plans are changing by the day.

[Sampson]

6 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Is it definitely a case of there being exponential growth though?

 

We've come out of a stage of prolonged, strict lockdown to a new phase of more relaxed guidelines. Should we be surprised that cases increased somewhat? I'd have thought that would've been expected. Isn't it possible that numbers might increase and then plateau?

 

Perhaps the new level of restrictions we have in place just keeps things bubbling away just under that 1 R number?

 

If that's not the case and you're saying we're in for exponential growth again then we better all lockdown fully again? Right?

 

Forgive me for thinking the data analysts haven't modelled all of this out. Because clearly, there is panic and plans are changing by the day.

Why should you expect to to come back and then bubble under again? If you're relaxing of mitigations bring the r number above 1 then they should be reversed asap. Of course they should.

 

No. We're not necessarily in full on exponential growth if we can stamp out local outbreaks before they reach that stage. The case rises across the country are due to local rises not nationwide ones yet, although they'll quickly spread across the country if we're not careful. It only takes a couple of people to go back to visit friends and family in another city and it's spread half way across the country again.

 

But its certainly a very likely possibility. I think the chances of us locking down again over winter are pretty high and by what z-layerex was saying the other day about the briefing NHS staff have been getting, it sounds like the government is very much expecting a second lockdown at this stage.

Edited 31 July 2020 by Sampson

[Nod.E]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Why should you expect to to come back and then bubble under again? If you're relaxing of mitigations bring the r number above 1 then they should be reversed asap. Of course they should.

 

No. We're not necessarily in full on exponential growth if we can stamp out local outbreaks before they reach that stage.

 

But its certainly a very likely possibility. I think the chances of us locking down again over winter are pretty high and by what z-layerex was saying the other day about the briefing NHS staff have been getting, it sounds like the government is very much expecting a second lockdown at this stage.

The problem with stamping out before we reach that stage is that in doing so, we won't know what the 'new normal' r rate is.

 

My point is that if we put every locality in lockdown after every little increase, we're in for a bumpy ride without even knowing if we need to put ourselves through a bumpy ride.

 

Hopefully the briefings were a case of preparing for the worst

 

I just can't get away from the fact we reached our peak off the back of night clubbing, stadium going, working, travelling, not wearing masks and generally walking head first into the thing. And even then the numbers really weren't that big in the grand scheme of things.

 

I'd like to think a winter of a more Covid-savvy world wouldn't require the lockdown we needed to counterbalance the time Covid had to spread freely.

[Sampson]

11 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

The problem with stamping out before we reach that stage is that in doing so, we won't know what the 'new normal' r rate is.

 

My point is that if we put every locality in lockdown after every little increase, we're in for a bumpy ride without even knowing if we need to put ourselves through a bumpy ride.

 

Hopefully the briefings were a case of preparing for the worst

 

I just can't get away from the fact we reached our peak off the back of night clubbing, stadium going, working, travelling, not wearing masks and generally walking head first into the thing. And even then the numbers really weren't that big in the grand scheme of things.

 

I'd like to think a winter of a more Covid-savvy world wouldn't require the lockdown we needed to counterbalance the time Covid had to spread freely.

The numbers *were* that bad because they meant the NHS had to cancel everything non-covid related to deal with it. That's what we have to avoid again.

 

Winter already increases capacity in the NHS as it is as all kinds of ailments are associated with colder weather.

 

No one knows whether the  virus will spread more in the winter but most viruses do. Cases rising to any degree in winter could be catastrophic. A slow rise now in the months leading up to it could easily lead to that too.

 

You're also concentrating too much on the death figures and not the cases. Even the "mild" version of covid you don't have to go into hospital for can be horrific stuff you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy that can permanently damage every organ in your body. There's athletic people in their 20s who used to go running every day and got it back in February who still feel permanently tired and get out of breath walking up the stairs 6 months later who got the "mild" version of it they didn't have to go in hospital for. It's not just like just catching the flu, covid can cause serious organ damage for many of those who survive it.

Edited 31 July 2020 by Sampson

[Nod.E]

12 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The numbers were that bad because they meant the NHS had to cancel everything non-covid related to deal with it. That's what we gave to avoid again.

Yes, sorry of course. However my point stands that that came about from Covid spreading freely. I think you're underestimating quite how much life is different now vs. before the first lockdown.

 

Quote

Winter already increases capacity in the NHS as it is as all kinds of ailments are associated with colder weather.

 

You're also concentrating too much on the death figures and not the cases. Even the "mild" version of covid you don't have to go into hospital for can be horrific stuff you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy that can permanently damage every organ in your body. There's athletic people in their 20s who used to go running every day and got it back in February who still feel permanently tired and get out of breath walking up the stairs who got the "mild" version of it they didn't have to go in hospital for. It's not just like just catching the flu.

I don't have the numbers in front of me and it's late, so apologies for a flimsy point, but from memory my reading around this was that such cases were extremely rare. And this is without even considering the countless hundreds of thousands or more cases that went under the radar due to how mild they were. We're almost certain, for instance, that my girlfriend had it around the peak. Very bad consistent cough, temperature, still has 'covid toes'. It was over in a week and she's fine.

 

In hindsight I can agree that the initial lockdown was necessary, but I'm sorry. Now that we have measures to avoid the same sort of scale of critical cases, I just can't shake the feeling that it needn't be the same critical cause for concern that it once was.

Edited 31 July 2020 by Nod.E

[z-layrex]

5 hours ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

I’ve sucked it up for 4 months

Easy to say if your livelihood and mortgage doesn’t depend on face to face public interactions!  
 

 

Yeah and there you are planning a big piss up with your mates. Why do you think areas are going back into lockdown? It is solely the fault of the populations living there.

[zorro en españa]

Here is the change in the numbers of active cases in the last month in the 10 states I have been looking at in the USA.  First figure 30th June, second figure 30th July
 

Texas - 79,955 up to 166,031

Florida - 125,011 up to 410,538

Pensylvania - 16,974 up to 25,276

Ohio - 36,444 down to 21,888

Georgia - 69,234 up to 148,277

Michigan - 13,436 up to 25,836

N Carolina - 18,483 up to 26,371

Arizona - 68,172 up to 144,814

Indiana - 8,308 up to 16,556

Tennessee - 15,306 up to 37,604

 

We all know it has got out of control in the States so I was surprised, and delighted, to see that one State can show a reduction.  What can be learnt here - is it population density, has there been a message change, is it the ability of the hospitals?  I ask this because, despite my interest, I was genuinely surprised.  
 

Some of the other figures are mind blowing though with seven showing an increase of around 100% with Florida in a terrible position.  The temperament of those trying to treat this daily must be at breaking point - we all need the hope of success, but for the hospitals involved it must truly feel like pushing water up a mountain.  Bless them

[Lionator]

5 hours ago, Sampson said:

Why should you expect to to come back and then bubble under again? If you're relaxing of mitigations bring the r number above 1 then they should be reversed asap. Of course they should.

 

No. We're not necessarily in full on exponential growth if we can stamp out local outbreaks before they reach that stage. The case rises across the country are due to local rises not nationwide ones yet, although they'll quickly spread across the country if we're not careful. It only takes a couple of people to go back to visit friends and family in another city and it's spread half way across the country again.

 

But its certainly a very likely possibility. I think the chances of us locking down again over winter are pretty high and by what z-layerex was saying the other day about the briefing NHS staff have been getting, it sounds like the government is very much expecting a second lockdown at this stage.

I just can't see it happening, the government who are led by the economy regardless of what they say, cannot afford to bailout billions once again by shutting everything down. Boris alluded to this in his 'nuclear deterrant' speech and the new French Prime Minister effectively ruled it out yesterday. 

 

But I agree the government must have a clear idea of where transmission is taking place through track and trace which certainly helps. Imperial modelling anticipates that it's going to simply come in smaller waves until a vaccine is found.  

 

On the subject of the vaccine, given the rate of transmission in Brazil, South Africa and the States, I still think we could see it rolled out as an emergency in November/December time as it's predicted to be 80%+ effective in preventing serious illness. We'll then have a more effective vaccine which will be introduced in 2021 as a more long term option (perhaps the Imperial or the French/German vaccine).

Edited 31 July 2020 by Lionator

[StanSP]

 

 

[Guest Fktf]

6 hours ago, Nod.E said:

The problem with stamping out before we reach that stage is that in doing so, we won't know what the 'new normal' r rate is.

 

My point is that if we put every locality in lockdown after every little increase, we're in for a bumpy ride without even knowing if we need to put ourselves through a bumpy ride.

 

Hopefully the briefings were a case of preparing for the worst

 

I just can't get away from the fact we reached our peak off the back of night clubbing, stadium going, working, travelling, not wearing masks and generally walking head first into the thing. And even then the numbers really weren't that big in the grand scheme of things.

 

I'd like to think a winter of a more Covid-savvy world wouldn't require the lockdown we needed to counterbalance the time Covid had to spread freely.

Take the bumpy ride from local lockdowns, so you know you've reduced the second peak, but never really know whether it was strictly necessary. Or don't do local lockdowns, accept an increased spread, and only know if local lockdowns would have been useful when we see the extent of the second peak. If everything is fine then great, but if case numbers are high then it's too late to do anything.

 

The decision here is political - and depends on your tolerance to risk. Given your sacrifice commemt in previous posts, I doubt we'll ever agree on what should be done.

 

(and I'm not trying to single you out here, plenty on here have voiced a similar view to you, it just isn't one I share).

[yorkie1999]

11 hours ago, Nod.E said:

You have to laugh at the London-bubbled-Government casually announcing a 'local lockdown' and listing 'Greater Manchester' alongside towns like Blackburn and Rossendale.

 

It's a whole fvcking county covering multiple cities and over 3 million people, and you just dropped it on a list and announced it at 9:30 on a Thursday night you bloody cretins.

 

This is the Covid equivalent of small print in a dodgy loan contract.

 

It'll get all the respect of a do not tumble dry label.

 

And I mean, good. Kind of. Lockdowns at this point are completely unnecessary so good, I'm glad it won't be followed. I just hate the way that they're misleading everyone by being 'seen to be' taking action. It shuts up those whining saying they're not doing enough while also putting them in a position to blame the plebs if things get ugly.

 

Also, you can meet your family if it's at a restaurant but not if it's in your house? Make sense of that one. It's just an absolute sh*t show this whole episode isn't it. 

Best analogy i've read.

[Nod.E]

4 hours ago, z-layrex said:

Yeah and there you are planning a big piss up with your mates. Why do you think areas are going back into lockdown? It is solely the fault of the populations living there.

That's such flawed logic. You think everyone in London has acted responsibly then?

[Beechey]

 

In the months to the end of Q2, nearly 20 years of Spanish economic development has been washed away.

[z-layrex]

37 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

That's such flawed logic. You think everyone in London has acted responsibly then?

Of course not, but the lockdowns are and will be caused by the people living in those respective areas. Not all the people obviously.

[MattFox]

Casinos ,Theaters and everything that was due to open tomorrow not happening now

[UniFox21]

Masks to be mandatory in cinemas, museums, galleries and places of worship. To be in law by August 8th

[bovril]

In the past 24 hours the following places have posted all-time record daily infection numbers:

India
Brazil
Colombia
Hong Kong
Australia
Ukraine

Poland
Japan
Morocco
Economic carnage in the US is currently worse than the great depression.

 

Buckle up. 

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, bovril said:

In the past 24 hours the following places have posted all-time record daily infection numbers:

India
Brazil
Colombia
Hong Kong
Australia
Ukraine

Poland
Japan
Morocco
Economic carnage in the US is currently worse than the great depression.

 

Buckle up. 

Interesting for all those who thought that lockdowns were unnecessary that the US, perhaps more than any other country, has done its best to ignore Covid as much as possible, yet its economy seems to be similarly affected with no end in sight.
 

There simply is no economic short cut in this mess by just letting things rip.

Edited 31 July 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Masks in shops already starting to wain when I went earlier. Whole groups not bothering, staff not saying anything. Give it a couple of weeks and no one will be doing it.

[z-layrex]

1 minute ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Masks in shops already starting to wain when I went earlier. Whole groups not bothering, staff not saying anything. Give it a couple of weeks and no one will be doing it.

Seen nothing but strict compliance here.

[Corky]

23 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Masks in shops already starting to wain when I went earlier. Whole groups not bothering, staff not saying anything. Give it a couple of weeks and no one will be doing it.

I do wonder, not that it is a real excuse, if the weather is playing a part today. Wearing a mask on a bus without air conditioning is pretty uncomfortable, walking round won't be pleasant.

 

 

[Thefox81]

1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Masks in shops already starting to wain when I went earlier. Whole groups not bothering, staff not saying anything. Give it a couple of weeks and no one will be doing it.

Went in Tescos at B Leys around 2ish. Did not see 1 person not wearing a mask. Everyone socially distancing. Made shopping there pretty decent rather than a chore

[Parafox]

17 hours ago, Sampson said:

Wow. No offense Nod.E, but you've not even locked down. You've just been told you can't meet more than one friend in the pub or in the garden and that's it. It might only last a couple of weeks just to get it down again.

 

And it's to try and stop an objectively rising trend (even with social distancing and masks currently in play our daily cases are continuing to rise) so it doesnt get too high so that we have to lockdown again over the winter if the NHS gets swamped again as @z-layrex and @Parafox will more than attest it did do in March. Which will lead to potentially 50,000 more excess cancer deaths alone as hospitals had to turn everything into a covid ward and couldn't even give essential care to people with serious long term diseases. Not to mention the pain of arthritis sufferers or people needing joint surgery now having to live months in seeing pain as their operations got put back during to the overwhelming nature of covid back in March.

 

All of which could very very easily happen again over the winter if we don't try and nip any rise in cases into the bud.

 

And you're acting like someone's trapped you in solitary confinement in a prison cell for no reason or something.

 

Talk about throwing the toys out the pram.

I'm dreading the winter pressures along with a rise in CV19. (NOT a Coventry postcode, BTW). We need to get numbers down now before it's too late. Knee-jerk responses to this are ineffectual and smack of complacency and the hope for a better tomorrow. The only way to get to a better tomorrow is to to tackle the problem today. The virus doesn't have a postcode restriction but those in the affected LE postcodes need to understand that there's a reason for the restrictions put in place. 

That said, surely the people going to the seaside need to take a look at themselves. Their likely travelling from inland towns and cities. They need to take a serious look at themselves. And I doubt they're all chavs from the council estates. 

[Legend_in_blue]

Hands, face, space, get a test.  

[Parafox]

6 hours ago, bovril said:

In the past 24 hours the following places have posted all-time record daily infection numbers:

India
Brazil
Colombia
Hong Kong
Australia
Ukraine

Poland
Japan
Morocco
Economic carnage in the US is currently worse than the great depression.

 

Buckle up. 

From what I understand, most of those countries have lagged behind Europe in both their infection rates and their response to it. Places like Hong Kong and japan are worrying though.