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47 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

One month ago there was 2000 cases a day, so the rolling monthly figure is -1072. There are currently 68 people on ventilators. 

Huh? No there wasn't. The cases were at 528 on 3rd July.

 

We havent been getting 2000 cases a day since 23rd May.

 

Amd that isn't what the rolling monthly figure means, you can't have a minus number.

 

But you're missing the point either way. Cases were dropping when society was less opened up.

 

It's not about comparing the number of cases today or the number of people on ventilators to the number of cases 2 and a half months ago when society was less opened up. It's about whether cases are rising or falling.

 

It's about fact cases are rising and the pace they are rising is accelerating. The fact that they change in the rolling 7 day average is accelerating is more worrying than the fact they're simply rising as it suggests the R number is above one and we could be starting exponential growth again.

 

Which suggests that the state society is in is likely unsustainable and we're going to have to go back on some of the things we've opened up. Especially as the weather will start to turn in the next 5 or 6 weeks as autumn approaches.

 

I'd be surprised at this point if pubs and restaurants are still open when the autumn comes.

Edited by Sampson
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The 7 day average of new cases is a good measure of the underlying trend as it eliminates possible “day of the week” patterns due to weekends, etc.

 

If UK testing stats are to be believed, they are achieving a rate of 1 positive case in about 180 tests. This is pretty good and compares with Australia before the Victoria outbreak. Victoria is now finding 1 case in about 50.

 

The number of tests per positive result is an import statistic that is rarely quoted for some reason. The higher the ratio, the more confidence you have that you are finding most of the cases.

 

Since the start of the pandemic, Australia has found on average 1 positive for every ~ 250 tests, though as mentioned, Victoria are now struggling to maintain this rate.
 

By contrast, according to a paper posted in this forum some time back, Leicester was at one time finding a positive case in every 3 or 4 tests! (unless I misunderstood). The USA has only managed about 12 tests on average per positive since the start of the pandemic, though their current rate seems to be up to about 20.

 

All of this depends on how reliable the quoted statistics are of course, and then there’s the “tests vs people tested” issue to muddy the waters somewhat.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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The main point which is not being made by the authorities is that opening up more requires just as much public consent as the lockdown did. It’s easy to distance when you’re at home. Now try and do it when you’re out and about!  They aren’t getting it across that a lack of consideration and concentration with restrictions relaxed will force them to be brought back in. 
 

young people especially need to have it rammed home to them that if they wan to see their granny/grandad/aunt/uncles (basically all relations over 65)  still alive at Xmas/new year then they need to act more responsibly ..... the images of n Italy which drove the consent to the initial lockdown are forgotten. This is a disease which ‘won’t affect me’ ....... my eldest lad is currently on a diet of pasta and cheese because everything else tastes like ‘sewage’...... and alcohol is also off the agenda for the same reason.  Maybe they won’t die but the young can still suffer and they will have a long life to suffer through !!!!

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17 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The main point which is not being made by the authorities is that opening up more requires just as much public consent as the lockdown did. It’s easy to distance when you’re at home. Now try and do it when you’re out and about!  They aren’t getting it across that a lack of consideration and concentration with restrictions relaxed will force them to be brought back in. 
 

young people especially need to have it rammed home to them that if they wan to see their granny/grandad/aunt/uncles (basically all relations over 65)  still alive at Xmas/new year then they need to act more responsibly ..... the images of n Italy which drove the consent to the initial lockdown are forgotten. This is a disease which ‘won’t affect me’ ....... my eldest lad is currently on a diet of pasta and cheese because everything else tastes like ‘sewage’...... and alcohol is also off the agenda for the same reason.  Maybe they won’t die but the young can still suffer and they will have a long life to suffer through !!!!

It’s not just the young though, some old bint in Aldi stood so close to me in the queue she was actually touching me. I try to be respectful of the older community but I did lose my temper with her.

2 metres does still apply with masks right?

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13 minutes ago, Strokes said:

It’s not just the young though, some old bint in Aldi stood so close to me in the queue she was actually touching me. I try to be respectful of the older community but I did lose my temper with her.

2 metres does still apply with masks right?

Well that’s also become a bit meh in the message .... if you can’t do 2 m then wear a mask - so people wearing a mask see the 2 m as being irrelevant when wearing one .... why can’t people appreciate that things aren’t black or white!!  Do whatever you possibly can at all times ...... that reduces risk ... it shouldn’t be difficult!!

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It's inevitable that cases are going to rise and rapidly as well, I think it will hop up and down now maybe for the next 6 - 12 months. A lot of people, even those who were the most stringent during the full lockdown, have reached the point of lockdown 'fatigue' and now they are experiencing the first bit of 'freedom' they've had in months, they are throwing all social distancing rules out of the window with family and friends. 

 

I definitely think now it's a case of look after yourself and your own. However looking at everyone on my Facebook, everyone else's social distancing and 1m+ plans have gone out of the window.

Edited by lcfc278
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I don't know whether it's just because I don't take a mental picture everytime someone breaks social distancing but I think generally people are still following the rules and keeping apart as much as possible. In my experience you get the odd person who momentarily forgets, or occassionaly a person who doesn't care but as I'm aware it's easy enough for me to stay away from them. 

 

They'll be exceptions of course, but I do think in general the majority of people are still doing what they can. 

 

It will be interesting to see how we on the north west coast fare over the next few weeks after half of those in lockdown areas headed to the coast this week. Interesting that so far no coastal towns have been on the areas of concern lists, not that I've seen anyway, given the amount of staycation trips have been going on in past few months. 

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13 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Repeat after me, Covid. C O V I D

My R keeps popping up.....

Besides I have created a new virus with After Effects it seems...but I am not 'crowing' about it...!!

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24 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Crowvid

Don t have to make it up...CORVID. is a family/Type of Bird...Crows,Jays,rooks & ravens. Relates to the form of their bills...but also offshoots within Corvus/corvidae

that bring differing characteristics...

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28 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

People are still trying to peddle that the PHE number is being artificially lowered to make the situation look better than it actually is. :S

who are the ONS? and why do their numbers differ from PHE?

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Could the source of the data be different one prior to autopsy one after? Old age used to be a massive killer right across the world but now we want to know the reason not just they were 90 it was going to happen one day.

Could it be the removal of those that have died not from covid although they have or have had covid in the past.

Edited by twoleftfeet
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21 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Re MPH I think the symptoms he had he didn’t really have a mild case to be fair. There is a study that’s been done via an app tracking people’s symptoms and anyone suffering hallucinations is in about the 5th bracket of seriousness and it sounds like he was lucky not to end up in hospital.
 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-clusters

Fascinating how people aren't capable of understanding that notable exceptions are just that.

 

Then again millions play the lottery because the odd person wins. Human nature I guess.

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17 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

I'm going to say my piece and then leave this thread alone, again. I'm 45. I'm fit, healthy, and my youngest child is 13. I have a condition which is routinely managed, if not it makes my blood 'sticky'. I have no side effects day to day, and I live my life just like your mum, sister, daughter, aunt. But every 12 weeks I go to Leicester general for about an hour, that's it. If I contract covid though I'm likely to die as it's been found to coagulate blood. My treatment has halted due to the strain on the NHS, so who knows, I could have a stroke or a heart attack any time but it wouldn't be recorded as covid related, I would just be one of the unrecorded deaths which people seem OK with. My death would be recorded as someone with underlying Health conditions, although pre covid it wasn't even a concern really. 

 

I expect, and had no reason to think otherwise, that I can expect the same life expectancy of everyone else. I enjoy my weekends away, my holidays, my job and I love LCFC to the full. In fact I've been a supporter since the 90s, and yes I stand up for the whole match and yes I sing. 

 

It really saddens me though that some people here are writing me off as either old, or someone who somehow can be sacrificed so that people younger than me can enjoy the freedom of going down the pub. 

 

It also really amazes me that people haven't grasped, or understood, the long term effects of covid even on people who are deemed young, healthy and fit. 

 

Seriously people, open your eyes. 

And you'd have a point if your death was guaranteed or highly likely.

 

Without knowing the ins and outs of your condition there are likely other diseases and illnesses that would cause complications, too.

 

People aren't going out and living their lives and 'sacrificing' your life. They're probably impacting your odds from say 5,000/1 to 4,500/1.

 

A life lived in fear isn't worth living, and pointing to extreme cases and constructing arguments based on those is wholly unscientific.

 

You'll be fine. Easy for me to say? Maybe. But seriously, if I've said it once I've said it a thousand times. Don't let a number in the thousands scare you. On face value the numbers appear large, but honestly, they're not.

 

If you cop it you'll be so very unlucky, much like if you died in a car accident. We all still drive cars, some of us not as well as others.

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7 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Fascinating how people aren't capable of understanding that notable exceptions are just that.

 

Then again millions play the lottery because the odd person wins. Human nature I guess.

Not really. There's roughly 5% who develop bad symptoms which is 1 in 20 people, that's still very high odds. And you probably have a lot more than 20 immediate friends or family members. Chances of 1 if not several of your friends and family getting severely ill if they catch it is very high.

 

Winning the lottery is 0.000002% or 1 in 45,000,000. Chances of you ever knowing anyone who wins the lottery is pretty slim to none.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Nod.E said:

And you'd have a point if your death was guaranteed or highly likely.

 

Without knowing the ins and outs of your condition there are likely other diseases and illnesses that would cause complications, too.

 

People aren't going out and living their lives and 'sacrificing' your life. They're probably impacting your odds from say 5,000/1 to 4,500/1.

 

A life lived in fear isn't worth living, and pointing to extreme cases and constructing arguments based on those is wholly unscientific.

 

You'll be fine. Easy for me to say? Maybe. But seriously, if I've said it once I've said it a thousand times. Don't let a number in the thousands scare you. On face value the numbers appear large, but honestly, they're not.

 

If you cop it you'll be so very unlucky, much like if you died in a car accident. We all still drive cars, some of us not as well as others.

Where are you getting 5,000/1 on?

 

The mortality rate is around 0.6%, the chance of getting severe symptoms which could lead to lifelong debilitating issues around 5% according to the WHO.

 

The UK has had around 60,000 deaths from approximately 5% or about 3.5million catching it.  Thats nowhere near 5000/1

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6 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Where are you getting 5,000/1 on?

 

The mortality rate is around 0.6%, the chance of getting severe symptoms which could lead to lifelong debilitating issues around 5% according to the WHO.

 

The UK has had around 60,000 deaths from approximately 5% or about 3.5million catching it.  Thats nowhere near 5000/1

I plucked it from thin air.

 

Many of those deaths are counted based on elderly that have had it and later passed on from natural causes. Many from missing appointments etc.

 

The long odds were aimed at Deb specifically, who wouldn't fit into those two categories if she caught the virus and passed away. None of us could accurately guess those odds. They'd be long, though.

 

And again, those numbers came from sleepwalking in to the pandemic. So even if you calculate backwards it's going to be way out.

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11 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

I plucked it from thin air.

 

Many of those deaths are counted based on elderly that have had it and later passed on from natural causes. Many from missing appointments etc.

 

The long odds were aimed at Deb specifically, who wouldn't fit into those two categories if she caught the virus and passed away. None of us could accurately guess those odds. They'd be long, though.

 

And again, those numbers came from sleepwalking in to the pandemic. So even if you calculate backwards it's going to be way out.

The 0.6% death rate was literally released yesterday based on very recent analysis and antibody tests by the WHO. It's not going to be way out at all.

 

I don't understand why you're so globally going against all global expert data just so you can make an excuse to wave away greater restrictions. It's so bizarre.

 

Much less when we've had z-layerex in here describing how horrible it was working in a covid ward in March and how it was people in their 40s and 50s who were coming into hospital in the main and taking up most of the hospital beds not elderly people already at death's door at all.

 

It absolutely isn't a case that it's all just people already in palliative care losing a couple of months of their life. Research has shown covid takes an average of 10 years off people's life and that's balanced against the people who were already at death's door.

 

I feel sorry for you because it sounds like only seeing several family members or friends get it which will change your mind and I wouldn't wish covid on anyone.

Edited by Sampson
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5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The 0.6% death rate was literally released yesterday based on very recent analysis and antibody tests by the WHO. It's not going to be way out at all.

 

I don't understand why you're so globally going against all global expert data just so you can make an excuse to wave away greater restrictions. It's so bizarre.

 

Much less when we've had z-layerex in here describing how horrible it was working in a covid ward in March and how it was people in their 40s and 50s who were coming into hospital in the main and taking up most of the hospital beds not elderly people already at death's door at all.

 

It absolutely isn't a case that it's all just people already in palliative care losing a couple of months of their life. Research has shown covid takes an average of 10 years off people's life and that's balanced against the people who were already at death's door.

 

I feel sorry for you because it sounds like only seeing several family members or friends get it which will change your mind and I wouldn't wish covid on anyone.

If you were to calculate the odds of somebody dying from the virus, you'd need not only the death rate but the chances of them actually catching the virus as well. That's the bit you're seemingly forgetting.

I wish you'd stop referencing the names of posters on here who work on the front line in your arguments. It doesn't add the prestige to your argument that you think it does. Yes, I'm aware of how horrible it must have been, but it takes nothing away from the broader picture. Next you'll be telling me to wrap my legs in cotton wool because it's a blood bath for those on the front line serving the country.

You seem to keep going on about my friends and family and that potentially being the point at which I might change my tune. We have literally had the biggest peak in Europe already and not only do I not have any friends or family that have had it or died from it, I don't even know of any family members of friends, of friends. And that's with a peak that, without night clubbing, working in offices, not wearing masks, not distancing etc etc. which we're not going to repeat before a vaccine is available. 

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I wonder what the number of infections avtually was at the peak in March. We were only testing hospitalised people. I cant even begin to imagine the numbers, wouldnt be surprised if it was 15/20 thousand a day though.

 

Given what we know now and testing availability there is no way a national lockdowm should be required. If it did happen were all screwed, forget covid. The country will be thrown into a depression.

 

I just keep hoping we start trying to deal with this smartly rather than emotionally. Make sure our short term solutions dont have negative long term effects.

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