2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, FoxinNotts said:

Last year, I could see the way it was going, early enough, and I resigned to the  fact that we would be Europa League. Tbh, this year I’m more optimistic. However, I would be genuinely happy with our season, if we finished 5th and because we have reached the cup final, this certainly softens the blow, should we finish fifth. The biggest issue is that we are in the top four all season, only to drop out at the last. But on the flip side of the coin, our targets at the start of the season are top six ✅ and cup finals ✅

The way last season finished I think many of us feared we struggle to make top 10, so 5th would be brilliant, if a little disappointing in view of how the season has actually gone to this point.

[Ric Flair]

Just now, WigstonWanderer said:

The way last season finished I think many of us feared we struggle to make top 10, so 5th would be brilliant, if a little disappointing in view of how the season has actually gone to this point.

I want at least 2 results from the last 4 and a good showing in the final. If that still doesn't get us top 4 and/or the FA Cup then so be it. 

[FoxOnWheels]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

I want at least 2 results from the last 4 and a good showing in the final. If that still doesn't get us top 4 and/or the FA Cup then so be it. 

This for me. You don’t get top 4 by default you have to be good enough and we have proven over 34 games that we are just need to prove it for 38

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Probably because Chelsea have a track record of performing when it matters. However, I agree the negativity is a bit too much over our side.

Not quite sure of that, there’s a complacency streak there even under Tuchel.
 

Brighton, West Brom, Leeds all opposition they dropped points to. Bit of a similarity to us in fact 

[Leicester_Loyal]

I'll only start to worry if we fail to beat Newcastle, I'm confident atm,

[KrefelderFox666]

37 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Not quite sure of that, there’s a complacency streak there even under Tuchel.
 

Brighton, West Brom, Leeds all opposition they dropped points to. Bit of a similarity to us in fact 

I was more referring to over a full season and in big knockout games, in particular finals. Fully aware they are capable of losing against anyone on any day. They are hard to beat though.

[MGLCFC]

Do people want Chelsea to progress tonight or not. Either result could benefit or hinder us. 

Perhaps if they stay in the competition, fatigue may set in?

 

[Simmo86]

Just now, MGLCFC said:

Do people want Chelsea to progress tonight or not. Either result could benefit or hinder us. 

Perhaps if they stay in the competition, fatigue may set in?

 

Get them out please

 

Just knocks the whole 4th doesn't get CL malarkey on the head

[filbertway]

20 minutes ago, MGLCFC said:

Do people want Chelsea to progress tonight or not. Either result could benefit or hinder us. 

Perhaps if they stay in the competition, fatigue may set in?

 

Interested to hear your thoughts behind this one considering the final is on 29th May

 

[MGLCFC]

3 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Interested to hear your thoughts behind this one considering the final is on 29th May

 

Perhaps not then (well I'll go for 'their minds on other things  )

[deanolegend1989]

Newcastle at home now is absolutely as close to a must win as you can get. If we fail to win, I really think we are very unlikely to do it.

Absolutely critical.

Weighing it all up after looking at everything, I think 66-67 is the grey area. 68+ will get it(if it doesn’t get it then we were unlucky).

65 or lower won’t get it nearly ever.

 

If I was told right now we got 66/67, would I take it? No. Why? Because for me I’d then assume we’re about 50/50 to be in the CL with that.

I think we need 68 to be acceptable and we’ve effectively ‘done our job’.

If we do our job and 2 teams pull off a special run then congratulations they deserve it.

What I will be fuming about is if we throw it away and get 66/67 or less and bend over for these teams.

Liverpool drew to Leeds and Newcastle at home. If they can get away with drawing 2 more games and still getting in because we can’t even win any of the last 5 league games, then I’m afraid we have bottled it and it’ll be a failure of a season for the 2nd time in a row. Throw in if we go on to lose the FA Cup final too, I cannot listen to ‘oh but it would still be a good season’ do me a favour, nonsense.

 

From these 4 games 5-7 points is a very reasonable and if anything maybe too ‘safe’ target. Even if we get just 5 points gets up to at least 68 points+ which gives us a great chance.

For 68 to not be enough:

Vs West Ham - West Ham need to win all 4 games. Even 3 wins 1 draw is not enough for them in this case.

Vs Liverpool - Have to win all 5. Even 4 wins 1 draw is not enough in this case.

Vs Spurs - Again they have to win all 4 to knick it. Including beating us. Again 3 wins 1 draw is not enough.

Vs Chelsea - They need at least 2 wins and 1 draw out of 4 to get 68. Seeing as they have Man City next and us, it’s not easy for them to get to 68 either!

 

We’d need not just one, but TWO of the above teams to go on great runs to get it. It won’t happen.

68 points will achieve CL 90%+ of the time and if offered 68 points right now I’d snap your hand off and take my chance.

 

So to put it like this, Newcastle is almost a must win game. Even the most optimistic fans would probably think we won’t get 68 if we fail to beat Newcastle. This really is arguably our biggest game since Bournemouth last season, have we got the balls we didn’t have then? We will see Friday. Make no mistake the pressure is on and it’s huge.

Last thing, West Ham as shown above by @Sunbury Fox have an incredible record vs none big 6, except? Newcastle did the double on them. Newcastle also did the double vs Everton, double drew vs Spurs and also double drew vs Liverpool! A team struggling most of the season, yet unbeaten in 8 games vs all our main threats. This will be an incredibly tough game.

We beat them in Jan but they had injuries and it was a tough slog. Saint maxim is a great talent and will cause similar problems to eze and zaha did vs Palace. Newcastle are a lot better defensively than Palace so this will be a proper test , even before the added huge pressure of failure on their minds and last seasons experiences.

If we ever can use the ‘1 time’ card, then this is it.

It’s almost like building a huge stack in poker and doing all the hard work, but then getting it all in for the lot vs the other big stack AA vs KK. All the hard work done up until this stage, but if we lose in this huge spot, it all goes to waste. This is the moments that matter and I’m more nervous than I was in the 15/16 run in.

 

Edited 5 May 2021 by deanolegend1989

[hackneyfox]

5 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

This is the moments that matter and I’m more nervous than I was in the 15/16 run in.

 

Not sure how that can be.

[deanolegend1989]

28 minutes ago, MGLCFC said:

Do people want Chelsea to progress tonight or not. Either result could benefit or hinder us. 

Perhaps if they stay in the competition, fatigue may set in?

 

100% progress. It’ll clog their fixture list up and surely puts more chance on us to win our first FA Cup!!

The scenario worry, won’t happen. Arsenal may not beat Villereal, even if they do they won’t beat Man Utd. Even if they do, Chelsea won’t beat Man City.

Even if they do, they are unlikely to drop out the top 4. Even if they do it’s unlikely we’d then also drop and allow one of the chasing pack(West Ham, Liverpool, Spurs) to get 3rd. It’s just so unprecedented that I’d take that 0.1% chance in reward for a much better edge to win an FA Cup!

It also would allow Kante to win a CL rather than Mahrez, which would be an extra silver lining for me!

Our hero would then of won 2 Premier leagues(including the biggest miracle in history), the FA Cup, The Europa League, The CL and the World Cup! Whilst getting Premier league player of the season doing it and being instrumental since Tuchel came in too! All doing it in 5 years!! That’s absolutely unbelievable really and would cement the fact that for me he’s arguably the greatest ever CDM.

[davieG]

If we drop out of the top 4 we'll be forever known as bottlers and if we thought this season was bad with the constant reference to our collapse last year well hide behind the sofa because it'll be torture.

 

Then there's the FA Cup lose that and we'll be record breakers  5 Finals 5 Defeats.

 

Hopefully the thought of these will motivate them to succeed. 

[hackneyfox]

7 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

100% progress. It’ll clog their fixture list up and surely puts more chance on us to win our first FA Cup!!

 

As mentioned above, the final is 29th May.

[HighPeakFox]

I'm not interested in arguing with any of you good people. However, I will remain proud of the team even if they fall short again. They have more bottle than I could dream of having. 

[SuperMike]

Definately want them to progess. There will inevitably be the thought, at the back if their minds, that they are in The Champions League final, and that may (or may not) push games against Little Leicester City a little way down the pecking order. Plus the notion that they are about to be crowned champions of europe is gonna go straight to the heads of the likes of Mount and Hudson-Odoi - who will start believing the hype that they are Charlton and Best reincarnated. Bunged up fixture list- maybe  not...

....but skewed priorities? Maybe??

[SixtiesFox]

19 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

Newcastle at home now is absolutely as close to a must win as you can get. If we fail to win, I really think we are very unlikely to do it.

Absolutely critical.

Weighing it all up after looking at everything, I think 66-67 is the grey area. 68+ will get it(if it doesn’t get it then we were unlucky).

65 or lower won’t get it nearly ever.

 

If I was told right now we got 66/67, would I take it? No. Why? Because for me I’d then assume we’re about 50/50 to be in the CL with that.

I think we need 68 to be acceptable and we’ve effectively ‘done our job’.

If we do our job and 2 teams pull off a special run then congratulations they deserve it.

What I will be fuming about is if we throw it away and get 66/67 or less and bend over for these teams.

Liverpool drew to Leeds and Newcastle at home. If they can get away with drawing 2 more games and still getting in because we can’t even win any of the last 5 league games, then I’m afraid we have bottled it and it’ll be a failure of a season for the 2nd time in a row. Throw in if we go on to lose the FA Cup final too, I cannot listen to ‘oh but it would still be a good season’ do me a favour, nonsense.

 

From these 4 games 5-7 points is a very reasonable and if anything maybe too ‘safe’ target. Even if we get just 5 points gets up to at least 68 points+ which gives us a great chance.

For 68 to not be enough:

Vs West Ham - West Ham need to win all 4 games. Even 3 wins 1 draw is not enough for them in this case.

Vs Liverpool - Have to win all 5. Even 4 wins 1 draw is not enough in this case.

Vs Spurs - Again they have to win all 4 to knick it. Including beating us. Again 3 wins 1 draw is not enough.

Vs Chelsea - They need at least 2 wins and 1 draw out of 4 to get 68. Seeing as they have Man City next and us, it’s not easy for them to get to 68 either!

 

We’d need not just one, but TWO of the above teams to go on great runs to get it. It won’t happen.

68 points will achieve CL 90%+ of the time and if offered 68 points right now I’d snap your hand off and take my chance.

 

So to put it like this, Newcastle is almost a must win game. Even the most optimistic fans would probably think we won’t get 68 if we fail to beat Newcastle. This really is arguably our biggest game since Bournemouth last season, have we got the balls we didn’t have then? We will see Friday. Make no mistake the pressure is on and it’s huge.

Last thing, West Ham as shown above by @Sunbury Fox have an incredible record vs none big 6, accept? Newcastle did the double on them. Newcastle also did the double vs Everton, double drew vs Spurs and also double drew vs Liverpool! A team struggling most of the season, yet unbeaten in 8 games vs all our main threats. This will be an incredibly tough game.

We beat them in Jan but they had injuries and it was a tough slog. Saint maxim is a great talent and will cause similar problems to eze and zaha did vs Palace. Newcastle are a lot better defensively than Palace so this will be a proper test , even before the added huge pressure of failure on their minds and last seasons experiences.

If we ever can use the ‘1 time’ card, then this is it.

It’s almost like building a huge stack in poker and doing all the hard work, but then getting it all in for the lot vs the other big stack AA vs KK. All the hard work done up until this stage, but if we lose in this huge spot, it all goes to waste. This is the moments that matter and I’m more nervous than I was in the 15/16 run in.

 

Spot on. As I've said numerous times momentum is everything. Win this game and we have it, lose and we heap pressure on ourselves. It is the defining game in our season. Last year it was the Bournemouth debacle. Had we won that, as we clearly should have done, we'd have made it. Hopefully history won't repeat. We passed up one opportunity against Southampton to grab the chasing pack by the throat, we cannot afford to pass up another.   

[SixtiesFox]

2 minutes ago, SuperMike said:

Definately want them to progess. There will inevitably be the thought, at the back if their minds, that they are in The Champions League final, and that may (or may not) push games against Little Leicester City a little way down the pecking order. Plus the notion that they are about to be crowned champions of europe is gonna go straight to the heads of the likes of Mount and Hudson-Odoi - who will start believing the hype that they are Charlton and Best reincarnated. Bunged up fixture list- maybe  not...

....but skewed priorities? Maybe??

"H" - so it was you all along!

[deanolegend1989]

36 minutes ago, hackneyfox said:

Not sure how that can be.

Not sure if everyone would agree but just speaking how I honestly felt.

on that run in I just felt super confident. The way we were playing and only 1 chasing us not 3/4.

We also had steel in that team, were strong through adversity(Arsenal away and West Ham at home). Poor decisions that cost us the wins(How Simpsons was a red because Giroud moaned louder or Morgan gets a joke of a pen on Ried) despite this rubbish it just felt like we WERNT going to let anything stop us from making history.

It also helped that the team below us were known to be bottlers and had a lot of hard fixtures that I remember at the time thinking ‘we have a strong back up plan’.

The only moment I got a bit nervous was the Swansea game without Vards but that instantly was blown away by cruising by 30 mins in,

We just had that ‘machine’ feel, we weren’t losing it! This team just feels like they have moments of collapsing like a pack of cards and they havnt proven or shown they can handle the pressure.

We will see how we cope on Friday but I’m sh*tting a brick.

 

32 minutes ago, davieG said:

If we drop out of the top 4 we'll be forever known as bottlers and if we thought this season was bad with the constant reference to our collapse last year well hide behind the sofa because it'll be torture.

 

Then there's the FA Cup lose that and we'll be record breakers  5 Finals 5 Defeats.

 

Hopefully the thought of these will motivate them to succeed. 

Exactly this!! We can’t throw it away from here and pretend that it’s still a good season because we got to a final and NEARLY got top 4!

Its excuses to hide disappointment. The reality is we failed last season and if we fail again it’ll be even worse.

Sometimes you have to to get hurt and not pretend there’s not an option to fail.

’If we drop out it’s not a fail because we did well to get there already’

’if we get relegated next season it’s ok because we did well the season before’

’we did well to make the final, wins a bonus’

Its just so small time.

Top 4 and an FA Cup or it’ll be a disappointment.

Neither and it’ll be an absolute disaster and a string of history of bottlers.

 

19 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I'm not interested in arguing with any of you good people. However, I will remain proud of the team even if they fall short again. They have more bottle than I could dream of having. 

No arguments. However they havnt yet shown any bottle. What they have shown is that they are a talented group of players who are where they should be. Now when things get tough do they have the bottle?

We will see over the next month or so whether this will be our 2nd greatest season or if it’ll be a shocking disappointment that is always remembered as a ‘what if’.

1996/97, 1999/2000 were less talented teams but showed the bottle, achieving the max they could with the talent they had.

This team have shown their talent but havnt achieved anything yet.
Unless they do they will have underachieved to the sum of their parts, in my opinion of course.

Maybe Im rating these players higher than they really are? I don’t know.
However my gut says this teams too good to ‘nearly’ get top 4 and ‘nearly’ win a cup and call that a success.

We’ll be up there with Spurs 2015-2019 and Newcastle 1993-1997 with the most talented teams to win nothing if we don’t.

 

13 minutes ago, SixtiesFox said:

Spot on. As I've said numerous times momentum is everything. Win this game and we have it, lose and we heap pressure on ourselves. It is the defining game in our season. Last year it was the Bournemouth debacle. Had we won that, as we clearly should have done, we'd have made it. Hopefully history won't repeat. We passed up one opportunity against Southampton to grab the chasing pack by the throat, we cannot afford to pass up another.   

I agree completely. The Southampton game felt like we had a hand on the prize and we blew it. It’s 1 game, it can happen. It’s not a case of jumping on the negativity but it’s another sign of this team not really having the bottle to maximise situations. It just always feels like in big moments , we leave 50% in the dressing room.

This game vs Newcastle is absolutely huge and hopefully they respond how I believe the talent they have can, but it’ll be far from easy and it’ll be far from pretty.

Edited 5 May 2021 by deanolegend1989

[moore_94]

Our game against Man Utd brought forward a day

 

 

[nnfox]

4 minutes ago, moore_94 said:

Our game against Man Utd brought forward a day

 

 

4 games in 8 days for them.

[Fox in the North]

Good for FA Cup final, but bad for fixture congestion 

[Webbo]

54 minutes ago, davieG said:

If we drop out of the top 4 we'll be forever known as bottlers and if we thought this season was bad with the constant reference to our collapse last year well hide behind the sofa because it'll be torture.

 

Then there's the FA Cup lose that and we'll be record breakers  5 Finals 5 Defeats.

 

Hopefully the thought of these will motivate them to succeed. 

Or put more pressure on them.

[turlo]

9 minutes ago, moore_94 said:

Our game against Man Utd brought forward a day

 

 

Lets hope they prioritise the Liverpool game and rest a few players against us. Surely they have to prioritise Liverpool as they've not beaten them in the league for years now and this will be their best chance of doing so for a while