KDH Brighton

[TheGoldenGod]

59 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Based on what? Other than twisting our arm to get it done. The guy has had a decent championship season and didn't exactly pull up that many trees in the premier league. 

Firstly he's having a FANTASTIC season in the championship as a midfielder might I add and will finish well in double figures for goals and assists. Secondly, have we suffered amnesia or was he very good in his breakout season in the PL after smashing it with Luton the season before? Judging a player based on last season is pointless cause many have proven they aren't complete duds but just part of an anomaly year.

 

Also Brighton, widely regarded as some of/if not the best recruiters in world football rate him extremely highly. Tells you everything you need to know 

[Qwerty]

14 hours ago, lcfc_forever said:

Doesn't sound like he has a source at the club, looks like he's getting all his info from Brighton/the broader industry. He repeated Brighton are working hard to sign him. 

 

Kept emphasising the PSR issue (suggests that the footballing community think we've got a significant problem there) and thinks £30m is not a 'wildly offensive offer' but has also heard we want £40m. He added there is a big gap in valuation. 

 

Sounded like he was a bit stung from fan reaction to his reporting of the story, came across as quite defensive which then made him sound patronising. 

 

He still thinks the deal is possible and 'in the balance' but no agreement yet and time is fast running out. 

I agree, he sounded really defensive and patronising, explaining to us all that if a player is very good, then other teams will want to buy him, and that we're desperate because we're close to breaking FFP rules.  It feels like his reputation is on the line now, which is another reason I really don't want us to sell KDH.  I'd hate for him to be smug!

[Daggers]

47 minutes ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Firstly he's having a FANTASTIC season in the championship as a midfielder might I add and will finish well in double figures for goals and assists. Secondly, have we suffered amnesia or was he very good in his breakout season in the PL after smashing it with Luton the season before? Judging a player based on last season is pointless cause many have proven they aren't complete duds but just part of an anomaly year.

 

Also Brighton, widely regarded as some of/if not the best recruiters in world football rate him extremely highly. Tells you everything you need to know 

It’s not often I read a post and go, that’s bang on that is. 
 

This is one of those posts. 👏 

[VinceNoir]

4 minutes ago, Daggers said:

It’s not often I read a post and go, that’s bang on that is. 
 

This is one of those posts. 👏 

It’s the post of a 5-star man that’s what it is. 

[mozartfox]

1 hour ago, Claudio Fannieri said:

Tottenham are looking at Conor Gallagher but I think he will be £50m + given they are clearly in the market for that type of midfielder, I do  wonder if Spurs end up having a look at KDH as he will be £15-20m cheaper, plus a chance to link back up with is best mate Madders. 
 

 

Would Danny Boy pay the record fee received ever for a Championship player?  I may be mistaken, but I thought he tried to sign Grealish for 25m when Villa were in our league and withdrew when the price quoted was higher.  He is after all as tight as a virgin Mosquito’s chuff.

[James_lcfc]

I'm happy for us to sell anyone, and would never begrudge the club cashing in.

 

It just has to be at the right time - Obviously this is subjective, but I think it's pretty clear that selling him now could be disastrous given how influential he's been so far.

 

Got to wait until the Summer.

[Babylon]

2 hours ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Firstly he's having a FANTASTIC season in the championship as a midfielder might I add and will finish well in double figures for goals and assists. Secondly, have we suffered amnesia or was he very good in his breakout season in the PL after smashing it with Luton the season before? Judging a player based on last season is pointless cause many have proven they aren't complete duds but just part of an anomaly year.

 

Also Brighton, widely regarded as some of/if not the best recruiters in world football rate him extremely highly. Tells you everything you need to know 

I don't think he's been any more than average in the premier league for us. Not just last season, but the season before also. 

 

And as for Brighton, they are meant to have bid £20m and don't fancy him at £30m, let alone thinking he's worth "way more than £30m". So those amazing recruiters seemingly agree with me.

[ClaphamFox]

18 minutes ago, Babylon said:

I don't think he's been any more than average in the premier league for us. Not just last season, but the season before also. 

 

And as for Brighton, they are meant to have bid £20m and don't fancy him at £30m, let alone thinking he's worth "way more than £30m". So those amazing recruiters seemingly agree with me.

Not necessarily. On the RL podcast last night, Ornstein basically said that Brighton likely offered £20m in the hope of getting KDH at a significantly discounted price because they thought we're in trouble with FFP and would welcome the money. It doesn't necessarily reflect what they think he's actually worth. And they probably couldn't afford £30m even if they wanted to pay that much. 

[Babylon]

13 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Not necessarily. On the RL podcast last night, Ornstein basically said that Brighton likely offered £20m in the hope of getting KDH at a significantly discounted price because they thought we're in trouble with FFP and would welcome the money. It doesn't necessarily reflect what they think he's actually worth. And they probably couldn't afford £30m even if they wanted to pay that much. 

A bit like how Brighton's interest doesn't necessarily signal he's worth way more than £30m?

[ClaphamFox]

1 minute ago, Babylon said:

A bit like how Brighton's interest doesn't necessarily signal he's worth way more than £30m?

Sure, but I was referring to how much he's worth to us at this present moment, given our position in the league and the risk that losing him could derail our promotion prospects. Whether £40m (or whatever) is a 'fair' price is neither here nor there - it's about how much we'd require to compensate us for the risk of letting him go. 

Anyway, I suspect this is all academic as I don't see him leaving during this window. I'm not so sure about whether we'd let him go in the summer, but that's a discussion for another time. 

[Babylon]

1 minute ago, ClaphamFox said:

Sure, but I was referring to how much he's worth to us at this present moment, given our position in the league and the risk that losing him could derail our promotion prospects. Whether £40m (or whatever) is a 'fair' price is neither here nor there - it's about how much we'd require to compensate us for the risk of letting him go. 

Anyway, I suspect this is all academic as I don't see him leaving during this window. I'm not so sure about whether we'd let him go in the summer, but that's a discussion for another time. 

I'm not criticising anyone, thinking he's worth that to us at this moment, at the end of the day any sale jeopardises promotion, which is worth far more. My only issue is that there are seemingly people who think the price of £40m reflects his ability, I don't think he's done anything to warrant that yet. 

[ealingfox]

Brighton more than anyone should know that only the sellers valuation matters. Can hardly complain about teams trying to mug them off when they're telling people they want over £100m for the likes of Moises Caicedo and Evan Ferguson

[TheGoldenGod]

2 minutes ago, Babylon said:

I'm not criticising anyone, thinking he's worth that to us at this moment, at the end of the day any sale jeopardises promotion, which is worth far more. My only issue is that there are seemingly people who think the price of £40m reflects his ability, I don't think he's done anything to warrant that yet. 

I don't think you're understanding this footballing economic climate though? You could just as easily argue Romeo Lavia, who was a championship player that finished rock bottom of the PL with Southampton last season, isn't worth close to £60m...yet Chelsea paid that! 

 

You could go down a rabbithole of asking the question "what is any player really worth?" yet the market dictates the value, and what's promotion worth to us? 100m? 150m?. KDH is the catalyst to everything we do on the pitch so he's worth to us what we decide, not what Brighton are willing to pay. Either way I'm sure we've scared them off which surely was our intention.

[Richmondfox]

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

Not necessarily. On the RL podcast last night, Ornstein basically said that Brighton likely offered £20m in the hope of getting KDH at a significantly discounted price because they thought we're in trouble with FFP and would welcome the money. It doesn't necessarily reflect what they think he's actually worth. And they probably couldn't afford £30m even if they wanted to pay that much. 

Ornstein said a lot of nothing on the podcast. The story changed every day to him just guessing what happened.  Imagine that from a journalist.
 

It felt as if he is just doing someone at Brighton a favour to disrupt. 

[SafewayFox]

4 hours ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Firstly he's having a FANTASTIC season in the championship as a midfielder might I add and will finish well in double figures for goals and assists. Secondly, have we suffered amnesia or was he very good in his breakout season in the PL after smashing it with Luton the season before? Judging a player based on last season is pointless cause many have proven they aren't complete duds but just part of an anomaly year.

 

Also Brighton, widely regarded as some of/if not the best recruiters in world football rate him extremely highly. Tells you everything you need to know 

Great post and user name, got to love a bit of ASIP 🙌🏻

[Gamble92]

4 hours ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Firstly he's having a FANTASTIC season in the championship as a midfielder might I add and will finish well in double figures for goals and assists. Secondly, have we suffered amnesia or was he very good in his breakout season in the PL after smashing it with Luton the season before? Judging a player based on last season is pointless cause many have proven they aren't complete duds but just part of an anomaly year.

 

Also Brighton, widely regarded as some of/if not the best recruiters in world football rate him extremely highly. Tells you everything you need to know 

You're wasting your time on here mate. If you come from our academy you're a lottery winner to these lot. 

[Walshy5]

20 hours ago, ClaphamFox said:

What deal?

The deal is dead!

[ClaphamFox]

5 minutes ago, Walshy5 said:

The deal is dead!

Long live the deal! 

[urban fox]

Starting tonight

[Scanchez]

1 hour ago, urban fox said:

Starting tonight

Scoring tonight!

[Tuna]

 

 

[lcfcbluearmy]

7 hours ago, Babylon said:

I'm not criticising anyone, thinking he's worth that to us at this moment, at the end of the day any sale jeopardises promotion, which is worth far more. My only issue is that there are seemingly people who think the price of £40m reflects his ability, I don't think he's done anything to warrant that yet. 

I think in a world where multiple players who are average at best go for over 50 million (Havertz, cucurella, Richarlison, Phillips) , djed spence went for £20 million and there is talk of Connor Gallagher going for 60-80 million KDH is eaisilly worth £40 million.

 

the market has changed and people need to reevaluate there evaluations of how much players are worth especially when it’s prem teams buying

[Chrysalis]

15 hours ago, Viva said:

Very different financial situation when you have been relegated. 

Brighton also havent made the same mistakes that got us relegated.

[Chrysalis]

14 hours ago, ClaphamFox said:

The fact that we're negotiating so hard over how to structure the pittance we're paying for Sensi seems to indicate that we currently have very little room for manoeuvre with regards to FFP. It does not mean that we need to sell now to avoid a breach - if we were in that position, as you say, we wouldn't have spent so much last summer. And we're clearly very reluctant to sell KDH, which is a strong indication that there is no need for us to do so.

We either right up to the edge on FFP or there is no change in the bank for the upfront payment.  I think both are equally possible.  It would be quite extraordinary for us to be so close to the FFP limit that even a hit of 500k on the annual accounts would take us over.  Also the 500k covert to purchase I think is almost equal to FFP of a 2m purchase because of amortisation (assuming 3-4 year contract), this actually makes cashflow look the more likely hindrance rather than FFP.  Whatever the reason there is something not right at the club of which I am in agreement with teapot and strider.

 

When we was selling one big asset per season and had replacements in place, that was mostly fine, it was a clear plan and seemingly executed well, now it just appears as chaos and trying to navigate day by day.  When I read strider's post on the list of players lost over only 2 seasons alone, it was a real eye opener, far from one a season and with almost all of them not replaced adequately, whilst not a single statement from the club on whats going on.

Edited 30 January 2024 by Chrysalis

[Sly]

The amount we fork out on players wages, will forever cause us more issues than transfer fees. 
 

That will get naturally trimmed on the 30th June.

 

The players (Vardy, Iheanacho, Ndidi, Vestergaard, Albrighton and Praet) that are out of contract at that time cost us around £335k per week. Factor that in, then it’s £17.4m per year off our wage bill. Naturally some of that will need to be replaced, however I don’t think we will aim to pay people in excess of £100k per week again any time soon. 
 

Smithies, Iversen and Casadei leaving have saved us £70k per week apparently! 
 

Then you consider that Soumare and Kristensen and Thomas were supposedly picking up close to £110k per week between them, I can see why they were shipped out on loan, with no hope of long term transfers, just to get the wages off the bill and help FFP.

We can’t be sailing that close to FFP though, as the signings of the likes of Winks, Coady, Mavididi and Hermenaen won’t exactly be on cheap wages either. 
 

The crazy thing, even now our wage bill Is reported as being higher than the Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley etc now! 

 

We made a serious amount of profit in the summer with player sales, with Maddison, Castagne and Barnes leaving. Even with amortization considered against Maddison’s and Castages initially transfer fees, we’d have likely made north of £65m profit on those alone. That’s more than our annual wage bill.
 

Consider we cut so much from our wage bill with the likes of Amartey, Soyuncu, Tielemans, Perez, Evans, Mendy and Bertrand leaving (£400k per week / £20.8m per year) and the fact we cut to meet FFP.
 

The reason we’ve used so many of our younger players as backup, or even first team this season, is that it really drags that wage bill down if we’ve not had to replace at a significantly higher amount in transfer fees and wages. 

 

KDH won’t be on a massive wage with us, like Vardy, Albrighton etc and I understand he is pure profit from an FFP point of view. However, for me it would make more sense to sell a Justin or Souttar who are potentially on higher wage and don’t really fit our system. Obviously the key is in other people wanting them! 

 

Long and short, every player has a price and we saw that in the summer. I just don’t see why, or how we’d want to sell KDH on the cheap this month. 
 

Couple that with me might actually need him to accommodate squad registration positions in future years for Premier league and dare I say it European competitions. 

Edited 31 January 2024 by Sly