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5 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Why did Summer Sundae discontinue? 

The following people all got offended:

 

- people who loved Spring, Autumn & Winter.

- people who didn't like that spelling of 'Sunday'

- people who preferred other days of the week other than Sunday

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This debate can’t be resolved ...

 

4 cups in front of you ...  3 have beans in and 1 doesn’t ...   if you pick the empty cup you lose ...  2 players ...  if one goes first and if he doesn’t lose the other goes next ..  and so on till one loses ...    what are the odds of winning if you compare going first to going second ...    help !!

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1 hour ago, Countryfox said:

 

This debate can’t be resolved ...

 

4 cups in front of you ...  3 have beans in and 1 doesn’t ...   if you pick the empty cup you lose ...  2 players ...  if one goes first and if he doesn’t lose the other goes next ..  and so on till one loses ...    what are the odds of winning if you compare going first to going second ...    help !!

If you pick up a cup with a bean in is it them removed from the game? If so, it's 50/50.

Edited by potter3
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If you go first you have a 3 in 4 chance of going through. The next person then picks which gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning (if he picks the empty cup). If he picks beans then you have two cups left meaning a 1 in 2 chance of winning. 

 

So going first is a probability of 3/4 x 1/3 x 1/2. Or 0.75 x 0.33 x 0.5 = 0.12375 (12.4%). 

 

Going second, the other person picks first giving you a 1 in 4 chance of winning (he picks empty cup). If not you then have a 2 in 3 chance of going through. He picks next which gives you a 1 in 2 chance of winning. If not you lose.

 

So second pick gives you a probability of 1/4 x 2/3 x 1/2. Or 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 = 0.825 (83%). 

 

So I reckon going second is best based on those percentages. But that's only assuming you get down to the last two cups every time. 

Edited by The Bear
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On 16/02/2019 at 17:11, murphy said:

If space-time has no physical properties, how can it be warped by matter?

Tough question. Though it has a fabric!

 

My guess would be something along the lines of that it has an inherent energy value at the quantum level (what they call zero point energy), and energy and matter are interchangeable so it can be affected that way. 

 

Kind of like light which has no mass but energy (and momentum) but can be bent by gravity (due to mass). 

 

Or because the Higgs Field interacts with mass maybe it is bent that way? The more the field interacts with mass the more space-time warps? 

 

That's a question for Neil DeGrasse Tyson!

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I found this too:

 

"As for what exactly in space is being bent, it's better to say what exactly is being altered, and the answer has to be space itself. Don't think of space as nothing. Einstein thought of it as some kind of gin-clear ghostly elastic thing, something that could be stressed. As to how energy does this, nobody knows for sure. But think of space as some kind of clear jelly with lines drawn through it. Now use a hypodermic needle to inject some more jelly in the middle. You will stress the surrounding jelly, creating something akin to a gravitational field. But notice that you injected jelly in jelly. There seems to be some deep connection between space and energy, it's as if at some deep fundamental level, they're the same damn thing."

 

Makes my brain hurt! 

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On 16/02/2019 at 17:11, murphy said:

If space-time has no physical properties, how can it be warped by matter?

 

 

20 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Tough question. Though it has a fabric!

 

My guess would be something along the lines of that it has an inherent energy value at the quantum level (what they call zero point energy), and energy and matter are interchangeable so it can be affected that way. 

 

Kind of like light which has no mass but energy (and momentum) but can be bent by gravity (due to mass). 

 

Or because the Higgs Field interacts with mass maybe it is bent that way? The more the field interacts with mass the more space-time warps? 

 

That's a question for Neil DeGrasse Tyson!

 

7 minutes ago, The Bear said:

I found this too:

 

"As for what exactly in space is being bent, it's better to say what exactly is being altered, and the answer has to be space itself. Don't think of space as nothing. Einstein thought of it as some kind of gin-clear ghostly elastic thing, something that could be stressed. As to how energy does this, nobody knows for sure. But think of space as some kind of clear jelly with lines drawn through it. Now use a hypodermic needle to inject some more jelly in the middle. You will stress the surrounding jelly, creating something akin to a gravitational field. But notice that you injected jelly in jelly. There seems to be some deep connection between space and energy, it's as if at some deep fundamental level, they're the same damn thing."

 

Makes my brain hurt! 

Pssst @leicsmac - you're needed here old chap :thumbup:

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Time is in the eye of the beholder. A human with the physical ability to observe his surroundings at the speed of light, will be looking at nothing but stillness. At that speed, time has zero effect on him whilst everything and everyone else around him are effected. 

 

Like those superhero movies, it's not that the super fast hero is fighting against the speed of the bad guy, but he's fighting against the effect of time. 

 

by the way, I don't get how the bad guy's head didn't turn to dust after getting punched with a fist almost as fast as light. 

 

“If Superman’s fist was 300g and he could move at 99% the speed of light, his punch would be cable of punching at an energy 190,000,000,000,000,000 joules. That’s quadrillion. That’s 45 megatons of TNT. That’s 2,800 times more powerful than Hiroshima. The temperature of his punch would be 143,999,999,999,540.3 degrees Fahrenheit.”

 

 

 

Imaging that much power condensed in that small of a space.

 

So, in conclusion, because he IS the fastest man alive, The Flash is the GOAT and in theory, should wipe the floor with any other superhero. but he will still get beat by some nobody to hype-up Superman's "saving the day" once again. Thanks, DC.

 

P.S: Superman is trash.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, potter3 said:

If you pick up a cup with a bean in is it them removed from the game? If so, it's 50/50.

 

Yes.

 

1 hour ago, The Bear said:

If you go first you have a 3 in 4 chance of going through. The next person then picks which gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning (if he picks the empty cup). If he picks beans then you have two cups left meaning a 1 in 2 chance of winning. 

 

So going first is a probability of 3/4 x 1/3 x 1/2. Or 0.75 x 0.33 x 0.5 = 0.12375 (12.4%). 

 

Going second, the other person picks first giving you a 1 in 4 chance of winning (he picks empty cup). If not you then have a 2 in 3 chance of going through. He picks next which gives you a 1 in 2 chance of winning. If not you lose.

 

So second pick gives you a probability of 1/4 x 2/3 x 1/2. Or 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 = 0.825 (83%). 

 

So I reckon going second is best based on those percentages. But that's only assuming you get down to the last two cups every time. 

So you have a 7 times better chance of winning if you go second ?? ...  sounds a bit too high ...   especially when Potts says its 50/50 ...   sorry still sounds like we haven't got the right answer yet ..  but Potts is close ..

 

 

Edited by Countryfox
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58 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Tough question. Though it has a fabric!

 

My guess would be something along the lines of that it has an inherent energy value at the quantum level (what they call zero point energy), and energy and matter are interchangeable so it can be affected that way. 

 

Kind of like light which has no mass but energy (and momentum) but can be bent by gravity (due to mass). 

 

Or because the Higgs Field interacts with mass maybe it is bent that way? The more the field interacts with mass the more space-time warps? 

 

That's a question for Neil DeGrasse Tyson!

 

46 minutes ago, The Bear said:

I found this too:

 

"As for what exactly in space is being bent, it's better to say what exactly is being altered, and the answer has to be space itself. Don't think of space as nothing. Einstein thought of it as some kind of gin-clear ghostly elastic thing, something that could be stressed. As to how energy does this, nobody knows for sure. But think of space as some kind of clear jelly with lines drawn through it. Now use a hypodermic needle to inject some more jelly in the middle. You will stress the surrounding jelly, creating something akin to a gravitational field. But notice that you injected jelly in jelly. There seems to be some deep connection between space and energy, it's as if at some deep fundamental level, they're the same damn thing."

 

Makes my brain hurt! 

 

Respect for taking this on Bear.  You've made a good stab at it but I can't find an answer to this anywhere.  I don't think anyone really knows.

 

I love the Brian Cox programmes but it seems that you need a philosopher's mind to really understand some of the concepts.  I don't not got one of them minds.  They often say that a massive object has the ability to warp spacetime and then just move on...

 

If you consider the visual aids that often accompanies the concept of spacetime, it is usually a 2D grid with a sphere in it which warps the grid like a cannonball on a tightly stretched tablecloth.  Always downwards.  If so then what occupies the space within the funnel shape created by the warp?  More spacetime?  Can't be because then it wouldn't be warped...

 

I have read that spacetime is simply a mathematical concept with no basis in reality, just to make the maths work... I dunno.  I think I need a lie down.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

Yes.

 

So you have a 7 times better chance of winning if you go second ?? ...  sounds a bit too high ...   especially when Potts says its 50/50 ...   sorry still sounds like we haven't got the right answer yet ..  but Potts is close ..

 

 

Going first you have the best chance surely, the last 2 count as 50/50, it doesn’t matter if you get to pick or not. So forget them. So it’s a simple 1 in 4 or 1 in 3. Obviously you go first.

 

Edited by Strokes
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3 hours ago, The Bear said:

If you go first you have a 3 in 4 chance of going through. The next person then picks which gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning (if he picks the empty cup). If he picks beans then you have two cups left meaning a 1 in 2 chance of winning. 

 

So going first is a probability of 3/4 x 1/3 x 1/2. Or 0.75 x 0.33 x 0.5 = 0.12375 (12.4%). 

 

Going second, the other person picks first giving you a 1 in 4 chance of winning (he picks empty cup). If not you then have a 2 in 3 chance of going through. He picks next which gives you a 1 in 2 chance of winning. If not you lose.

 

So second pick gives you a probability of 1/4 x 2/3 x 1/2. Or 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 = 0.825 (83%). 

 

So I reckon going second is best based on those percentages. But that's only assuming you get down to the last two cups every time. 

You've worked out the probability of winning in the most possible moves there. I'll have a look later.

 

Edit: Wait, no you haven't, I'm not really sure what you've done there :D 

Edited by Carl the Llama
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Always have been shit at probabilities but is it not 50/50?

 

1 round - player 1 has 0 chance of winning, player 2 has 1/4 chance

2 round - player 2 has 0 chance of winning, player 1 has 1/3 chance on that round with it being a 3/4 chance of getting to round 2 so 3/12 = 1/4 chance

3 round - both have a 1/2 chance and there is a 1/4+1/4=1/2  chance of getting to 3 rounds. Each have a 1/4 chance of winning in 3 rounds.

 

1/4+1/4 for each is 1/2

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5 hours ago, Countryfox said:

 

This debate can’t be resolved ...

 

4 cups in front of you ...  3 have beans in and 1 doesn’t ...   if you pick the empty cup you lose ...  2 players ...  if one goes first and if he doesn’t lose the other goes next ..  and so on till one loses ...    what are the odds of winning if you compare going first to going second ...    help !!

 

57 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Always have been shit at probabilities but is it not 50/50?

 

1 round - player 1 has 0 chance of winning, player 2 has 1/4 chance

2 round - player 2 has 0 chance of winning, player 1 has 1/3 chance on that round with it being a 3/4 chance of getting to round 2 so 3/12 = 1/4 chance

3 round - both have a 1/2 chance and there is a 1/4+1/4=1/2  chance of getting to 3 rounds. Each have a 1/4 chance of winning in 3 rounds.

 

1/4+1/4 for each is 1/2

Yeah that's how I see it.  Going first you'll win if:

-You pick beans, they pick empty (3/4 x 1/3) = 1/4

-You pick beans, they pick beans, you pick beans (3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2) = 1/4

 

Therefore the total probability of winning when you go first is 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2, so 50%

 

It goes without saying that the probability of winning when you go second is also 50%.

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@Countryfox

 

 

All I know is, if you go first, you have 75% chance of getting the cup with the bean. 2nd, it drops to 66.6 for him. And that's it, the one who picks 2nd can only pick once whilst the one who picks first, picks 2 times (assuming no one pick the empty cup yet).

 

Plus side of going second is, you sacrifice 8.3℅ (dropping from 75% to 66.6%) in your probability of getting the cup with the bean in exchange for a 25℅ chance of the other guy picking up the empty cup and you winning without doing anything.

 

4 hours ago, The Bear said:

If you go first you have a 3 in 4 chance of going through. 1-The next person then picks which gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning (if he picks the empty cup). If he picks beans then you have two cups left meaning a 1 in 2 chance of winning. 

 

So going first is a probability of 3/4 x 1/3 x 1/2. Or 0.75 x 0.33 x 0.5 = 0.12375 (12.4%). 

 

2-Going second, the other person picks first giving you a 1 in 4 chance of winning (he picks empty cup). If not you then have a 2 in 3 chance of going through. He picks next which gives you a 1 in 2 chance of winning. If not you lose.

 

3-So second pick gives you a probability of 1/4 x 2/3 x 1/2. Or 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 = 0.825 (83%). 

 

So I reckon going second is best based on those percentages. But that's only assuming you get down to the last two cups every time. 

1-If the other guy picks the empty cup, there is no need for any probabilities because the other guy already lost.

 

2- country said that the cup is removed after being picked up so it becomes 3 possibilities and not 4.

 

 

 

 

3-More like 0.0825(8.3℅). You go first so you have a bigger margin of error. And sadly, I don't think it's the right way to calculate this. I'm not good at math but it seems (to me at least) that those calculations maybe are more suited to dice-roll probabilities and maybe some card games. Anything with consecutive-related mathematics. Honestly, I don't get the logic behind those calculations especially in this scenario. I'm not really sure on this .

 

Plus, if the cups aren't taken after they are flipped and assuming that they get shuffled after every try, doesn't that mean the possibilities aren't changing? It's still 3 with a bean and 1 without. 75℅ is still the same. Maybe if we say "there are 4 cups, 1 with green beans, 1 with red beans, 1 with white beans, and one is empty. What are the chances of you pulling the red in your first try, the green in your second, no beans in the 3rd and the white in the 4th try?". Or " what are the chances of you not picking the empty cup after trying for 6 consecutive times)

 

Like Country said, the cup with the beans get removed so if you go first, you have a 75% chance of moving instead of the 66.6% you get from being second (assuming the first guy didn't pick the empty cup which automatically gives you the win). Now, if you both got the cup with the bean inside, it leaves 2 cups, one with, and one without the beans. So it's 50% chance for the guy who picked first. The only deference (assuming no one had the empty cup before) is that the one who picked first picks last.

 

 

IMO, because the cup gets removed and there is no consecutive order, it is turn-based, and the possibilities are very low, every try becomes its own insulated probability (or I'm just talking absolute nonsense here lol)

 

 

Waiting for someone who's better at maths than me to clear things up because it is too late and my head starting to heart.

 

Edited by the fox
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5 hours ago, Izzy said:

 

 

Pssst @leicsmac - you're needed here old chap :thumbup:

TBH I can't add much more to this one than Bear has already contributed - there's a good guess that there's something at the subatomic field that "represents" space-time and allows standard mass-energy to interact with it, the mere fact that it can be warped by mass-energy implies this is the case, but exactly what and how is a question must better minds than I have spent careers thinking about.

 

So, there probably is a physical property of some sort to space-time to allow it to be distorted by the fundamental forces...but that's only a probable, let alone exactly what such a property is and how exactly it interacts.

 

Subatomic physics does sometimes make the brain hurt when you're dealing with anything beyond classical matter interaction.

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Even more confusing is that more and more spacetime is being created all the time out of seemingly nothing, by the expansion of the universe. Which is being accelerated by dark energy. So it must have some physical properties at a fundamental level, which are born out of the energy pushing the universe apart. 

Edited by The Bear
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2 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Re th cups game - I did say that those probabilities only work when you get down to the last two cups a every time. 

I'm afraid they don't though:

 

The prob of winning on the last 2 is the same regardless of if you go first or second: 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 1/4

 

To work out CF's question you need to work out all possible winning conditions for each player, find the individual probability of each outcome, then add them together, which is what I've done above for player 1.

 

Going second the only other winning move besides that above is if p1 picks the empty cup straight off the bat (1/4) which adds to the odds of winning on the last round to make a total chance of winning of 1/4 + 1/4 = 50% for p2, which bears out my earlier post.

 

Also 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 is not 0.825, it's 0.0825, so that would be a chance to win of 8.25% if your methodology were correct.

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1 minute ago, Carl the Llama said:

I'm afraid they don't though:

 

The prob of winning on the last 2 is the same regardless of if you go first or second: 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 1/4

 

To work out CF's question you need to work out all possible winning conditions for each player, find the individual probability of each outcome, then add them together, which is what I've done above for player 1.

 

Going second the only other winning move besides that above is if p1 picks the empty cup straight off the bat (1/4) which adds to the odds of winning on the last round to make a total chance of winning of 1/4 + 1/4 = 50% for p2, which bears out my earlier post.

 

Also 0.25 x 0.66 x 0.5 is not 0.825, it's 0.0825, so that would be a chance to win of 8.25% if your methodology were correct.

Yeah, you tell him Carl.

 

Um yer bum, Bear :D

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Re the cups thing...   this argument raged all night in the pub and then carried on into the next day ...   money was involved and things got slightly heated ...  

 

This was the best answer, I think, but I still think its not absolutely right ..

 

Take 100 goes. Player 1 has a 1 in 4 chance of losing,  thats 25 chances of losing on his first pick.  (Remember you can only lose on your go not win until there are only 2 left). Player 2 has a 1 in 3 chance of losing, so after 75 goes that 25 chances of losing.  The final go is 50 50.  So, both players have an equal chance of losing (75) ...   so the chances of losing (and therefore winning) are the same if you go first or second.

 

Sounds right but I still think there is something being missed which would very slightly tilt the odds one way or the other ..... 

 

@potter3 @The Bear @the fox @Strokes @Carl the Llama @Kopfkino ...   thanks for you help so far ...  :thumbup:

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