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jonthefox

The "do they mean us?" thread

By jonthefox, in Leicester City Forum

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Jacnah

Jacnah

Posted
Posted

Ha ha, he'll wake up one morning to find his guitar missing from the side of his bed and a picture of some hooded youths holding it upside down outside a dive of a pub on Twitter.

  

That made me smile!!

Me to...but let's not call them 'youths', it gives to much credit and respect. I suggest, kids or even better children

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davieG

davieG

Posted
Posted
DAVID VOTOUPAL
Follow @Everton4life
DECEMBER 23, 2015
 

A week is a long time in the beautiful game, and the last one or two have been some of the most remarkable in English football for what seems like a generation.

Chelsea, the reigning Premier League champions who seemingly rewrote all the rules when Roman Abramovich took over, parted company with Jose Mourinho for a second time after one of the most spectacular collapses in the history of modern football. The Blues have already lost as many games as they did in the previous two seasons and are languishing just above the relegation zone. Rarely has such a situation happened, not for a very long time in a game where a crushing dominance by elite clubs would have consigned this prospect beyond the realms of possibility. The support Mourinho receives from Chelsea fans, in contrast to the reception many of the players received, tells its own story, as much about the club as it does for so much of modern football.

The last time this happened in England was in the 1992-93 campaign, when the previous season’s champions Leeds United finished in 17th, after failing to win a single away game. In fairness, Leeds that season lost just once at home and only 10 points separated Liverpool in sixth place from Crystal Palace in 20th. League football is littered with scenarios where relatively little can separate those doomed to relegation from European places or promotion/play-off spots. For instance, in the 2012-13 Championship season, only 14 points separated Peterborough United in 22nd (whose 54 points was a record for a relegated side) from Leicester City in sixth. Yet the following season the Foxes blitzed the Championship with the same core squad and the same manager (Nigel Pearson).

Today, it is Leicester City, whose preseason aim was one of comfortable survival and consolidation, that has taken advantage of the big clubs’ stuttering form to sit atop the pile. Their story has all the ingredients of a fairytale – a provincial club, players that grab headlines (Jamie Vardy) and a team that shows no fear of any reputations. The 2-1 win over Chelsea sealed the fate of Mourinho and this comes with no lack of irony, as Leicester’s manager Claudio Ranieri can be credited for the foundations on which the Chelsea of Abramovich and Mourinho has been built. His appointment by Leicester was sound enough at the start, although they are a club who have taken considerable gambles to get to where they are.

GettyImages-501318868.jpg

A defeat at the hands of the man he first replaced at Chelsea was the last straw for Mourinho

For starters, the owners backed Nigel Pearson and his team in face of pressure following a slump in form during 2012-13, rewarded by winning the Championship at a canter. Last season looked pretty dismal for Leicester as recently as March, despite not playing particularly badly. The final nine games delivered a survival miracle before the last day of the season and a 14th placed finish, albeit made easier by the sheer incompetence of the teams that finished below them.

Despite having never won the League Championship, Leicester’s history has seen numerous high points – the 20s, the Matt Gillies years of the 60s, Jimmy Bloomfield during the 70s, Gordon Milne in the 80s and the Martin O’Neill-era of the 90s. With two League Cups won under O’Neill (they had previously won it in 1964), Leicester appeared to be an example of  a club being able to compete with less resources in a Premier League where money was an ever-increasing factor. Yet the Foxes also became one of the poster boys for financial problems in football, after the hard-earned legacy of those years was squandered by Peter Taylor (associated with the signing of Ade Akinbiyi) and Dave Bassett, followed by an inexorable decline that led to them dropping into League One for the first time ever in 2008.

Will Leicester shock the world come May? Not only locally, but everyone else must surely now be alert to the very real possibility that the Foxes may not only be legitimate contenders for the Premier League crown, but also competitors in Europe next season. It is a throwback to the days when football, and not just in England, was a more open game despite the dominance of big city clubs. Recent years have shown signs that this gap can be bridged, not only with some spectacular FA Cup results, but also the successful establishment and consolidation of promoted clubs in the Premier League – such as Crystal Palace, Southampton, Stoke City, Swansea City and West Bromwich Albion. Most of these clubs have been soundly managed off the field, in stark contrast to the mess that some of the league’s current strugglers now find themselves in. This has been an era of seeming crushing dominance by the game’s ‘elite’ clubs not only in England, but in other major leagues including Spain, Italy and Germany. An era in which elite clubs and players seem more distant and disconnected from everyone else, most of all the fans, than ever before.

For this reason alone, Leicester’s current success is proving popular with football fans regardless of allegiances. The signs that the elite clubs of England may be overextending themselves, that some equilibrium can be restored and that the game’s so-called lesser lights can enjoy success in weaker periods for the bigger fish. What is happening at Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool to name a few is proving it to be the case. It is time for some introspection and for football to goback to what it should be. Could success for Leicester City by symbolic of something to that effect?

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fleckneymike

fleckneymike

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This is another interesting breakdown of the season so far

 

http://experimental361.com/2015/12/23/season-update-premier-league-23-dec-2015/

 

Ahead of the busy festive schedule, I thought that it was a good time to take another look at how each of the Premier League clubs are performing using my scatter graphics. These are explained here if you haven’t seen them before.

Shot dominance

First of all, here is how the number of shots taken by each club compares with those they face in return. The average number of shots taken per match is on the horizontal and the average number faced is on the vertical, so bottom right (take plenty, allow few in return) is good while top left (take few, allow plenty) is bad:

pl-att-def-2015-12-22.png?w=860

The two Manchester clubs have allowed almost identically few shots against them this season, but they’re poles apart up front. Man City have taken around six additional shots per match than Man Utd, with only five clubs troubling goalkeepers less frequently than the latter.

Despite their disappointing season, Liverpool have still tended to dominate matches this season, so perhaps there isn’t too much for Jurgen Klopp to fix.

Newcastle and West Brom look to have spent much of the season on the back foot this season, so it will be interesting to see whether they can remain clear of the relegation battle.

They may be flying high in sixth, but Crystal Palace have allowed more shots at their goal than anyone else. We’ll see how they’ve managed to stay in the top half a bit later on.

Attacking effectiveness

Now let’s look at attacking alone. The horizontal axis stays the same as in the graphic above, but now the vertical shows the average number of shots needed to score each league goal. Therefore bottom right is good (taking lots of shots and needing fewer efforts to convert) and top left is bad:

pl-att-eff-2015-12-22.png?w=860

Leicester‘s table-topping performance owes much to their attack, which has been the division’s most clinical so far; marginally more efficient than Everton‘s.

Both have been around twice as sharp as struggling Swansea‘s – the top flight’s most wasteful – despite taking a relatively similar number of shots at goal.

Three of the division’s most notably underachieving sides – Chelsea, Liverpool and Southampton – have all struggled to convert their chances this season, despite creating a healthy amount of them.

While West Brom and Newcastle don’t fashion many attempts at goal, they have both been better than average at converting them.

Defensive effectiveness

Next let’s look at the defensive situation – basically take the above chart and replace the word “taken” for “faced” on both axes. Now top left is good – facing fewer shots and able to soak up more per goal conceded – and bottom right is bad:

pl-def-eff-2015-12-22.png?w=860

We saw in the first graphic that Crystal Palace allow plenty of shots and we can see here that they – along with Stoke – have been incredibly effective at repelling them. It will be interesting to see whether they can sustain this over the entire season.

For a newly-promoted side, Bournemouth have allowed opponents impressively few shots – the fourth lowest total – but have found it incredibly difficult to keep them out. The average Premier League defence has soaked up an additional four efforts for each goal conceded.

While Man Utd and Man City – and also Liverpool – have allowed a similarly low number of attempts at their goal, the latter two have been no match for United at keeping them out.

Expected goals

Finally here’s an attempt at correcting the first graphic for the quality of chances created and allowed, using the same “expected goals” values that power my shot timelines (explained here). The reason for doing this is that the results tend to correlate more strongly with performance than when we treat all shots equally.

This won’t give as sophisticated results as some of the other Premier League expected goals models (which use more sophisticated levels of data), but hopefully it won’t be wildly different.

pl-exp-2015-12-221.png?w=860

The current two title favourites – Man City and Arsenal – look to be streets ahead of the competition here. While a handful of other sides are operating similarly prohibitive defences, none of these can simultaneously emulate their attacking performances.

We can see that Leicester are operating the next scariest attack (in terms of chance creation at least) but look relatively ordinary defensively. Therefore if their title charge does fizzle out it looks more likely that their defence will have let them down than their attack.

Despite allowing so many shots, the sum total of chances allowed by Crystal Palace looks relatively ordinary, suggesting that many of their opponents’ efforts have been from poor positions. A glance at the stats show that they have seen the division’s third highest percentage of shots from outside their penalty area (47%), have seen the lowest percentage of shots on target (24%) and have blocked the highest percentage of shots (35%), which all suggest an unusually focused defence.

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RonnieTodger

RonnieTodger

Posted
Posted (edited)

As if people that aren't 14 on some shitty Facebook banter group are still using "you have no rivals", as if it's based on anything else other than geography? Fair play to Palace though for hating a team literally hours away because of some mincy little spat in the 70s. 

Edited by RonnieTodger
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ajthefox

ajthefox

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Posted (edited)

Interesting analysis but more complicated than it needs to be. We've scored 6 more than Arsenal, 4 more than City and the only team to have scored in every game.

 

We have the best attack.

Edited by ajthefox
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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saw an article this evening about Michael Owen's predicted premier league table.

 

1) Chelsea

2) United

 

 

18) Bournemouth

19) Leicester

20) Watford

Edit: Obviously this is pre season but wouldn't put it past Owen to predict that now

Edited by daddylonglegs
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BoneDog

BoneDog

Posted
Posted

Did anyone see that "Vardy World Class?" thread on Digital Spy a few weeks ago? There's a few wally's on there. I was keeping an eye on it when he was totting up the goals for his consecutive Prem goals record and meant to sign up when he became a record breaker just to say aaaah stick that up your pipe and smoke it but I forgot.

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MC Prussian

MC Prussian

Posted
Posted (edited)

Don't normally look on opposing forums but had a look at Liverpool and was very impressed with their knowledge, balanced views and they are primarily very very complimentary about us, refreshing change!

 

Which forum was that?

 

I found this gem amongst a flurry of slightly ignorant posts:

 

 

liverpool need to believe that (1) we are liverpool (2) we have the better players and (3) we have home advantage, unfortunately none of this seems to matter at present.....time to bring back steve peters!

Golden.

 

http://forums.liverpoolfc.com/threads/380795-Liverpool-v-Leicester-Pre-Match-Thread/page6

Edited by MC Prussian
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Izzy

Izzy

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Posted

Don't normally look on opposing forums but had a look at Liverpool and was very impressed with their knowledge, balanced views and they are primarily very very complimentary about us, refreshing change!

I had a quick look at their pre match thread. First of all their forum layout is bog standard and similar to most others. Gotta say out forum is the bogs bollux and by far and away the best out there.

In terms of their fans, I thought they were quite pessimistic actually and gave us a bit of credit. It's still interesting how others see us as 'little Leicester' and expect our wheels to come off soon. A bit patronising but you'd expect that from a 'big' club I guess. Consensus seems they'll either get a reaction after Watford or capitulate again. I hope it's the latter...

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Richmondfox

Richmondfox

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I had a quick look at their pre match thread. First of all their forum layout is bog standard and similar to most others. Gotta say out forum is the bogs bollux and by far and away the best out there.

In terms of their fans, I thought they were quite pessimistic actually and gave us a bit of credit. It's still interesting how others see us as 'little Leicester' and expect our wheels to come off soon. A bit patronising but you'd expect that from a 'big' club I guess. Consensus seems they'll either get a reaction after Watford or capitulate again. I hope it's the latter...

 

They don't need to worry about our wheels falling off but their own which have already rolled off into the side of the road with no spare.

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Bluetintedspecs

Bluetintedspecs

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Posted

I had a quick look at their pre match thread. First of all their forum layout is bog standard and similar to most others. Gotta say out forum is the bogs bollux and by far and away the best out there.

In terms of their fans, I thought they were quite pessimistic actually and gave us a bit of credit. It's still interesting how others see us as 'little Leicester' and expect our wheels to come off soon. A bit patronising but you'd expect that from a 'big' club I guess. Consensus seems they'll either get a reaction after Watford or capitulate again. I hope it's the latter...

I looked at a designated Leicester thread and it was the content/opinion that interested me. Not so much little Leicester as great football and good to see, if not us hope they do it etc etc!

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Carl the Llama

Carl the Llama

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Posted

Doesn't look like it's been mentioned yet but the BBC actually released a HYS article which a) doesn't revolve around or at the very least contort itself to mention Man Utd and b) doesn't write Leicester off with no given explanation.

 

Is this Luke Reddy guy who wrote it new at the BBC?  He's definitely an improvement on king hack McNulty.

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