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sylofox

Premier League Thread 2018/19 stuff it in here.

By sylofox, in Leicester City Forum

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davieG

davieG

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https://talksport.com/football/418424/premier-league-table-expected-goals/

 

XG EXPLAINS Alternative Premier League table, based on expected goals
This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look, after four matches

By Billy Hawkins
4th September 2018, 9:13 am  Updated: 4th September 2018, 9:20 am
We are four games into the Premier League season and now have to take a break for the return of international football.

It has already proven to be a thrilling campaign, with, amazingly, THREE teams still retaining 100 per cent records – Liverpool, Chelsea and, to wide shock, Watford.


Manchester City have already dropped points and are playing catch up, while Arsenal and Manchester United are stuck in mid-table after shaky starts to the season.

West Ham have their own 100 per cent record – four losses from four – intact, and they are joined in the bottom three by Newcastle and Burnley, who appear to be suffering from a Europa League hangover.

But is the real table following expectation and do the stats say this is how the top flight SHOULD be shaping up?


Expected goals (xG) is a breakthrough football statistic that attempts to reveal the precise score of every game using the quality of chances created. If a team has a high xG but low goals scored they were wasteful, whereas a low xG but high goals scored suggests they are performing far better in front of goal than they should be.

Using expected goals, which you can learn more about here, and data from Understat, we present how the table should look after four games, according to the stats experts.

 

20. Huddersfield Town Real points = 2 | Expected points = 1.99 

 

19. Newcastle United Real points = 1 | Expected points = 2.85

 

18. West Ham United Real points = 0 | Expected points = 3.02

 

17. Crystal Palace Real points = 3 | Expected points = 3.49

 

16. Burnley Real points = 1 | Expected points = 3.77

 

15. Fulham Real points = 4 | Expected points = 3.77

 

14. Everton Real points = 6 | Expected points = 4.26

 

13. Leicester City Real points = 6 | Expected points = 4.35

 

12. Cardiff City Real points = 2 | Expected points = 4.40

 

11. Brighton and Hove Albion Real points = 4 | Expected points = 4.65

 

10. Arsenal Real points = 6 | Expected points = 5.62

 

9. Southampton Real points = 4 | Expected points = 5.63

 

8. Manchester United Real points = 6 | Expected points = 5.96

 

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers Real points = 5 | Expected points = 6.24

 

6. Watford Real points = 12 | Expected points = 6.92

 

5. Tottenham Hotspur Real points = 9 | Expected points = 7.59

 

4. Chelsea Real points = 12 | Expected points = 7.75

 

3. Bournemouth Real points = 7 | Expected points = 8.26

 

2. Liverpool Real points = 12 | Expected points = 9.83

 

1. Manchester City Real points = 10 | Expected points = 9.93

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sylofox

sylofox

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11 minutes ago, davieG said:

https://talksport.com/football/418424/premier-league-table-expected-goals/

 

XG EXPLAINS Alternative Premier League table, based on expected goals
This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look, after four matches

By Billy Hawkins
4th September 2018, 9:13 am  Updated: 4th September 2018, 9:20 am
We are four games into the Premier League season and now have to take a break for the return of international football.

It has already proven to be a thrilling campaign, with, amazingly, THREE teams still retaining 100 per cent records – Liverpool, Chelsea and, to wide shock, Watford.


Manchester City have already dropped points and are playing catch up, while Arsenal and Manchester United are stuck in mid-table after shaky starts to the season.

West Ham have their own 100 per cent record – four losses from four – intact, and they are joined in the bottom three by Newcastle and Burnley, who appear to be suffering from a Europa League hangover.

But is the real table following expectation and do the stats say this is how the top flight SHOULD be shaping up?


Expected goals (xG) is a breakthrough football statistic that attempts to reveal the precise score of every game using the quality of chances created. If a team has a high xG but low goals scored they were wasteful, whereas a low xG but high goals scored suggests they are performing far better in front of goal than they should be.

Using expected goals, which you can learn more about here, and data from Understat, we present how the table should look after four games, according to the stats experts.

 

20. Huddersfield Town Real points = 2 | Expected points = 1.99 

 

19. Newcastle United Real points = 1 | Expected points = 2.85

 

18. West Ham United Real points = 0 | Expected points = 3.02

 

17. Crystal Palace Real points = 3 | Expected points = 3.49

 

16. Burnley Real points = 1 | Expected points = 3.77

 

15. Fulham Real points = 4 | Expected points = 3.77

 

14. Everton Real points = 6 | Expected points = 4.26

 

13. Leicester City Real points = 6 | Expected points = 4.35

 

12. Cardiff City Real points = 2 | Expected points = 4.40

 

11. Brighton and Hove Albion Real points = 4 | Expected points = 4.65

 

10. Arsenal Real points = 6 | Expected points = 5.62

 

9. Southampton Real points = 4 | Expected points = 5.63

 

8. Manchester United Real points = 6 | Expected points = 5.96

 

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers Real points = 5 | Expected points = 6.24

 

6. Watford Real points = 12 | Expected points = 6.92

 

5. Tottenham Hotspur Real points = 9 | Expected points = 7.59

 

4. Chelsea Real points = 12 | Expected points = 7.75

 

3. Bournemouth Real points = 7 | Expected points = 8.26

 

2. Liverpool Real points = 12 | Expected points = 9.83

 

1. Manchester City Real points = 10 | Expected points = 9.93

Stats experts on talk bollox churn out more bollox lol lol

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

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Cooommmmmmmeeeee ooonnnnn.  Watforrrrrrrrrd..!!!!!!

 

I ain't a fan never will be...but if they keep a fair wind,have good fortune ,they will get my support (after Leicester). towards the EOS.....

Injury free,and fringe players will make the difference....

 

I don't see the title ,but top 4 could be in..!!!

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Xen

Xen

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Not getting the Watford hype, personally.

 

I won't take anything away from them for starting well, it's clearly a strong achievement and they're definitely playing good football. But it's not unheard of for a midtable side to have a brief run of form like they have. We won 5 games on the trot last season, including one vs Liverpool. Palace finished with a very strong last 7 games. The fact that Watfords run has happened at the start of the season is the only thing distinguishing them from those other runs of form.

 

They've faced Brighton who are terrible away from home, Burnley who at the time were still in Europe, and Crystal Palace who had a depleted back line. Spurs was a great result, admittedly. 3 of those matches have been at home.

 

They'll comfortably survive this season, and maybe get top half. Can't see them being in the top 6 at all after the 2nd international break though.

Edited by Xen
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Finnegan

Finnegan

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18 minutes ago, Xen said:

Not getting the Watford hype, personally.

 

I won't take anything away from them for starting well, it's clearly a strong achievement and they're definitely playing good football. But it's not unheard of for a midtable side to have a brief run of form like they have. We won 5 games on the trot last season, including one vs Liverpool. Palace finished with a very strong last 7 games. The fact that Watfords run has happened at the start of the season is the only thing distinguishing them from those other runs of form.

 

They've faced Brighton who are terrible away from home, Burnley who at the time were still in Europe, and Crystal Palace who had a depleted back line. Spurs was a great result, admittedly. 3 of those matches have been at home.

 

They'll comfortably survive this season, and maybe get top half. Can't see them being in the top 6 at all after the 2nd international break though.

 

Oh let's be honest, Watford will be 12th by October. The Tottenham result was great but they've otherwise just beaten run of the mill shit teams. 

 

They've got some massive clubs coming up, Arsenal United, Wolves. 

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

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Only in 2018 could people get this carried away over a team having won four games.

I remember Sheffield Wednesday being top after ten games once and no one even talked about them winning the league.

They are a decent side but they don't have anyone like Mahrez, Kante, Vardy etc that are World Class - they'll finish mid-table again.

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Nalis

Nalis

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2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Only in 2018 could people get this carried away over a team having won four games.

I remember Sheffield Wednesday being top after ten games once and no one even talked about them winning the league.

They are a decent side but they don't have anyone like Mahrez, Kante, Vardy etc that are World Class - they'll finish mid-table again.

Yeah Sheff Wed came to mind too when they won their first 4. Think they were 4/5 pts ahead of the rest too at one point.

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Langston

Langston

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5 hours ago, Koke said:

 

I remember that. 2-2 v Everton, 0-2 v Chelsea, 1-1 v Arsenal and 1-0 v Stoke.

 

This current Wolves and Watford sides are better than that Leicester team. I understand several of these players went on to win the league a year later but we did spend October to April bottom of the league that season. 

 

We played Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Dean Hammond  and Jeff Schlupp in midfield away to Chelsea, **** me lol

 

In the scenarios given though - Watford should be compared to our title winning side, and Wolves the side from 14/15.

 

No chance Watford are better than us in 15/16, absolutely no chance. Wouldn't mind them ruffling a few feathers, it'd be great for the division, but they'll fizzle out.

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Nalis

Nalis

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5 minutes ago, Langston said:

 

Out of curiosity, what makes Huddersfield "tinpot"?

 

 

Maybe the definition of a tinpot team to the bear are one who won numerous league titles before most of their fans were even born but spent most of their recent years outside the top flight.....

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Langston

Langston

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1 minute ago, SecretPro said:

To be fair, they clearly don't like making any financial investment, so they are a bit tin-pot.

 

They really look after their fans and are spending within their means.

 

Don't hugely buy into any idea that any club is "tinpot" regardless, I include Bournemouth in that despite the fact they've obviously been well bankrolled. You make your own history, and throwing that term around just seems entitled to me, the type of thing clubs living off past glories would churn out to compensate for the fact they're languishing below where they feel their "rightful place" is while smaller clubs like Bournemouth continue to finish comfortably in the top flight.

 

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The Doctor

The Doctor

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22 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Maybe the definition of a tinpot team to the bear are one who won numerous league titles before most of their fans were even born but spent most of their recent years outside the top flight.....

Man this forum needs to stop alluding to wolves in such transparent ways :whistle:

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Jattdogg

Jattdogg

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For all the banter they will lose the next 4 or 5 games and all will be forgotten.

 

Although any club who is not considered top 6 id be happy with winning outside of west ham and everton. Of course hope we win it lol

Edited by Jattdogg
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Footballwipe

Footballwipe

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I love the Totally Football Show podcast, but to be making Leicester-Watford comparisons four games into the season highlights just how ridiculous this is going to be nowadays. Last season it was Burnley being compared to us when they reached fourth during a midweek round (Before dropping out after the rest of the games were played on Wednesday...)

 

This season we're going with Watford just because they're on 12/12 just over 10% into the season. By all means if they're still floating around at Christmas, but the clamour and desperation to compare is just mind numbing.

 

I said earlier that I give them 100% credit for their start, but this kind of comparison tubthumping will only put me off, quickly.

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