What's in the news?

[EnderbyFox]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Ramsay MacDonald still holds biggest defeat.

 

She's bad, but this was a shitshow to inherit - Eden and McMillan are still worse imo.

Fair enough, I was going off this. 

 

 

[TheUltimateWinner]

 

If true then the VONC is practically dead already?

 

Such a shitshow all round

[Guest MattP]

Just now, EnderbyFox said:

Fair enough, I was going off this. 

 

 

I might be wrong. Andrew Neil just said on the BBC it was the biggest since the 1920's and I went with that. 

 

Might be a difference with numbers as more MP's now.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, TheUltimateWinner said:

 

If true then the VONC is practically dead already?

 

Such a shitshow all round

Corbyn will be delighted. 

 

The last thing he wants to inherit is this, it's a no win situation for any Prime Minister.

[Super_horns]

Even worse defeat than expected for May..

 

Where does that leave her ....

 

Out of a job?

[TheUltimateWinner]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Corbyn will be delighted. 

 

The last thing he wants to inherit is this, it's a no win situation for any Prime Minister.

Be interesting to see what his position will be afterwards, I doubt he wants to push for a second referendum (even though a lot of Labour voters will be wanting this).

[The Guvnor]

That is an incredible defeat, what can the EU possibly offer to overturn the vote. 

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, Super_horns said:

 

 

Where does that leave her ....

 

 

Further up the small river and with no oar ....    as the saying goes ...

[ealingfox]

Don't blame me, I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband 

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

This is the United Kingdom not Zimbabwe

How naive. Evidence based political science would beg to differ. It really doesn't matter where you are. 

 

Though such votes are portrayed as popular governance in its purest form, studies have found that they often actually subvert democracy rather than serve it. They tend to be volatile, turning not just on the merits of the decision but also on unrelated political swings or even, as may have happened in Colombia, vagaries of the weather.

 

As in the case of Brexit. voters based their decisions with relatively little information, forcing them to rely on disingenuous political messaging - on both sides - which puts power in the hands of political elites and factions and agenda driven vested interests and flogging single issue politics rather than those of voters. They will invariably voters follow the guidance of trusted authority figures or fit the choice within a familiar narrative. Voters confront a problem in any referendum wherever it may be. They need to distill complex policy choices down to a simple yes or no, and predict the outcome of decisions so involved, so intricate that even legal experts might spend years struggling to understand them. 

 

Clement Attlee once referred to referendums as ‘a device for dictators and demagogues’. They reduce complicated issues down to simplistic ‘yes/no’ questions. They allow elected representatives to abrogate responsibility. They weaken the constitutional protection of minorities and can lead to a ‘tyranny of the majority’ - mob rules. The trainwreck of Brexit is no exception. We are all tangled in the wreckage and embroiled in the carnage.. 

 

[Toddybad]

2 minutes ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

 

If true then the VONC is practically dead already?

 

Such a shitshow all round

 

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Corbyn will be delighted. 

 

The last thing he wants to inherit is this, it's a no win situation for any Prime Minister.

My understanding is that they know they won't win the MONC but were increasingly aware that this is the latest realistic time to hold it - as waiting for the small possibility of DUP or (more likely if no deal ever became possible)Tory MPs can be stripped from voting Tory in future weeks would not benefit them.

 

Thornberry had an article in the Guardian this week effectively saying that they'll have no choice but to back a second referendum if they can't force a general election. I suppose it might depend whether the government offer up a full customs union when the parties begin talking.

 

There is a plan in place for MPs to take control of the government doesn't or can't take no deal off the table in the days ahead.

 

The most likely thing in the short term is an extension to article 50, though we're going to have to give the EU a reason to accept it - i.e.some clarity about the path ahead - so party discussions will have to get a move on.

 

I say it again, leavers have ensured that they'll be no hard Brexit by rejecting the deal. 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Toddybad said:

I say it again, leavers have ensured that they'll be no hard Brexit by rejecting the deal. 

You saw this deal as Hard Brexit?

[Legend_in_blue]

She's done.

 

Throw in the towel.

[Toddybad]

Just now, MattP said:

You saw this deal as Hard Brexit?

I know you much prefer to discuss personality and perceived intention than policy, so I'll clarify:

 

No, not at all.

 

This was just a withdrawal agreement.

 

A withdrawal agreement that left on the table the possibility of a hard Brexit through the negotiation of the final deal, if the Tory hard Brexiters had chosen a sensible time to hold their own vote of no confidence.

 

Instead, the house will now ensure that a hard Brexit is impossible.

 

Your best bet for a hard Brexit now is actually a general election and a change in the parliamentary arithmetic.

 

So, for that reason, I'm not actually sure I want the MONC to succeed.

[yorkie1999]

These mp's ain't very good at solving problems are they!

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Instead, the house will now ensure that a hard Brexit is impossible.

 

Your best bet for a hard Brexit now is actually a general election and a change in the parliamentary arithmetic.

 

So, for that reason, I'm not actually sure I want the MONC to succeed.

As we stated a few months ago, me and you have a very different idea of what hard Brexit is.

 

I dont demand a hard Brexit anymore as it was defined so I've no interest in a GE.

 

The no confidence vote will fail, it would be interesting though if the Labour front bench wasn't full of Republican sympathisers, the DUP may have collapsed it if not.

[gw_leics772]

14 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

 

My understanding is that they know they won't win the MONC but were increasingly aware that this is the latest realistic time to hold it - as waiting for the small possibility of DUP or (more likely if no deal ever became possible)Tory MPs can be stripped from voting Tory in future weeks would not benefit them.

 

Thornberry had an article in the Guardian this week effectively saying that they'll have no choice but to back a second referendum if they can't force a general election. I suppose it might depend whether the government offer up a full customs union when the parties begin talking.

 

There is a plan in place for MPs to take control of the government doesn't or can't take no deal off the table in the days ahead.

 

The most likely thing in the short term is an extension to article 50, though we're going to have to give the EU a reason to accept it - i.e.some clarity about the path ahead - so party discussions will have to get a move on.

 

I say it again, leavers have ensured that they'll be no hard Brexit by rejecting the deal. 

Extend it or cancel it with our own right to do it again whenever we feel like it.

 

If hard brexiteers ever took a majority they could piss the eu around so much that when they do, eu will make no offers.

 

He reality is that the red tops would see that as failure whereas it might be the most sensible,  and i voted leave.

 

I could live with hard brexit as a choice between Teresa's "deal" or staying in, and the way the eu are "negotiating"  makes that look the most likely, if, big if, it gets to that.

 

I expect it to come undone now and stay in. Unfortunately.

 

The scaremongering worked. It would be different.

 

I like different. Most don't.

[Toddybad]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

As we stated a few months ago, me and you have a very different idea of what hard Brexit is.

 

I dont demand a hard Brexit anymore as it was defined so I've no interest in a GE.

 

The no confidence vote will fail, it would be interesting though if the Labour front bench wasn't full of Republican sympathisers, the DUP may have collapsed it if not.

Probably. What do you now support?

[LiberalFox]

Surely the DUP are loving the power they presently hold and would have nothing to gain from a new election, they've also failed to actually govern Northern Ireland and will probably lose some of their seats as a result.

[Toddybad]

1 minute ago, gw_leics772 said:

Extend it or cancel it with our own right to do it again whenever we feel like it.

 

If hard brexiteers ever took a majority they could piss the eu around so much that when they do, eu will make no offers.

 

He reality is that the red tops would see that as failure whereas it might be the most sensible,  and i voted leave.

 

I could live with hard brexit as a choice between Teresa's "deal" or staying in, and the way the eu are "negotiating"  makes that look the most likely, if, big if, it gets to that.

 

I expect it to come undone now and stay in. Unfortunately.

 

The scaremongering worked. It would be different.

 

I like different. Most don't.

Problem for Brexiteers is everything they provided hasn't materialised. No easy deal, no EU begging us for a deal, no obvious benefits of Brexit whatsoever. Now, obviously many apparently voted leave because of 'sovereignty' but, when we're claimed to be on the precipice of a no deal it's very difficult not to look at your family, kids, grandkids etc and not question whether sovereignty is worth gambling that IDS knows more than the Bank of England, and Boris more than Jaguar's CEO. For me it's a huge shame that so many grandparents are willingly taking that risk knowing that the younger generation overwhelmingly don't support that gamble.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Probably. What do you now support?

Parliament finding a way to implement the result of the referendum.

 

If they can't then no deal.

[Toddybad]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Parliament finding a way to implement the result of the referendum.

 

If they can't then no deal.

The first line doesn't really mean anything. Particularly if you didn't like May's deal. 

[Finnegan]

3 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

The first line doesn't really mean anything. Particularly if you didn't like May's deal. 

 

I think it's quite clear that Matt just wants out regardless. I mean, you're just asking him what he wants. I doubt even Matt thinks it would be the democratic will of the majority to leave with No Deal but he's allowed to have a preference. 

 

Even if the will of the public majority was to leave with a deal, I'm sure you and I would still prefer we get out of this on some technicality and end up remaining. 

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

The first line doesn't really mean anything. Particularly if you didn't like May's deal. 

It means a lot. It's quite a change in position.

 

I said to @Alf Bentley last month or so I'll even be prepared to leave on a Norway type deal now, not ideal but I've become that pissed off with extremists now on both sides, the ERG head bangers demanding everything and the second referendum mob trying to overturn a result as they lost.

 

Given the severity of this, what parliament now needs is level heads, negotiation and compromise instead of two parties playing games and using it to try and further their own means.

 

A general election most probably doesn't solve the arithmetic, a second vote doesn't solve the issue - the moderates in the two main parties now have to work out how to get 326 votes to get something through, the job they are paid to do. 

[bovril]

It was also the vote for Parliamentary Pub of the Year in Westminster tonight. So a dramatic evening all round.