Champions League Points Required

[urban fox]

Nothing new really but why oh why is everyone assuming that the entire chasing pack all the way down to mid table are going to win every game and we are going to lose them all. History tells us that is never the case. Look at the fixtures, and they are remarkably similar. Sheff utd have dropped off but still capable of upsetting a few (including ourselves), Wolves and Chelsea play each other so there will be points dropped. With the exception of Bournemouth and man utd, we now have fixtures against mainly mid table sides with little to play for (and i include arsenal and possibly spurs in that) whereas the others till have some tough games against sides battling for survival. There is every chance Watford, under NP who has previous, could easily take points from the others, etc etc

FFS we are two games in, four points from our next two league games and we could easily have opened the gap again with even less games remaining. Yes it is squeaky bum time it is the same for the others and we are the ones that are sitting in 3rd with the points on the board. If we lose the next two then i will be worried if everyone else wins but until that happens lets remain positive.  With the exception of the top two nobody has had the level of consistency that some seem to believe they will suddenly acquire for the last few games.

[RonnieTodger]

One thing we have going for us is our goal difference. The chasing pack surely can't catch ours if it gets close

[Les-TA-Jon]

6 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

One thing we have going for us is our goal difference. The chasing pack surely can't catch ours if it gets close

Wow - I had no idea our goal difference was so massive - 30, compared to 10-17 for clubs around us

[Nick]

1 hour ago, urban fox said:

Nothing new really but why oh why is everyone assuming that the entire chasing pack all the way down to mid table are going to win every game and we are going to lose them all. History tells us that is never the case. Look at the fixtures, and they are remarkably similar. Sheff utd have dropped off but still capable of upsetting a few (including ourselves), Wolves and Chelsea play each other so there will be points dropped. With the exception of Bournemouth and man utd, we now have fixtures against mainly mid table sides with little to play for (and i include arsenal and possibly spurs in that) whereas the others till have some tough games against sides battling for survival. There is every chance Watford, under NP who has previous, could easily take points from the others, etc etc

FFS we are two games in, four points from our next two league games and we could easily have opened the gap again with even less games remaining. Yes it is squeaky bum time it is the same for the others and we are the ones that are sitting in 3rd with the points on the board. If we lose the next two then i will be worried if everyone else wins but until that happens lets remain positive.  With the exception of the top two nobody has had the level of consistency that some seem to believe they will suddenly acquire for the last few games.

Can’t see Man U losing many. Wolves are flying.

 

I reckon we need 10 points minimum out of our remaining games.

[Les-TA-Jon]

16 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

Can’t see Man U losing many. Wolves are flying.

 

I reckon we need 10 points minimum out of our remaining games.

For us to need 10 points, Man U and Wolves could only drop 4 points each. 5 wins and 1 draw and loss each or better? Fair play to them if they manage it. 

[urban fox]

6 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

Can’t see Man U losing many. Wolves are flying.

 

I reckon we need 10 points minimum out of our remaining games.

They don't have to lose many. By that reckoning both would have to win all but two of their remaining games. Even if that were the case, we can still get those points with the fixtures we have. Football is a fickle game. Two soft pens, or a couple of flukey goals deflected off someones backside, goalkeeping howlers etc and we could suddenly have another six points and looking good again. Yes we are not exactly in a current run of great form but if we sh1thouse our way to a couple of results then it is all change. We were poor against Brighton but others will have off days too. Alternatively, we could be brilliant in every one of the remaining games, raining shots down on a keeper having the game of their lives (Villa away leg anyone?), hitting the woodwork five times, and then lose to a dodgy VAR decision, last minute breakaway while we have ten players camped in the opposition penalty area or some such.

It is never over until the overweight person of the female persuasion is oscillating her vocal chords. She may be warming up but i don't hear no arias just yet.

 

[urban fox]

5 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

For us to need 10 points, Man U and Wolves could only drop 4 points each. 5 wins and 1 draw and loss each or better? Fair play to them if they manage it. 

And despite early season lack of form, that is championship performance and as you rightly say, they would deserve it. In fact if i were them and did that without getting into top four i would be gutted.

[Leicester_Loyal]

How the hell were we 14 points clear of 5th and we've now let other teams get this close?! It really is shocking.

[boots60]

2 hours ago, Nalis said:

Need Villa and Brighton to do us a favour before we play Everton, away wins for Wolves and Man U would be a disaster.

 

The only teams in the league with nothing to play for at present are probably Southampton and Newcastle.

& Liverpool

[Col city fan]

Are we going to completely fook up our automatic champions league spot? Chelsea and Man Utd look strong whereas we look anything but

Time for more adventurous football please Brenda...

[jeffschlupp]

Theses stats are crude 'law of averages' type stats but I thought they were interesting to show it's really not all that doom and gloom and that form does change drastically from one run to the next.

 

In the last 10 seasons, 15 teams went 7 games unbeaten from game 26 to game 31 inclusive.

 

13 of them lost at least once in the next 7 games - the only two sides that didn't were last season's ridiculous Man City and Liverpool teams.

 

12 of those teams had a lower points per game in the last 7 games than the previous 7 - the only exception was 2016-17 Manchester United, who were mainly unbeaten just because they drew 5 out of 7 from games 26 to 31.

 

Both Wolves and Man Utd took 15 points from their last 7. To do it again would put them on 64 points.

 

Even after the last couple of results, I still don't think either have what it takes to make that total.

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 minutes ago, jeffschlupp said:

Theses stats are crude 'law of averages' type stats but I thought they were interesting to show it's really not all that doom and gloom and that form does change drastically from one run to the next.

 

In the last 10 seasons, 15 teams went 7 games unbeaten from game 26 to game 31 inclusive.

 

13 of them lost at least once in the next 7 games - the only two sides that didn't were last season's ridiculous Man City and Liverpool teams.

 

12 of those teams had a lower points per game in the last 7 games than the previous 7 - the only exception was 2016-17 Manchester United, who were mainly unbeaten just because they drew 5 out of 7 from games 26 to 31.

 

Both Wolves and Man Utd took 15 points from their last 7. To do it again would put them on 64 points.

 

Even after the last couple of results, I still don't think either have what it takes to make that total.

Hence why 8-10 points will likely be enough.

[Nalis]

15 minutes ago, boots60 said:

& Liverpool

Good point, hoping their motivation is amassing a record points total though. 

 

They play Arsenal and Chelsea towards the end of the season.

[fuchsntf]

Stop trying to do the math....

Sit back und Enjoy it..only The players can take us forward, squeaky Bums Don t Change anything..!!

Its exciting to see if our players are mentality up for it,or like the 4 others chasing us...They all have the Football skills,but who can hold und Beat their own Shadows...All are youngish teams,we are the only one club in with players,without too much high octane situation Experience ( Wolves Europe experience)

 

Whatever happens..Rodgers HAS taken us that Stop further, our players have taken us that Step further,

fans like us can dream high,nothing wrong with that but we should not go on any crucifying campaign when the Club, manager,and players have successfully taken us a few steps up into areas we COULD previously  ONLY dream about!!   Oh I want that CL spot,

Yes it would be frustrating if we dropped out of the Top 4..!! But ist been a Great feeling mixing it with the Big boys,and this Club Set up pushing the rod out..

Like Liverpool in Klopp First years,we arent quite there,with our all round consistency and mental aptitude for the full strech....

But OMG. we again are competing at the high end of the table,with Another high grade level Position on the books...

 

Why make this successful era,into a miserable moaning unhappy Part of my supporters life...The odd critic is ok,

but too many posters just Keep on Pecking likeOld hens and put the forum in a demoralised tone...

.I just wish some would See the wider & bigger Picture  or cluck,cluck off...

 

Edited 26 June 2020 by fuchsntf

[Duncan_K]

1 hour ago, boots60 said:

& Liverpool

& pretty much Man City. Don't think they have to do much to not get caught. 

[The whole world smiles]

During this season with this set of players and this manager we are averaging 1.77 points a game. Man United and wolves are averaging 1.58 a game. With our goal difference we are essentially 7 points clear with 7 games to go. We would need to drop all the way down to 1 point a game for and man United and wolves would need to raise up to 2 points a game. 

 

There is absolutely no way we are blowing this every time we win a game the situation gets worse for the teams chasing us as it's another game chalked off.

 

If we win 2 of our next 3 we are pretty much home and dry.

 

Also up until man United we are playing mid table sides with nothing meaningful to play for.

[Xen]

4 hours ago, AKCJ said:

You think Man United will win 9 Premier League games on the bounce? Don't see that happening whatsoever. I don't know why people bother to fret themselves by saying things like that.

 

Barring the top two, nobody has won more games than us, scored more goals than us or conceded fewer goals than us.

 

We're the third best team in the country that is going through a tough spell (that looks worse than it is due to Covid).

 

Sick of the negativity on here. 10 years ago you'd have given your right bollock to be in this position after 3 games, let alone 31 games.

Just to elaborate on this a bit. I think its fair to say that two of our most pivotal players are Ndidi and Ricardo, who have both been injured for lengthy periods since the new year. In fact, in that time there are only 5 games where they've both played 60+ minutes together. The results from those games:

• Newcastle A (1/1):  W 0-3
• West Ham H (22/1): W 4-1
• Villa A (Cup) (28/1): L 2-1
• Birmingham H (Cup) (4/3): W 1-0
• Villa H (9/3): W 4-0

So when we're at full strength, we still perform pretty damn well. Obviously it doesn't help us as much this season with Ricardo, but it at least puts into context some of the bad run and shows that some of the Rodgers criticism is a little bit unwarranted. We didn't have any major injuries at the start of the season and look how well we performed then. We're not (yet) at the level where our depth is top-6/top-4 standard like for the other big clubs, understandably, so we're going to have tough periods like this when key players are unavailable. In the long term we need some strong recruitment to add more players at Ndidi/Ricardo's level so we can weather these tough patches, but that's not something that happens overnight and we'll get there with time.

 

In the short term it doesn't look great, admittedly, but we've still been defensively sound and decent in posession even though we're missing a bit of a spark in the final third, and we know we're always capable of picking up the wins that we need to see us over the line. This 6pt (+GD) buffer that we've got over 5th/6th is a lot for them to overcome in just 7 games even if we continue with bottom-half form, and I'm optimistic that once we get past some of the rustiness and get a result we'll be fine.

[urban fox]

43 minutes ago, Xen said:

Just to elaborate on this a bit. I think its fair to say that two of our most pivotal players are Ndidi and Ricardo, who have both been injured for lengthy periods since the new year. In fact, in that time there are only 5 games where they've both played 60+ minutes together. The results from those games:

• Newcastle A (1/1):  W 0-3
• West Ham H (22/1): W 4-1
• Villa A (Cup) (28/1): L 2-1
• Birmingham H (Cup) (4/3): W 1-0
• Villa H (9/3): W 4-0

So when we're at full strength, we still perform pretty damn well. Obviously it doesn't help us as much this season with Ricardo, but it at least puts into context some of the bad run and shows that some of the Rodgers criticism is a little bit unwarranted. We didn't have any major injuries at the start of the season and look how well we performed then. We're not (yet) at the level where our depth is top-6/top-4 standard like for the other big clubs, understandably, so we're going to have tough periods like this when key players are unavailable. In the long term we need some strong recruitment to add more players at Ndidi/Ricardo's level so we can weather these tough patches, but that's not something that happens overnight and we'll get there with time.

 

In the short term it doesn't look great, admittedly, but we've still been defensively sound and decent in posession even though we're missing a bit of a spark in the final third, and we know we're always capable of picking up the wins that we need to see us over the line. This 6pt (+GD) buffer that we've got over 5th/6th is a lot for them to overcome in just 7 games even if we continue with bottom-half form, and I'm optimistic that once we get past some of the rustiness and get a result we'll be fine.

Also Vardy picked up an injury during this period too. when we won the league, we had an an incredibly settled matchday squad, utilising the same 13/14 players for long periods (we only used 23 players all season) apart from a couple of suspensions towards the end. We were extremely lucky with injuries allowing us play the same team, using the same subs and settled into a rhythm. Those injuries to key players you mention have hit us hard this time and showed that we do not have the strength in depth of some of the others in and around the top six. This is not something that was not known, but we need this season to establish our credentials (both on and off the pitch) in order to attract more quality players to take us up to the next level.

It may well be that we lose a few players along the way, but ultimately that is life and we simply have to re-invest and go again. Ultimately if those players want to go, then they are not the right players for the club long term. it is down to them to perform to get us where we (and they) want to be.

To listen to some on here, if we "only" finish 6th, LC semi, FAC Qtr, then at least half our team will leave, we will never be able to sign a decent player ever again, we will be relegated next year and end up bankrupt playing park football in five years time.

Yes it would be disappointing to lose out on CL from where we are sitting at present but there are 17 other clubs and all of their players, in this division alone, who would rather be where we are now. We are a club on the up, new training ground on the way and probably the best owners in world football. Form is temporary, class is permanent. If i was an LCFC player and we missed out this season, i would be even more determined to go out there next season and prove to the world that we can be a force to be reckoned with.

 

Edited 26 June 2020 by urban fox

[srex9]

Kudos to all those with the positive posts! It's needed! I think we as fans often underestimate the effect it can have around the club and players. The general feelings of fans do get fed back to the players and staff whether it be through the media or word of mouth. The more positive we can be as a fan base the more it's going to help the team. We're up for the fight either way! Mixing it with the big boys is what we wanted, so let's enjoy the ride! 

[RonnieTodger]

Wolves are nobodies, Man United are so far behind us. Cam on....you do the maffs 

[l444ry]

Need to match or better Man Utd’s results in 5 of the last 7 games?

Edited 27 June 2020 by l444ry

[oxtonfox]

7 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Frustrating, but probably predictable when you look at our squad, are attacking options are paper thin in wide areas and upfront. 

 

As much as Nacho has showed promise, I don't think he is a good enough back for a side chasing the top 4.

 

In wide areas we have a Barnes a great player but lacks experience, a good solid but average PL pro in Albrighton, and a two very hit and miss player in Perez and Gray.

 

We should have strengthened in the January window.

You’re absolutely right. We didn’t bother strengthening up front in January and now we’re paying the price. It was lax from Brendan and we’re really suffering now. The biggest miss though is Perriera he’s the one guy who can actually do something when the whole team is playing dross. 

[Nalis]

Palace, Bournemouth and Sheffield United are must wins and we'll need a win against at least one of Arsenal, Spurs or Man Utd. 

 

Considering we havent won in any of our four games back, we'll need one hell of an upturn in form to do it.

[KrefelderFox666]

28 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Palace, Bournemouth and Sheffield United are must wins and we'll need a win against at least one of Arsenal, Spurs or Man Utd. 

 

Considering we havent won in any of our four games back, we'll need one hell of an upturn in form to do it.

If we don't beat Bournemouth, we deserve to drop out of the Top 6/7. Palace are not easy but a game we must look to to pick up our first win, take confidence into Arsenal game and pick up a point if lucky. However, if we continue to play like we do it will be 2 points out of the next 3 games. Second half today was much better and so was Chelsea first half. We need to play a good 90 minutes and be more consistent.

[filthyfox]

we are ****ed