Coronavirus Thread

[reynard]

23 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

You are only surmising, and guessing that one automatically follows on from the other, what happened first time around doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen again.I really hope you’re wrong.

 

 

So do I.

[Dan]

8 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

People and the media should be concentrating more on the hospital intakes and deaths rather than the spike in cases. They are the stats that really matter.

Doesn't make for a story though does it so they're not interested.

[WigstonWanderer]

Seems like I was wrong about the 3K positives tests, there doesn't seem to be any indication from official sources that this is just a correction for historical data. Hope it's just a outlier. There appears to be vastly more testing going on now than back in April, so hopefully 3,000 now is nowhere near equivalent to 3,000 then.

 

Nevertheless, a bit of a worrying trend. I haven't been following the UK situation much recently, but with the growing lack of tolerance to lockdowns and restrictions, it may be that there is no choice over there but to switch to a "mitigation" stategy (as opposed to "suppression"). This means that as much as possible is done short of lockdowns to manage infection, reserving the strongest measures only for if health care capacity looks like it would be overrun. Not my cup of tea, but perhaps with improved treatments and an apparently lower than expected threshold for herd immunity (for all sorts of possible reasons, many of which have been discussed here) it won't be as bad as once feared.

Edited 7 September 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Crinklyfox]

For those of you interested in science, the first pilot study report on the effect of Vitamin D on Covid-19 diagnosed hospital patients has been published.

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

 

A quick summary:

 

The study was carried out on 76 patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 in Spain.  All were given standard treatment but 50 were additionally given Calcifediol, a Vitamin D drug (Vitamin D taken into the body is processed through the liver and kidneys, this drug contains the processed form so raises the Vitamin D level in the body rapidly).

 

Of the 50 patients given the drug, one (2% of the total) was admitted to intensive care;  of the 26 patients not given the drug 13 (50% of the total) were admitted to intensive care.

 

Two patients who did not receive the drug died; none of the patients who received the drug died and all of these were discharged without complications.

 

A larger study is recommended but the results from the pilot study are highly encouraging.  I've been taking Vitamin D tablets as an immune system booster for the last six months and won't be stopping anytime soon.

[WigstonWanderer]

53 minutes ago, Crinklyfox said:

For those of you interested in science, the first pilot study report on the effect of Vitamin D on Covid-19 diagnosed hospital patients has been published.

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

 

A quick summary:

 

The study was carried out on 76 patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 in Spain.  All were given standard treatment but 50 were additionally given Calcifediol, a Vitamin D drug (Vitamin D taken into the body is processed through the liver and kidneys, this drug contains the processed form so raises the Vitamin D level in the body rapidly).

 

Of the 50 patients given the drug, one (2% of the total) was admitted to intensive care;  of the 26 patients not given the drug 13 (50% of the total) were admitted to intensive care.

 

Two patients who did not receive the drug died; none of the patients who received the drug died and all of these were discharged without complications.

 

A larger study is recommended but the results from the pilot study are highly encouraging.  I've been taking Vitamin D tablets as an immune system booster for the last six months and won't be stopping anytime soon.

Of course the caveat here is that the sample is very small, but does seem to agree other reports about vitamin D. I was already taking it on advice from my doctor and have recently doubled the dose.
 

From what I’ve read I’m sure there are plenty of cheap treatments that might have some efficacy, however the medical establishment in the main doesn’t seem interested in doing the trials required to settle the science. Constant reports from various doctors claiming good results for cocktails of cheaply available drugs are dismissed out of hand seemingly without investigation. Drug companies are only interested in flogging their overpriced underperforming offerings such as Remdesivir.

 

The only drug to buck this trend seems to be Dexamethasone, which was properly investigated and I believe is now widely used to reduce inflammation in later stage cases.

Edited 7 September 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Chrysalis]

I think the data is very telling.

 

The government has been telling Leicester they think spread happens in peoples homes.

 

But if you check the data, there is 2 stark trends.

 

1 - We was in decline for daily cases until about 1 week after pubs reopened, it then turned into a slow increase on 7 day average.

2 - One week after schools reopened its now exploding.

 

 

[Innovindil]

2 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I think the data is very telling.

 

The government has been telling Leicester they think spread happens in peoples homes.

 

But if you check the data, there is 2 stark trends.

 

1 - We was in decline for daily cases until about 1 week after pubs reopened, it then turned into a slow increase on 7 day average.

2 - One week after schools reopened its now exploding.

 

 

Trouble is, it takes longer than 1 week for these changes to filter through doesn't it? I was under the impression anything we changed wasn't reflected in case changes for about 4 weeks? 

 

Could be wrong, but seems quick considering you can have the virus for a few days before even being able to register a positive test. 

[leicsmac]

Judging by events over here, there seems to be an approximate lag of 10-14 days between events and numbers being recorded that are attributable to those events.

 

That's just a guess, though - I haven't been able to find any solid research on the matter, which is odd, because it is rather important.

[filbertway]

39 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Trouble is, it takes longer than 1 week for these changes to filter through doesn't it? I was under the impression anything we changed wasn't reflected in case changes for about 4 weeks? 

 

Could be wrong, but seems quick considering you can have the virus for a few days before even being able to register a positive test. 

I think hospital admissions you'd expect 4-5 weeks. For positive tests then between 1-2 weeks. That's the general rule of thumb I've been going by anyway haha,

[FLAN]

Supposed to play 5 a side at Manor Road tonight and the university have contacted the lad who booked it to say we need to have completed a risk assessment from the FA before we can play 🤷🏻‍♂️

[worthosoriginals]

2 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

For those of you interested in science, the first pilot study report on the effect of Vitamin D on Covid-19 diagnosed hospital patients has been published.

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

 

A quick summary:

 

The study was carried out on 76 patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 in Spain.  All were given standard treatment but 50 were additionally given Calcifediol, a Vitamin D drug (Vitamin D taken into the body is processed through the liver and kidneys, this drug contains the processed form so raises the Vitamin D level in the body rapidly).

 

Of the 50 patients given the drug, one (2% of the total) was admitted to intensive care;  of the 26 patients not given the drug 13 (50% of the total) were admitted to intensive care.

 

Two patients who did not receive the drug died; none of the patients who received the drug died and all of these were discharged without complications.

 

A larger study is recommended but the results from the pilot study are highly encouraging.  I've been taking Vitamin D tablets as an immune system booster for the last six months and won't be stopping anytime soon.

V interesting crinkly, iv been hearing/reading about the possible positive vit d aspect on covid. More research and studies needed of course.

 

Havn't heard though, on any positive effects from the drinking of bleach, as per recommended by the   'great' (his view) Mr trump. 

[CosbehFox]

16 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Do you really believe this rise is a consequence of holidays and foreign travel? The virus never went away here, it’s more than likely being spread amongst the younger generation who many seem to have forgotten how to socially distance rather than being imported from abroad.

 

On a good note only 3 deaths today.

I think foreign travel will be one of the few factors. Younger generation mixing greater whilst abroad. More alcohol drunk too. 

[VLC86]

1 hour ago, FLAN said:

Supposed to play 5 a side at Manor Road tonight and the university have contacted the lad who booked it to say we need to have completed a risk assessment from the FA before we can play 🤷🏻‍♂️

It’s the same as visiting a restaurant now. I’m starting at St Margaret’s again tomorrow and have had to do the same.

[Chrysalis]

3 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Trouble is, it takes longer than 1 week for these changes to filter through doesn't it? I was under the impression anything we changed wasn't reflected in case changes for about 4 weeks? 

 

Could be wrong, but seems quick considering you can have the virus for a few days before even being able to register a positive test. 

I think 1 week is about right before you become a spreader, you can be a spreader before you get symptoms.

 

However yeah results are not instant so is extra lag for that I didnt take account off.

Edited 7 September 2020 by Chrysalis

[Chrysalis]

18 hours ago, StanSP said:

So what's the reason for the jump in cases?

 

More testing? The knock-on effect of society opening up? Test and trace data being included? Historical data? 

Combination of it all really.

 

Essentially the economy is now been put first, so inevitably this is increasing risk of transmission and we seeing that now.

 

But also is level of testing been carried out is increasing as well.

 

I have noticed the BBC in their government mouthpiece mode are now stating its down to more testing funny they didnt want to say that for the localised lockdown areas.

Edited 7 September 2020 by Chrysalis

[reynard]

The picture in France should be a serious warning to the potential of what might happen here in around 3 to 4 weeks.

Also since schools reopened in Scotland numbers there are on the increase.

 

Following quote re France.

"Today, we have a rise in the number of new cases a week of 30% and a 15% increase in the number of hospital admissions a week. If this rhythm continues, we will reach a critical situation in several regions of France in December."

Edited 7 September 2020 by reynard

[Leicester_Loyal]

Cases were always going to rise, we're getting back to normality. The schools had to reopen at some point.

[FLAN]

1 hour ago, Costock_Fox said:

It’s the same as visiting a restaurant now. I’m starting at St Margaret’s again tomorrow and have had to do the same.

We played at St Margaret’s but didn’t have anything like that. 

[isaidno]

Anyone had any experience of booking a test for a toddler. My 15 month old has had a temperature.  NHS 111 are saying she needs one , but unable to book one and been she doesn't need one by other people ?

[VLC86]

2 hours ago, FLAN said:

We played at St Margaret’s but didn’t have anything like that. 

Ah right, maybe it’s the guys I play with that are doing it. Presumed it was St Maggys enforcing it.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

2 hours ago, reynard said:

The picture in France should be a serious warning to the potential of what might happen here in around 3 to 4 weeks.

Also since schools reopened in Scotland numbers there are on the increase.

 

Following quote re France.

"Today, we have a rise in the number of new cases a week of 30% and a 15% increase in the number of hospital admissions a week. If this rhythm continues, we will reach a critical situation in several regions of France in December."

It really is a case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t, universities and schools need to be open and new cases will rise, I’m still hoping hospital admissions don’t rise as a consequence.

What I find infuriating is the government on one hand encouraging people back to the office (we all know why ££) and then threatening places with local lockdowns, the realisation now of job losses and business closures is going to be a bitter pill to swallow for many as will the knock on effects of unemployment.

[Lionator]

3000 again today. Daily hospitalisations are also starting to increase quite rapidly according to the government PHE page. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

It's scary how many cases we actually must have had back in March/April when the testing when dramatically lower, there could have been 10-15k+ cases per day realistically.

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's scary how many cases we actually must have had back in March/April when the testing when dramatically lower, there could have been 10-15k+ cases per day realistically.

i reckon a lot more than that late march and through april………...

[Lionator]

6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's scary how many cases we actually must have had back in March/April when the testing when dramatically lower, there could have been 10-15k+ cases per day realistically.

They did say it was likely to be around 30x more than the official cases at that point. Antibody tests point to about 4-5 million having had the virus too.