Coronavirus Thread

[Babylon]

29 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Apparently around 47% of the French won't have a vaccine

Surprised it’s not more! 

[Corky]

3 hours ago, Babylon said:

So how to the Government expect this Christmas mixing to go? (if true). Surely they have to point out to the idiots that having your 85 year old Gran round for 4 days over Christmas with all the kids is probably not the wisest of things?

Of course it's not. But the whole "saving Christmas" thing will win out despite it being a contradiction of every thing they've asked for- distancing, staying in bubbles, not travelling long distances, keeping age groups apart so youngsters can't pass it on to the elderly.

 

We'll have a "break" from Christmas Eve to around the 29th then back into lockdown.

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

is that right ? all grandparents have a 10% chance of dying in a normal year ?

Nope.  That was an example.

 

On average, people over 80 have a 10% chance of dying in a normal year.  This particular example granny was one of the average over-80s.

 

Typically, 600,000 people die in an average year.  If 120,000 extra die of coronavirus (who would not have died of something else anyway) then the chance of death is raised by 20%; and from death rates generally, the chance appears to be proportionate (roughly) to your existing chance of dying.  So if your current death probabilty is 1%, it would become 1.2%.  If 10%, it would become 12%.  And so forth.

[Leicester_Loyal]

No chance pubs open in Leicester when this lockdown ends IMO, those figures are way too high. We might be able to go out to restaurants, but I think now they know a vaccine is coming soon, we'll be in lockdowns (tiers 2 & 3) until March/April. May as well stick my name down for overtime next month, if by some miracle Boris opens the pubs I'll bin it off.

 

 

[Innovindil]

24 minutes ago, Corky said:

Of course it's not. But the whole "saving Christmas" thing will win out despite it being a contradiction of every thing they've asked for- distancing, staying in bubbles, not travelling long distances, keeping age groups apart so youngsters can't pass it on to the elderly.

 

We'll have a "break" from Christmas Eve to around the 29th then back into lockdown.

Don't even understand why they want to make it multiple days. Christmas day does just fine imo. Maybe throw new years eve in if your feeling frisky. 

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

3 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

Many of these grandmas and granddads know that there's a good chance this will be their last Christmas anyway - that will be true for about half a million of them no matter what - and so they will take the relatively small increased risk.  After all, if you have a 10% chance of dying next year and this Covid makes it a 12% risk, perhaps you would take the chance.  (Broadly speaking, across the board, it seems that Covid is increasing the chances of death by about 20% across the board, based on 120,000 deaths by the time it's over.)

 

 

I suspect that in hindsight many of those grandmas and granddads who do contract the virus would rather have not bothered with Christmas.
To spend their last two weeks slowly suffocating in hospital without the comfort of their loved ones would probably be considered worst.
Not to mention the anguish that those same loved ones suffer  due to their inability to get any kind of closure or even a ‘goodbye’.

[dsr-burnley]

8 minutes ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

I suspect that in hindsight many of those grandmas and granddads who do contract the virus would rather have not bothered with Christmas.
To spend their last two weeks slowly suffocating in hospital without the comfort of their loved ones would probably be considered worst.
Not to mention the anguish that those same loved ones suffer  due to their inability to get any kind of closure or even a ‘goodbye’.

I dare say they would.  I'm sure people killed in road accidents would wish they hadn't driven.  It's a chance you take.  On the other hand, if you sit in your room all your life taking no risks, you won't die without regrets.

 

There's no doubt that the 10% who die alone when they could have spent the last year with their families, would have regrets that they stayed at home.  There's little doubt that the 2% who die of coronavirus without their families, some but not all of whom caught it from their families, will have regrets that they went out.  And there is no doubt that the 88% who could have spent time with their families but instead chose or were forced to sit at home for no benefit, would have regrets if they knew they were one of the 88.

 

That's the problem.  This lockdown benefits the 2% of pensioners whose lives were spared but is a nightmare for the other 98%.  So on a purely personal level, the balance of probabilities is that seeing your family as normal is better for the old people as individuals.  For the risk-takers, It's only the global impact on other people that provides the vital reason to stop in.

[CosbehFox]

55 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

That's the problem.  This lockdown benefits the 2% of pensioners whose lives were spared but is a nightmare for the other 98%.  So on a purely personal level, the balance of probabilities is that seeing your family as normal is better for the old people as individuals.  For the risk-takers, It's only the global impact on other people that provides the vital reason to stop in.

This type of comment is getting on my nerves. 

[Ashley]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

I dare say they would.  I'm sure people killed in road accidents would wish they hadn't driven.  It's a chance you take.  On the other hand, if you sit in your room all your life taking no risks, you won't die without regrets.

 

There's no doubt that the 10% who die alone when they could have spent the last year with their families, would have regrets that they stayed at home.  There's little doubt that the 2% who die of coronavirus without their families, some but not all of whom caught it from their families, will have regrets that they went out.  And there is no doubt that the 88% who could have spent time with their families but instead chose or were forced to sit at home for no benefit, would have regrets if they knew they were one of the 88.

 

That's the problem.  This lockdown benefits the 2% of pensioners whose lives were spared but is a nightmare for the other 98%.  So on a purely personal level, the balance of probabilities is that seeing your family as normal is better for the old people as individuals.  For the risk-takers, It's only the global impact on other people that provides the vital reason to stop in.

So much ignorance its untrue.

[dsr-burnley]

4 minutes ago, Ashley said:

So much ignorance its untrue.

Not entirely helpful.  For the benefit of the less-wise-than-you, can you be a bit more specific about what you disagree with?

[BrokenRecord]

I've never thought this was about saving the elderly. I thought this was about saving an underfunded national health service that we have seen brought to its knees by a pandemic. We have a very overweight and elderly country, but this isn't necessarily about saving them. If too many of them get sick, there will be bigger problems for the health service and in turn, the rest of us. 

[Livid]

There’s dying and dying scared and alone in a hospital ward surrounded by medical staff covered head to toe in PPE.

 

I know which way I would prefer myself and my elderly relatives to go. 

[Chrysalis]

7 hours ago, Nalis said:

All this talk that loosening lockdowns slightly will destroy any chance of getting back to normal in the new year is the biggest pile of shit ever.

 

If people are still allowed to go to school, work, etc then we arent going to decrease cases enough to get to even a nationwide Tier 1 lockdown let alone anything looser until at least spring.

 

Happy to be proved wrong (and hope I am wrong) so feel free to quote this if daily cases ever dip below 10k by the end of January on any standard/non weekend reporting day.

Pretty much this, I dont know why people think household mixing of families is a big vector, the scientist data released repeatedly doesnt support this (big parties yes, but not small meets).  The latest figures for November in terms of spread vectors.  Looking at the Leicester data I posted a few days back, we can see the lockdown measures since September has been unable to bring the figures down, and they have actually accelerated since national lockdown started.

 

Quote

1 - Supermarket 18.3%
2 - Secondary school 12.7%
3 - Primary school 10.1%

 

Edited 19 November 2020 by Chrysalis

[Ashley]

49 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Not entirely helpful.  For the benefit of the less-wise-than-you, can you be a bit more specific about what you disagree with?

 

The latter with it benefitting pensioners? Not just pensioners is it. Its the majority of the general public not to mention those in shielding. That's what I disagree with. 

[whoareyaaa]

I think they are scaring some older people to death literally, its disgusting the media are an absolute joke, my mum is like a deer in headlights atm.

 

All this scaremongering are we going to have christmas are we not, load of guff.

[The People's Hero]

8 hours ago, simFox said:

There are a lot of nurses off work, isolating according to the figures I read. There will no doubt be a bunch of nurses thinking why am I risking myself with covid for such a low wage. A bigger wage to work at covid wards will attract more people, nurses are humans and money talks.

Money doesn't talk; it swears.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, Chrysalis said:

Pretty much this, I dont know why people think household mixing of families is a big vector, the scientist data released repeatedly doesnt support this (big parties yes, but not small meets).  The latest figures for November in terms of spread vectors.  Looking at the Leicester data I posted a few days back, we can see the lockdown measures since September has been unable to bring the figures down, and they have actually accelerated since national lockdown started.

 

 

I said it weeks ago and I still stand by my statement. You can close everything, but whilst having unis, schools and key workplaces open (including supermarkets), you'll always have a lot of cases and an R rate around 1.

 

We'll be like this until we get a vaccine system sorted now, and when that's sorted, we'll still have to wear masks and social distance.

[yorkie1999]

This sort of stuff is straight from the David Brent school of business management

[The People's Hero]

Relax guys, workstreams have been mobilised. Whatever that means. Sounds bloody impressive.

[stix]

21 hours ago, Rain King said:

Thanks, he had problems with his ears when he was younger (recurring glue-ear) so think it's just an extension of that.

Will see how he is on the morning.

My eldest has had many bouts of Tonsillitis throughout her childhood. On Sunday she was complaining of a sore throat, we called 111 and they said try not to worry, keep her off on the Monday and keep an eye on her. 
 

We decided to get her tested on Monday afternoon as a precaution, and got a positive test result yesterday morning. 
 

It could indeed be unrelated, and to be quite honest I/we could have done without the hassle of self isolation for the next two weeks, but for me it was a case of better safe than sorry. 
 

If you and your other half are happy to take the little one to be tested, then maybe you should consider it. Good luck hope they’re feeling better soon. 

[FoxesDeb]

1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said:

I think they are scaring some older people to death literally, its disgusting the media are an absolute joke, my mum is like a deer in headlights atm.

 

All this scaremongering are we going to have christmas are we not, load of guff.

You mean you haven't shown her all your unscientific cherry picked stats and desperately biased YouTube videos made by knitting scientists that confirm it's all a load of nonsense that we don't need to be worried about? Surely if she listens to you she has absolutely nothing to be scared of?

[String fellow]

It must be a sign of the times that on a day when another 500 victims have died from Covid-19, the biggest topic for discussion on FT is the lyrics to a song.

[SpacedX]

47 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I said it weeks ago and I still stand by my statement. You can close everything, but whilst having unis, schools and key workplaces open (including supermarkets), you'll always have a lot of cases and an R rate around 1.

 

We'll be like this until we get a vaccine system sorted now, and when that's sorted, we'll still have to wear masks and social distance.

Odd that the opening of pubs and hospitality doesn't figure in or impact upon your "statement"? 

[Ashley]

8 minutes ago, String fellow said:

It must be a sign of the times that on a day when another 500 victims have died from Covid-19, the biggest topic for discussion on FT is the lyrics to a song.

All Covid or other matters and covid is being used on the death certificate?

[Otis]

12 minutes ago, Ashley said:

All Covid or other matters and covid is being used on the death certificate?

Had a positive test result during the last 28 days but died for any reason at all.