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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, AllGoneTitsSchlupp said:

have a feeling that all the plaudits jacinda ardern is earning herself in nz are going to come to a grinding halt once they’re still going in and out of lockdown after *checks notes* 1 case. how long can they keep that up for and still be seen as a beacon of hope for ‘eradicating’ the virus ?

Once a sufficient amount of people have been vaccinated there and elsewhere it's no longer going to matter. And that shouldn't be too far away.

 

Jumping on outbreaks as they came up is something Vietnam, Korea, Aus, NZ and a couple other places did well and it shows in the overall level of disruption to their countries over the course of the pandemic compared to places that were not able to control it early.

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AllGoneTitsSchlupp

AllGoneTitsSchlupp

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Once a sufficient amount of people have been vaccinated there and elsewhere it's no longer going to matter. And that shouldn't be too far away.

 

Jumping on outbreaks as they came up is something Vietnam, Korea, Aus, NZ and a couple other places did well and it shows in the overall level of disruption to their countries over the course of the pandemic compared to places that were not able to control it early.

oh yeah i get that when they start vaccinations etc it won’t matter. but when is that? I haven’t really heard a lot about it over there. and I guess they don’t really need to worry about it for now. but seems as tho they’ll get left behind as the rest of the world gets on with it etc. they’ll still be locking down over very small case numbers 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, AllGoneTitsSchlupp said:

oh yeah i get that when they start vaccinations etc it won’t matter. but when is that? I haven’t really heard a lot about it over there. and I guess they don’t really need to worry about it for now. but seems as tho they’ll get left behind as the rest of the world gets on with it etc. they’ll still be locking down over very small case numbers 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand-idUSKBN2AB2KM

 

Started on Feb 20 with enough doses ordered to cover everyone three times, apparently. It would be a bit odd if, as you say, they hadn't taken steps to get that sorted because they'd just be going round and round.

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 25/02/2021 at 09:18, yorkie1999 said:

I thought Leicester was still in a lockdown.

 

we are, for reasons not entirely clear lockdown isnt effective in Leicester, and the county areas also now seem affected although to a lesser extent.

 

I think compliance is really low, the level of traffic on the road and people walking round in groups, with kids etc. is clearly not "only go out when essential",

 

Perhaps a give away is when we have our mayor saying our economy is resilient, because we have a higher then average amount of manufacturing, that however I think contributes to higher transmission, as most factories in Leicester have stayed running through all lockdowns.

 

The city probably needs a full on shutdown, basically every business except supermarkets and suppliers, as well as health/social care should be shut, the roads should be near dead probably for 3-4 weeks.  The problem is there will be no willpower to do it, if the government try it, all the local MPs and councillors will cry about it, the council wont do it, as they will worry about getting reelected, and too concerned about economical impact.  This isnt in those in a position of power to do whats required.

 

The only hope for the city at this point is the vaccine is effective, but I think we have low levels of adoption on that as well.

 

The government wont think twice about sticking us back in local lockdown when national ends, the vast majority of voters around the country will be fine with it.

 

I think the reasons for the high numbers are the following combined.

 

Poverty.

Types of employment in the city.

Low levels compliance (related to poverty and the high amount of students)

Poor local leadership.

High attendance at schools during lockdown (linked to poverty)

Crowded housing.

Many have the mindset of "when do we get out this damn lockdown and go back to normal" instead of "how do we get transmission down to safe levels".  Including the MPs and Councillors hence the bad leadership.

 

At least a chunk of these need addressing to solve the problem, perpetual weakly enforced lockdowns wont do it.  The definition of insanity is to keep trying the same thing again and again expecting a different result, which is what we doing.

Edited by Chrysalis
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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted
On 25/02/2021 at 09:48, OrielCaziado said:

We know what’s coming Mark.  I can see it now. The June re opening of the Uk with Leicester back where it belongs in lockdown.  The holidays all cancelled from LE postcodes. The Leicester lepers part two. 

Whats sad, is it wont be seen as a problem until that date, yet its entirely predictable right now.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

The city probably needs a full on shutdown, basically every business except supermarkets and suppliers, as well as health/social care should be shut, the roads should be near dead probably for 3-4 weeks.  The problem is there will be no willpower to do it, if the government try it, all the local MPs and councillors will cry about it, the council wont do it, as they will worry about getting reelected, and too concerned about economical impact.  This isnt in those in a position of power to do whats required.

 

The only hope for the city at this point is the vaccine is effective, but I think we have low levels of adoption on that as well.

 

 

A full lockdown would never work, too many people are considered key workers for it to work.

 

A lockdown now isn't gonna see compliance either, people have had enough after 12 months of this.

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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Regular as clockwork.

 

Loads of kids out at the park this weekend enjoying the weather, will only get worse (in terms of compliance) as the weeks go on.

How true,  There were loads of people out enjoying the sunshine last April-May-June as well, when we had good weather.  I don't think that was responsible for the January wave, though.

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oxford blue

oxford blue

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Loads of kids out at the park this weekend enjoying the weather, will only get worse (in terms of compliance) as the weeks go on.

You are right, but it is very unlikely to lead to an increase in CV infections, provided everyone stays outside. For example, there is nothing to suggest the busy beaches during the first lockdown led to an increase in infections. It appears ventilation is key, and schools will be encouraged to keep classrooms well ventilated. I am not suggesting all events outdoors are safe - as the Cheltenham festival last year showed, but crowds were very close together including congregating in bars etc. Part empty football stadiums would seem to me to be safe, provided there was staggered entry/exit and limited numbers in concourse areas.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

How true,  There were loads of people out enjoying the sunshine last April-May-June as well, when we had good weather.  I don't think that was responsible for the January wave, though.

 

1 minute ago, oxford blue said:

You are right, but it is very unlikely to lead to an increase in CV infections, provided everyone stays outside. For example, there is nothing to suggest the busy beaches during the first lockdown led to an increase in infections. It appears ventilation is key, and schools will be encouraged to keep classrooms well ventilated. I am not suggesting all events outdoors are safe - as the Cheltenham festival last year showed, but crowds were very close together including congregating in bars etc. Part empty football stadiums would seem to me to be safe, provided there was staggered entry/exit and limited numbers in concourse areas.

Oh yeah definitely agree with you both.

 

I think it's great personally that people are finally living their lives again, even if it does go against the current 'rules'. As the temperature gets hotter, less people will follow the rules, so we're at sort of an end game now with all of this.

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

Brazil variant... "all 6 cases are linked to people flying back to UK from Brazil" - Just baffles me that our border control was so relaxed for so long. 

 

It's almost like they were withholding this news for a positive day - nice weather, plummeting cases etc, just to scare us again.

I thought flights were banned from Brazil?

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Otis

Otis

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Regular as clockwork.

 

Loads of kids out at the park this weekend enjoying the weather, will only get worse (in terms of compliance) as the weeks go on.

 

2 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Oh yeah definitely agree with you both.

 

I think it's great personally that people are finally living their lives again, even if it does go against the current 'rules'. As the temperature gets hotter, less people will follow the rules, so we're at sort of an end game now with all of this.

Going to the park is well within the rules though.

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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

Brazil variant... "all 6 cases are linked to people flying back to UK from Brazil" - Just baffles me that our border control was so relaxed for so long. 

 

It's almost like they were withholding this news for a positive day - nice weather, plummeting cases etc, just to scare us again.

They have linked it back to a plane which flew into Heathrow five days before the change in the quarantine rules :rolleyes:

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Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

A full lockdown would never work, too many people are considered key workers for it to work.

 

A lockdown now isn't gonna see compliance either, people have had enough after 12 months of this.

That has been a prime driver in the cause of this, too many people think they key workers when they not.  

 

do you prefer been in a lockdown but ignoring it, or been out of a lockdown?

 

If compliance proves extremely hard to achieve then force is needed, vaccine passports, travel/holiday bans, cancelling of passports for those in lockdown areas etc.  Otherwise this time next year we will be having the same conversation.  The virus wont just magically go poof, it requires actions on a community level.

 

Only a matter of time that Leicester residents start been banned from visiting hotels etc.  

Edited by Chrysalis
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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted (edited)

Surge testing as a tool for managing new variants is a bigger farce than the nightingales as a tool for managing hospital overflow. By the time you've detected a new more easily spread variant in general testing, it's already out there spreading. You might get a decent measure of how much of it is around in an outbreak area with surge testing, but you're never going to be in a position to halt its spread. 

Edited by Fktf
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