2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Dan LCFC]

Regarding Liverpool - bit torn on that game. Burnley's home form is scarily bad and Turf Moor being a hard place to go to is one of the biggest myths in football. I genuinely couldn't tell you the last time they beat someone big at home.

 

That said though, I feel that home form is pretty irrelevant in the sense there'll be fans at their game tonight for the first time in ages, which I think is making a noticeable impact. Absolutely not a prayer Brighton come back yesterday behind closed doors. Likewise I think it largely helped sway Chelsea's performance last night too. I used to wonder if I was saying fans make a difference just because I preferred being in a more vociferous atmosphere anyway but this season is tangible proof of the effect. Burnley will surely be wanting a reaction after that garbage at the weekend, they did beat Liverpool earlier this season and have given them problems on a number of occasions. I'm not pinning too much hope on them, but they have a chance, an already relegated West Brom side would've taken something off Liverpool if the officials had a clue what they were doing.

 

The home advantage point also applies to both our game, and Aston Villa v Chelsea. If we do win on Sunday, then it takes just one of the other three games going our way for us to qualify. I don't fancy us now and I've made peace with finishing 5th already (and did I think after Southampton), but it's not over yet.

[Fightforever]

If we are serious about getting top 4 or winning the Europa league next year the likes of Albrighton, Perez, Vardy and even Amartey at a strech can't be getting regular minutes anymore. 

[BenTheFox]

2 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

If we are serious about getting top 4 or winning the Europa league next year the likes of Albrighton, Perez, Vardy and even Amartey at a strech can't be getting regular minutes anymore. 

You say that but Villareal have made the Europa League final and many of their player are cast-offs (Capoue, Foyth, Coquelin etc.) and their goalkeeper looked terrified whenever the ball came within 20 yards of him. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

3 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

You say that but Villareal have made the Europa League final and many of their player are cast-offs (Capoue, Foyth, Coquelin etc.) and their goalkeeper looked terrified whenever the ball came within 20 yards of him. 

Don't forget our boy Iborra. 

[Ric Flair]

Do not be surprised to see us having secured commercial deals worth similar amounts to securing CL football year in, year out in the next year or so. These 2 years of disrupting the big six, their PR gaff with ESL, us winning the FA Cup and our owners very much looking at ways to continuing to grow us and I think there's deal being done.

 

Not that that's a reason to not care about missing out on CL football again but most of the disgruntlement amongst our fans is that missing CL will mean we can't sign all the players we have lined up this summer and therefore if that's all that's wrong with us coming 5th again then we will be in for a pleasant surprise.

[JamesfromlondonLCFC]

The Europa League is almost as winnable as the FA Cup if you prioritise is properly, which we may have to do next year, as I believe the top 4 spots will be way more difficult to get into next season.

[Ric Flair]

I loved the Europa League this season, its very competitive and isn't the farmers league it's made out to be. Some class teams in it and ones we can win against as well (like we could in the CL too to be fair)

 

 

[JamesfromlondonLCFC]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

I loved the Europa League this season, its very competitive and isn't the farmers league it's made out to be. Some class teams in it and ones we can win against as well (like we could in the CL too to be fair)

 

 

Fully agree with this. Was also great seeing the opinions of Leicester from teams across Europe. Tbh I'm excited about any European football. Easy to forget how little of it we have had throughout our history 

[Dan LCFC]

Don't forget as well what version of the Europa League we got - the one we couldn't even go to, it's bound to not live long in peoples memories.

 

Braga away for example and the game that panned out would've been mentioned for years on here I think.

Edited 19 May 2021 by Dan LCFC

[Paninistickers]

4 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I loved the Europa League this season, its very competitive and isn't the farmers league it's made out to be. Some class teams in it and ones we can win against as well (like we could in the CL too to be fair)

 

 

Playing AEK in front of 50k hostile fans would've been fantastic 

[Guest ttfn]

I still think we’re about a 50:50 shot provided we win on Sunday. 
 

You can’t get odds on Sunday’s games yet but Liverpool are 1.29 to beat Burnley today - assuming a similar price for them against Palace (it will be shorter) and Chelsea against Villa (it will be longer), you get an implied chance of all 3 of those results going against us being 50%.
 

Not to mention that if Liverpool lose either game or (more unlikely) Chelsea lose by 3 then a draw is enough.

[21st Century Fox]

33 minutes ago, Foxy_Bear said:

And the most dated reference of the week goes to....

I haven't seen a response that catty since Joan Crawford savaged Bette Davis at the 1936 Oscars.

[Dan LCFC]

1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

Playing AEK in front of 50k hostile fans would've been fantastic 

As an experience that would be far better than watching us getting twatted by Bayern.

[Tuna]

Just goes to show how tough it is to finish top 4, we are competing with teams who can pretty well field 2 quality XI and can absorb injuries to key players. To still be in with a shout of it on the last day of the season with injuries to two of our best players is a credit to us, regardless of us being in there for the whole season.

[Eskay]

If I hadn't watched Burnley look so league 1 against Leeds the other day, I'd feel more confident. 

 

Personally think our hope is Villa pulling off something. But agreed....3 results going against us is strong. 5 if you count last night and Liverpool beating WBA. 

[turlo]

With our current squad and model of bringing in young players to develop, the Europa League is a good competition for us. The group stages give opportunity to give squad players game time and bed in youth players as well. The likes of Sowah, KDB and Thomas would all get a good amount game time in the group stages. If we improve our squad depth we could rotate better in the later rounds to avoid the likes of JJ, Youri and Barnes having to play ever game in ever competition and hopefully progress deep into the competition.

Personally i couldn't give a s**te about the UCL as a competition if Leicester aren't involved. . i don't get anything out of watching the Madrid's, Barca's of the world and i think Neymar's a showboating C U Next Tuesday. I do however understand the importance of the money it brings in and ability to retain our best players.

 

All that said I still think we'll qualify!

[BenTheFox]

11 minutes ago, Eskay said:

If I hadn't watched Burnley look so league 1 against Leeds the other day, I'd feel more confident. 

 

Personally think our hope is Villa pulling off something. But agreed....3 results going against us is strong. 5 if you count last night and Liverpool beating WBA. 

Maybe I'm clutching, but I find it hard to believe that Dyche would allow a performance like that in their next game. On the flipside of the coin, I wouldn't be surprised if Dyche is interested in the Palace job and his head might be turned.

[AKCJ]

I was completely happy with the fact we'd won the Cup at the weekend and that top 4 would have been "icing on the cake" material all day yesterday.

 

When the game was on I really did want to win and was gutted at the fulltime whistle. However now i've slept on it, i'm back in the same frame of mind.

 

Can you imagine how good Braga away would have been? Or Prague? Not the end of the world for me if we miss out on top 4 outside the fact the likes of Tielemans won't hang about forever if we're not in it.

[simon789us]

Whether we finish 3rd 4th or 5th and win the cup it’s been a hell of a season for a club our size the injuries we have had have not helped but onwards and upward Leicester till I die

[Number 6]

Was interested to see how much of a drop off there has been this season compared to last...so had a quick look...

 

 

There definitely has been a drop off in both years, but WAY less pronounced this season compared to last. Given the combination of extra games and injuries, I think that in itself is fairly impressive. The number of extra fixtures will end up only being 5 due to our extended run in the league cup last season and short run in the same competition in this, though that is now over 100 games across two seasons so probably not surprising that the bodies are piling up in the physio room.

 

Probably a cumulative effect of the amount of effort everyone is having to put in to try and keep ourselves punching above our weight class leads to the decline. Also, if we do miss out for the second time, it will have taken Man Utd last year, and Liverpool this, to put together their best runs of the season down the final straight.

 

 

Edited 19 May 2021 by Number 6
Fat fingers

[Lineker's Left Foot]

Also this is the first time we will have had it consecutively too.

[Detroit Blues]

54 minutes ago, ttfn said:

I still think we’re about a 50:50 shot provided we win on Sunday. 
 

You can’t get odds on Sunday’s games yet but Liverpool are 1.29 to beat Burnley today - assuming a similar price for them against Palace (it will be shorter) and Chelsea against Villa (it will be longer), you get an implied chance of all 3 of those results going against us being 50%.
 

Not to mention that if Liverpool lose either game or (more unlikely) Chelsea lose by 3 then a draw is enough.

I agree. I have not resigned myself to 5th place either. We just need either Chelsea or Liverpool to drop points in one of their (combined) last three games amd beat Spurs. If we completely rout Spurs, we also have a chance to beat liverpool on GD/GF. 

 

538 has it at 40% chance of happening, which seems pretty fair. 

[Royston.]

Fa cup and 5th place(Europe league) is a brilliant season but I can't shake the disappointment of being top 4 all season and dropping out right at the end.....AGAIN

[goose2010]

Villa wont be no push overs for Chelsea on Sunday either. First time in front of their fans, Grealish will be up for it as currently Mount has he spot in the England team and Watkins will be looking to impress to. 

 

Their defence is usually pretty decent to. 

 

Champs league final less than a week away to and looks like Kante wont be playing either. 

 

Get an early goal and that will filter through to Villa park and to be honest i would much rather play a team like Spurs that will actually attack us rather than just playing on the counter where we have struggled this season. 

 

Looking forward to Sunday i must admit as i am happy with 5th and the Cup so what ever happens I'm sure it will have a few twists and turns. 

[srex9]

There is still hope. There were 6 games that we needed at least 1 result to go our way and so far none of them have. There are still 3 more of those games with Chelsea at Villa and Liverpool playing Burnley and Palace. At least one of those games is going to be tight and possibly a draw. We just have to ensure we give ourselves every chance vs Spurs. I'm not overly confident based on our home form, the fact we have to win and the fact teams like to counter us. Spurs have some of the best in that regard. 

 

However if we do miss out on top 4 with 66-69 points I can't hold it against the lads. If Liverpool win their last 2 games then it's been monumental, title winning form for them to oust us. I'm just happy we're amongst it causing them issues. And nothing can take away from the joy we've had this season.

 

The biggest one for me if we miss out on Top 4 is Youri. If we want to fight for it again we have to tie him down on a big contract. Pull out all the stops to get him. I know he's supposedly stalled on a new contract and offers have apparently been made to his agents. But I'm hoping that's all to get a better deal through us. He definitely loves it here and is thriving under Rogers. Ofcourse if he really does want to go then fair enough but I hope he wants to be part of the bigger project. Future captain 🤞

 

And loads of us writing off Vards. I've no doubt he'll be back firing next season. The Op has really taken it out of him, that much is obvious. He needs a good rest and a good pre season then I've no doubt he'll be back to last seasons form. A player of his level doesn't become surplus overnight, despite his age.