Relegation

[Chelmofox]

26 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Leeds are getting Sam, Ev are probably down with us 

Is this confirmed?

[Phil Bowman]

1 minute ago, Chelmofox said:

28 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Leeds are getting Sam, Ev are probably down with us 

Is this confirmed?

No - nobody knows yet who's getting relegated.

[Alf Bentley]

My current reckoning of survival odds & likely points ranges:

- West Ham 90% / 35-40 pts

- Leicester 60% / 34-37 pts

- Forest 60% / 34-37 pts

- Everton 50% / 33-36 pts

- Leeds 30% / 33-35 pts

- Southampton 10% / 27-32 pts

 

Of course, a single unexpected result could shift the odds: e.g. us winning at Fulham, Forest failing to beat Southampton, Leeds drawing at home to Newcastle...

 

- West Ham: look almost safe, but have 2 tough games, then their games against Brentford and Leeds come between or just after their Euro semis. Might still need a last-day result..... 

- Leicester: we have the form and ability to get a win and a draw out of the last 4, but might need 2 wins or a win and 2 draws....

- Forest: must beat Southampton and then pick up at least 2 draws

- Everton: will do well to get anything from next 2 (Brighton A, Man City H) but likely to get at least 4 points from last 2 (Wolves A, Bournemouth H)

- Leeds: likewise, 2 tough games up next (Man City A, Newcastle H), then West Ham A, Spurs H....hard to see them getting more than 4 points in total

- Southampton: must win at Forest and then get at least 7 points from their last 3 games.....surely gone, but hopefully not before a last hurrah at the City Ground 

 

 

Edited 3 May 2023 by Alf Bentley

[CosbehFox]

Leeds and Everton recently were missed chances to gain wins but we didn't lose. What really pisses me off is that we turn those results v Saints and Bournemouth into draws. Saints are all but relegated whilst we are four points better off and probably need a single point to stay up. Throw in Palace as well. 

 

Utterly frustrating. 

Edited 3 May 2023 by CosbehFox

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Sly said:

I don’t think West Ham are safe yet.

 

2 hours ago, Chelmofox said:

Interestingly, I think it’s likely West Ham dont get another point until our last game. Next 2 for them are the 2 manchesters then after that Brentford away. Then Leeds who will battle like crazy. It’s not out of the question. 

 

Maybe not likely but distinctly possible. Especially as the Brentford match comes between their two Euro semi-finals and the Leeds match comes less than 72 hours after their second Euro-semi, away to Alkmaar.

 

They could be playing extra-time in Holland on Thursday evening, either celebrating reaching a European final or soaking up a dispiriting defeat - and then playing Leeds on the Sunday at 1.30pm. 

 

I really hope that we don't go into the last day needing a win but with West Ham also needing a result to ensure safety.....  

[Tommy Fresh]

All set up nicely for both us and West Ham to need a point at least on the final day to guarantee safety.

[Aus Fox]

42 minutes ago, LCFCJohn said:

I’m not disagreeing with you on that. Though I would expect Everton to pick up more than a couple. Less likely with Leeds.

Out of interest, where do you think Everton will pick up their points? 

[Tuna]

24 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Leeds and Everton recently were missed chances to gain wins but we didn't loss. What really pisses me off is that we turn those results v Saints and Bournemouth into draws. Saints are all but relegated whilst we are four points better off and probably need a single point to stay up. Throw in Palace as well. 

 

Utterly frustrating. 

Yeah, the failure to get Smith or anyone competent in in the aftermath of Rodgers sacking was criminal, was any thought S&S were ever going to be good enough was laughable, we don't lose Bournemouth with Smith in charge IMO!

Edited 3 May 2023 by Tuna

[Alf Bentley]

Google just recommended a "top story" for me from the Filbert Way site......

 

"Leicester relegation certain as Amartey looks to future with positives to count despite 0-2 defeat vs. West Ham" 

 

I thought Big Dan had been making some unhelpful predictions. Turns out to have been Bobby Amartey talking about the U21s... 

[LCFCJohn]

4 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Out of interest, where do you think Everton will pick up their points? 

Possibly a point at Brighton but Wolves away is definitely good for a point if not 3 on their form and Bournemouth at home last game could go either way. All about opinions of course, they might get zero but if those were our fixtures, conservatively, I’d be expecting minimum 4. 

[Eskay]

Given how our players shit themselves at home once the crowd turns I really don't have a lot of faith in the West Ham fixture. 

[Chrysalis]

5 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

We’ve ****ed our two must wins, I just can’t see now how we stay up

They were more must not lose games as six pointers are.

[Chrysalis]

1 hour ago, Eskay said:

Given how our players shit themselves at home once the crowd turns I really don't have a lot of faith in the West Ham fixture. 

Dont get our crowd, they only seem to support when we winning, if we concede it noticeably goes quiet and we have the player heckling.

 

Reminds me of when sunderland were on netflix and players just wanted to leave that club due to the crowd.

[Reg Vardy]

West Ham is interesting, Man City a today, Man United h , Brentford a, then Leeds h then us away.....it is possibly both Leeds and our most winnable games, with conference 2 legger in the middle.....can't see them getting much from next three games, if they lost last two, they could well be in the mix.....

[john ridley]

As stated before we couldn't beat 2 teams that were  getting battered week in week out .Fulham are a good mid table team ,organised and hard to beat .Newcastle and liverpool,say no more and West Ham are better than both Everton and Leeds. We've  missed our chance only way we stay up is if others are worse than us in the last 4 games .

[Sol thewall Bamba]

18 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

They were more must not lose games as six pointers are.

Incorrect. This is the kind of loser mentality that covered up shit results that cost us Champions League twice in a row. 

[sacreblueits442]

18 hours ago, Matt said:

It always seems easier to find wins when playing with no pressure. I think it's quite dangerous playing teams with nothing to play for, there's no jeopardy for them.

...take the lead against them and and they are not too likely to push themselves as much into getting a result!!!

  Take a 2-0 lead and you can then manage the game as there is nothing else on it for them.

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, Tommy Fresh said:

All set up nicely for both us and West Ham to need a point at least on the final day to guarantee safety.

There is no love lost between the hierarchy of us and west ham - i wouldn't expect any favours from them but pragmatism may well come into play 

[SemperEadem]

6 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

There is no love lost between the hierarchy of us and west ham - i wouldn't expect any favours from them but pragmatism may well come into play 

What cracked off?

[filbertway]

Big Sam going to Leeds won't make a jot of difference, he's not got a bunch of lumps to work with. So if he sits back and invites pressure all game then they'll just continue to lose and concede goals.

[st albans fox]

Just now, SemperEadem said:

What cracked off?

post vichai's death. 'lady' brady wrote a pretty insensitive article in the press. 

that didnt go down well in our boardroom

 

subsequently it was reported that we refused to loan slimani to them (because we didnt want to deal with them) and also made them sit about ten rows back in the directors box rather than occupying the front row.  i guess water has flown under the bridge since then (and they've returned to row A) but methinks if they had an opportunity to send us down the word from high up would be to not fail.  

[RowlattsFox]

Be great if we saw a return to player managers rather than giving the likes of Big Sam money for nothing  

[Ric Flair]

I'm not confident anymore. I don't see how anyone can have genuine belief we will stay up, it's now in the lap of the gods and it will swing back and forth a few more tines no doubt.

 

My biggest concern is we just cannot show one iota of resolve or unity to get our noses in front in games and hold on to it. We have to let teams go 1 up and often have a few other chances to put us out of sight before we get back in to it, that scares the shit out of me for the Liverpool and Newcastle games. Our goal difference could take an absolute splattering. 

 

I need to see us be a bit more heroic in our team play, starting this Monday because if we fall back in to the relegation zone with those two horror games to come then I think it's curtains.

 

And don't even get me started on needing a result vs West Ham. The emotional scars of must win games in recent years and in light of how pathetic we are this season, the pressure of this would be unbearable for the players and fans. Oh my god.

[iancognito]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

post vichai's death. 'lady' brady wrote a pretty insensitive article in the press. 

that didnt go down well in our boardroom

 

subsequently it was reported that we refused to loan slimani to them (because we didnt want to deal with them) and also made them sit about ten rows back in the directors box rather than occupying the front row.  i guess water has flown under the bridge since then (and they've returned to row A) but methinks if they had an opportunity to send us down the word from high up would be to not fail.  

The column she wrote was after we'd sacked Claudio and she was saying he spent as much on wine as the compensation he paid out

 

https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/2018/5/3/17314332/west-ham-owners-could-be-frozen-out-of-leicesters-boardroom

 

Not sure about after the crash but I definitely remember the West Ham home game on the day of the crash Vichai was up in the box not his usual front row seat.

[Fox92]

4 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Leeds are getting Sam, Ev are probably down with us 

Last time Big Sam was brought in to keep a team up he got relegated so I wouldn't worry too much.