Corona Virus

[Charl91]

I'm actually really enjoying this whole lockdown m'larkey.

 

It means I've been getting lots of exercise done, especially running. My 10k time has improved no end. I put it down to the extra motivation, since I've been dedicating all my runs to the NHS.

[Nod.E]

13 minutes ago, reynard said:

Hope this link works but this is a very interesting break down of the deaths in England (not whole UK).

A good indication of time lag but it is failt clear that after around 4 or 5 days from the date of death the new numbers reported for that day fall off significantly. Obviously we need to wait and see the time lag effect for the weekend but these do look to be pointing in the right direction.

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1252223911716098049/photo/1

That rate of decline is encouraging. If we take 5 day lag as accounting for the vast majority of deaths and only take 5 days ago and previous as total numbers, we're basically back down to where we were at the beginning of April (582 on 14/04 vs. 562 on 01/04) These fall either side of an 803 peak on 08/04. A perfectly symmetrical 6 days either side of the peak. 

 

By that logic we'll be down to single figures in around 2 weeks from the 14th (28/04) by which point we'll have big decisions to make. Perhaps there may be more of a gradual curve this side of the peak as numbers decline. 

 

But, we have longer than that in lockdown. It seems highly likely that we will be down to single figures by the end of the current lockdown dates. If you can't loosen lockdown then, when can you? What happens if it just balloons again?

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, containing a disease which is seemingly in vast volumes totally invisible is likely to be a non starter.

Edited 20 April 2020 by Nod.E

[reynard]

2 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

That rate of decline is encouraging. If we take 5 day lag as accounting for the vast majority of deaths and only take 5 days ago and previous as total numbers, we're basically back down to where we were at the beginning of April (582 on 14/04 vs. 562 on 01/04) These fall either side of an 803 peak on 08/04. A perfectly symmetrical 6 days either side of the peak. 

 

By that logic we'll be down to single figures in around 2 weeks, by which point we'll have big decisions to make. If you can't loosen lockdown then, when can you? What happens if it just balloons again?

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, containing a disease which is seemingly in vast volumes totally invisible is likely to be a non starter.

Yes I thought that too. Obviously very sad so many are dying but it does look, fingers crossed, as if 8th April may have been the peak. Really need the next two days figures to be sure though to see the weekend time lag.

[Freeman's Wharfer]

27 minutes ago, worth_the_wait said:

On today's UK briefing, some chappie was asking about the wisdom of allowing those fans from Madrid to travel to Liverpool for the Champions League match.

 

But we allowed 3,000 Villa fans to come over to Leicester that same week, and no telling what diseases those Brummie had. 

Been a bit of a missed point. The Midlands was the hot spot for a while and we had 30,000+ at Leicester vs Aston Villa in that week. Could be coincidence but also pretty logical the way this virus spreads.

[Sampson]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Sweden's epidemiologists still seem to be sticking by the "it's no worse than the flu. Death rate is only 0.1% line". I think he's almost certainly wrong, but I was just surprised there are still experts still maintaining this and not just some guy on the internet.

 

Quote

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based.

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only.

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product."

The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better.

The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact.

The paper was very much too pessimistic.

Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway.

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown.

The results will eventually be similar for all countries.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%.

At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

I'll be interested to see the results of the Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier, seeing as that's an isolated area where everyone has been tested and most are likely to be younger and fit (as opposed to cruise ships which are likely to have older more vulnerable patients anyway).

Edited 20 April 2020 by Sampson

[fuchsntf]

2 minutes ago, reynard said:

Hope this link works but this is a very interesting break down of the deaths in England (not whole UK).

A good indication of time lag but it is failt clear that after around 4 or 5 days from the date of death the new numbers reported for that day fall off significantly. Obviously we need to wait and see the time lag effect for the weekend but these do look to be pointing in the right direction.

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1252223911716098049/photo/1

Interesting..but its not the daily figures that will be helpfull,to understand trends...We are still so deep into this crisis that trends,even Real hopes can only be really translated & understood in Weekly terms. Some People will be so much Hanging and hoping on these daily trends,to make false Thoughts and ideas that improvement and return to normality  is imminent...The media and Political reporting IMO,is often too hectic,to sell an unrealistic positive upturn on a irrelevant 24hr cycle.

 

 

[Freeman's Wharfer]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

What is it, exactly, that you are angry about? 

 

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

I didn't say I wasn't angry, I just asked why you were. 

 

And yes I saw the article printed in The Sunday Times yesterday. I've also read the Government response pointing out that it was mostly lies and generally rebuking everything it said. 

Genuinely interested in light of some of your contributions to this thread...

 

Without either a) simply copying and pasting the government’s PR response or b) using a broad brush term about the media or a political belief - can you explain what you have been particularly happy about with the government’s response to coronavirus and why none of the findings in The Times report particularly concern you?

[yorkie1999]

20 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

You conveniently missed out most of the response:

 

Claim – On the third Friday in January Coronavirus was already spreading around the world but the government ‘brushed aside’ the threat in an hour-long COBR meeting and said the risk to the UK public was ‘low’.

Response – At a very basic level, this is wrong. The meeting was on the fourth Friday in January. The article also misrepresents the Government’s awareness of Covid 19, and the action we took before this point. Health Secretary Matt Hancock was first alerted to Covid 19 on 3 January and spoke to Departmental officials on 6th Jan before receiving written advice from the UK Health Security Team.

He brought the issue to the attention of the Prime Minister and they discussed Covid 19 on 7 January. The government’s scientific advisory groups started to meet in mid-January and Mr Hancock instituted daily coronavirus meetings. He updated Parliament as soon as possible, on January 23rd.

The risk level was set to “Low” because at the time our scientific advice was that the risk level to the UK public at that point was low. The first UK case was not until 31 January. The specific meaning of “public health risk” refers to the risk there is to the public at precisely that point. The risk was also higher than it had been before - two days earlier it had been increased “Very Low” to “Low” in line with clinical guidance from the Chief Medical Officer.

The WHO did not formally declare that coronavirus was a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) until 30 January, and only characterised it as a global pandemic more than a month later, on 11 March. The UK was taking action and working to improve its preparedness from early January

I didn’t conveniently forget, but as I said the opening statement lays down what the intention is . A blame game that’s not really required yet. 

[Dahnsouff]

2 hours ago, bovril said:

To be fair some people were saying "criticism needs to wait" back in March, before the government implemented stricter measures, which came, apparently, after they saw models suggesting their approach was going to cost thousands more lives. At that time the private sector was moving faster than they were. If we'd kept calm and carried on while quickly becoming by far the worst hit country in Europe, would we still have had to wait for the right time to criticise?

Generally there's not much worse than death. And no 'right time' to criticise authorities for not doing their best to minimise it. 

Sorry reread this and despite my initial agreement, there are some fairly conflicting arguments in this. The private sector can always be more agile/rapid than the Public Sector.

Think I got a little lost on the bit in bold, but I assume you are suggesting we should be free to critique (And importantly expect a response) at any point?

Sorry if I misunderstood!

[st albans fox]

31 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

That rate of decline is encouraging. If we take 5 day lag as accounting for the vast majority of deaths and only take 5 days ago and previous as total numbers, we're basically back down to where we were at the beginning of April (582 on 14/04 vs. 562 on 01/04) These fall either side of an 803 peak on 08/04. A perfectly symmetrical 6 days either side of the peak. 

 

By that logic we'll be down to single figures in around 2 weeks from the 14th (28/04) by which point we'll have big decisions to make. Perhaps there may be more of a gradual curve this side of the peak as numbers decline. 

 

But, we have longer than that in lockdown. It seems highly likely that we will be down to single figures by the end of the current lockdown dates. If you can't loosen lockdown then, when can you? What happens if it just balloons again?

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, containing a disease which is seemingly in vast volumes totally invisible is likely to be a non starter.

I’m sure that the downslope will be a softer curve than the upslope .....Italy and Spain are about ten days ahead of us and still showing daily numbers in the region of 400/450. (And that’s with a tighter lockdown than us).  no chance we are in single figures for a long time and I suspect sustained single figures won’t be seen until we have a vaccine in place. 

[fuchsntf]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Sweden's epidemiologists still seem to be sticking by the "it's no worse than the flu. Death rate is only 0.1% line". I think he's almost certainly wrong, but I was just surprised there are still experts still maintaining this and not just some guy on the internet.

 

 

Lets be honest,we even intelligent Joe bloggs between us, Really Don t know,which was/is/will be the right path to take..Across the board,we have blindly put our faith,on the various experts & Political leaders Comments & suggestions and History has shown,they have Not been the most stabile and knowledgable in their Advisory capacity...We are Happy Not to question Any Comments ,statements ,advice being made....

Which Country has got it right..!!!? 

"Thinking" something is certainly wrong, doesnt mean it is,or our various countries paths are totally following the right and obvious paths..!!

I am an Open,relaxed  Happy soul,but also somewhat discretely cynical.....Sweden produced Abba,They might Meet their Waterloo,or found the right path by realising The name of the game..

[String fellow]

COVID-19 has joined the likes of anthrax, leprosy, plague, rabies and smallpox on the list of notifiable diseases in the UK. If that doesn't persuade folk to observe social distancing, nothing will.

[joachim1965]

22 minutes ago, String fellow said:

COVID-19 has joined the likes of anthrax, leprosy, plague, rabies and smallpox on the list of notifiable diseases in the UK. If that doesn't persuade folk to observe social distancing, nothing will.

You're right, nothing will.

[KrefelderFox666]

22 minutes ago, String fellow said:

COVID-19 has joined the likes of anthrax, leprosy, plague, rabies and smallpox on the list of notifiable diseases in the UK. If that doesn't persuade folk to observe social distancing, nothing will.

When you said joined the likes of Anthrax I was hoping for a festival announcement. Covid 19 headlining supported by Anthrax

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, Salisbury Fox said:

For the opportunity of balance, have you read the Government response to the Times article? 
 

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/?fbclid=IwAR2_tmpCjYQXAgOlB7b9_pbH7hh4Rlg7glThCvxN8OX4jMTqKnhQTjwW878
 

 

Never in my life seen a response by a government body like something to a trip advisor complaint. 
 

We had a 48 hour delay for PPE coming in from Turkey. Same organisation in relation to PPE rewrote the rules to address a shortage. Rather than sort the storage. It’s been said some trusts are better prepared with large stock. Surely we can add the numbers together and get trusts with less stock provided with some from those with plenty. Better for a four hour journey by road than sea and plane. 
 

Hancock spent end of last week saying he’s concerned about potential cancer patients stepping forward and said in the same interview that cancer treatment is ongoing. Well it’s all but stopped except extreme cases. That’s before we get to his presenting of the care badge as some new thing when it’s been out for a year now. 
 

A complete fudged testing policy which means NHS staff asking for a test but showing no symptoms being refused a test. Yet it’s an accepted fact that you can show no symptoms and still be infectious. 
 

Ive picked three points which have irk me in the last five days. If the government is not held on this now, then we continue where we are. Fully in line to become the worlds worst affected country by it.
 

Ultimately there’s a complete recurrence to throw their hands up and admit some areas have badly performed. Others bed capacity excellent.

 

Democracy process when a leading party is debated, examined and held to account. Regardless of colour to the party that rings true. 

[CosbehFox]

5 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

I can’t imagine Bergamo being the most polluted area in Italy to be honest so not sure how accurate that is.

Be surprised how big the city is for the manufacture of construction materials 

[Dahnsouff]

People make me laugh. The whole we want answers now mob, get their voice from The Times (of all places!), and the government spend time addressing the points raised. 
Time better spent negotiating for PPE?
And. Y bugbear time, are people seriously oblivious to the fact we live in a capitalist world? Did anyone hear that the US cancelled a shipment of PPE to Canada? The fiasco with the Turkish PPE?

 

You get outbid, you lose. You pay too much, you lose later. 
 

 

[Nod.E]

45 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I’m sure that the downslope will be a softer curve than the upslope .....Italy and Spain are about ten days ahead of us and still showing daily numbers in the region of 400/450. (And that’s with a tighter lockdown than us).  no chance we are in single figures for a long time and I suspect sustained single figures won’t be seen until we have a vaccine in place. 

Without having numbers to hand, didn't Italy and Spain also have bigger peaks than we did?

 

Agree it's likely to be a softer curve coming down than it was coming up. Is hasn't been so far but I anticipate the decline rate will slow by virtue of the virus still existing rather than starting from nothing on the other side of the peak.

 

Sustained is the key word there. I think achieving single figures isn't that far away but I doubt the reality is we'll be able to sustain that for a very long time. I imagine the government takes my view which is that we will need to accept a small number in ongoing life in the next 12-18 months. Not sure what that number is, mind.

[CosbehFox]

Can always quote next time like 

[Dahnsouff]

When did facts become less useful than social media? 

[Freeman's Wharfer]

No point criticising or calling for a manager’s head midway through a season. We should all be getting behind the team and not questioning anything mid-season. We can do the post-morgen once we’ve been relegated and are preparing for life in The Championship so that we’ve learnt the lessons for next time around.

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, Freeman's Wharfer said:

No point criticising or calling for a manager’s head midway through a season. We should all be getting behind the team and not questioning anything mid-season. We can do the post-morgen once we’ve been relegated and are preparing for life in The Championship so that we’ve learnt the lessons for next time around.

Quite right. Might end up with Peter Taylor....

[st albans fox]

16 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Without having numbers to hand, didn't Italy and Spain also have bigger peaks than we did?

 

Agree it's likely to be a softer curve coming down than it was coming up. Is hasn't been so far but I anticipate the decline rate will slow by virtue of the virus still existing rather than starting from nothing on the other side of the peak.

 

Sustained is the key word there. I think achieving single figures isn't that far away but I doubt the reality is we'll be able to sustain that for a very long time. I imagine the government takes my view which is that we will need to accept a small number in ongoing life in the next 12-18 months. Not sure what that number is, mind.

Possibly eggs and apples 

our max daily number seems to be around 800 but that doesn’t include care homes and if Italy/Spain do then our peak could well have been higher than theirs ....

 

just can’t see a single figure day this side of autumn at the earliest .......

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

I'm actually really enjoying this whole lockdown m'larkey.

 

It means I've been getting lots of exercise done, especially running. My 10k time has improved no end. I put it down to the extra motivation, since I've been dedicating all my runs to the NHS.

I should have guessed I'd see a post like this ffs 

[Carl the Llama]

Imagine thinking that a few blokes pointing out governmental failings on a football forum is somehow detrimental to the nation's handling of the virus.  As if me pointing out that it may have helped slow the onset if we implemented temperature screening at airports when cases started showing up in Europe (as far as I know we've done nothing in this regard) is somehow going to collapse the NHS' capacity to handle cases any more than a decade of austerity and stagnating funding.