Corona Virus

[Innovindil]

35 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The treasury and b of e would have been in deep discussions over this 

I'd be worried if they weren't. 

[ClaphamFox]

45 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The treasury and b of e would have been in deep discussions over this 

If anything it implies that Sunak's budget is going to be more radical than most experts have predicted. I'm expecting some eye-catching measures later.

Edited 11 March 2020 by ClaphamFox

[yorkie1999]

2 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

Hopefully the supply chain is robust enough to work even with lots of people off work. 

 

 

No chance, we live in a just in time era, nobody produces stock because it's dead money sitting on shelves.

[Sly]

17 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

No chance, we live in a just in time era, nobody produces stock because it's dead money sitting on shelves.

Lean manufacturing and stock ratios. Got to love them. 

[yorkie1999]

17 minutes ago, Sly said:

Lean manufacturing and stock ratios. Got to love them. 

Yep, and the accountants that dreamt it up should now be held responsible.  

[foxy boxing]

I am not happy that anyone got the virus but if it did happen to someone then it is good that it has happened to a cabinet minister!. now they can have some inkling of what it is like for ordinary people living in this country and if it makes them a better person overall for having gone through something ordinary people in this country are going through then at least something positive would come out of the terrible situation.

[Crinklyfox]

It's common in many Asian countries for people to wear face masks or respirator masks when they are ill and in public so I suspect that many families had them at the ready when news of the virus in their countries was revealed.  Not so in Europe.  I expect that there will be a general dash to buy masks as soon as the numbers of infections significantly increase.

 

There are three grades of mask, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3.  If you're considering buying a mask then I understand that FFP3 is the only grade designed to stop viruses.  There's already a shortage with some suppliers out of stock and others restricting sales.

[foxile5]

Just now, Crinklyfox said:

 

 

There are three grades of mask, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3.  If you're considering buying a mask then I understand that FFP3 is the only grade designed to stop viruses.  There's already a shortage with some suppliers out of stock and others restricting sales.

We all know that FFP stops nothing, and I'm not playing in the Champions League next year, anyways.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

So the rate of infection has started to slow in China, what percentage of their population has been infected? 

[st albans fox]

8 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

So the rate of infection has started to slow in China, what percentage of their population has been infected? 

The point about China is that they effectively self isolated the whole frigging country for 2-4 weeks !!!!

 

it seems we aren’t prepared to do that in the west ....

[davieG]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The point about China is that they effectively self isolated the whole frigging country for 2-4 weeks !!!!

 

it seems we aren’t prepared to do that in the west ....

We don't even seem bothered to take even simple precautions like restricting travel to and from other seriously affected countries not even bothering to test those that do arrive and letting them into contact with so many others like the Beaumont Leas school.

 

So far Leicester seems to be only mildly affected but this school issue could blow the City and County wide open.

 

Madness.

[ClaphamFox]

11 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The point about China is that they effectively self isolated the whole frigging country for 2-4 weeks !!!!

 

it seems we aren’t prepared to do that in the west ....

I had an interesting conversation this morning. I was told that my firm is holding back on asking people to work from home because behavioural science shows that when entire workforces are asked to do this, people work well initially but become fatigued/distracted by being at home after a certain time and productivity falls steeply. The longer the time people are asked to work from home, the bigger the hit to productivity. Which may explain why the government is holding back, too.

 

 

Edited 11 March 2020 by ClaphamFox

[davieG]

Just now, ClaphamFox said:

I had an interesting conversation this morning. I was told that my firm is holding back on asking people to work from home because it behavioural science shows that when entire workforces are asked to do this, people work well initially but become fatigued/distracted by being at home after a certain time and productivity falls steeply. The longer the time people are asked to work from home, the bigger the hit to productivity. Which may explain why the government is holding back, too.

 

 

You could easily argue the longer they stay at work and exposed the more productivity will be affected if they all get infected and are out of action for 2-4 weeks or more.

[Xen]

8 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

I had an interesting conversation this morning. I was told that my firm is holding back on asking people to work from home because behavioural science shows that when entire workforces are asked to do this, people work well initially but become fatigued/distracted by being at home after a certain time and productivity falls steeply. The longer the time people are asked to work from home, the bigger the hit to productivity. Which may explain why the government is holding back, too.

Not just productivity, but if everyone is locked down/quarantined then the longer that goes on the higher the risk of people breaking quarantine and riots etc., which if that coincides with the peak of the virus then that could be devastating.

 

Getting the timing right is a very difficult balancing act of course, but the longer they hold off now the more likely a quarantine will be effective for its full duration. Supposedly.

[Ollie93]

14 minutes ago, davieG said:

We don't even seem bothered to take even simple precautions like restricting travel to and from other seriously affected countries not even bothering to test those that do arrive and letting them into contact with so many others like the Beaumont Leas school.

 

So far Leicester seems to be only mildly affected but this school issue could blow the City and County wide open.

 

Madness.

The Beaumont Leys School is a madness, why on earth did they let them go back too school for 1.5 days before sending them home!?!? 

 

I'm not one to panic, but we have to get a grip on this and be proactive, not reactive.

[Ollie93]

1 minute ago, Xen said:

Not just productivity, but if everyone is locked down/quarantined then the longer that goes on the higher the risk of people breaking quarantine and riots etc., which if that coincides with the peak of the virus then that could be devastating.

 

Getting the timing right is a very difficult balancing act of course, but the longer they hold off now the more likely a quarantine will be effective for its full duration. Supposedly.

I'm not so sure rioting will become a thing. The best method is to make people fearful that stepping outside will result in them getting the virus. It's what is needed.

[davieG]

5 minutes ago, Xen said:

Not just productivity, but if everyone is locked down/quarantined then the longer that goes on the higher the risk of people breaking quarantine and riots etc., which if that coincides with the peak of the virus then that could be devastating.

 

Getting the timing right is a very difficult balancing act of course, but the longer they hold off now the more likely a quarantine will be effective for its full duration. Supposedly.

But we don't seem to have even a partial focused lock down.

 

All we seem to have is wash your hands and reactive responses to individual occurrences or have I missed something

[RowlattsFox]

I am getting worried, predominantly because I have my wedding on the 21st followed by a trip to Budapest on 23rd. From a selfish point of view a total shutdown will be hard to take.

 

Either way I hope any decisions to travel will be taken out my hands, so I have no decision to make. My fear is going and getting quarantined abroad.

[Xen]

5 minutes ago, davieG said:

But we don't seem to have even a partial focused lock down.

 

All we seem to have is wash your hands and reactive responses to individual occurrences or have I missed something

Thats the point. We don't have anything yet because they're waiting for the right moment to start. If they started all these more drastic measures right now then they'd become less effective over time - right when they're needed the most.

[stripeyfox]

12 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

I am getting worried, predominantly because I have my wedding on the 21st followed by a trip to Budapest on 23rd. From a selfish point of view a total shutdown will be hard to take.

 

Either way I hope any decisions to travel will be taken out my hands, so I have no decision to make. My fear is going and getting quarantined abroad.

Hopefully your wedding can go ahead - do you have insurance ?

 

[RowlattsFox]

4 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Hopefully your wedding can go ahead - do you have insurance ?

 

Unfortunately not  

 

 

[EnderbyFox]

 

[Voll Blau]

Canned a planned trip to Germany this weekend. Absolutely gutted and I'm not one to ever buy into hysteria or moral panic, but feels like the right thing to do (all three games we were meant to go to will now be played behind closed doors anyway - though we'd still have had a banging time with mates over there no doubt).

 

Not arsed about getting it myself, and I'm as hygienic as the next person, but I am worried about who I could potentially pass it on to. Think we're all going to have to weight risk heavily over reward when it comes to decisions about travel, social occasions etc in the near future sadly.

[davieG]

35 minutes ago, Xen said:

Thats the point. We don't have anything yet because they're waiting for the right moment to start. If they started all these more drastic measures right now then they'd become less effective over time - right when they're needed the most.

I don't think testing people coming from Italy before they return to their communities for example could be classed as drastic more like sensible and pragmatic and surely needed, re my post about Beaumont School

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Not sure what you mean by the bit that I’ve highlighted. A log scale is exactly how to view a suspected exponential function as the log of an exponential is a linear function (straight line graph). For Italy it looks like a change of slope (reduction) about 8 days ago, probably due to measure that have taken.

Yes indeed that was my thought, but couldn't be bothered to argue.  Perfectly decent chart.