Corona Virus

[Wymsey]

Could be a massive headache (no pun intended) for schools and workplaces.

Some people could use this virus as an excuse to stay away from such places for a little while.

[stripeyfox]

6 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Where are all these old folk with 'serious underlying health issues' getting it from? It's not like they're more likely to be on public transport or in offices, theatres, football games, etc. Is it because it is being spread by huge numbers of people who already have it but have either no symptoms or symptoms so mild that they haven't been to the doctors or self-isolated? If that's the case, the mortality rate is likely to be much lower than currently reported.

Probably from GP surgeries, hospitals, clinics etc. That's where they tend to hang out (if they're anything like my old man!)

 

[ClaphamFox]

2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Probably from GP surgeries, hospitals, clinics etc. That's where they tend to hang out (if they're anything like my old man!)

 

Which would imply that those places are doing a terrible job at isolating known cases, or that there are loads of people visiting and working in those places who have coronavirus but haven't been diagnosed...

[FoxesDeb]

17 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It is positive as every day where the spread isn't huge buys us more time, gives us time for hospitals to prepare, research to be undertaken and takes us a day closer to the start of the non-flu season. 

 

Genuine question, has everyone who's reading this and their families changed their behaviour in some way based on Public Health advice given out last week (eg hand washing)? It would be interesting to know just how effective this advice is seen as our public health services are revered around the world. 

I'm a bit of a germaphobe anyway so I'm always washing my hands, especially when I'm in the office and when I come home. But my other half has upped his hand washing, mainly to keep me happy I think, same as my children. I find it quite disturbing that people have to be advised to carry out basic hygiene tbh, but if it helps it's obviously a good thing. 

I haven't been panic buying, but like stripy I have added a few extras to my normal shopping, mainly things my children can make easily for themselves in case I can't. 

On a side note, as someone who needs to receive regular treatment at the General, I'm a bit nervous of what will happen if the NHS gets swamped. 

[Captain...]

34 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It is positive as every day where the spread isn't huge buys us more time, gives us time for hospitals to prepare, research to be undertaken and takes us a day closer to the start of the non-flu season. 

 

Genuine question, has everyone who's reading this and their families changed their behaviour in some way based on Public Health advice given out last week (eg hand washing)? It would be interesting to know just how effective this advice is seen as our public health services are revered around the world. 

I wash my hands as soon as I get home, but other than that not much. I mainly work from home and the company I'm currently working has put travel restrictions in place. My daughter is in nursery and my other half commutes to work on the Heathrow branch of the Piccadilly line so it's not really me I'm worried about. Apart from hand washing/sanitising as soon you get off public transport and trying not to touch your face there's not much else to do.

[Izzy]

I'm due to run an open training course tomorrow with 12 participants from different clients of ours.

 

4 have contacted me already today to say they're not coming because their companies don't want them to partake in any external meetings atm.

 

At this rate I'll just be training myself 

[WigstonWanderer]

Hands Ashley

 

 

 

[MPH]

56 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Where are all these old folk with 'serious underlying health issues' getting it from? It's not like they're more likely to be on public transport or in offices, theatres, football games, etc. Is it because it is being spread by huge numbers of people who already have it but have either no symptoms or symptoms so mild that they haven't been to the doctors or self-isolated? If that's the case, the mortality rate is likely to be much lower than currently reported.

they might be getting it from relatives... of the 350+ cases ( so far) o my 6 have died so there’s lots of people beating this and lots who don’t have the underlying issues you mention

[ClaphamFox]

1 minute ago, MPH said:

they might be getting it from relatives... of the 350+ cases ( so far) o my 6 have died so there’s lots of people beating this and lots who don’t have the underlying issues you mention

Yes, that's what I suspect. Loads of people have it but aren't getting sick from it.

[Xen]

10 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Yes, that's what I suspect. Loads of people have it but aren't getting sick from it.

Which is in equal parts terrifying (you could carry it and pass to someone more vulnerable without being aware of it) and a relief (the # of cases is being underreported so the death rate is actually much lower, and for many they won't experience any ill effects at all).

 

Have there been many cases of people catching it but not being able to trace the source? Most positive cases so far seem to have had recent links to China or Italy, or they've been able to link it to other known cases. 

[davieG]

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/38-pupils-4-staff-leicester-3935657

 

Thirty-eight pupils and four staff from a Leicester school are in coronavirus self-isolation after returning from a trip to Italy.

The teacher and students from Beaumont Leys School have been advised to take the precautionary measures for 14 days.

A spokesman for Leicester City Council, the local education authority, said the school remains open as normal.

They say the children and staff being sent home is "a precautionary measure" following to Public Health England (PHE) guidelines.

But parents who have children at the school are now calling for the place to be closed down and deep-cleaned, as they claim students and staff who went on the trip attended the school as usual on Monday.

A Leicester City Council spokesperson said: “Following the return of a school trip from southern Italy by 38 pupils and four staff, all those involved have been advised to take the precautionary measure to self-isolate for 14 days.

“This takes account of the recently updated PHE guidance, which advises this approach for anyone who has returned to this country from Italy.

"This is a precautionary measure and the school remains open as normal.”

One mother, who did not want to be named, said she is keeping her son at home until the school is cleaned.

“The party came back on Sunday, went into school yesterday and even for a bit this morning,” she said.

“Then they told to go home and self-isolate. How can that be right?

“The school have not told us anything officially. It has created a lot of anxiety, stress, worry and confusion.

“I am not exposing my child to the risk of coronavirus and there are other parents doing the same.”

Another mum, who also did not want to be named, said she wanted to take her son out of school but felt obliged to let him attend.

“It’s very confusing and worrying,” she said.

“I don’t want to get taken to court for not taking my child to school but then again I don’t want to him to be at risk.

“Everyone has said that the staff and pupils came back on Sunday then went into school yesterday and a for a while today then were told to go home.

“The whole situation is creating fear and panic with a lot of us parents and the school are not helping by not telling us anything.”

We contacted the school for a comment on the situation but were referred to the city council, the local education authority.

The school has handed a letter to pupils and put a copy of the letter on its website.

The letter says: "Dear parents and carers, We have taken a number of phone calls today to enquire about changes to advice for people returning from Italy.

"We would like to thank parents for their patience whilst we spoke to the relevant authorities. We have been in touch with the Local Authority and they have issued a statement."

The statement quoted is the one issued to us by the city council.

We have we put the parents' concerns to the city council.

In response, the city council said: "Deep cleaning is advised where there has been a confirmed case of someone with COVID-19 – this isn’t the case in this school. The school have previously stepped up their cleaning regime anyway, using sanitiser on places such as door handles, hand rails, toilets and taps.

"The advice from the Department of Health and Social Care for travellers has changed over the last 24 hours to reflect the rapidly-changing situation in Italy. Recently updated guidance advises self-isolation for people who have returned since March 9, but as a safety precaution this advice is being extended to the pupils and staff who returned a day earlier."

PHE guidance on trips to Italy has changed in the last 24 hours.

Travellers who returned from areas of Northern Italy that were under containment measures between February 19 and March 8 2020 should self-isolate for 14 days. If they develop symptoms they should contact NHS111.

Travellers who returned from the rest of Italy before March 9 2020 do not need to undertake any special measures, but if they develop symptoms they should self-isolate and call NHS 111.

It is believed the Beaumont Leys School party returned on Sunday March 8.

 

 

 

Seems pretty daft to let them all attend school before sending them home. Isn't it about time all travels from highly infected countries are test on re-entry while you have them all in one place?

 

 

[rachhere]

52 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I'm due to run an open training course tomorrow with 12 participants from different clients of ours.

 

4 have contacted me already today to say they're not coming because their companies don't want them to partake in any external meetings atm.

 

At this rate I'll just be training myself 

Can the training that you offer be delivered online? You are obviously a smart guy - I am guessing you are thinking of contingency plans already.

[Jon the Hat]

 

Its seems if you look at ir on a log scale we are on the same trajectory as Italy, only 13.5 days behind.

Edited 10 March 2020 by Jon the Hat

[Izzy]

19 minutes ago, rachhere said:

Can the training that you offer be delivered online? You are obviously a smart guy - I am guessing you are thinking of contingency plans already.

You're too kind  (or you've got me confused with someone else )

 

This particular training needs to be face to face and in the room unfortunately. It's less about me sharing information and more about the participants practicing their skills in pairs with me listening in and giving them feedback (impossible to do over VC with a group that size).

 

I have had to be creative with some stuff that's being postponed recently though, and some tech company clients are so used to doing stuff over VC that it's quite an easy and convenient alternative for them.

 

Interesting times!

[stripeyfox]

17 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

Its seems if you look at ir on a log scale we are on the same trajectory as Italy, only 13.5 days behind.

Shit, that's worrying 

[rachhere]

1 minute ago, Izzy said:

You're too kind  (or you've got me confused with someone else )

 

This particular training needs to be face to face and in the room unfortunately. It's less about me sharing information and more about the participants practicing their skills in pairs with me listening in and giving them feedback (impossible to do over VC with a group that size).

 

I have had to be creative with some stuff that's being postponed recently though, and some tech company clients are so used to doing stuff over VC that it's quite an easy and convenient alternative for them.

 

Interesting times!

Haha, not at all!

 

We do a lot of distance learning courses, and I know with one of the programmes we use it's possible to have virtual breakout rooms, and you can even record content from those breakouts to listen and feedback later. As you say though, probably best to put that particular training to one side for now. 

[Lionator]

39 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

Its seems if you look at ir on a log scale we are on the same trajectory as Italy, only 13.5 days behind.

A log scale really isn't the best way to measure this and graphs like this can be manipulated to make things look a lot better or worse depending on a person's intention. If you used an exponential or lineal curve you'll see that we're below where Italy were at this stage by quite a long way. We have more thorough testing than Italy did at this stage and crucially those 13.5 give us more time to test and prepare in comparison to Italy. A lot of accounts from Italy indicate that people weren't taking government recommendations seriously AT ALL at the start, whereas I feel that people in this country are a lot more aware of self-isolation advice as well as public health advice (hand washing does work) even though there are still a number of it's only flu bro morons. 

 

I could be wrong but I would be surprised if it got as bad as Italy, that's not to say that it won't be bad. 

Edited 10 March 2020 by Lionator

[Royston.]

55 minutes ago, davieG said:

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/38-pupils-4-staff-leicester-3935657

 

Thirty-eight pupils and four staff from a Leicester school are in coronavirus self-isolation after returning from a trip to Italy.

The teacher and students from Beaumont Leys School have been advised to take the precautionary measures for 14 days.

A spokesman for Leicester City Council, the local education authority, said the school remains open as normal.

They say the children and staff being sent home is "a precautionary measure" following to Public Health England (PHE) guidelines.

But parents who have children at the school are now calling for the place to be closed down and deep-cleaned, as they claim students and staff who went on the trip attended the school as usual on Monday.

A Leicester City Council spokesperson said: “Following the return of a school trip from southern Italy by 38 pupils and four staff, all those involved have been advised to take the precautionary measure to self-isolate for 14 days.

“This takes account of the recently updated PHE guidance, which advises this approach for anyone who has returned to this country from Italy.

"This is a precautionary measure and the school remains open as normal.”

One mother, who did not want to be named, said she is keeping her son at home until the school is cleaned.

“The party came back on Sunday, went into school yesterday and even for a bit this morning,” she said.

“Then they told to go home and self-isolate. How can that be right?

“The school have not told us anything officially. It has created a lot of anxiety, stress, worry and confusion.

“I am not exposing my child to the risk of coronavirus and there are other parents doing the same.”

Another mum, who also did not want to be named, said she wanted to take her son out of school but felt obliged to let him attend.

“It’s very confusing and worrying,” she said.

“I don’t want to get taken to court for not taking my child to school but then again I don’t want to him to be at risk.

“Everyone has said that the staff and pupils came back on Sunday then went into school yesterday and a for a while today then were told to go home.

“The whole situation is creating fear and panic with a lot of us parents and the school are not helping by not telling us anything.”

We contacted the school for a comment on the situation but were referred to the city council, the local education authority.

The school has handed a letter to pupils and put a copy of the letter on its website.

The letter says: "Dear parents and carers, We have taken a number of phone calls today to enquire about changes to advice for people returning from Italy.

"We would like to thank parents for their patience whilst we spoke to the relevant authorities. We have been in touch with the Local Authority and they have issued a statement."

The statement quoted is the one issued to us by the city council.

We have we put the parents' concerns to the city council.

In response, the city council said: "Deep cleaning is advised where there has been a confirmed case of someone with COVID-19 – this isn’t the case in this school. The school have previously stepped up their cleaning regime anyway, using sanitiser on places such as door handles, hand rails, toilets and taps.

"The advice from the Department of Health and Social Care for travellers has changed over the last 24 hours to reflect the rapidly-changing situation in Italy. Recently updated guidance advises self-isolation for people who have returned since March 9, but as a safety precaution this advice is being extended to the pupils and staff who returned a day earlier."

PHE guidance on trips to Italy has changed in the last 24 hours.

Travellers who returned from areas of Northern Italy that were under containment measures between February 19 and March 8 2020 should self-isolate for 14 days. If they develop symptoms they should contact NHS111.

Travellers who returned from the rest of Italy before March 9 2020 do not need to undertake any special measures, but if they develop symptoms they should self-isolate and call NHS 111.

It is believed the Beaumont Leys School party returned on Sunday March 8.

 

 

 

Seems pretty daft to let them all attend school before sending them home. Isn't it about time all travels from highly infected countries are test on re-entry while you have them all in one place?

 

 

Stop talking a load of common sense

[stripeyfox]

49 minutes ago, rachhere said:

Can the training that you offer be delivered online? You are obviously a smart guy - I am guessing you are thinking of contingency plans already.

obviously?

 

(only joking Izzy)

[Alf Bentley]

Almost 1000 new infections & 168 deaths in Italy since yesterday: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

 

But we knew about Italy. This shows figures for all countries - and the trajectory in Spain, France & Switzerland, in particular, is a concern, not to mention Iran further afield: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

This seems to support @Jon the Hat's graphic projection

- 443 new cases & 5 deaths in Spain since yesterday

- 194 new cases in France

- Even higher figures in Iran (though less impact from Iran on UK, presumably). 

 

A lot of people have probably returned from France and Spain in the last couple of weeks, so given the tendency for this virus to spread despite many people having few or no symptoms when infected....

 

I wonder why the increase is much slower in Japan in Jon's graph? Social differences? Fewer visitors from other countries? Better response?

[The Horse's Mouth]

 

[martyn]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Almost 1000 new infections & 168 deaths in Italy since yesterday: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

 

But we knew about Italy. This shows figures for all countries - and the trajectory in Spain, France & Switzerland, in particular, is a concern, not to mention Iran further afield: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

This seems to support @Jon the Hat's graphic projection

- 443 new cases & 5 deaths in Spain since yesterday

- 194 new cases in France

- Even higher figures in Iran (though less impact from Iran on UK, presumably). 

 

A lot of people have probably returned from France and Spain in the last couple of weeks, so given the tendency for this virus to spread despite many people having few or no symptoms when infected....

 

I wonder why the increase is much slower in Japan in Jon's graph? Social differences? Fewer visitors from other countries? Better response?

Italy does not include Lombardy figures yet

[Jon the Hat]

27 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Almost 1000 new infections & 168 deaths in Italy since yesterday: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

 

But we knew about Italy. This shows figures for all countries - and the trajectory in Spain, France & Switzerland, in particular, is a concern, not to mention Iran further afield: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

This seems to support @Jon the Hat's graphic projection

- 443 new cases & 5 deaths in Spain since yesterday

- 194 new cases in France

- Even higher figures in Iran (though less impact from Iran on UK, presumably). 

 

A lot of people have probably returned from France and Spain in the last couple of weeks, so given the tendency for this virus to spread despite many people having few or no symptoms when infected....

 

I wonder why the increase is much slower in Japan in Jon's graph? Social differences? Fewer visitors from other countries? Better response?

Japan are doing a lot fewer tests

[Alf Bentley]

10 minutes ago, martyn said:

Italy does not include Lombardy figures yet

 

What's your source for that info?

 

Multiple media outlets are using those figures for Italy as a whole. They'd surely not quote figures for "Italy" and exclude the region where the outbreak is worst? 

[brucey]

2 hours ago, MPH said:

they might be getting it from relatives... of the 350+ cases ( so far) o my 6 have died so there’s lots of people beating this and lots who don’t have the underlying issues you mention

It takes 2-3 weeks to die on average, most of those 350 have only been diagnosed in the last week. We don’t know when those 6 were diagnosed, although from memory 2 of the 6 caught the virus in the UK (ie did not travel abroad). So could have been either a relative that travelled and gave it to them, or more worryingly they just picked it up from undetected community transmission.