Corona Virus

[bovril]

Also:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/21/english-death-rate-now-at-normal-winter-levels-as-coronavirus-deaths-fall

[the fox]

20 minutes ago, bovril said:

Just because of the reply to my post a couple of posts up, I looked up the 50,000 excess deaths figure to offer a source.

 

Apparently we had 50,000 excess deaths in the 2017/18 flu season. And I didn't even know about it until today. 

The seasonal flu doesn't even get 10% of the medical/media attention Corona got/gets imo. That number doesn't mean much tbh. How many people get the flu yearly? Would we say 3 billion? Let go for a low number like, 1 billion. 1℅ of that is 10 million and 10℅ of that is 100 million. 

 

12 minutes ago, bovril said:

Also:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/21/english-death-rate-now-at-normal-winter-levels-as-coronavirus-deaths-fall

 

People are less active, more aware of what they eat and increased their hygiene so you will have less mortalities from road accidents, food poisoning, seasonal flu, work-related accidents..etc so the numbers will obviously look better if someone puts it that way.

[yorkie1999]

5 hours ago, stix said:

We had a week shutdown at Easter, which has never happened before. Purely down to supply chain. It’s started to ease up abit now. Unfortunately though, when the business you work for puts all its eggs in RR basket, and then something like this happens, it’s a real uphill struggle. We’ve got service & maintenance teams permanently based up at RR in Derby, as the majority of the machines in their blade facility are our machines. There’s not much production going on up there at all. It’s not looking good for Civil Aviation and it’s supply chain this year. 

There were rumours going around that they were in the poo before the virus. There’s been an awful lot of redundancies over the last couple of years.

[Nod.E]

2 hours ago, bovril said:

Just because of the reply to my post a couple of posts up, I looked up the 50,000 excess deaths figure to offer a source.

 

Apparently we had 50,000 excess deaths in the 2017/18 flu season. And I didn't even know about it until today. 

And this is exactly my problem. 

 

Given hysteria and press coverage, the end of days scenario (which this is not) is allowed to play out, and the destructive fear that results wreaks it's havoc. Unnecessarily.

 

My mother, for instance, wants to know the death figure the moment it's out. It's understandable given the hype and some may argue validity based on a pandemic's potential to grow exponentially. However we know now that that's not going to be the case. She wasn't arsed about flu numbers, cancer numbers, heart disease numbers before this, and why would she be? But she and millions others cannot place a number like 36,000 and truly understand the significance (or insignificance) of that number.

 

It's like me telling the Mrs. I hit my first golf drive over 300 yards with excitement. The response I'd get is "Is that a lot?" Because there is no grounding or understanding of the number. However rather than asking "is that a lot", the average person in the street reacts with shock, with hysteria, disgust even. For some, perhaps because they think it's the kindest, most human response. For others purely an instinctive reaction to something potentially shocking. Alas I have not yet hit a drive over 300 yards, and people still tweet/speak before asking themselves a question or performing research.

 

You can't expect people to hear about 'thousands of deaths' and for them to contextualise that, unfortunately. People like me who shrug and say 'it's actually not that many' are called cold. I can understand how I may sound like a monster talking about lost lives so nonchalantly, and you'd never catch a politician talking in this vein because they know it triggers people and causes problems. But they do think it. These are just the facts of the matter. As you say, a similar scale thing happened a couple of years ago and nobody blinked an eye. 

 

Maybe I'm cynical but I'd wager the lockdown path winning out was more about PR than it was saving lives. I believe our government had the same beliefs as Sweden. Trouble is Brits are more, how can I say, 'Liverpool'. We love to feel outrage. It's a bit of a default setting for us. So really Boris and co didn't have a choice. I'm no Tory but I sympathise.

 

Of course it 'may' have been 'somewhat' worse without a lockdown 'in the short term', and it's worth saving lives etc etc, but I'm growing tired of how the outcome is being painted as a disaster of our time and how we should forever live in fear. 

 

The only thing I'm worried about is that at age 28 my generation grew up through a recession. As I (and others my age) now make decent strides in careers, we're about to be slapped back a notch or 5.

 

It's pretty intangible and difficult to measure but I already get the feeling that 'prosperous' isn't a word I'm going to be associating with life for some time. Fear doesn't mix with growth.

Edited 22 May 2020 by Nod.E

[Dahnsouff]

4 hours ago, Nod.E said:

Maybe I'm cynical but I'd wager the lockdown path winning out was more about PR than it was saving lives. I believe our government had the same beliefs as Sweden. Trouble is Brits are more, how can I say, 'Liverpool'. We love to feel outrage. It's a bit of a default setting for us..

It really is no wonder why the media produce so many outrage, shock, heart wrenching stories, it is just know they know their audience.

 

[Guest Markyblue]

5 hours ago, Nod.E said:

And this is exactly my problem. 

 

Given hysteria and press coverage, the end of days scenario (which this is not) is allowed to play out, and the destructive fear that results wreaks it's havoc. Unnecessarily.

 

My mother, for instance, wants to know the death figure the moment it's out. It's understandable given the hype and some may argue validity based on a pandemic's potential to grow exponentially. However we know now that that's not going to be the case. She wasn't arsed about flu numbers, cancer numbers, heart disease numbers before this, and why would she be? But she and millions others cannot place a number like 36,000 and truly understand the significance (or insignificance) of that number.

 

It's like me telling the Mrs. I hit my first golf drive over 300 yards with excitement. The response I'd get is "Is that a lot?" Because there is no grounding or understanding of the number. However rather than asking "is that a lot", the average person in the street reacts with shock, with hysteria, disgust even. For some, perhaps because they think it's the kindest, most human response. For others purely an instinctive reaction to something potentially shocking. Alas I have not yet hit a drive over 300 yards, and people still tweet/speak before asking themselves a question or performing research.

 

You can't expect people to hear about 'thousands of deaths' and for them to contextualise that, unfortunately. People like me who shrug and say 'it's actually not that many' are called cold. I can understand how I may sound like a monster talking about lost lives so nonchalantly, and you'd never catch a politician talking in this vein because they know it triggers people and causes problems. But they do think it. These are just the facts of the matter. As you say, a similar scale thing happened a couple of years ago and nobody blinked an eye. 

 

Maybe I'm cynical but I'd wager the lockdown path winning out was more about PR than it was saving lives. I believe our government had the same beliefs as Sweden. Trouble is Brits are more, how can I say, 'Liverpool'. We love to feel outrage. It's a bit of a default setting for us. So really Boris and co didn't have a choice. I'm no Tory but I sympathise.

 

Of course it 'may' have been 'somewhat' worse without a lockdown 'in the short term', and it's worth saving lives etc etc, but I'm growing tired of how the outcome is being painted as a disaster of our time and how we should forever live in fear. 

 

The only thing I'm worried about is that at age 28 my generation grew up through a recession. As I (and others my age) now make decent strides in careers, we're about to be slapped back a notch or 5.

 

It's pretty intangible and difficult to measure but I already get the feeling that 'prosperous' isn't a word I'm going to be associating with life for some time. Fear doesn't mix with growth.

There are plenty of scientists that believe we got it wrong in a full lockdown,  many believe that the most at risk should have been protected and the rest should have been SENSIBLE, but figures from imperial college forced the governments hand, not all scientists agree that is what many people don't grasp. The media has delighted in showing every scientist with doomsday predictions and almost completely ignored any scientists with more positive views,  bad news is good news for the media. 

[reynard]

8 hours ago, murphy said:

I didn't see that, I thought that was dated May 20th from the search results, so ignore it I wasn't trying to mislead.

 

I believe that Sweden now leads the way for deaths per million but a lot of the European countries aren't so different from each other.

 

The Swedish guy, forget his name without looking it up, reckons that whatever preventative measures are taken, looking back in a year's time we will see similar results everywhere.

 

 

For what it's worth the Uk now stands at 531 and Sweden at 387.

I'm not sure a league table of deaths per million really means much at all. It is clear mistakes have been made by many governments, including ours, whilst other countries such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and even Greece seem to have performed better for eg.. All seems to basically tie in  with how early and how tightly they locked down or simply have a better set up for track and trace.

Whether in the end they will still be seen to be the best performers only time will tell.

[st albans fox]

9 hours ago, bovril said:

Just because of the reply to my post a couple of posts up, I looked up the 50,000 excess deaths figure to offer a source.

 

Apparently we had 50,000 excess deaths in the 2017/18 flu season. And I didn't even know about it until today. 

50,000 excess deaths across a period nov/April ?   We’ve had 50k excess deaths across two months with a lockdown in place 
 

8 hours ago, bovril said:

Also:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/21/english-death-rate-now-at-normal-winter-levels-as-coronavirus-deaths-fall

it’s may .... and we’ve had a two month lockdown with social distancing being observed .......

 

the various  comments about allowing the virus to run its course (with vulnerable shielded) still avoid the sharp question of the NHS ITU being overwhelmed .......  people do recover from this after weeks of intensive hospital treatment and many after a week or so. the numbers who have antibodies in London (approx 1.8 million and rising as there is up to a four week lag to show ) illustrates just how contagious this thing is unchecked. even taking out the 25% asymptomatic leaves a scenario where hundreds of thousands would have required intensive hospital treatment had we followed that policy of allowing it to do its own thing ........

Edited 22 May 2020 by st albans fox

[worth_the_wait]

7 hours ago, Nod.E said:

Maybe I'm cynical but I'd wager the lockdown path winning out was more about PR than it was saving lives. I believe our government had the same beliefs as Sweden. Trouble is Brits are more, how can I say, 'Liverpool'. We love to feel outrage. It's a bit of a default setting for us. So really Boris and co didn't have a choice. I'm no Tory but I sympathise.

I would broadly agree with that.

 

Some weeks back, someone said we didn't have a plan,   We did, but we just lost our nerve when some big figure was thrown into the ring.

 

And then everyone (BBC, media, politicians, etc) started screaming blue murder that we weren't doing what the rest of Europe was doing.   How dare we not follow Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, etc ?

 

There was a Brexit-shaped elephant in the room, and I think our Government would've been absolutely annhilated if we had not followed the rest of Europe, and our death figures had been unexpectedly high.  (whatever the definition of "high" is).

[CosbehFox]

Using Sweden as an example is a fallacy. The government did not insist on a lockdown but its population adopted the behaviour required of it. They closed down the same places and the same events as the rest of Europe. 

[CosbehFox]

11 hours ago, Webbo said:

The longer the lock down lasts, the more economic damage is done. I hope the people saying there's no rush aren't complaining when there's 3 million unemployed. 

Cold face of it is some of us it’s a ‘rush’ to receive a redundancy notice. 
 

We are certain at our workplace that major projects will dry up and we’ve already had a £1.2 million roof refurbishment pulled.  
 

As soon as the worlds economy slowed down that was going to be in effect. Personally feel as though the damage is done 

[Guest Markyblue]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

50,000 excess deaths across a period nov/April ?   We’ve had 50k excess deaths across two months with a lockdown in place 
 

it’s may .... and we’ve had a two month lockdown with social distancing being observed .......

 

the various  comments about allowing the virus to run its course (with vulnerable shielded) still avoid the sharp question of the NHS ITU being overwhelmed .......  people do recover from this after weeks of intensive hospital treatment and many after a week or so. the numbers who have antibodies in London (approx 1.8 million and rising as there is up to a four week lag to show ) illustrates just how contagious this thing is unchecked. even taking out the 25% asymptomatic leaves a scenario where hundreds of thousands would have required intensive hospital treatment had we followed that policy of allowing it to do its own thing ........

There are experts who say we reached the peak of transmission before we went into lockdown, if this is the case i assume even without lockdown the numbers would have come down and the nhs wouldn't have been overwhelmed,  i really don't know as I'm certainly no expert. Imperials figures have been questioned as being absolutely worse case scenario by others. 

[davieG]

Coronavirus: Immune clue sparks treatment hope

By Victoria Gill & Rachael BuchananBBC News

 

UK scientists are to begin testing a treatment that it is hoped could counter the effects of Covid-19 in the most seriously ill patients.

It has been found those with the most severe form of the disease have extremely low numbers of an immune cell called a T-cell.

T-cells clear infection from the body.

The clinical trial will evaluate if a drug called interleukin 7, known to boost T-cell numbers, can aid patients' recovery.

It involves scientists from the Francis Crick Institute, King's College London and Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital.

They have looked at immune cells in the blood of 60 Covid-19 patients and found an apparent crash in the numbers of T-cells.

Prof Adrian Hayday from the Crick Institute said it was a "great surprise" to see what was happening with the immune cells.

"They're trying to protect us, but the virus seems to be doing something that's pulling the rug from under them, because their numbers have declined dramatically.

In a microlitre (0.001ml) drop of blood, normal healthy adults have between 2,000 and 4,000 T-cells, also called T lymphocytes.

The Covid patients the team tested had between 200-1,200.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52754280

[Webbo]

51 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Cold face of it is some of us it’s a ‘rush’ to receive a redundancy notice. 
 

We are certain at our workplace that major projects will dry up and we’ve already had a £1.2 million roof refurbishment pulled.  
 

As soon as the worlds economy slowed down that was going to be in effect. Personally feel as though the damage is done 

I think there's a lot in what say, and I can sympathise with that. 

[davieG]

Seaside resorts after yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

We really are a shitty, couldn't care less, selfish nation.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52754039

 

[fox_up_north]

I really hope this doesn't bring everything down but I just want to share this story.

 

I work with children in care. Not in the home but one of support and education networks. I have a lad I was seeing 3 days a week from November. Nice enough. Troubled, some run ins with the law and with a lot of growing up to do but a decent kid. He was always polite - even if he wasn't actually doing anything - and he always cleared up after himself. He'd go down to see his family for contact about once every 2-3 weeks and would often videocall them. He had a phone tariff paid for by a relative who used to be a primary carer for him before he came into the system due to neglect. 

 

About 6 weeks ago, that relative died of a quick cancer battle. The young lad hasn't been able to see his family, get as much video call time with them due to the drop in funds for his phone and hasn't had a funeral to go to. He's been mostly in the care home for the past six weeks, up in his room and not engaging with anything. It's been nearly 10 weeks since he's seen his family face to face. 

 

This morning I got a call and a report that he'd been urgently rushed in to the GP for self-harming. For a young lad into cars, football and getting up to mischief, this is completely unprecedented. He sent relatives a text that had a very definite and final tone to it. I'm glad he's ok and getting some support, but this is someone who's following the lockdown as set out by the government.

 

 

So this morning I don't know whether to cry for him or put my fist through the telly seeing images of people completely breaking the guidelines because they want to be by the sea. I'll admit to going out for exercise and not doing my 100% best to stay at least 2m away from people, but these people are on another level. The woman in the video above saying she drove from Leicester to Southend to get the "energy" of the sea. Give me a fuching break. 

 

And, yes, I am angry at the government. I'm angry at the mixed messages and the lax approach to it all. If people are flouting it then either clamp down or lift it entirely. Because stories of that young lad are only going to get worse. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Went into the doctors for an asthma review today @Alf Bentley and I was removed from severe around ten years ago as that's now only 4-5% of asthmatics who need regular and constant monitoring, as someone who has to just take a steroid inhaler morning and night I don't fall into it anymore.

 

Would have been nice of them to tell me though

 

I'm happy as I'm still in the "at risk" category, but not the "extreme risk" section.

[messerschmitt]

12 hours ago, bovril said:

Which has had around 50,000 excess deaths. There's no guarantees at the moment, I don't see what the rush is.

If this all ended now we are all facing an economic future like no other we have seen before. The great depression of the thirties will look like a tea party, given how economies are now linked much tighter the domino effect could be catastrophic. If we have another banking collapse could governments bail them out this time. We could even get to that unthinkable, hyperinflation, massive food shortages, famine and a breakdown in society.

Every day this goes on the economic future becomes more precarious. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

12 minutes ago, davieG said:

Seaside resorts after yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

We really are a shitty, couldn't care less, selfish nation.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52754039

 

I call it the “me society”, selfish, rude and ignorant.

[bovril]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

50,000 excess deaths across a period nov/April ?   We’ve had 50k excess deaths across two months with a lockdown in place 
 

it’s may .... and we’ve had a two month lockdown with social distancing being observed .......

 

I agree with you. I just thought it was interesting that the '50,000' excess deaths sounds huge, yet wasn't really reported 2 years ago. 

 

I  am glad I'm not the one making the decisions because on the one hand I see the damage this virus has done around the world but on the other I agree that the lockdown fallout could be even worse. Impossible situation.  

[foxfanazer]

On the debate of people going to beaches I'm a little bit undecided. I'm living in Norfolk where there's a fair few beaches to visit. I wouldn't even contemplate going to Hunstanton, Yarmouth etc. I do feel like I could go to the likes of Sheringham, Wells and Cromer and quite easily adhere to social distancing so I don't really feel like that would be doing any harm. Not saying that I'm going to but can't say I agree with the outrage to those who do similar

Edited 22 May 2020 by foxfanazer

[urban.spaceman]

 

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

I call it the “me society”, selfish, rude and ignorant.

I call it "the society of self", and the exact same ar$eholes live their too

[bovril]

5 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

On the debate of people going to beaches I'm a little bit undecided. I'm living in Norfolk where there's a fair few beaches to visit. I wouldn't even contemplate going to Hunstanton, Yarmouth etc. I do feel like I could go to the likes of Sheringham, Wells and Cromer and quite easily adhere to social distancing so I don't really feel like that would be doing any harm. Not saying that I'm going to but can't say I agree with the outrage 

Go up to Holme. Beautiful beach and plenty of space.

[foxfanazer]

Just now, bovril said:

Go up to Holme. Beautiful beach and plenty of space.

I think I meant Holme instead of Wells actually. I'm a massive fan of Sheringham tbh