Coronavirus Thread

[The People's Hero]

2 hours ago, reynard said:

I'd really like someone with a good understanding of the medical science to explain how we have come to the conclusion that this is the best way forwards when the manufacturers of the Pfizer vaccine say themselves that they do not know how efficient the vaccine will be without the second jab taking place after three weeks. As far as I understand it no clinical trials have been run to explore this particular use of this vaccine or indeed the Oxford vaccine. I see the latter has only been approved for two full doses rather than the lower dose followed by the higher dose as there were not enough samples in the trial to ensure efficacy for older people or indeed not enough numbers of people undergoing the trial in this way. Yet all of a sudden we seem to be saying that people really only need one vaccination and that a second jab can be delayed three months.

I think there needs to be a clear statement a to how this has come to be the new approach when no clinical trials to explore this methodology have been undertaken. If the Oxford vaccine offers only 60% protection (still decent I know) how much less does it offer with just one dose and does that decline over the three months?

I'm not saying there is any conspiracy here at all or that the vaccine isn't any good but clarity  is required.

The Gov are gambling to get more people vaccinated at the possible/likely damage to the efficacy of the vaccine for those people.

 

Its a gamble, as I say, and you'd normally like to believe an 'educated/informed guess' but the scientific response suggests they've gone in 'blind' on this, with fingers crossed.

 

I probably would have favoured sticking with the 3 week gap whilst continuing to prioritise the elderly and vulnerable on the basis that everyone else can wait, and I think most would be happy to wait longer, to get an effective vaccine.

 

Emotive subject as you can gamble with economic / social policy etc and it effectively comes down to 'politics' and in any case the direction gets adjusted periodically depending on the colour of the tie the PM wears and the populist politics of the times; but gambling with the health of the nation is naturally something that people feel a bit uncomfortable with.

 

Let's hope it works. 

[reynard]

15 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

They are trialling it now.  We are living the trial.  There have been no tests at all to say how long apart is the ideal time, they used 3 weeks as a theoretical span and got 85% efficiency on 1 dose and 95% on two doses 3 weeks apart.  In real life, they could do preliminary trials with different periods to see if it makes any difference and to test the robustness of the sample.  There was no time to do this.

 

But what they have got is a vast array of data now, which I have little doubt they are analysing fully.  At present, about 1 in 1,000 of the adult population is being tested each day.  They are presumably, as part of the test, asking (1) have you been vaccinated, and (2) when.

 

By 27th December, nearly a million people had received their first jab.  By 17th January, therefore, nearly a million people will have had at least three weeks since their first jab.  They will know how many of those people are positively tested on 17th January - based purely on averages, on the current figures, it should be 1 in 1,000 which is 1,000 people.

 

So (with adjustments, no doubt, for age-specific positive tests) they know how many people would be expected to get the virus if the jab does nothing, how many have actually got the virus, and what the percentage success is.  If they expect 1,000 and get 150, there's the 85% success rate.

 

And this data is coming in every day, and increasing all the time.  By the end of January, there will be two or three million people to look at.  They will know if the longer delay isn't working and will be able to change plans on the hoof.  This decision has not been set in stone till March - it is being reviewed daily.

Well the Pfizer vaccine was authorised based on the scientific study over many months of volunteers who had received the full vaccine course ie 2 shots. It was not approved for use on the ad hoc provision of a live ongoing trial using some of the most vulnerable members of society as guinea pigs.

Aslo I doubt very many of those vaccinated so far have been amongst those most likely to be mixing socially or indeed going shopping. Those that I know who have been given it have been locked up self isolating for many months and were not intending to do anything else until they had received their second dose and then waited the week for it to become fully effective.

I understand what you are saying but there are serious moral and ethical questions this Government needs to address as well as the science.

[The People's Hero]

1 minute ago, reynard said:

Well the Pfizer vaccine was authorised based on the scientific study over many months of volunteers who had received the full vaccine course ie 2 shots. It was not approved for use on the ad hoc provision of a live ongoing trial using some of the most vulnerable members of society as guinea pigs.

Aslo I doubt very many of those vaccinated so far have been amongst those most likely to be mixing socially or indeed going shopping. Those that I know who have been given it have been locked up self isolating for many months and were not intending to do anything else until they had received their second dose and then waited the week for it to become fully effective.

I understand what you are saying but there are serious moral and ethical questions this Government needs to address as well as the science.

Agree with this. Certain moral and ethical questions will loom large, and continue to, even if it works; since the truth is, they simply don't know.

[reynard]

9 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

There is no doubt the vaccine has 90 % minimum efficacy with the original viral strain of Corona it’s just whether it can deal with this new strain , vaccines can be attenuated but these take time! And need to be trialled again before being approved. So it could delay the process.

I'm not sure it would need to be re-approved as long as the basic vaccine remained the same. I don't believe we approve each new flu vaccine after trials. I suspect that if the vaccines continue to work the likely scenario is that it will need to be constantly altered.

[dsr-burnley]

18 minutes ago, reynard said:

Well the Pfizer vaccine was authorised based on the scientific study over many months of volunteers who had received the full vaccine course ie 2 shots. It was not approved for use on the ad hoc provision of a live ongoing trial using some of the most vulnerable members of society as guinea pigs.

Aslo I doubt very many of those vaccinated so far have been amongst those most likely to be mixing socially or indeed going shopping. Those that I know who have been given it have been locked up self isolating for many months and were not intending to do anything else until they had received their second dose and then waited the week for it to become fully effective.

I understand what you are saying but there are serious moral and ethical questions this Government needs to address as well as the science.

They will no doubt be adjusting the figures for the age of population.  I used round numbers for illustration purposes, but the actual figures used by the professional statisticians will be adjusted for the demographic.

 

They've been addressing serious moral and ethical issues since day 1.  there is no perfect solution, and while it would be easier to say £this is the imperfect solution that gets us least criticism, so let that be the deciding factor" they have taken the perhaps courageous (Humphry Appleby's most frightening word!) decision to go off-book, so to speak.

[Pliskin]

37 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

If restrictions within the UK last until 2022 it means the vaccine does not work.  There's a cheery thought for the new year!

I think it’s more proceed with caution more than anything. They won’t know if it’s working until the numbers drastically reduce, this will take a few months this to determine, most of the vaccinating probably won’t be complete until about March, April time for which the they will probably need a few months to see if they have had an impact. So perhaps by the summer we may start to see the decline in numbers. But even then I think there will be certain restrictions in place until they’re 100% convinced the vaccine has done enough to allow large crowds to gather again. 
 

So I think by December we may see this, the next stage is important, and far too important to rush. There’s still potential that the vaccine doesn’t work like they want it too....

[Stivo]

3 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

They are presumably, as part of the test, asking (1) have you been vaccinated, and (2) when.

Great post and happy new year.
 

One significant advantage the uk has is that we all have nhs numbers which can be used to track such things.  ( ie they don’t need to ask the information is already  recorded)

 

Here is a link to details of the NHS tracking system ( the link says flu but it has been extended for COVID when you get there)

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/contact-us/privacy-notice/national-flu-vaccination-programme/

 

Edited 1 January 2021 by Stivo
Added link to tracking system

[martyn]

I suspect the reason they have changed the vaccine programme is because they've lost control of the virus and it's now harder than it was previously to slow the spread.

 

We've now got a new more transmissible variant and we are starting from a very high case baseline. It's now a calculated risk to vaccinate more people with 1 dose, and then hope it provides enough immunity to reduce the need for hospitalisation. 

 

It's going to be a grim few months.

[StanSP]

 

[reynard]

55 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

A snap quote from it

Irrespective of the relative prominence of the variant among children the prevalence of the variant is greatest among 10-19 yrs among those tested.... if infection in children is not curbed, the new variant will likely rapidly become dominant in adults as well, and potentially lead to even more rapid spread of infection in older groups where infection is more likely to be deadly & create further pressure on the NHS

 

Does make you question the wisdom of re-opening secondary schools right now.

[Nalis]

11 minutes ago, reynard said:

A snap quote from it

Irrespective of the relative prominence of the variant among children the prevalence of the variant is greatest among 10-19 yrs among those tested.... if infection in children is not curbed, the new variant will likely rapidly become dominant in adults as well, and potentially lead to even more rapid spread of infection in older groups where infection is more likely to be deadly & create further pressure on the NHS

 

Does make you question the wisdom of re-opening secondary schools right now.

True.

 

I get the idea of not hindering the education of kids, especially poorer children, but even having remote teaching for the month of January while we go into mass vaccinated mode would buy time for the NHS.

Edited 1 January 2021 by Nalis

[Sly]

Any confirmation yet that the approved vaccines tackle the new strain? 

[dsr-burnley]

Just now, Sly said:

Any confirmation yet that the approved vaccines tackle the new strain? 

There has been no reports of anyone getting both variants, which suggests that anyone protected from one is also protected from the other.

[Parafox]

12 hours ago, filbertway said:

People that were shocked that we werent back to normality already

Oh right. The dim and the stupid, then.

[reynard]

9 minutes ago, Sly said:

Any confirmation yet that the approved vaccines tackle the new strain? 

Van Tam said the labs, presumably at Porton Down, are working on it right now but it would be two weeks before we know..

[Corky]

17 minutes ago, Nalis said:

True.

 

I get the idea of not hindering the education of kids, especially poorer children, but even having remote teaching for the month of January while we go into mass vaccinated mode would buy time for the NHS.

You can't have it all ways, really. I don't want schools to shut to stop children learning but if the variant is prominent in a particular age group you need to shut down avenues of potential spread. Teachers and staff need to be thought of, too.

 

The days of not inconveniencing people have long gone- we're all facing it in some way. If schools or schoolchildren are spreaders and spreading grounds, you need to act.

[Dahnsouff]

2 minutes ago, Corky said:

You can't have it all ways, really. I don't want schools to shut to stop children learning but if the variant is prominent in a particular age group you need to shut down avenues of potential spread. Teachers and staff need to be thought of, too.

 

The days of not inconveniencing people have long gone- we're all facing it in some way. If schools or schoolchildren are spreaders and spreading grounds, you need to act.

Agree, just want to see the evidence and no more panic measures to reassure the vocal minority.

[reynard]

17 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

So you would rather they say July, even if they genuinely believe it could be Easter? 

I would rather they be honest with us rather than trying to paint as rosy a picture of the situation they can. So far they haven't lived up to anything the have said/promised/ or however you want to phrase it. Schools would open in July for eg. Failed so now we have a dogmatic policy they don't want to rethink just to save political face but are being dragged kicking and screaming down the rething road due to overwhelming stastistics. Then there was the whole Christmas farce.

I appreciate they are in a difficult situation but they really don't do themselves any favours by keep on saying things which turn out to be not deliverable time after time after time. It just starts to look like incompetence. Let's take this latest things will be better by Easter stuff. It is just a soundbite. Put some flesh on the bones here and say by what measurement they believe things will be better. ie what are they hoping to achieve so they can say things will be better. What is their target for vaccination for example? This is already looking fudged and not deliverable just as the test and track and overall testing regimes have not been.

We were told there were 4 million Oxford vaccines in the country ready to go, turns out there are half a million.

A government should provide clarity not just fudged together random hopes and soundbites.  Come out now and say how many people they want to vaccinate by when but at least keep it within the bounds of reason.

There are estimated to be 32 million at risk people needing to be vaccinated of which we have done around 1 million. There are almost exactly thirteen weeks to Easter which would require us to vaccinate 2.4 million people each week and more the further we go into that period as those at the start would be getting close to the 12 week limit for the second jab. The truth is we are going to be in a mess for a long time after Easter but the Government just don't want to admit that.

Edited 1 January 2021 by reynard

[Crinklyfox]

For information - the latest Imperial College report (dated 31 December) puts the R value for the new variant between 1.4 and 1.8 for a recently observed period.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/

[Col city fan]

46 minutes ago, reynard said:

I would rather they be honest with us rather than trying to paint as rosy a picture of the situation they can. So far they haven't lived up to anything the have said/promised/ or however you want to phrase it. Schools would open in July for eg. Failed so now we have a dogmatic policy they don't want to rethink just to save political face but are being dragged kicking and screaming down the rething road due to overwhelming stastistics. Then there was the whole Christmas farce.

I appreciate they are in a difficult situation but they really don't do themselves any favours by keep on saying things which turn out to be not deliverable time after time after time. It just starts to look like incompetence. Let's take this latest things will be better by Easter stuff. It is just a soundbite. Put some flesh on the bones here and say by what measurement they believe things will be better. ie what are they hoping to achieve so they can say things will be better. What is their target for vaccination for example? This is already looking fudged and not deliverable just as the test and track and overall testing regimes have not been.

We were told there were 4 million Oxford vaccines in the country ready to go, turns out there are half a million.

A government should provide clarity not just fudged together random hopes and soundbites.  Come out now and say how many people they want to vaccinate by when but at least keep it within the bounds of reason.

There are estimated to be 32 million at risk people needing to be vaccinated of which we have done around 1 million. There are almost exactly thirteen weeks to Easter which would require us to vaccinate 2.4 million people each week and more the further we go into that period as those at the start would be getting close to the 12 week limit for the second jab. The truth is we are going to be in a mess for a long time after Easter but the Government just don't want to admit that.

@Alf Bentley put this very well earlier in the thread and it rang true with me

Boris seems to want to portray himself as the bearer of good news. Hence all the sound bites we’ve had

I wonder whether this approach kind of glosses over some of the mistakes the government have made?

To my mind, one of the biggest was coming out of lockdown and into the tiered system in early December. This was potty really. We literally came out of lockdown at a time when the r rate was still increasing... and now look what’s happened. Lockdown imo should have been in situ until after Christmas Imo

There’s been lots of this though... from the clapping of the NHS, to lots of phrases (eg hands, face, space) and so on...

I think what we’ve really needed are absolutely clear rules, a test and trace system that actually worked and honest appraisals of how long this bloody thing could last for

I don’t think we need ‘joviality’ from Boris and the government. We decide on our own ways of getting through this pandemic and if really well informed, I think people will generally understand how good or bad things are and will ‘plough on’ accordingly

I don’t think it’s been very well led and coordinated personally although tbh I don’t envy any government who has tried to do this in contemporary Britain 

[Dr The Singh]

19 hours ago, Parafox said:

Ladyboys? For your sake, I hope so 

When you get to my age, young man, a warm body is a bonus

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9102333/SAGE-warns-March-style-lockdown-not-contain-mutant-Covid.html

 

'Scientists today said they expect relentless lockdown cycle to carry on through spring and into summer 2021'

[yorkie1999]

8 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

When you get to my age, young man, a warm body is a bonus

Especially if it’s your own

[Pliskin]

2 hours ago, reynard said:

I would rather they be honest with us rather than trying to paint as rosy a picture of the situation they can. So far they haven't lived up to anything the have said/promised/ or however you want to phrase it. Schools would open in July for eg. Failed so now we have a dogmatic policy they don't want to rethink just to save political face but are being dragged kicking and screaming down the rething road due to overwhelming stastistics. Then there was the whole Christmas farce.

I appreciate they are in a difficult situation but they really don't do themselves any favours by keep on saying things which turn out to be not deliverable time after time after time. It just starts to look like incompetence. Let's take this latest things will be better by Easter stuff. It is just a soundbite. Put some flesh on the bones here and say by what measurement they believe things will be better. ie what are they hoping to achieve so they can say things will be better. What is their target for vaccination for example? This is already looking fudged and not deliverable just as the test and track and overall testing regimes have not been.

We were told there were 4 million Oxford vaccines in the country ready to go, turns out there are half a million.

A government should provide clarity not just fudged together random hopes and soundbites.  Come out now and say how many people they want to vaccinate by when but at least keep it within the bounds of reason.

There are estimated to be 32 million at risk people needing to be vaccinated of which we have done around 1 million. There are almost exactly thirteen weeks to Easter which would require us to vaccinate 2.4 million people each week and more the further we go into that period as those at the start would be getting close to the 12 week limit for the second jab. The truth is we are going to be in a mess for a long time after Easter but the Government just don't want to admit that.

This is very true. And it’s one of the main reasons I’m so fed up of these clowns. There’s been no clarity to any of their plans due to their constant moving of goalposts and failures to deliver..... the track and trace was laughable, It’s been one failure after another, and worst yet whenever the actual medical experts look to advise they try and restrict them best then can. 
 

Its been a shambles, and they need to start being to the point, if we’re going to be like this for most of 2021, they need to come out and say it, because as things stand businesses and people are having to second guess, what is going to happen and we can’t live like that. 
 

In times like these you need leadership, there has been none, everything this government has done has been a reaction and a late one, it is a time for proactive leadership, not knee jerk decisions that often end in disaster.

Edited 1 January 2021 by Pliskin

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, reynard said:

I would rather they be honest with us rather than trying to paint as rosy a picture of the situation they can. So far they haven't lived up to anything the have said/promised/ or however you want to phrase it. Schools would open in July for eg. Failed so now we have a dogmatic policy they don't want to rethink just to save political face but are being dragged kicking and screaming down the rething road due to overwhelming stastistics. Then there was the whole Christmas farce.

I appreciate they are in a difficult situation but they really don't do themselves any favours by keep on saying things which turn out to be not deliverable time after time after time. It just starts to look like incompetence. Let's take this latest things will be better by Easter stuff. It is just a soundbite. Put some flesh on the bones here and say by what measurement they believe things will be better. ie what are they hoping to achieve so they can say things will be better. What is their target for vaccination for example? This is already looking fudged and not deliverable just as the test and track and overall testing regimes have not been.

We were told there were 4 million Oxford vaccines in the country ready to go, turns out there are half a million.

A government should provide clarity not just fudged together random hopes and soundbites.  Come out now and say how many people they want to vaccinate by when but at least keep it within the bounds of reason.

There are estimated to be 32 million at risk people needing to be vaccinated of which we have done around 1 million. There are almost exactly thirteen weeks to Easter which would require us to vaccinate 2.4 million people each week and more the further we go into that period as those at the start would be getting close to the 12 week limit for the second jab. The truth is we are going to be in a mess for a long time after Easter but the Government just don't want to admit that.

 

3 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

This is very true. And it’s one of the main reasons I’m so fed up of these clowns. There’s been no clarity to any of their plans due to their constant moving of goalposts and failures to deliver..... the track and trace was laughable, It’s been one failure after another, and worst yet whenever the actual medical experts look too advise they try and restrict them best then can. 
 

Its been a shambles, and they need to start being to the point, if we’re going to be like this for most of 2021, they need to come out any say it, because as things stand businesses and people are having to second guess, what is going to happen and we can’t live like that. 
 

In times like these you need leadership, there has been none, everything this government has done has been a reaction and a late one, it is a time for proactive leadership, not knee jerk decisions that often end in disaster.

Spot on in both counts.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, it's human nature, but they keep getting figures wrong, they keep getting timeframes wrong, they've got so much wrong since day 1, and some of it is basic stuff. How can they keep getting the number of predicted vaccinations so spectacularly wrong?!